Better than Quintana? Do you mean better relative to the cost?

 

He's pitched over 200 innings with a high strikeout rate and a high walk rate and managed to post a 3.41 ERA over that time as he was jerked in and out of the rotation. He lost his "best" pitch, his screwball, and still pitches well. He could plausibly be perceived as an ace in the making with his ability to miss bats and make it in the MLB without all of the best circumstances.

 

Certainly, others see a high FIP and wonder what the deal is. Those may prove correct in the long run - though I think pitchers like Hector are the most likely to defy FIP. Guys who tend to cluster their bouts of free baserunners will, by the nature of clustering, be operating differently than advanced metrics like this assume. That is to say that if his walks are not randomly, unbiasedly distributed, then FIP will be inaccurate. Too soon to tell if that is the case.

 

I'm just saying that it is plausible that there are teams that might prefer Hector, with all things being equal. They would see him as a hot prospect with MLB experience, whereas those teams would see Quintana as a more finished product or worse.

Castro has had knee issues on and off for for 3 seasons. He had another surgery in September after going on DL late in year. Maybe why he is available.

Castro has had knee issues on and off for for 3 seasons. He had another surgery in September after going on DL late in year. Maybe why he is available.

 

I was unaware of that.

 

Yeah, that would lower my price to just Hector + a prospect like Petricka or Thompson.

I'd rather go all the way and offer them Quintana + Carlos Sanchez + Phegley for Castro, Altuve, and SS DeShields Jr/3B Rio Ruiz.

I'd rather go all the way and offer them Quintana + Carlos Sanchez + Phegley for Castro, Altuve, and SS DeShields Jr/3B Rio Ruiz.

 

If we upgrade significantly at enough other positions, I could live with one year of Phegley. Conceivably the packages we are talking about are the same ones we'd offer for most decent young guys. I'd prefer a young badass at third and another year of Pheg if I had to pick I guess.

If we upgrade significantly at enough other positions, I could live with one year of Phegley. Conceivably the packages we are talking about are the same ones we'd offer for most decent young guys. I'd prefer a young badass at third and another year of Pheg if I had to pick I guess.

 

Well Semien is not a young badass 3B, but I would love him to take over 3B if it meant we had Altuve at 2B. Although I can't imagine the Astros would trade away their 2 best young players, even though Quintana would immediately become their #1 starter.

I'd rather go all the way and offer them Quintana + Carlos Sanchez + Phegley for Castro, Altuve, and SS DeShields Jr/3B Rio Ruiz.

 

That seems way off of what they would ask, and I don't know why they'd trade prospects anyways. Realistically, they see a guy who was really good at the MLB level last year, a young, slap hitting middle infielder who struggled last year, and a AAAA catcher who killed AAA pitching and was absolutely brutal at the MLB level. In that package, I think they'd be asking for some group of Semien/Johnson/Beck/Snodgress/Rienzo/M. Johnson/Hawkins/Petricka/Webb, among others.

 

If you offered Quintana, Beck, Micah Johnson, and Petricka, then yes, you may be able to get that package.

I posted in one of the other off-season threads that Rick Hahn's plan for filling the catcher hole should be Jason Castro or bust.

 

A trade with the Astros could also net the Sox a leftie for the backend of the bullpen in Kevin Chapman - a hard thrower with a decent-enough secondary pitch (IE: Coop will fix him).

 

Edited November 13, 201312 yr by Jillian Michaels' Abs

He's only had one good season but it was his first full season. We need young upside, right? BABIP was high but not insanely high. 10% walk rate!

 

What makes Santiago more valuable? He's had one good season that had all kinds of signs of unsustainable success.

 

I am saying they hold about equal value to me. Santiago is younger, they both had break out seasons this year, but Castro is now in his arb years. I would do a Santiago for Castro swap, just not sure how much else I would give up to facilitate a deal. Maybe Petricka and Snodgress, but not high ceiling prospects.

I am saying they hold about equal value to me. Santiago is younger, they both had break out seasons this year, but Castro is now in his arb years. I would do a Santiago for Castro swap, just not sure how much else I would give up to facilitate a deal. Maybe Petricka and Snodgress, but not high ceiling prospects.

 

Gotcha. Yeah more years of team control should make a difference.