SoxBlanco

How do all those words you typed have anything to do with the post you quoted? We were discussing how players can sometimes struggle in AAA and then succeed in the majors, like Colson. It had nothing to do with using Smith in the bullpen.

Agreed. The numbers can especially be misleading for pitchers because we don’t know what they are being asked to work on.

When do people expect them to get the call up? Hopefully they follow Colson’s strategy of dominating in the majors after looking shaky in AA and/or AAA prior to getting the call. Seems like many fans have faded on both of them, similar to how they faded on Colson.

This was my first thought as well. “Highly likely” could just be another way to say front runner.

Good call. The 2018 draft is a pretty depressing list of names.

That stretch in Charlotte for Baldwin was insane. It honestly felt like he went deep every single game for a couple weeks.

Never thought there would come a time where Robert, at age 28, would have the lowest wRC+ projection in the lineup.

Really? You think they would make a decision now and then not change no matter what happens between now and the draft? Roch is the obvious pick right now. They would 100% pick him if the draft happened tomorrow. But they will obviously see how everything plays out.

How are you feeling about Smith? He had a solid showing in the AFL, I believe. Not sure how much that matters, but it seemed like he was getting better near the end of minor league season, as well.

You can get away with it if your starting 2B can play SS.

Love the Bonemer ranking. Credit to @Autumn Dreamin for this link:

Thanks. I didn’t realize Skubal had that velocity increase. You didn’t really answer the questions from my first paragraph, so I turned to Chat. It sounds like the run value stats are measuring results more than pure stuff, similar to ERA. Does that sound right? You could locate a perfect fastball with the bases loaded, but if the hitter breaks his bat and bloops one in for a couple RBI, it’s hurting your fastball run value (just like it’s hurting your ERA). Now, usually the best pitchers have the best ERA, so I’m guessing the best pitchers also have the best pitching run value stats. But it sounds like stats like FIP and xERA would be better predictors of future success. Would you agree with that?

You know much more about advanced stats than I do, so I have some questions for you. I’m curious how much the run value stats you cited predict future success. I’m also curious if they are more results based like ERA, or if they are more like FIP? I decided to look at Cannon’s page. In 2024, he was in the 47th percentile in fastball run value. In 2025, he was in the 3rd percentile of fastball run value. So did his fastball get that much worse? Or is there some luck involved there? I then wanted to look at an elite pitcher. I chose Tarik Skubal. In 2021 (his first full season), he was in the 20th percentile in pitching run value. Then he jumped to 78th in 2022, 93rd in 2023, and 100th in 2024 and 2025. Is that kind of jump after a rookie season extremely rare?