I assume that Hahn is better focused on what needs to be done, than many on this board.

His objective must be to not only acquire another LH hitter, but to get one who can hit in the middle of the order.

If the Sox have to bat Dunn 3RD or 4TH, they are not going to be able to compete with that Tiger lineup.

The Sox simply cannot have a guy with a .200 average and over 200 strike outs in the middle of their order, unless it's 5TH, and he follows some pretty good hitters, including at least one who bats from the left side.

Is there anyone here who disagrees with that?

 

 

 

 

You don't use Viciedo in a platoon. You either let him play and develop as a complete player or deal him if you are going to trade for Kubel (in separate deals).

I assume that Hahn is better focused on what needs to be done, than many on this board.

His objective must be to not only acquire another LH hitter, but to get one who can hit in the middle of the order.

If the Sox have to bat Dunn 3RD or 4TH, they are not going to be able to compete with that Tiger lineup.

The Sox simply cannot have a guy with a .200 average and over 200 strike outs in the middle of their order, unless it's 5TH, and he follows some pretty good hitters, including at least one who bats from the left side.

Is there anyone here who disagrees with that?

I agree with you 100%!

 

I've thought that since the Sox have had Dunn, he shouldn't bat 3rd. The #3 spot is typically for a team's best hitter.

Except that Detroit added Torii Hunter and gets Victor Martinez back; two HUGE additions to their lineup. (The Sox "countered" those moves by adding Keppinger and subtracting AJ.). The gap between the two teams has obviously widened, (as of 12/31/2012).

I'm still a fan of how getting Victor Martinez back is a huge addition and he'll suffer no ill effects from missing a season with injury...while getting John Danks back is a middling addition and he's guaranteed to suffer injury effects. It's not like Danks has piled up a higher fWAR than Martinez for 4 of the last 5 years, or 3 of the last 4 when they were healthy, or in 2011 when they both were last healthy.

I'm still a fan of how getting Victor Martinez back is a huge addition and he'll suffer no ill effects from missing a season with injury...while getting John Danks back is a middling addition and he's guaranteed to suffer injury effects. It's not like Danks has piled up a higher fWAR than Martinez for 4 of the last 5 years, or 3 of the last 4 when they were healthy, or in 2011 when they both were last healthy.

 

Pwned.

Now that the calendar is about to turn over to 2013, the big question becomes whether or not Hahn is going to be able to make a move before 2014. I believe he is still holed up in his Montana bunker surrounded by Chef Boyardee products & batteries as he waits for the world to end. Ricky, turn your ham radio back on. We're still going to play this thing.

I'm still a fan of how getting Victor Martinez back is a huge addition and he'll suffer no ill effects from missing a season with injury...while getting John Danks back is a middling addition and he's guaranteed to suffer injury effects. It's not like Danks has piled up a higher fWAR than Martinez for 4 of the last 5 years, or 3 of the last 4 when they were healthy, or in 2011 when they both were last healthy.

 

Pessimists get bored when there's nothing going on, so they just rave about everybody else while s***ting on their own team.

Pessimists get bored when there's nothing going on, so they just rave about everybody else while s***ting on their own team.

 

One of the most annoying things in pro-sports over the last decade or so has been the explosion of sim-games which make it incredibly easy to do a multitude of deals in a short period of time. The expectations for how a professional franchise is actually run have been distorted beyond all recognition. The Sox have been a franchise who have to be one of the most active historically over the last 10 years or so, and there are still a few people who are freaking out about the team doing nothing. Turn off the OOTP, turn off twitter, and come back to reality, please.

I'm still a fan of how getting Victor Martinez back is a huge addition and he'll suffer no ill effects from missing a season with injury...while getting John Danks back is a middling addition and he's guaranteed to suffer injury effects. It's not like Danks has piled up a higher fWAR than Martinez for 4 of the last 5 years, or 3 of the last 4 when they were healthy, or in 2011 when they both were last healthy.

I never said getting Danks back wouldn't be huge. Correct me if I'm wrong; isnt Danks coming back from his injury more of a risk than V-Mart coming back form his, based on the nature of the injuries and their respective positions?

One of the most annoying things in pro-sports over the last decade or so has been the explosion of sim-games which make it incredibly easy to do a multitude of deals in a short period of time. The expectations for how a professional franchise is actually run have been distorted beyond all recognition. The Sox have been a franchise who have to be one of the most active historically over the last 10 years or so, and there are still a few people who are freaking out about the team doing nothing. Turn off the OOTP, turn off twitter, and come back to reality, please.

 

It was difficult to see a way the Sox could contend for the division when the offseason began. After ~80+% of player movement is finished it is still difficult to see.

I never said getting Danks back wouldn't be huge. Correct me if I'm wrong; isnt Danks coming back from his injury more of a risk than V-Mart coming back form his, based on the nature of the injuries and their respective positions?

 

Martinez probably won't catch full-time ever again. And if you thought he was slow before, he's probably even slower now.

 

And there's absolutely no guarantee that Danks will be ineffective in 2013. Some of you make it sound as if he's going to be Phil Humber bad.

I never said getting Danks back wouldn't be huge. Correct me if I'm wrong; isnt Danks coming back from his injury more of a risk than V-Mart coming back form his, based on the nature of the injuries and their respective positions?

It's a mixed bag. Yes, VMart has an easier position to play, but he has also been out longer and is 34 years old. Yes, Danks's problem was a shoulder problem and those are always iffy, but Danks is younger, and we have at least the trainer on this site saying his problem is one that he can recover from by next year.

It was difficult to see a way the Sox could contend for the division when the offseason began. After ~80+% of player movement is finished it is still difficult to see.

It's a lot easier to see than last year, though.

Now that the calendar is about to turn over to 2013, the big question becomes whether or not Hahn is going to be able to make a move before 2014. I believe he is still holed up in his Montana bunker surrounded by Chef Boyardee products & batteries as he waits for the world to end. Ricky, turn your ham radio back on. We're still going to play this thing.

 

 

If he is in Big Sky Country it is my mission in life to find him and shake a deal out of him

It was difficult to see a way the Sox could contend for the division when the offseason began. After ~80+% of player movement is finished it is still difficult to see.

 

 

We are all even until after game one of the season is started. I think we can contend with the team we have now and I am sure there will be some improvement still coming before April

We can probably bank on Cabrera not having as good of a season. Likewise with Hunter, and he may regress big time. They also stayed miraculously healthy with Cabrera, Fielder, Verlander, Scherzer, etc. On our end, we had nagging injuries and general ineffectiveness from our big boppers as well as our big arms. Lots of ground can be made up just from some regression to the mean.

I assume that Hahn is better focused on what needs to be done, than many on this board.

His objective must be to not only acquire another LH hitter, but to get one who can hit in the middle of the order.

If the Sox have to bat Dunn 3RD or 4TH, they are not going to be able to compete with that Tiger lineup.

The Sox simply cannot have a guy with a .200 average and over 200 strike outs in the middle of their order, unless it's 5TH, and he follows some pretty good hitters, including at least one who bats from the left side.

Is there anyone here who disagrees with that?

 

 

I believe there was someone on here who posted some advanced stats or abstract knowledge that said Dunn was an ideal #3 hitter.

 

I'd be ok with Dunn in the 3 spot. If you bat him behind guys like PK and Rios he'll never get anything to hit.

I believe there was someone on here who posted some advanced stats or abstract knowledge that said Dunn was an ideal #3 hitter.

 

I'd be ok with Dunn in the 3 spot. If you bat him behind guys like PK and Rios he'll never get anything to hit.

 

Basically, you approach this from a first inning perspective and then, with reasonable expectations, assume the same for the remainder of the game.

 

In the first inning, there are about 3 primary scenarios one can expect:

 

#1) There will be no one on base (50%)

#2) There will be one person on base (40%)

#3) There will be two people on base (10%)

 

In #1, a walk continues the inning, a strikeout is the same as anything else, and a home run is a run.

In #2, a walk continues the inning, a strikeout prevents the inning from ending, and a home run is worth 2 runs.

In #3, a walk loads the bases, a strikeout prevent the inning from endining, and a home run is worth 3 runs.

 

With his TTO%, one of those scenarios is likely to happen around more than half the time (he was at 56.7% last year), so it is essentially that his strikeouts do little harm in the 3 spot while his walks and homers are just as worthwhile.

I believe there was someone on here who posted some advanced stats or abstract knowledge that said Dunn was an ideal #3 hitter.

 

I'd be ok with Dunn in the 3 spot. If you bat him behind guys like PK and Rios he'll never get anything to hit.

 

That was me. Career average Dunn is the ideal prototype based on Tom Tango's research, but he does need to get on base at more than a .330 clip. Basically the three hole gets a ton of benefit from homers and gets hit really hard by double play situations, so striking out is more preferable there than any other spot, comparatively. He can strike out 200 times and hit .200 or whatever, just so long as he hits 35-40 homers and keeps the OBP at least above .350.

Basically, you approach this from a first inning perspective and then, with reasonable expectations, assume the same for the remainder of the game.

 

In the first inning, there are about 3 primary scenarios one can expect:

 

#1) There will be no one on base (50%)

#2) There will be one person on base (40%)

#3) There will be two people on base (10%)

 

In #1, a walk continues the inning, a strikeout is the same as anything else, and a home run is a run.

In #2, a walk continues the inning, a strikeout prevents the inning from ending, and a home run is worth 2 runs.

In #3, a walk loads the bases, a strikeout prevent the inning from endining, and a home run is worth 3 runs.

 

With his TTO%, one of those scenarios is likely to happen around more than half the time (he was at 56.7% last year), so it is essentially that his strikeouts do little harm in the 3 spot while his walks and homers are just as worthwhile.

 

Didn't read this before I replied. Yes, what he said

All of those statistics merely give me a headache. I'm sorry, but I just can't wrap my mind around the virtue of having a guy who hits .200 and strikes out at least 200 times a season, batting 3RD. That is sure a far cry from Miguel Cabrera.

Perhaps I'm completely off base, but intuitively, it just doesn't sound right to me.

We can probably bank on Cabrera not having as good of a season. Likewise with Hunter, and he may regress big time. They also stayed miraculously healthy with Cabrera, Fielder, Verlander, Scherzer, etc. On our end, we had nagging injuries and general ineffectiveness from our big boppers as well as our big arms. Lots of ground can be made up just from some regression to the mean.

 

I wonder how long it will be before Cabrera and Fielder are too obese to hit.

All of those statistics merely give me a headache. I'm sorry, but I just can't wrap my mind around the virtue of having a guy who hits .200 and strikes out at least 200 times a season, batting 3RD. That is sure a far cry from Miguel Cabrera.

Perhaps I'm completely off base, but intuitively, it just doesn't sound right to me.

 

I think most people agree with you intuitively -- I definitely used to. But I thought the Tango research was pretty eye opening. It comes down to the types of base/out states that occur most often for each lineup spot, and the subsequent linear weights of each batter outcome on those base/out states. You can read a quick and dirty summary here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by), but I think you need The Book to get the math to justify it.

 

Don't misunderstand -- it's not like strikeouts are GOOD or anything. You're right to say there is no virtue to striking out and hitting for a low average. I mean, you'd like to have awesome all around hitters in every spot ideally. It's just that if you only have a couple awesome all around hitters, they're more productive in the #2 and #4 spots. The #3 and #5 are roughly equal importance and should be spots for your fourth and fifth best guys, and if all else is equal, high contact is more valuable in the #5 spot and low contact/big power is more useful in the #3 spot. So saying Dunn is ideal as our #3 hitter is saying that he is about our fourth or fifth best hitter and happens to be a high power/low contact guy -- which sounds exactly right to me. Peak Dunn is probably something like an ideal #3 hitter (assuming he isn't your overall best hitter), but our current version of Dunn is just the ideal #3 hitter out of our current roster.

 

Of course we'd rather have Miguel Cabrera batting anywhere than Dunn, the stats are just saying that Miguel Cabrera should really be in the #4 hole instead of #3 because he'll get more chances to drive in runs with extra base hits and fewer chances to ground into double plays -- at the expense of about 18 at bats over the course of a full season.

Edited December 31, 201213 yr by Eminor3rd

I think most people agree with you intuitively -- I definitely used to. But I thought the Tango research was pretty eye opening. It comes down to the types of base/out states that occur most often for each lineup spot, and the subsequent linear weights of each batter outcome on those base/out states. You can read a quick and dirty summary here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by), but I think you need The Book to get the math to justify it.

 

Don't misunderstand -- it's not like strikeouts are GOOD or anything. You're right to say there is no virtue to striking out and hitting for a low average. I mean, you'd like to have awesome all around hitters in every spot ideally. It's just that if you only have a couple awesome all around hitters, they're more productive in the #2 and #4 spots. The #3 and #5 are roughly equal importance and should be spots for your fourth and fifth best guys, and if all else is equal, high contact is more valuable in the #5 spot and low contact/big power is more useful in the #3 spot. So saying Dunn is ideal as our #3 hitter is saying that he is about our fourth or fifth best hitter and happens to be a high power/low contact guy -- which sounds exactly right to me. Peak Dunn is probably something like an ideal #3 hitter (assuming he isn't your overall best hitter), but our current version of Dunn is just the ideal #3 hitter out of our current roster.

 

Of course we'd rather have Miguel Cabrera batting anywhere than Dunn, the stats are just saying that Miguel Cabrera should really be in the #4 hole instead of #3 because he'll get more chances to drive in runs with extra base hits and fewer chances to ground into double plays -- at the expense of about 18 at bats over the course of a full season.

 

Didn't Cabrera lead the league in double plays last year?

 

You have to have Dunn batting in front of two of your best hitters or else all his walks get wasted.