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Is De Aza an ideal leadoff hitter?

November 11, 2011, 12:56 pm

 

 

JJ STANKEVITZ

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Color me confused. Exactly why has there been speculation that the White Sox won't start 2012 with Alejandro De Aza leading off in their batting order?

 

What more can De Aza do? In a small sample size -- one that should've been larger last year -- he posted a .400 OBP and walked about one in every 10 plate appearances. If you're of the belief that speed is a necessary component of a leadoff hitter, De Aza swiped 12 of 17 bases last season.

 

De Aza's not just a replacement for Juan Pierre. He's a major improvement.

 

As Jim Margalus of South Side Sox pointed out, some speculation has arisen that the Sox will look to sign a free agent to lead off, sending De Aza or Dayan Viciedo to the bench. For a team that needs to cut payroll, doing that wouldn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

Right now, the White Sox outfield should shape up for 2011 with De Aza in left, Alex Rios in center and Dayan Viciedo in right. Dealing Carlos Quentin would free up money and space for Viciedo, who brings his bevy of offensive potential at an inexpensive price tag. Rios probably isn't going anywhere -- not even to the bench. The Sox have a lot of money invested in him, so they might as well find out if his 2011 struggles were an aberration or a trend.

 

But if the Sox do decide to cut their losses with Rios and send him to the bench to start the season, signing an outfielder does make a little more sense. David DeJesus is coming off an awful season with Oakland, but the former Royal boasts a .356 OBP over the course of his career. A cheap, one-year deal with him could make some sense -- but he's not the kind of player you sign to block Viciedo, as he probably would if Rios starts.

 

The Sox don't need to do that, though. The outfield, with De Aza in left and leading off and Viciedo in right batting in the middle of the other, is as good as it can be with Rios in center.

Jim Margalus has noted this plenty as well. It's ridiculous that many of the beat writers have been noting De Aza as not ideal, or non traditional as a lead-off hitter. He's more f***ing ideal than Juan Terrible Pierre. The White Sox beat-writers are awful. Truly a shame that Ballantini was the one canned.

Edited November 14, 201114 yr by DirtySox

No, the ideal thing would have been for him to put up those same numbers with us at age 23, so that everyone would agree that he's starting and leading off on day 1 of next year.

I liked De Aza in the small "sample size" we saw last year, but we have been burned before with seeing someone play half a season or less and then annoint them to a starters role. Regardless this off season should be very interesting. I am sure De Aza will be in that there line up somewhere. I don't really think anyone else is on the team that could fill that roll right now

Edited November 14, 201114 yr by elrockinMT

27 year old rookies (or close to it) don't tend to all the sudden figure it out. However, I think Scotty Pods was even older than that when he broke through, and he enjoyed a decent prime.

 

This is definitely going to be a "wait and see" situation.

I want De Aza leading off and playing CF too.

 

Keep Quentin add Viciedo.

I want De Aza leading off and playing CF too.

 

Keep Quentin add Viciedo.

 

I agree completely with your first sentence. And while I agree with your second sentence as well, it's not going to happen as nobody will take Rios and no team will bench a guy earning that much right out of the gate.

27 year old rookies (or close to it) don't tend to all the sudden figure it out. However, I think Scotty Pods was even older than that when he broke through, and he enjoyed a decent prime.

 

This is definitely going to be a "wait and see" situation.

Why do you say anything about him "Figuring it out"?

 

He nearly destroyed his leg. That's his excuse, there was no "3 years of minor league struggling" or anything like that.

 

He hit .278 or above and put up a .350 or above OBP at every minor league stop since A-ball in 2004. He made it to the big leagues at age 23.

 

He then destroyed a leg.

 

He did not play baseball at all while he was age 24. He returned at age 25. Since returning to baseball at age 25, he has hit over .300 with solid overall numbers, OBP, and slugging, 3 years in a row, at AAA.

 

He has hit at every level since high-A ball, he has put up consistent numbers, the only time he needed to show that he "Figured something out" was when he broke into the big leagues at age 23. In that case, he was given under 200 at bats to figure things out because of a career-threatening injury.

 

Yeah, he could still implode, but we have got to give this guy a chance.

Why do you say anything about him "Figuring it out"?

 

He nearly destroyed his leg. That's his excuse, there was no "3 years of minor league struggling" or anything like that.

 

He hit .278 or above and put up a .350 or above OBP at every minor league stop since A-ball in 2004. He made it to the big leagues at age 23.

 

He then destroyed a leg.

 

He did not play baseball at all while he was age 24. He returned at age 25. Since returning to baseball at age 25, he has hit over .300 with solid overall numbers, OBP, and slugging, 3 years in a row, at AAA.

 

He has hit at every level since high-A ball, he has put up consistent numbers, the only time he needed to show that he "Figured something out" was when he broke into the big leagues at age 23. In that case, he was given under 200 at bats to figure things out because of a career-threatening injury.

 

Yeah, he could still implode, but we have got to give this guy a chance.

 

 

You make a good argument Balta and I tend to agree that we need to give him a chance. I would rather give one of our players the chance then going the free agent route. I wonder though, if the price was right, would the Sox go after Pierre again?

Why do you say anything about him "Figuring it out"?

 

He nearly destroyed his leg. That's his excuse, there was no "3 years of minor league struggling" or anything like that.

 

He hit .278 or above and put up a .350 or above OBP at every minor league stop since A-ball in 2004. He made it to the big leagues at age 23.

 

He then destroyed a leg.

 

He did not play baseball at all while he was age 24. He returned at age 25. Since returning to baseball at age 25, he has hit over .300 with solid overall numbers, OBP, and slugging, 3 years in a row, at AAA.

 

He has hit at every level since high-A ball, he has put up consistent numbers, the only time he needed to show that he "Figured something out" was when he broke into the big leagues at age 23. In that case, he was given under 200 at bats to figure things out because of a career-threatening injury.

 

Yeah, he could still implode, but we have got to give this guy a chance.

I can buy in with this.

This just in, Bill James Handbook projects the following line for De Aza next year...

 

.293/.350/.450. But it's only over 240 PAs. Nevertheless, it's about what I thought he'd be without the inflated BABIP. I'll gladly take that over Pierre any day.

This just in, Bill James Handbook projects the following line for De Aza next year...

 

.293/.350/.450. But it's only over 240 PAs. Nevertheless, it's about what I thought he'd be without the inflated BABIP. I'll gladly take that over Pierre any day.

 

 

I would LOVE that line over 600 PA from him next year.

I would LOVE that line over 600 PA from him next year.

 

Add in good defense (say +5 for the sake of it) and he's a 4-5 WAR player depending on how sucky league scoring remains next season. What a bargain that would be...

De Aza is a fringe AAA/MLB player, hell no he isn't an MLB leadoff hitter.

De Aza is a fringe AAA/MLB player, hell no he isn't an MLB leadoff hitter.

 

Did you watch him play last season?

De Aza is a fringe AAA/MLB player, hell no he isn't an MLB leadoff hitter.

What are you basing that on? If its on his age alone, like so many other people, you may want to to take a closer look at his career.

This just in, Bill James Handbook projects the following line for De Aza next year...

 

.293/.350/.450. But it's only over 240 PAs. Nevertheless, it's about what I thought he'd be without the inflated BABIP. I'll gladly take that over Pierre any day.

 

Is there any accuracy rating on James' projections? Or Marcel or PECOTA or any of these?

 

From what I have seen, James is generally high, while Marcel is generally a bit more conservative and accurate.

 

My best guess over 600 PAs for De Aza would be along the same lines of James, just with a lower average. ISO trends down some due to fewer XBHs, but something along the lines of .270/.330/.420 doesn't seem out of the question at all, and I would love that out of him.

I love DeAza. I really don't want to see him lead off because I like him somewhere in the middle of the order maybe 6th at least against righties.

I love DeAza. I really don't want to see him lead off because I like him somewhere in the middle of the order maybe 6th at least against righties.

Someone's gotta lead off. I don't really think long term he's a .450-500 slugging kinda guy, but I do think long term he's a .350+ OBP kinda guy. That means he's going to be more effective at generating runs by being on base for people than he would be by bouncing the ball off the fence.

I agree the Sox have no better option to lead off, however, I'm more optimistic about De Aza doing well in the middle of the order than I am of Adam Dunn. So if Dunn continues to struggle we don't exactly have many wall bangers. If De Aza does what he did last year over the course of a full season he would be an ideal 3 hitter.

I love DeAza. I really don't want to see him lead off because I like him somewhere in the middle of the order maybe 6th at least against righties.

The HR total from that sample size may be the most misleading stat. Though he has added a little pop he is not a middle of the order guy and is more of a doubles hitter with speed and good base running skills that should only get better. I think a line of 280/350/ 400 would be very good for him. Around 25-30 2bs and 3 3bs maybe 4 hrs. And rios should definitely be in left. An entire off season to adjust should be enough for him to adjust since he already has alot of rf experience in toronto. Also, isn't this the last year viciedo is locked up for us?

Edited November 15, 201114 yr by soxsider11

Williams did anoint Alejandro De Aza, who batted .329 and had a .400 on-base percentage in 54 games in the second half, as the Sox's leadoff batter.

 

"(Manager) Robin Ventura makes the lineup out," Williams said. "He will be given a suggestion, though."

Link

Link

 

 

Ventura may listen where Ozzie would have some some choice stuff

MDGonzales Mark Gonzales

RV echos KW's sentiment that De Aza will open ST as the Sox's leadoff man.

 

MDGonzales Mark Gonzales

RV tells ESPN100 "it kind of pans out when we start working with lineups and what we want to do."

 

yes

 

 

 

 

 

err, i thought it asked "Is De Aza an ideal AAA player?"

 

sorry