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If the Sox are serious about rebuilding


hawksox13
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If the Sox are truly going to go young and try to rebuild this thing from the bottom up, they've got to find a way to shed some of their bad contracts. Nobody is going to be dumb enough to take on the salary of Rios, Peavy, or Dunn straight up, but would it be an option for the Sox to pair up some attractive players with these bad contracts in an attempt to free up some money?

 

What I'm talking about is pairing Danks with Rios and trying to get rid of Rios that way. I think there would be a few teams out there that could afford to take Rios as part of this deal. Both the Red Sox and Yankees desperately need pitching. Would they be willing to make this type of move? Yes, you aren't going to get the level of prospects back that you would if you just dealt Danks straight up, but is losing Rios' contract worth giving up on the prospect side of the deal?

 

Again, I'm just trying to think of ways to accelerate getting these bad contracts off the books so the Sox can finally begin moving in the right direction. Having Peavy, Rios, and Dunn completely kills any shot at being competitive for the next three years or so. Extremely expensive guys that give you nothing just kills you unless you are Boston or New York.

 

A couple other "pairings" that the Sox could try would be Gavin Floyd with Adam Dunn or Carlos Quentin with Jake Peavy. I'm just looking at the next three years and see no way the Sox are going to be competitive.

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They arent really rebuilding, especially since you have large veteran salaries that you cannot move or replace. They are more restructuring by moving some movable players and replacing them with lower cost alternatives that hopefully have the same or greater production.

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I truly believe the Sox will be better off in the long run keeping the bad contracts and projectionable players, versus pairing them together to get rid of the bad contracts. Our odds of bouncing back are much better with Dunn, Peavy, and Rios on the along with guys like Viciedo, Ramirez, Reed, etc. We would literally be running Charlotte out there otherwise.

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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 17, 2011 -> 02:20 PM)
They arent really rebuilding, especially since you have large veteran salaries that you cannot move or replace. They are more restructuring by moving some movable players and replacing them with lower cost alternatives that hopefully have the same or greater production.

 

You're completely right. I guess I'm saying I don't like the restructuring idea and think that'll just put them right where they were this year, around 75-80 wins and not competing for anything. I'd rather them blow it up, shed these terrible salaries, and start moving forward because with Rios, Dunn, and Peavy, this team will never compete for a championship. Those three eat up too high of a percentage of the available payroll to be able to add any significant pieces around them.

 

So let me reshape this and ask if it's reasonable to think that a team may bite at a Rios/Danks type of combination. I just need some hope that we won't be putting up with a team that simply cannot be better than mediocre for the next three plus years. My fear is that this team just goes through the motions for the next three seasons and then rebuilds after that, essentially giving us no competitive baseball team for the next five or six years. Or do I just need to face those facts?

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QUOTE (hawksox13 @ Oct 17, 2011 -> 02:26 PM)
You're completely right. I guess I'm saying I don't like the restructuring idea and think that'll just put them right where they were this year, around 75-80 wins and not competing for anything. I'd rather them blow it up, shed these terrible salaries, and start moving forward because with Rios, Dunn, and Peavy, this team will never compete for a championship. Those three eat up too high of a percentage of the available payroll to be able to add any significant pieces around them.

 

So let me reshape this and ask if it's reasonable to think that a team may bite at a Rios/Danks type of combination. I just need some hope that we won't be putting up with a team that simply cannot be better than mediocre for the next three plus years. My fear is that this team just goes through the motions for the next three seasons and then rebuilds after that, essentially giving us no competitive baseball team for the next five or six years. Or do I just need to face those facts?

 

If we include the players that we would need to include to make those types of deals happen, there would be nothing left to rebuild with.

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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 17, 2011 -> 02:28 PM)
You need to understand that blowing it up and "rebuilding" gives you virtually no guarantee of being competitive. The Royals are still rebuilding, and rebuilding, and rebuilding.

 

I understand that rebuilding doesn't guarantee anything. But anybody who thinks the Sox are simply going to retool and be right back in the mix next season isn't seeing clearly. Peavy is a shell of what he once was and will never be that again, Rios just doesn't care to be good, and Dunn has lost all confidence. If Dunn starts slowly next year he'll be in the tank for the entire season. The only way he bounces back is if he comes out hot. Otherwise, it'll be more of what we saw this season.

 

I'm okay with the Sox being bad for a season or two if it means they are heading in the right direction. Currently, I feel like they are in tread water mode. That's not a good place to be.

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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 17, 2011 -> 02:20 PM)
They arent really rebuilding, especially since you have large veteran salaries that you cannot move or replace. They are more restructuring by moving some movable players and replacing them with lower cost alternatives that hopefully have the same or greater production.

 

They can't truly rebuild because of the Peavy/Dunn/Rios salaries that strangle the club's payroll.

 

If they move Danks and Floyd and Buerhle signs elsewhere, it's hard for me to believe they aren't rebuilding, no matter what they say.

 

I agree it's more of a restructuring if they move Quentin to free a spot for Viceido, but it's hard for me to see this team competing if they lose Buerhle, Floyd and/or Danks and replace them with young talent. It may be good moves for the long run, provided that they acquire talent that pans out, but it makes it hard to compete in the near term.

 

Realistically, I think the goal of the White Sox will be to shed $20-$30 million this off-season and acquire as much young talent as possible.

 

 

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QUOTE (hawksox13 @ Oct 17, 2011 -> 02:40 PM)
I understand that rebuilding doesn't guarantee anything. But anybody who thinks the Sox are simply going to retool and be right back in the mix next season isn't seeing clearly. Peavy is a shell of what he once was and will never be that again, Rios just doesn't care to be good, and Dunn has lost all confidence. If Dunn starts slowly next year he'll be in the tank for the entire season. The only way he bounces back is if he comes out hot. Otherwise, it'll be more of what we saw this season.

 

I'm okay with the Sox being bad for a season or two if it means they are heading in the right direction. Currently, I feel like they are in tread water mode. That's not a good place to be.

 

Peavy is gone after this year. It is not worth packaging him with a piece of the future to get rid of him. Seeing what Dunn was for the last 10 years, I am not wanting to sell low on him, especially not at the price of on of our top prospects. Rios with the time on his deal, might be worth considering, but I really doubt the Sox explore this sort of a deal. The biggest deal I can think of like this involved Miguel Cabrera in his prime, which the sox have on one like that to trade.

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QUOTE (hawksox13 @ Oct 17, 2011 -> 03:40 PM)
I understand that rebuilding doesn't guarantee anything. But anybody who thinks the Sox are simply going to retool and be right back in the mix next season isn't seeing clearly. Peavy is a shell of what he once was and will never be that again, Rios just doesn't care to be good, and Dunn has lost all confidence. If Dunn starts slowly next year he'll be in the tank for the entire season. The only way he bounces back is if he comes out hot. Otherwise, it'll be more of what we saw this season.

 

I'm okay with the Sox being bad for a season or two if it means they are heading in the right direction. Currently, I feel like they are in tread water mode. That's not a good place to be.

It's certainly plausible that the Sox will compete next year. Peavy was coming back from a previously unknown surgery and if you just imagine the Tommy John recovery timetable, he might be closer to full strength next year. Dunn, Beckham, and Rios need to get their heads in the game...however it is done (that's all on the manager at this point). If most of those things go well next year and some of the young guys hit, contending is entirely possible.

 

Contending is less likely next year than it was with this year's roster coming in to the season, almost no matter what happens. But the complete flops of Beckham, Dunn, Danks, and Rios, and the uselessness of guys like Pierre and Thornton early in the season, all happening in the same year...I'd have put the odds of that happening as lower than the odds of the Sox competing next year.

 

All that said...Maybe keep a couple veterans like Konerko and M-56 who are producing and who I'd pay to see. Plug in the youth that we have around them. Clear out the guys who are about to hit FA. Run that team out, with the guys who struggled this year. If the team fails to contend but 1 of them turns it around...then maybe moving a majority of that guy's contract becomes possible.

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Unfortunately, the Sox are stuck with 3 bad contracts and that's why they have to play them out. If it was just one they could make a dump and move on. But, with these 3 they would end up paying th emajority of the contracts and not getting quality young talent in return.

 

Odds are about 50/50 that Peavy stays healthy and picthes above league average for the year. That would be a help but not worth anywhere near the $ 21 mil. but then they can say goodbye.

 

Rios is the big question mark because he is capable for fulfilling the contract like he did in 2010. He may play a few more good years or close to it and the Sox could be okay here- probably about 50% chance.

 

Dunn, there's no chance that he makes his deal look even close to good during any of the next 3 years. If he managed to hit .210 with 25 home runs that would be considered a comeback and that's pathetic. This money is gone.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 08:28 AM)
I think there is an outside chance that the Yankees or Red Sox would take Rios along with Danks if they are desperate enough for pitching and miss out on other targets.

 

Nobody is taking Dunn or Peavy.

 

That does us no good. We need the players we get from a Danks trade more than we need to move Rios salary.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 09:34 AM)
That does us no good. We need the players we get from a Danks trade more than we need to move Rios salary.

That would depend on what we did with the money.

 

That said...signing someone for that $10 million would be a step in the 2011 direction.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 09:28 AM)
I think there is an outside chance that the Yankees or Red Sox would take Rios along with Danks if they are desperate enough for pitching and miss out on other targets.

 

Nobody is taking Dunn or Peavy.

Also have to figure though...D1 had a really down season which hurts, he's getting expensive himself so that's a $20 million commitment...Boston in particular already has a ton of bad money on their roster, and the Yankees recently seem to avoid pushing hard to add guys that would be problems.

 

The right move is just to play him in April and see what happens...but have the leash very short.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 09:38 AM)
It would go towards paying the guys we have now, which you already know.

If you move both Rios and Danks, that drops the total salary to $100 mil this year, and I don't know what Trader Kenny will do with that scratch. I actually think he'd be tempted to spend it.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 08:39 AM)
If you move both Rios and Danks, that drops the total salary to $100 mil this year, and I don't know what Trader Kenny will do with that scratch. I actually think he'd be tempted to spend it.

 

He might pick up a part or two, but all indications are that the payroll will shrink by a noticeable amount.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 10:06 AM)
If moving Rios' salary allows the sox to keep Quentin, then Quentin is better than what the Sox get from trading Danks.

There's a real decent chance that if the Sox keep quentin, a random AA baller gotten in return for Danks will contribute more to this team next year than Quentin. That's just how fragile he's proven to be.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 18, 2011 -> 09:06 AM)
If moving Rios' salary allows the sox to keep Quentin, then Quentin is better than what the Sox get from trading Danks.

 

The Danks trade isn't going to be about money this year. It is about 2013 and beyond. If they aren't close on an extension, they are trading him, and rightfully so.

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