Look at Ray Ray Run

Yeah, they left themselves enough money available that they still have another big signing in their back pocket if they need to use it. They have enough questionable but hopeful arm talent (stiever, Lambert, dunning and the young guys) that they can bank on 2 of their prospects reaching ceilings. Giolito can match up vs anyone's 1 right now. Hell maybe the sox get a surprise and reylo puts it together with this little push. The important thing is they now have a realistic hope.

Lastly, the sox have maintained quite a bit of financial flexibility even after these signings this off season.. they've also lined the end of the deals up well with the core getting more expensive. They also left plenty of money to add one more impact player next off season if they see certain players weren't working out.

At this point you can genuinely argue that the sox are banking on a realistic set of outcomes from their top prospects as opposed to betting on them all reaching their top 10% outcomes.

Yeah but this team always needed that to happen. Heck, maybe they get a surprise and stiever is a top line guy. They had a lot of high end stuff talent; keuchel is a really nice change of pace and he knows how to pitch.

After further thought, I think it's more important that this signing was actually available to pitch than it was that he was great when he pitched. Ryu was a nice thought but investing in a starter who doesnt start would have been the worst thing this team could of done. I understand leaning towards Keuchel in the choice between the two given that they already had top of the rotation talents and needed someone that could give them 200 innings.

At this point, what you're hoping for in development becomes enough to propel the team to a level of contention. While they still need things to break well for them, the things they need to break well are realistic expectations for some of the young pieces - as opposed to being top end outcomes. Theyve now put themselves in a position that of Michael kopech is a star... or Dylan cease is a star, they actually can compete at the top. If neither were any good this was always going to be a struggle. I dont love Keuchel but I understand his fit and baseball games finally matter again! To sox fans that are upset and/or disappointed I honestly have no idea what their expectations were. The sox offered the most to wheeler and didnt get him so they got a dependable and reliable starter.

What do the twins do assuming Ryu stays out west?

I dont think 162 is more draining or dangerous thann155.

Hes painful, but he knows what hes doing out there. He doesnt get deep into games - he never really did - and he had shoulder issues last year. Shoulder issues are scary and he came back strong but hes not getting younger. It's funny because Gio was kind of Robbie Ray before Robbie Ray. Ray doesnt get deep into games, walks a ton of guys but k's people. Gio really is effectively wild at this point in his career - he doesnt give you a lot to hit.

Hes 24 years old, he really should be suffering from hamstring tears and strains frequently. I agree with your premise and point, playing through a leg muscle injury is idiotic, but he shouldnt be suffering them with great frequency.

Just saw the quoted posted. 4.8 is next year for Lindor, 5.2 is the year following. And it's just a PA difference really. Rates are about identical. I Appreciate the questions.

I'd have to look at my positional peaks. They are tied to PA and age. So just brainstorming, lindor may be approaching his projected defensive peak. I think tim will continue to get better, so my opinion sides with you, but if his defense gets worse or declines at 28, 29 and 30 that drives his WAR down. I believe my SS defensive peak is 26/27 seasons assuming 4-5 year service time. Defense drops younger than offense. My Lindor difference is simply a games played discrepancy. I have him at 144 games next year and 155 in his age 27 season. I should probably normalize games played to 150 - but I tend to focus on my WAR/600 projections more. His WAR/600 is almost exactly the same both years.

Really nice deal for sure.

But why would Wood, in a season in which he wants to rebuild his value, take a deal to be a back-up with no guaranteed job all year?

I mean, he played 149 two years ago but I get your point. Glad to see this is a focal point of his off-season and I am certainly not going to be one who doubts him when he wants to obtain something.

After seeing his quote about Abreu and wanting to be here for life too, the Sox should pounce on an extension offer tomorrow! lol

Yeah, he said it was from a lack of flexibility and being overly tight.

Anderson's past still has some weight here, even with me weighting 2019 more than most publicly available publication. As for Lindor, we see a similar thing, as I weigh the last 18 months more than the last 36 months by nearly 1.8 times. This will skew my projections to be impacted, maybe too much, by some recency bias but I like that aggressive outlook. Also, Anderson's defense I can't really project much better than below average - despite his tools. I don't even know how to write a model to account for skills (range) over outcomes defensively; I'm not smart enough. If Anderson's defense improves, those projections go up 1-2 WAR a year.

If he improved over last year and stayed healthy, you're looking at a 7-8 WAR season (Mookie and Trout territory). I'll take another 5 WAR season from the guy if that's OK with him though.

Yeah, I think the Abreu thing does matter. I know people don't want to hear it, but it's amazing to hear someone like Mazara talk about Abreu with such glowing endorsement even though they just met. It's even more exciting to see Yoan glowing about the Sox extending him after he said he said he wanted to be here for life... then Yoan says the same thing.

"He believes this work will help give him the stamina late in the year to boost his stolen base totals, but admits that when he said improving that was his big goal for 2020, it was really just the most specific thing he could think of. “Overall I think I can do better in every aspect of the game, even much better than I did last year,” Moncada said. And the biggest piece and line in this entire article: Moncada, when speaking of the loyalty and appreciation the Sox showed to Abreu said: “I would like to stay here,” Moncada said through Russo. “I think this is a very good organization with a lot of good people. Definitely I would like to stay here and be a White Sox forever too.” Actions speak louder than words, and players have said this before only to leave but citing how they took care of Abreu as a reason for why he wants to stay for life too is certainly exciting. And one quote from Timmy just for more love: (Timmy lives in Chicago in the off-season despite the winters) “I play here so I think it’s only right,” said Anderson, who lives in Flossmoor with his wife Bria and their two daughters. “To be able to play here and go home to my kids every night. But for the most part, man, it kind of feels like home. I came here and felt connected instantly.”

I'm 99.9% sure this tweet was directed right at Steve in this thread.

While he was of course lucky to have a 399 BABIP, it wasn't more lucky than a guy running a 340 BABIP with an expected at 300. Or a guy running a 320 with an expected at 280. The size of the number doesn't really matter, and Tim is certainly capable of improving his power and his defense which would off-set anything he lost from a .40 point BABIP spike.

https://theathletic.com/1476009/2019/12/20/yoan-moncadas-2020-goal-is-clear-play-every-single-game/?source=shared-article This is pretty exciting, and of course wonderful work by Fegan again. Here's to hoping Yoan gets out there for all 162 and starts a streak of longevity. In summary: After spending last year tirelessly working on his approach in the off-season - trying to get the most out of his elite tools - Moncada has shifted his focus on his legs and staying healthy for next year this off-season. Maybe this will mean Yoan is on the move more this next season as well.

Based on what?