Look at Ray Ray Run

I would be very surprised if ohearn got 30 million. I'm saying any 2 year deal doesn't top 11 per.

I think you could be right, but Cease being healthy relative to the rest of the league over the past 5 years has a lot of value. Especially with his stuff. I'm not sure he'll ever learn to really pitch, but if he does as he ages I could see him having a pretty reasonable aging curve through his age 33-34 season which would make this a nice deal. If he throws 165+ innings with a FIP below 3.8, he's definitely worth the deal. I don't think that's too far fetched.

Show me the r value of ZIPs lack-of-predictive qualities, and also show me that the variance for youth is statistically significant when compared to others. It surprises me that people still post stuff like you do with very little understanding of what ZIPS does and with very little evidence to refute it. Of course it shouldn't be used for projecting records - it normalizes and projects playing time in a way that doesn't equate directly to wins and losses and isn't actually correlated directly to expected playing time.

Bump

Pal you literally said in a post one month ago that he was a part of your vision if a 70+ win team next year.

I love watching your opinion of players eb and weave with Getz moves. Month ago Tauch was a part of a 70 win team next year but since Getz nontendered him he must be cooked.

In my opinion, improving a player means moving them off their trajectory/projected path. Vargas is very much in line with his projections when the Sox acquired him. Therefore, I hesitate to call that a vast improvement. Now if the Sox got/get something out of Curtis Mead, that would be a big improvement and deserving of credit.

His big improvement? Huh. The guy put up numbers last year that were like 4% better than his projections when the Sox acquired him.

I think this says his medicals are shot. Which wouldn't be surprising.

He's a big leaguer and they need more of those, so it wouldn't be a bad addition to the team but him falling off a cliff wouldn't be surprising either.

Not sure how it's not business as usual. It would be signing a 32 year old coming off a career year... A guy who has graded out as a negative defender every year of his career, and by a good bit. Someone who between age 24 and 29 basically was worth 0 WAR over 450ish games. He won't demand a big contract, he's a strong-side-of-platoon bat, and he's projected for a little over 1 WAR. This is absolutely business as usual.

This is fair. Didnt realize i selected so late!! Although I did say they would win in the high 50's in other spots and that they definitely wouldnt break their own record.

Yeah... that's what I said.

Moreno at least has been trying to win his entire tenure. Trying to win is much more valuable than what Jerry has been doing imo. That said, obviously John Fisher is worse than Jerry. He doesn't spend any money or try to win, he actively forces stars out of town, he tanked the team and stadium in Oakland so he could move the team to Vegas who doesn't even want a team, and he's now playing in Sacramento in a minor league sham of a stadium. He basically ran a public hate-campaign against Oakland and their fans. At least Jerry has the respect to hate us mostly in private. Jerry has had periods where he invested to win. While the A's have had some nice seasons, it's been in spite of Fisher.

Fajardo is rising. I think we see him in the top 15 in some publications at start of next year.