I bet you he gets $15m a year.

We're paying Dunn $14.5M/year, you wouldn't pay Choo $15M per? I'd do that in a heartbeat, the problem is he probably gets closer to $20M.

We're paying Dunn $14.5M/year, you wouldn't pay Choo $15M per? I'd do that in a heartbeat, the problem is he probably gets closer to $20M.

 

No, not to play CF from age 32-37 or whatever it'll be. Why would use Dunn's disaster of a contract to justify signing another one?

No, not to play CF from age 32-37 or whatever it'll be. Why would use Dunn's disaster of a contract to justify signing another one?

None of that means "we can't afford him" which was your original claim.

We're paying Dunn $14.5M/year, you wouldn't pay Choo $15M per? I'd do that in a heartbeat, the problem is he probably gets closer to $20M.

For a long term deal? No way.

No, not to play CF from age 32-37 or whatever it'll be. Why would use Dunn's disaster of a contract to justify signing another one?

Because if that was FMV for an elite DH 3 years ago, what do you think an elite RF gets paid in free agency next year after every teams receives an extra $25M to work with? Also, Fangraphs has him worth $15M on the season, which means he should be worth $20M by the end of the year. While teams should be paying players based on their expected future production, we all know once a guy reaches free agency, more often than not, he'll get paid based on his historical performance.

 

Again, I'm not saying I'd give Choo $20M per year, but some GM likely will do that or something close to it.

Again, I'm not saying I'd give Choo $20M per year, but some GM likely will do that or something close to it.

If the White Sox don't trade Peavy or Rios and start looking like they're going to try to be a competitive team next year, I'd think they'd be major suitors for him.

For a long term deal? No way.

I'm not sure why I have to keep saying this, but EVERY team gets an extra $25 million to work with next year. Sure some organizations like the Marlins will end up pocketing it for a while, but most competitive teams are going to use that money and sooner rather than later. That's going to inflate player salaries pretty significantly in the long-run. We should see noticeable changes as soon as next year, since it's not like there will suddenly be more players to spend this money on. There will just be more demand for the same supply of players.

 

And does anyone really think Scott Boras won't use this to his advantage?

If the White Sox don't trade Peavy or Rios and start looking like they're going to try to be a competitive team next year, I'd think they'd be major suitors for him.

I love Choo and he would fill a ton of needs for us offensively. In all honesty, I wouldn't have a problem paying him a big annual salary, but I worry someone will give him a stupid amount of years.

I love Choo and he would fill a ton of needs for us offensively. In all honesty, I wouldn't have a problem paying him a big annual salary, but I worry someone will give him a stupid amount of years.

One nice thing about the Sox doing so would be that you might get lucky and be able to keep him productive as a DH during the latter years.

 

But just remember, when you buy a free agent, the "extra years on the end" are the premium price you pay to try to compete in the first year or two of the deal. If you can't compete that year, don't sign a big money FA; if you can compete with the guy that first year or two, then you start seeing whether the investment makes sense long term.

 

Basically, I think if you assume the last 2 years of any long term deal are a "sunk cost" and ask "am I willing to waste the money in those 2 years in order to compete next year", you've got a decent line of thinking for how to play the FA market. You might go last 3-4 years if you're talking an 8 year deal for someone, but you get the idea.

There will be no available free agents next year who will be worth more than a 2-year contract to the Sox.

There will be no available free agents next year who will be worth more than a 2-year contract to the Sox.

Why wouldn't Morales be worth a 3 or 4 year deal?

Why wouldn't Morales be worth a 3 or 4 year deal?

 

Not a difference maker, 31 y.o., and with the added money from the TV deal, the free agents on the market will be way overpaid.

Because if that was FMV for an elite DH 3 years ago, what do you think an elite RF gets paid in free agency next year after every teams receives an extra $25M to work with? Also, Fangraphs has him worth $15M on the season, which means he should be worth $20M by the end of the year. While teams should be paying players based on their expected future production, we all know once a guy reaches free agency, more often than not, he'll get paid based on his historical performance.

 

Again, I'm not saying I'd give Choo $20M per year, but some GM likely will do that or something close to it.

 

I know, which means this is a dumb argument because it's a bad idea.

Not a difference maker, 31 y.o., and with the added money from the TV deal, the free agents on the market will be way overpaid.

I agree with your last comment, but 1B is the one position that doesn't always have a ton of demand in the free agent market. Plus Morales' overall numbers will be somewhat diminished from playing in Safeco. If you can get him at a reasonable price, which is obviously not a guarantee, I'd easily sign him to a 3 year deal and buy us some time for Barnum or another prospect to be ready to take the reigns.

There will be no available free agents next year who will be worth more than a 2-year contract to the Sox.

if the White sox move both peavy and rios you are correct, no reason to sign anyone like that. If they do not move those guys, then a big signing makes a lot of sense, and OF starts looking like a place to do it.

I agree with your last comment, but 1B is the one position that doesn't always have a ton of demand in the free agent market. Plus Morales' overall numbers will be somewhat diminished from playing in Safeco. If you can get him at a reasonable price, which is obviously not a guarantee, I'd easily sign him to a 3 year deal and buy us some time for Barnum or another prospect to be ready to take the reigns.

Again depends on what happens over the next week. If they move everyone I wouldn't be opposed to giving Viciedo, Flowers, Wilkins, and whomever else they can find a chance to fight it out and see if any of them can become an actual impact bat.

...now it was about that time that I notice this girl scout was wearing a ratty old Indians jersey and limping profusely...

 

DAMN IT, GRADY SIZEMORE! I'M NOT GIVIN YOU NO $3,500,000 TO SIT ON THE DL!

Again depends on what happens over the next week. If they move everyone I wouldn't be opposed to giving Viciedo, Flowers, Wilkins, and whomever else they can find a chance to fight it out and see if any of them can become an actual impact bat.

Putting these three in a group is kind of weird.

Viciedo is still a key player in their plans moving ahead.

Putting these three in a group is kind of weird.

Viciedo is still a key player in their plans moving ahead.

Those are "cheap guys the Sox have who could play some 1b next year, have some power, and are under the Soxs control next year and longer."

 

If any of them could become an effective bat somewhere its a win and the Sox have to give up nothing to get them.

I think the lineup is more like:

 

CF De Aza

2B Beckham

1B Viciedo

DH Dunn

RF Corey Hart (1 year deal)

SS Ramirez

3B Gillespie/Keppinger

C Phegley

LF David Murphy (1 year deal)

 

EDIT: Traditionally the Sox have had to overpay to even be in the conversation for free agents. I dont expect this year will be any different.

Edited July 23, 201312 yr by IowaSoxFan