Look at Ray Ray Run

In the projection value of a young player? Not much. In the fv projection of an older reliever? Not much Which is my point entirely.

Sure, but the best way to win 1 world series is to maximize your playoff appearances. The best way to win a roll of the craps dice is to roll the dice more than once. I think it increases their chances this year, but by how much? Who can say. I think it potentially decreases their chances next year and beyond. What would you rather have done? Pay Kimbrel 16 million next year, or give Rodon 85 million over 4 years? Based on the Sox spending habits, they certainly won't be doing both. Just as I absolutely hated investing our primary off-season resources in a closer, I absolutely hate investing our primary trade assets in a bullpen arm, but that doesn't mean it doesn't improve their chances this year; which is great.

What big prospects did the Dodgers trade for Jansen? And to use the Dodgers, they made the horrible trade of sending maybe the best young hitter in baseball to the Astros for a rental reliever. A deal I bet they wish they never made.

I'm a big Madrigal fan, but I do have concerns about durability. I will never ever be a buy high, sell low guy. Just 4 months ago you could have had Kimbrel for Blake Rutherford, and Madrigal/Heuer likely could have netted you a controlled and cheap high quality position player or SP (like German Marquez) with maybe something smaller thrown in. Now four months later you're buying high on Kimbrel and selling low/injured on those two guys. That's never a great investment strategy.

Your optimism about this team and spending money on FA's is very enviable, but I would bet any amount of money you want that Cesar Hernandez is the 2nd baseman next year and this team will not make a major splash in FA (major being over 100 million).

Or I care about the previous 3 years as a key indicator of projected value like every other modeler in the history of the world who heavily weighs the three previous years over the years prior? Hope that helps!

This is exactly how I feel. Great teams don't spend a high percentage of their payroll on relievers. It's unreliable and inefficient. Starting this year, EVERYONE thought the White Sox had a dominant bullpen and it was the strength of their team. 4 months later everyone was desperate to add bullpen pieces. Looks like the Sox didn't learn their lesson.

I don't love the deal, but it just can't be argued how great it is for this year. And I think the Sox need to capitalize on any season they make the playoffs given how not often it happens. The Sox pitching staff is ready to roll now and they fixed their biggest issue (the bullpen). It's dominant and it's exciting and they're going to be amazing to watch. The process itself just feels really poor, but gotta trust their internal evaluations. I would have been much more pissed if it were Crochet, given that the difference between Crochet and Kimbrel the rest of this season is like 3-4 runs.

I'll take Hendriks all day everyday as well. People love focusing on like 30-40 inning samples for relievers and deciding that's who is better. It's absurd. Last year Codi Heuer was unhittable for a 35 inning stretch, this year no one trusts him. Hendriks has been way more consistent and the walks are still scary for Kimbrel.

Can't emphasize it enough, it's great for this year. Trading Heuer at the bottom point of his value and maybe Madrigal with value down due to injury could suck too.

I don't really care what 28 year old Kimbrel did. He's 33 going on 34. Guys who age typically don't permanently return to their peak years.

My beef is investing in RP's. It's just a terrible strategy. If I'm trading my assets, I'm trading for a Position player. Why not do Crochet, Madrigal and Burger for a Buxton? I'd like to shove like that.

oh, only 1/2 half of a season matters for relievers? You could have had Kimbrel, this past off-season, for a bag of balls.

And the two years prior he was worth -1 fWAR. Relievers are volatile as all hell. Which is why giving up big time assets for them instead of just paying them/developing them internally is overly risky.

The difference between Iglesias and Kimbrel was not at all "massive." Over the past three year sample, Iglesias has been better than Kimbrel. Has Kimbrel been lights out this year? Yes, does that mean he will be next year? No.

Yeah, now instead of having to fill just one hole in RF this off-season while adding big money at RP, they have the big money at RP, and have to fill two holes. And for everyone saying this is how you win the post-season; those dominant bullpens in KC and etc weren't taking up 25% of the teams payroll. Makes this year more exciting, but I also can't get over how absolutely terrible Kimbrel was the past two years. The volatility of RP's make investing heavily in them so damn stupid.

Yup, I'm excited as shit for this year and this makes them better and it's great. I just hate giving up a young position player for a damn reliever. Relievers are whatever. Even Kimbrel was complete trash the previous two years. Just a lot of risk with relievers, and their impact is on so few innings. The Sox could have just SPENT money on a big time reliever too, they didn't have to trade assets which makes it even more maddening. Love it for this year though. Fearful we'll regret it next year and beyond though. Who cares if we cash in this year, but if we don't this could suck. I really thought Madrigal complimented this roster and lineup perfectly.

yeah, this is a concern and the reason I don't hate this nearly as much as the Crochet leak.

Funny that the Chapman trade is often looked at as the beginning of the end of the Cubs ability to dominate - as overpaying for 2 months of a closer was looked upon poorly - and here the Sox are a few years later paying a ton for 2 months (+1 year) of a set up guy. It's a shame that none of the reliever prospects panned out because this sucks to pay that much in assets to acquire a bullpen guy.

Man, Heuer is whatever but 6 years of Madrigal for a RP. That's better than Crochet and the ceiling isn't as high but wow.

oh, so everything they've done and said in my entire life time doesn't count? got it.

It makes the team better this year, which is great. I want them to go for it, I just absolutely hate the process.

This is exactly how I feel. A penny pinching organization trading 6 years of a pitcher for a set up man making 16 million. I quit.

If true, I don't get it at all.

But why pay the 1 1/2 year price for a guy you're going to have for 2 months?