Rebuild: So Far Better Than Could Have Hoped For

[witesoxfan]

Then what, what? This team isn't good enough to win this division or make the playoffs. Its not hard to see that if you watch them play. Its pointless to not trade these guys if were out of it. And I am not saying give them away, if the value isnt there so be it but I don't think that's going to be the case.

 

The phrase gets overused, and I'm going to continue with that, but crazier stuff has happened. Guys like Flowers have turned a corner, found a hitch in their swing, and started producing; or guys like Phegley have come up, continued hitting, and helped turn the tides for the team. The bullpen could use a boost, but their rotation is incredibly talented and it is going to keep the team in virtually every game for as long as they're healthy.

 

It's simply way too early to give up on the season at this point in time. They're 4.5 back in the Central and 4.0 back in the Wild Card race on May 29th. There's plenty of time for them to get hot or fall off a cliff, so talking about them selling off pieces, even if you have a pretty good feeling that they won't be in the race, is absolutely silly.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The phrase gets overused, and I'm going to continue with that, but crazier stuff has happened. Guys like Flowers have turned a corner, found a hitch in their swing, and started producing; or guys like Phegley have come up, continued hitting, and helped turn the tides for the team. The bullpen could use a boost, but their rotation is incredibly talented and it is going to keep the team in virtually every game for as long as they're healthy.

 

It's simply way too early to give up on the season at this point in time. They're 4.5 back in the Central and 4.0 back in the Wild Card race on May 29th. There's plenty of time for them to get hot or fall off a cliff, so talking about them selling off pieces, even if you have a pretty good feeling that they won't be in the race, is absolutely silly.

See I would normally agree with you but I think the future is more important than rolling the dice on this season. Look at our middle of the order for Christmas sake.

 

We're not far away IMO. We really have some pieces. We have tons of starting pitching, a couple pieces in the pen, a couple position players.... we just need to finish the job.

 

A gigantic chunk of regular SoxTalk conversation is either 1) b****ing about how "going for it" at the wrong times hurts the organization, 2) b****ing about lack of sustained success, 3) b****ing about lack of organizational depth, 4) b****ing about fans not showing up, and 5) launching totally unprovoked veiled "baseball criticisms" i.e. character assaults on the likes of Kenny Williams, Mark Buehrle, AJ Pierzynski, and Hawk Harrellson. Now we can't do much about #5, but the other 4 we may actually be able to address at least in part by finishing the job and putting the future first by building around this core. And if we're going to do that we need to do it now.

[witesoxfan]

The thing is, if this team is really as bad as people think (and the Tigers and the rest of the AL as good as they are), then they won't be 4.0 games back of the Wild Card and 4.5 in the Central come mid-July, they'll be closer to 7-10 back in both and making a run for it with an aging middle of the order won't make sense and they will sell pieces off.

 

Personally, I think the middle of the order is OK. It's below average, and you will find no arguments from me there, but Rios and Viciedo keep hitting and I think Dunn and Konerko will bring their numbers up as well.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

See I would normally agree with you but I think the future is more important than rolling the dice on this season. Look at our middle of the order for Christmas sake.

 

We're not far away IMO. We really have some pieces. We have tons of starting pitching, a couple pieces in the pen, a couple position players.... we just need to finish the job.

 

A gigantic chunk of regular SoxTalk conversation is either 1) b****ing about how "going for it" at the wrong times hurts the organization, 2) b****ing about lack of sustained success, 3) b****ing about lack of organizational depth, 4) b****ing about fans not showing up, and 5) launching totally unprovoked veiled "baseball criticisms" i.e. character assaults on the likes of Kenny Williams, Mark Buehrle, AJ Pierzynski, and Hawk Harrellson. Now we can't do much about #5, but the other 4 we may actually be able to address at least in part by finishing the job and putting the future first by building around this core. And if we're going to do that we need to do it now.

If the Sox aren't that far away, why trade guys like Peavy and Rios for prospects who are farther away, if they even get there at all?

 

Even Marty said the rotation is shaping up. How long do rotations stay together?

 

The time to try to win is while Sale's elbow and shoulder are intact.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2013 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

If the Sox aren't that far away, why trade guys like Peavy and Rios for prospects who are farther away, if they even get there at all?

 

Even Marty said the rotation is shaping up. How long do rotations stay together?

 

The time to try to win is while Sale's elbow and shoulder are intact.

 

 

Then what players have "Youkilis-esque" contracts that are that unique combination of 1/2 year commitments, where the veteran player is blocking a youngster and/or that veteran is having a hard time with his current manager and it's best for the team to part ways....almost, to give him away to kill 2 birds with one stone?

 

Because I haven't seen anyone on here advocate trading, let's say, Erik Johnson, to fix the three biggest problems for the current team, which are catcher, Dunn/Konerko/offense from the middle of the line-up, and the bullpen (and that's assuming there's a "smooth" transition to Gordon at 2B and he doesn't hit in the high 500's OPS-wise coming back from that wrist problem)

 

Other than taking on salary, or making Liriano trades that don't affect the core (Escobar/Pedro Hernandez...which would be trading Axelrod, and even many consider him more valuable to the Sox than as someone who could fetch a trade return)...how do you intend to do that?

 

It seems the only way would be to trade either Johnson or Santiago.

 

Are you willing to take that risk?

 

If you look at it from another perspective, we "went for it" last year at mid-season and still came up short. We didn't have a player (Escobar) who could have entered 2013 as the starting 3B, so we he had to overpay on Keppinger...which isn't a HUGE contract, but it was brought about, once again, because of lack of minor league depth. (And, no, we can't say that ANYONE would have predicted Gillaspie could be the starter against both LHP and RHP before the season). Are we honestly going to be closer to getting to the playoffs this year than last year? How can you make that case, if we're 5 games back, let's say, rather than 3-5 games ahead?

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Then what players have "Youkilis-esque" contracts that are that unique combination of 1/2 year commitments, where the veteran player is blocking a youngster and/or that veteran is having a hard time with his current manager and it's best for the team to part ways....almost, to give him away to kill 2 birds with one stone?

 

Because I haven't seen anyone on here advocate trading, let's say, Erik Johnson, to fix the three biggest problems for the current team, which are catcher, Dunn/Konerko/offense from the middle of the line-up, and the bullpen (and that's assuming there's a "smooth" transition to Gordon at 2B and he doesn't hit in the high 500's OPS-wise coming back from that wrist problem)

 

Other than taking on salary, or making Liriano trades that don't affect the core (Escobar/Pedro Hernandez...which would be trading Axelrod, and even many consider him more valuable to the Sox than as someone who could fetch a trade return)...how do you intend to do that?

 

It seems the only way would be to trade either Johnson or Santiago.

 

Are you willing to take that risk?

 

If you look at it from another perspective, we "went for it" last year at mid-season and still came up short. We didn't have a player (Escobar) who could have entered 2013 as the starting 3B, so we he had to overpay on Keppinger...which isn't a HUGE contract, but it was brought about, once again, because of lack of minor league depth. (And, no, we can't say that ANYONE would have predicted Gillaspie could be the starter against both LHP and RHP before the season). Are we honestly going to be closer to getting to the playoffs this year than last year? How can you make that case, if we're 5 games back, let's say, rather than 3-5 games ahead?

Why is trading Santiago or Johnson a big risk, but trading a former Cy Young award winner who is healthy again, and has been performing tremendously, not? Seems to me trading guys who actually have shown they are great major league players is far more a risk than trading maybes. I understand I am on Soxtalk and Santiago is a guy who is going to win 5 or 6 Cy Youngs if he is just handled properly and Johnson is can't miss, but success in the minor leagues does not equal success in the majors. Go to baseball reference and check out Rod Bolton. First, look at his minor league stats prior to his White Sox call up, and tell me how much Soxtalk would be raving. The Sox wouldn't have needed Black Jack. Then look what happened when he got his shot. I hope Johnson and Santiago pan out, and are at least 25% as great as some around here think they are, but until it really happens, Peavy is the safer choice.

 

And if Eduardo Escobar was the Sox starting 3B, you still would be arguing the same things about him.

 

If you play a bunch of rookies, chances are, you aren't going to win. Not everyone is Mike Trout.

Edited May 29, 2013 by Dick Allen

[The Ultimate Champion]

If the Sox aren't that far away, why trade guys like Peavy and Rios for prospects who are farther away, if they even get there at all?

 

Even Marty said the rotation is shaping up. How long do rotations stay together?

 

The time to try to win is while Sale's elbow and shoulder are intact.

I don't like the idea of trading Rios & Peavy for unproven players who are far away *and then* having to rely on those players to come through. I am not looking at a 3-4 year development plan, I am looking at using the rest of 2013 plus potentially all of the 2014 season, or at least the first 2 months of 2014, to add to our core to see what we have and then add vets to it. In deals for Rios and/or Peavy (if they are traded at all, because I think they are young enough to build around as well assuming we would make a few Gillaspie/Uribe/DeAza-like "finds" along the way which we can afford) then I would want back MLB-ready players. But - with that said - I would definitely, definitely take back some really high-ceiling A+ ballers that everyone loves IF AND ONLY IF those players were going to be turned around in deals for impact types who are performing now and are either locked into team-friendly deals or appear to be extendable.

 

I also don't think you count on Chris Sale's arm falling off anymore than you count on Courtney Hawkins or Keon Barnum as thumpers in the middle of the 2016/17 lineup.

Edited May 29, 2013 by The Ultimate Champion

[witesoxfan]

Maybe you trade for a guy like AJ Ellis, John Buck, or even Jonathan LuCroy if you don't want to give Phegley a try. If 2B remains an issue, perhaps Chase Utley is an option. Relievers are always available, just as back of the rotation starters are.

 

There will be options if the Sox are close. They don't need to make a huge splash.

[caulfield12]

Why is trading Santiago or Johnson a big risk, but trading a former Cy Young award winner who is healthy again, and has been performing tremendously, not? Seems to me trading guys who actually have shown they are great major league players is far more a risk than trading maybes. I understand I am on Soxtalk and Santiago is a guy who is going to win 5 or 6 Cy Youngs if he is just handled properly and Johnson is can't miss, but success in the minor leagues does not equal success in the majors. Go to baseball reference and check out Rod Bolton. First, look at his minor league stats prior to his White Sox call up, and tell me how much Soxtalk would be raving. The Sox wouldn't have needed Black Jack. Then look what happened when he got his shot. I hope Johnson and Santiago pan out, and are at least 25% as great as some around here think they are, but until it really happens, Peavy is the safer choice.

 

And if Eduardo Escobar was the Sox starting 3B, you still would be arguing the same things about him.

 

If you play a bunch of rookies, chances are, you aren't going to win. Not everyone is Mike Trout.

 

 

Rodney Bolton? Seriously? I remember following the team religiously at that time, and never once thinking he was going to amount to something.

 

It's not like we're talking Wilson Alvarez, Bere, Alex Fernandez here...(or Daniel Hudson, or Gio Gonzalez, etc.)

 

Yes, you would think Peavy is the safer choice, but once again, the calculation is how much value are we losing in trade return if he goes through another 2nd half like 2012? Sure, he could completely change the trend and beat the Tigers 3-4-5 times head-to-head and lead the White Sox to the playoffs, anything is POSSIBLE.

 

To me, the biggest concern isn't so much with his age as his health, taking on the workload he was burdened with by Ventura/Cooper last season. Verducci Effect, etc. And going through the next 26 games, it's likely that Peavy will STILL look more like a Cy Young Award winner (albeit at 90-92/93 MPH) than the 2nd half 2012 version, which means his trade value would never, ever be any higher.

 

Back to the oft-recurring McCann/Morales/Granderson/Utley scenario. If you can guarantee we bring at least two of those guys into the fold for 2014...then standing pat with Peavy and waiting out the trade market is the better scenario.

 

If, on the other hand, you're left with the Jeff Keppingers, Tyler Flowers and Conor Gillaspies as your biggest moves....and yes, we all realize who's coming off the books contract-wise and the $25 million incoming, keeping Peavy makes less and less sense.

 

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

Maybe you trade for a guy like AJ Ellis, John Buck, or even Jonathan LuCroy if you don't want to give Phegley a try. If 2B remains an issue, perhaps Chase Utley is an option. Relievers are always available, just as back of the rotation starters are.

 

There will be options if the Sox are close. They don't need to make a huge splash.

John Buck or someone like John Buck on a John Buck type of deal is a very smart move for the future. I don't care what he's doing now, he's someone who could help us next year and beyond.

 

I've said it over and over, but I hate trying to develop catchers. It's such a hard position, so few come through, and you have to sit there and watch them turn into busts on the Major League field. There are probably a lot of things I'd do if I had a time machine, but one of the things I'd do is going back in time to just a few years ago when the Rangers had Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, and Ramirez all garnering attention in the prospect world & then let them know they're all garbage and that you'll be happier with Napoli the butcher who is already on the Angels & an older version of AJ who isn't going to leave the Sox for several more seasons.

[caulfield12]

John Buck or someone like John Buck on a John Buck type of deal is a very smart move for the future. I don't care what he's doing now, he's someone who could help us next year and beyond.

 

I've said it over and over, but I hate trying to develop catchers. It's such a hard position, so few come through, and you have to sit there and watch them turn into busts on the Major League field. There are probably a lot of things I'd do if I had a time machine, but one of the things I'd do is going back in time to just a few years ago when the Rangers had Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, and Ramirez all garnering attention in the prospect world & then let them know they're all garbage and that you'll be happier with Napoli the butcher who is already on the Angels & an older version of AJ who isn't going to leave the Sox for several more seasons.

 

On the other hand, Miguel Olivo was the key piece with getting Freddy Garcia back, even if Morse turned out to be the better player in the end, and was considered a big guy with not enough power for 3B/LF and too big for SS...more like a super-utility guy.

[maggsmaggs]

Maybe you trade for a guy like AJ Ellis, John Buck, or even Jonathan LuCroy if you don't want to give Phegley a try. If 2B remains an issue, perhaps Chase Utley is an option. Relievers are always available, just as back of the rotation starters are.

 

There will be options if the Sox are close. They don't need to make a huge splash.

 

The problem is that our system is so bereft of talent that we have the least amount to offer teams in trades. Right now, there is probably only one player we have that you can say very likely will be an solid ML player (Johnson). I also don't believe Hahn is going to be as reckless in trading cost-controlled players as KW was, especially with starting pitching where average pitchers are getting $10 million per season.

 

Granted, KW traded players who had high value at the time and ended up doing nothing with a few exceptions (Morse, Hudson, Gio).

 

EDIT: I should note Erik Johnson to avoid confusion with the many other Johnsons we have in the system.

Edited May 29, 2013 by maggsmaggs

[caulfield12]

The problem is that our system is so bereft of talent that we have the least amount to offer teams in trades. Right now, there is probably only one player we have that you can say very likely will be an solid ML player (Johnson). I also don't believe Hahn is going to be as reckless in trading cost-controlled players as KW was, especially with starting pitching where average pitchers are getting $10 million per season.

 

Granted, KW traded players who had high value at the time and ended up doing nothing with a couple exceptions (Morse, Hudson, Gio).

 

 

And Morse was a total bust for the Mariners.

 

Hard to say with the PED's as well, obviously he became productive for the Nationals almost half a decade later, with many stops in-between.

[The Ultimate Champion]

On the other hand, Miguel Olivo was the key piece with getting Freddy Garcia back, even if Morse turned out to be the better player in the end, and was considered a big guy with not enough power for 3B/LF and too big for SS...more like a super-utility guy.

Which is generally why you trade them, as the greatest value Miguel Olivo had in his career (trade value that is) was probably exactly when the Sox dealt him. Olivo however did become a pretty solid MLB catcher, pretty much all you can ask for as far as defense + speed on the basepaths + power, although supposedly he wasn't a pitcher's favorite guy to throw to, at least that was the wrap when he was with us. We'd do well to find someone like that though, a vet who can hit 7th or 8th, do some things defensively, but someone the pitchers like. I'll be perfectly happy letting other teams develop our next catcher and then acquire him in trade or through FA once he's an established Major Leaguer.

[Chicago White Sox]

The problem is that our system is so bereft of talent that we have the least amount to offer teams in trades. Right now, there is probably only one player we have that you can say very likely will be an solid ML player (Johnson). I also don't believe Hahn is going to be as reckless in trading cost-controlled players as KW was, especially with starting pitching where average pitchers are getting $10 million per season.

 

Granted, KW traded players who had high value at the time and ended up doing nothing with a few exceptions (Morse, Hudson, Gio).

 

EDIT: I should note Erik Johnson to avoid confusion with the many other Johnsons we have in the system.

But we can still trade cost controlled players for other cost controlled players. I'm sure plenty of teams would have interest in Quintana right now. Perhaps you look into trading him for a young impact bat. Erik Johnson would then replace Quintana in the rotation.

 

I'm not necessarily advocating that particular move, but we definitely have starting pitching we can trade to help improve the offense.

[Balta1701]

But we can still trade cost controlled players for other cost controlled players. I'm sure plenty of teams would have interest in Quintana right now. Perhaps you look into trading him for a young impact bat. Erik Johnson would then replace Quintana in the rotation.

 

I'm not necessarily advocating that particular move, but we definitely have starting pitching we can trade to help improve the offense.

I'm not sure which guy it will involve, and I don't know if it will happen this year at the deadline or not, but I can definitely see the Sox being in a position where they need to deal a LH starting pitcher next offseason. If no one gets hurt, they'll be sitting 7 deep in their rotation counting EJ, who can start at AAA waiting on a spot to open up, and then they might even have other guys like Snodgress who could legitimately contribute in the near future as well.

 

5 front line starters and a guy or two at AAA who can step in is a pretty good scenario. 6 front line starters starts causing problems because someone has to go to the bullpen or get stuck in the minors when they should be facing big league hitters.

[caulfield12]

 

 

It's simple. Cooper and Hahn are going to have to pick the guy who has the best future as a starter and deal the other one...it will come down to Santiago vs. Quintana.

 

It's hard to imagine that value being increased by parking Santiago in the bullpen as the long-man or loogy, though.

 

Santiago doesn't ever fit the traditional LH/RH bullpen match-up by the book thing anyway (like Thornton), because of his repertoire.

[southsider2k5]

It's simple. Cooper and Hahn are going to have to pick the guy who has the best future as a starter and deal the other one...it will come down to Santiago vs. Quintana.

 

It's hard to imagine that value being increased by parking Santiago in the bullpen as the long-man or loogy, though.

 

Santiago doesn't ever fit the traditional LH/RH bullpen match-up by the book thing anyway (like Thornton), because of his repertoire.

 

Not at all. Hahn has to get the team that gives Ventura and Cooper the best chance to win games. Things like trade value and value only matter if this team is selling off.

[caulfield12]

Not at all. Hahn has to get the team that gives Ventura and Cooper the best chance to win games. Things like trade value and value only matter if this team is selling off.

 

Except even if parking Sale in the bullpen gave the Sox a better chance to win for those two years, it wasn't the best thing for the long-term future of the organization to delay his evolution into a starting pitcher. It wasted time. His first season, sure, but not the 2nd.

 

That's the problem. Because he was so effective in his rookie year, it was hard to convince them to take him from a role where he was valuable but 5X less valuable to the organization than as a starter.

 

 

At any rate, I was referring more to the offseason, not something they will do this June/July.

[witesoxfan]

The problem is that our system is so bereft of talent that we have the least amount to offer teams in trades. Right now, there is probably only one player we have that you can say very likely will be an solid ML player (Johnson). I also don't believe Hahn is going to be as reckless in trading cost-controlled players as KW was, especially with starting pitching where average pitchers are getting $10 million per season.

 

Granted, KW traded players who had high value at the time and ended up doing nothing with a few exceptions (Morse, Hudson, Gio).

 

EDIT: I should note Erik Johnson to avoid confusion with the many other Johnsons we have in the system.

 

Utley should certainly be more expensive, but he's also injured again and there are a lot of teams that will be competing that are already set at 2B. Rickie Weeks is another guy who could very well be available for pennies on the dollar, but there's far more inherent risk with him.

 

Beyond that, the guys the Sox are looking to acquire don't and won't cost a lot. The Sox gave up minor league fodder last year for the guys they acquired with the exception of perhaps Pedro Hernandez (4th or 5th starter potential) and Eduardo Escobar (poor starter/utility guy potential). No one is missing those guys. If you can do the same this year - give up a Saladino or a Morel or a Short or a Loman or whoever...someone in that range...nobody is going to be upset and you can acquire upgrades by packaging a couple of those guys together.

 

Except even if parking Sale in the bullpen gave the Sox a better chance to win for those two years, it wasn't the best thing for the long-term future of the organization to delay his evolution into a starting pitcher. It wasted time. His first season, sure, but not the 2nd.

 

That's the problem. Because he was so effective in his rookie year, it was hard to convince them to take him from a role where he was valuable but 5X less valuable to the organization than as a starter.

 

Except that the Sox don't have to trade either Santiago or Quintana. They have that option, but they could certainly just maintain that depth and use Santiago out of the bullpen next year, or Quintana, or whoever. I think we have seen that, unless this regime (going from Williams over to Hahn, though we haven't had a lot to see out of Hahn yet) receives what they perceive to be equal value or better, they simply won't make the trade. I seem to recall the White Sox and Red Sox in heavy discussions for Jermaine Dye in 2007, and the Red Sox wanted to give up Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen whle the White Sox wanted Justin Masterson. They never made a deal, and the Sox eventually resigned Dye for the next 2 seasons.

[Dick Allen]

If Morse, Hudson and Gio is the reason you don't trade minor leaguers, no one should trade minor leaguers. Morse got you a guy that help win a WS, and he didn't develop into anything until he was 28 or 29. Hudson will have 2 lost years due to injury, and will be arb eligible. Gio was a tough one who was actually traded twice. However, if you go back, Gio, for all his promise, wasn't exactly held in high regard on Soxtalk. Nowhere near the status of Santiago and Jordan Danks.

[caulfield12]

Utley should certainly be more expensive, but he's also injured again and there are a lot of teams that will be competing that are already set at 2B. Rickie Weeks is another guy who could very well be available for pennies on the dollar, but there's far more inherent risk with him.

 

Beyond that, the guys the Sox are looking to acquire don't and won't cost a lot. The Sox gave up minor league fodder last year for the guys they acquired with the exception of perhaps Pedro Hernandez (4th or 5th starter potential) and Eduardo Escobar (poor starter/utility guy potential). No one is missing those guys. If you can do the same this year - give up a Saladino or a Morel or a Short or a Loman or whoever...someone in that range...nobody is going to be upset and you can acquire upgrades by packaging a couple of those guys together.

 

 

 

Except that the Sox don't have to trade either Santiago or Quintana. They have that option, but they could certainly just maintain that depth and use Santiago out of the bullpen next year, or Quintana, or whoever. I think we have seen that, unless this regime (going from Williams over to Hahn, though we haven't had a lot to see out of Hahn yet) receives what they perceive to be equal value or better, they simply won't make the trade. I seem to recall the White Sox and Red Sox in heavy discussions for Jermaine Dye in 2007, and the Red Sox wanted to give up Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen whle the White Sox wanted Justin Masterson. They never made a deal, and the Sox eventually resigned Dye for the next 2 seasons.

 

Hey, I'm sure all of us are more than willing to roll with the "just add to the payroll" approach, but how likely is that?

 

It doesn't square with the last decade, with the exception of the Dunn/Rios/Peavy acquisitions. And giving Danks an extension.

 

We'll add to the payroll at the All-Star break, but aren't quick to take on long-term commitments.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Hey, I'm sure all of us are more than willing to roll with the "just add to the payroll" approach, but how likely is that?

 

It doesn't square with the last decade, with the exception of the Dunn/Rios/Peavy acquisitions. And giving Danks an extension.

 

We'll add to the payroll at the All-Star break, but aren't quick to take on long-term commitments.

They took on Peavy and Rios during the season.

[caulfield12]

They took on Peavy and Rios during the season.

 

That was coming off the 2008 playoff appearance and a bounce in attendance.

 

With our attendance about the same as last year, we're actually down in revenue, when you consider the lowered ticket prices, Sunday family day rates, parking discounts, etc.

 

They don't have the incoming revenues to justify adding that kind of talent long-term this season.

 

 

[Balta1701]

That was coming off the 2008 playoff appearance and a bounce in attendance.

 

With our attendance about the same as last year, we're actually down in revenue, when you consider the lowered ticket prices, Sunday family day rates, parking discounts, etc.

 

They don't have the incoming revenues to justify adding that kind of talent long-term this season.

2008 attendance: 2,500,648

2009 attendance: 2,284,163