Odds on Paulino?

[Balta1701]

$24M to spend on who?

We will see what their needs shape up to be at the end of the season. It certainly looks like a portion of that extra $12 million will have to go to finding a reliever or two.

[Marty34]

We will see what their needs shape up to be at the end of the season. It certainly looks like a portion of that extra $12 million will have to go to finding a reliever or two.

 

Any names? Traditionally, the Sox go cheap on their pens. I doubt they will spend money on that until the rotation is addressed.

Edited April 20, 2014 by Marty34

[Balta1701]

Any names? Traditionally, the Sox go cheap on their pens. I doubt they will spend poney on that until the rotation is addressed.

I don't know what they'll need to do on the rotation yet, Erik Johnson is still a rookie and we don't know what we have in him yet. His velocity dip is troubling even though it's early. We also still have a lot of other guys in AA or higher who we don't know how they'll close their seasons (Rienzo, for example, got off to a poor start in 2013 and really caught fire around the start of June). I'll see what I think of Beck here in a couple weeks.

 

Just for an example, everyone would have replaced Tyler Flowers coming into this season if we were competing and as of now he's been one of our few bright spots. He'll come back down to Earth, but he's suddenly showing promise as a potential major leaguer again. And there's still a good chance that some guys out of Beckham, Flowers, Gillaspie, and De Aza will be moved before the end of the year - that could provide bullpen assistance as well.

[Marty34]

The Cubs risked $6 million with Feldman. They wound up paying him $3 million and turned him into Arrieta and Strop. If that is upside, I think the Sox wojld be better using the $6 million on international free agents and the penalty for going over their allocation.

 

The Sox were going to trade Paulino for someone better than Paulino at the deadline, thing is as you point out, someone better than Paulino still wouldn't be worth the signing.

[Marty34]

I don't know what they'll need to do on the rotation yet, Erik Johnson is still a rookie and we don't know what we have in him yet. His velocity dip is troubling even though it's early. We also still have a lot of other guys in AA or higher who we don't know how they'll close their seasons (Rienzo, for example, got off to a poor start in 2013 and really caught fire around the start of June). I'll see what I think of Beck here in a couple weeks.

 

Just for an example, everyone would have replaced Tyler Flowers coming into this season if we were competing and as of now he's been one of our few bright spots. He'll come back down to Earth, but he's suddenly showing promise as a potential major leaguer again. And there's still a good chance that some guys out of Beckham, Flowers, Gillaspie, and De Aza will be moved before the end of the year - that could provide bullpen assistance as well.

 

Are you ruling out guys like Scherzer, Lester, and Shields?

[Balta1701]

Are you ruling out guys like Scherzer, Lester, and Shields?

Lester yes because I don't think the Sox will have any need of another LH starter when their 2 best ones are already lefties. The other 2? I don't know, I'd guess because I still think the White Sox have enough pitching on its way that a 9-figure deal for a starter would be counter-productive.

 

But then again, if the catcher's spot winds up being solidified this year and Davidson gets handed 3b at some point and succeeds, and Viciedo keeps hititng like this, their list of actual needs long-term starts shrinking a lot.

[Marty34]

Lester yes because I don't think the Sox will have any need of another LH starter when their 2 best ones are already lefties. The other 2? I don't know, I'd guess because I still think the White Sox have enough pitching on its way that a 9-figure deal for a starter would be counter-productive.

 

But then again, if the catcher's spot winds up being solidified this year and Davidson gets handed 3b at some point and succeeds, and Viciedo keeps hititng like this, their list of actual needs long-term starts shrinking a lot.

 

The Sox will not outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, among others for the top of the free agent pitching market. After those guys, not much left. That's why signing a mid-rotation guy this offseason made sense.

[Balta1701]

The Sox will not outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, among others for the top of the free agent pitching market. After those guys, not much left. That's why signing a mid-rotation guy this offseason made sense.

"Not much left" =

Ervin Santana

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Bruce Chen *

Wei-Yin Chen *

Kevin Correia

Johnny Cueto *

Jorge De La Rosa

Ryan Dempster

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Yovani Gallardo *

Jason Hammel

J.A. Happ *

Aaron Harang

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Luke Hochevar

Hisashi Iwakuma

Josh Johnson

Kyle Kendrick

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Colby Lewis

Jon Lester

Paul Maholm

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Morrow *

Jeff Niemann

Ross Ohlendorf

Felipe Paulino *

Jake Peavy

Wandy Rodriguez

Carlos Villanueva

Ryan Vogelsong

Edinson Volquez

Jerome Williams

 

 

Multiple guys on that list who could easily fill a back of the rotation slot as reliably as the guys you wanted to spend money on last year.

[Marty34]

"Not much left" =

Ervin Santana

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Bruce Chen *

Wei-Yin Chen *

Kevin Correia

Johnny Cueto *

Jorge De La Rosa

Ryan Dempster

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Yovani Gallardo *

Jason Hammel

J.A. Happ *

Aaron Harang

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Luke Hochevar

Hisashi Iwakuma

Josh Johnson

Kyle Kendrick

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Colby Lewis

Jon Lester

Paul Maholm

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Morrow *

Jeff Niemann

Ross Ohlendorf

Felipe Paulino *

Jake Peavy

Wandy Rodriguez

Carlos Villanueva

Ryan Vogelsong

Edinson Volquez

Jerome Williams

 

 

Multiple guys on that list who could easily fill a back of the rotation slot as reliably as the guys you wanted to spend money on last year.

 

Point them out for me, please.

[ILMOU]

The Sox will not outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, among others for the top of the free agent pitching market. After those guys, not much left. That's why signing a mid-rotation guy this offseason made sense.

You act like the Yankees go whole hog on FA's every year - they don't. They did in '09 and this past offseason will very little in between. They have to address 2B, 3B and SS, among other positions. We can be plenty competitive for ANY of the available FA's, IF we choose.

[Balta1701]

Point them out for me, please.

Ervin Santana

Brett Anderson (been at least as consistent as Jiminez in his career)

AJ Burnett (getting up there in years, a 1-2 year deal could readily fill in back of rotation)

Bruce Chen (Worth 3 WAR to the White Sox solely because the White Sox would not have to face him)

Kevin Correia (should be cheap back of the rotation option, probably in the 2-3 years, $5-6 million a year range)

Johnny Cueto ($10 million option that Reds may/may not pick up based on health. would make sense at perhaps that $ amount, give or take).

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd (probably will be shooting for a multi-year deal if he can have a healthy rest of the season this year)

Aaron Harang - literally carrying Braves rotation right now after no one wanted him (a lesson right there).

Jason Hammel - AL East experienced, back of the rotation option

JA Happ - another guy with an injury history who could be had for 1-2 years

Robert Hernandez (Fausto) - put up ERA in mid 4's last year, probably available on cheap 1 year deals.

Hiroki Kuroda - will be 40 next year but has been **** great the last couple years in late 30's. If we're shooting for a competitive team next year might be my favorite name on this list for a 1-2 year offer.

Colby Lewis - literally beat us last night.

John Lannan - another guy whos been hurt but not far removed from putting up sub-4 ERA's and still on the good side of 30.

Paul Maholm - Regularly solid, unspectacular contributor to several teams, could be really good at filling 5th starter spot cheaply.

Justin Masterson - will be pricey but would fill rotation role after Quintana for multiple years. Really good to have an extra $12 million available here.

Brandon McCarthy - another injury name, worth a shot if we also have another young guy like Beck we think can fill in when he gets hurt

Jake Peavy - we kinda know what he has & doesn't.

Jeff Neimann - regularly puts up an ERA aroudn 4 with the Rays. I'd expect him to go in that 4/$48 range you're obsessed with.

Wandy Rodriguez - solid but aging vet. Probably available cheaply on a 1 year deal.

Ryan Vogelsong - veteran who could probably fill 100+ innings for less than $5 mil.

Carlos Villanueva - again will give you >100 innigns with an ERA around 4.5 ish.

Edinson Volquez - maybe the most exciting stuff on the list, will be interesting to see what he does numbers-wise this year.

Jerome Williams - AL-experienced, could probably be had cheaply, will eat innings as a 4/5 and give a chance to win some games.

 

So at the level where you wanted to throw money away this seaosn or cheaper, there's about 20 guys who could be had for various degrees fo cost and performance depending on what we actually need (i.e. what Johnson and Beck and others do this year). So either go through and tell me why those guys don't exist or will be priced out of the White Sox's range or go away.

[southsider2k5]

"Not much left" =

Ervin Santana

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Bruce Chen *

Wei-Yin Chen *

Kevin Correia

Johnny Cueto *

Jorge De La Rosa

Ryan Dempster

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Yovani Gallardo *

Jason Hammel

J.A. Happ *

Aaron Harang

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Luke Hochevar

Hisashi Iwakuma

Josh Johnson

Kyle Kendrick

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Colby Lewis

Jon Lester

Paul Maholm

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Morrow *

Jeff Niemann

Ross Ohlendorf

Felipe Paulino *

Jake Peavy

Wandy Rodriguez

Carlos Villanueva

Ryan Vogelsong

Edinson Volquez

Jerome Williams

 

 

Multiple guys on that list who could easily fill a back of the rotation slot as reliably as the guys you wanted to spend money on last year.

 

Oh look, it is a list of the exact same crap we passed on this year.

[Balta1701]

Oh look, it is a list of the exact same crap we passed on this year.

The same level guys are available every year to fill mid to back of the rotation slots. Only 1 person insists that isn't the case for some reason.

[Dick Allen]

If the Sox are successful in the least, signing a guy like Santana will cost a first round pick. It is funny how Jimenez's start is mentioned a lot, but no one mentions Santana.

 

If your goal is not to have the best pitching staff, just some run of the mill 4th or 5th starter, there is a lot on that list to at least have some interest. If your goal is World Series, the guys on that list that you really would be interested in are going to cost close to 9 figures, if not 9 figures.

Edited April 20, 2014 by Dick Allen

[ScottyDo]

If the Sox are successful in the least, signing a guy like Santana will cost a first round pick. It is funny how Jimenez's start is mentioned a lot, but no one mentions Santana.

 

If your goal is not to have the best pitching staff, just some run of the mill 4th or 5th starter, there is a lot on that list to at least have some interest. If your goal is World Series, the guys on that list that you really would be interested in are going to cost close to 9 figures, if not 9 figures.

Are you talking about World Series 2015 or World Series 2016-2018? Because that's probably what we're looking at here, optimistically.

[Dick Allen]

Are you talking about World Series 2015 or World Series 2016-2018? Because that's probably what we're looking at here, optimistically.

You can look at it either way, but it behooves the White Sox to speed up the pace. Sale and Q are a great 1/2 punch, but the way pitchers have been dropping, the longer they pitch pretty much meaningless games, the bigger the waste and actual cost is.

Danks has been pretty good himself.

 

One big reason why I wanted them to go after Jimenez or Santana was the price in dollars and in draft picks. If the Sox aren't horrible again, it is going to cost a first round draft pick.

[southsider2k5]

If the Sox are successful in the least, signing a guy like Santana will cost a first round pick. It is funny how Jimenez's start is mentioned a lot, but no one mentions Santana.

 

If your goal is not to have the best pitching staff, just some run of the mill 4th or 5th starter, there is a lot on that list to at least have some interest. If your goal is World Series, the guys on that list that you really would be interested in are going to cost close to 9 figures, if not 9 figures.

 

Kind of like you only mentioning failures on the Sox?

[Balta1701]

If the Sox are successful in the least, signing a guy like Santana will cost a first round pick. It is funny how Jimenez's start is mentioned a lot, but no one mentions Santana.

 

If your goal is not to have the best pitching staff, just some run of the mill 4th or 5th starter, there is a lot on that list to at least have some interest. If your goal is World Series, the guys on that list that you really would be interested in are going to cost close to 9 figures, if not 9 figures.

Ervin Santana has gotten off to one of the best starts in baseball.

 

If the White Sox replaced Felipe Paulino, one of the worst starters in baseball, with Ervin Santana, one of the best for the first few times out...their team ERA would go fromm 29th to about 25th in MLB.

 

Clearly that's the kind of move that would have put them over the top.

[Balta1701]

You can look at it either way, but it behooves the White Sox to speed up the pace. Sale and Q are a great 1/2 punch, but the way pitchers have been dropping, the longer they pitch pretty much meaningless games, the bigger the waste and actual cost is.

Danks has been pretty good himself.

 

One big reason why I wanted them to go after Jimenez or Santana was the price in dollars and in draft picks. If the Sox aren't horrible again, it is going to cost a first round draft pick.

Well, the good news is...by not signing either of those guys, the Sox have helped make sure it only costs them a 2nd round pick to sign a FA next year.

[ILMOU]

Well, the good news is...by not signing either of those guys, the Sox have helped make sure it only costs them a 2nd round pick to sign a FA next year.

We'll see. I have a feeling that it will be close. 74 wins was the total for the 10th and 11th worst teams last year - I think we'll win tiebreakers by being worse than all but Stros/Fish in 2013.

 

Could see some late September tankage - maybe we'll want another look at Axe after all.

Edited April 20, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[Dick Allen]

Ervin Santana has gotten off to one of the best starts in baseball.

 

If the White Sox replaced Felipe Paulino, one of the worst starters in baseball, with Ervin Santana, one of the best for the first few times out...their team ERA would go fromm 29th to about 25th in MLB.

 

Clearly that's the kind of move that would have put them over the top.

Maybe not, but they are 2 games out of first. A little less wear and tear on the bullpen might go a long way, and if you signed him to a multiyear deal, he would already be in place for next year.

[Balta1701]

Maybe not, but they are 2 games out of first. A little less wear and tear on the bullpen might go a long way, and if you signed him to a multiyear deal, he would already be in place for next year.

They are 2 games out of first...and 4th in their division, 0.5 games out of last.

[greg775]

They are 2 games out of first...and 4th in their division, 0.5 games out of last.

 

I guess overachieving isn't on the table in sports nowadays. If we had gotten a good starter instead of that stiff Paulino we'd have a rotation of Danks, Sale, Q, good pitcher. Not half bad. Then acquire a couple good relievers (Sox had the money) and let some guys overachieve. But no. We suck on paper so we have to suck again this year is how some people seem to feel.

[Dick Allen]

They are 2 games out of first...and 4th in their division, 0.5 games out of last.

Wow. They should just pack it in.

[Balta1701]

I guess overachieving isn't on the table in sports nowadays. If we had gotten a good starter instead of that stiff Paulino we'd have a rotation of Danks, Sale, Q, good pitcher. Not half bad. Then acquire a couple good relievers (Sox had the money) and let some guys overachieve. But no. We suck on paper so we have to suck again this year is how some people seem to feel.

And look what has happened already in reality. Garcia out for the season, Jones out for an extended period dramatically weakening the bullpen, Lindstrom injured most of ST and poor out of the gates, Beckham hurt and hitting below .200 at AA in rehab stint, Semien seeming very much not ready, Eaton banged up, the one bullpen pitcher we did spend money on disappointing, Abreu needing coaching even about basic footwork at 1b.

 

A couple guys have achieved, Gillaspie and Flowers and Viciedo for example, but this team is a really weak team right now. They might not be by the end of the season as these guys grow up, but this is a basement team right now. A couple guys overachieving would almost always be balanced by a couple guys struggling, and now we've got one of our pieces that destroyed his shoulder on a dive to boot.