Gene Honda Civic

The Mets are the only club in baseball that cares more about the headlines than the W column -- We've seen how that's worked out for them.

http://lite.espn.go.com/mlb/columnist?id=1977790 Nice to see 3 current/former farmhands making the list.

http://lite.espn.go.com/mlb/columnist?id=1977411

I predict this won't get done for another couple weeks, and the names involved will change several times

QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 09:13 PM) yeah -- nothing but Sosa crap -- Coop is on right now Caruthers -- http://thebaseballcube.com/profiles/CR/tbc5019.asp Fontenot -- http://thebaseballcube.com/profiles/FO/tbc5318.asp These two are mentioned in the Sosa trade and by Coop, I meant walker.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 09:12 PM) I just noticed hot stove baseball has been on tonight, has anyone been listening to it? yeah -- nothing but Sosa crap -- Coop is on right now Caruthers -- http://thebaseballcube.com/profiles/CR/tbc5019.asp Fontenot -- http://thebaseballcube.com/profiles/FO/tbc5318.asp These two are mentioned in the Sosa trade

QUOTE(whitesox91403 @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 08:27 PM) One other thing, isn't Barry Rozner a huge Cubs fan? I don't know why this has taken hold... Rozner grew up as an usher and vendor at Old Comiskey.... He didn't have those jobs because he was a Cubs fan. I've never seen anything written by him that would prove that he's anything other than an objective journalist, who does a good job walking the fine line of nuetrality in his columns. He'll take his jabs at the Sox/riensdorf, but there's an equal amount of shots at the Cubs and Sosa.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 08:04 PM) I don't think vizcaino is a free agent. http://www.mlb4u.com/0506FA.html http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/ Edit: It is his second year of arbitration. I thought it was his 3rd -- My mistake -- the point still stands.... Frank Uribe Dye Pods IGGY Rowand MB FG OH JC Hermanson MArte Politte? Are all guaranteed for 2006... If the rotation falls apart, or Rowand, Uribe, Hermanson can't earn thier contracts, we're in it deep.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 07:46 PM) We have pierz's rights along with garland next year. Which is kinda scary. What happens when this team wins 75 games in 05? Everett(buyout), Shingo(FA), Konerko(FA), and Vizcaino(FA) are the only ones who I can think of off the top of my head who we get out from under (unless guys like Harris, Pierz, Crede, Gload, perez aren't picked back up). We've resigned ourselves to this new style of play for the next couple years. This experiment has the opportunity to really blow up in KW's face. He'd take the team back down to '98/99 levels.

Sosa to B'more for Jerry Hairston and 4 minor Leaguers is big rumor floating around the net right now. Bruce Levine says many details still need to be ironed out.

Podsednik - 269/333/409 Iguchi - 270/333/399 Rowand - 295/350/525 Frank - 251/395/545 Pauly - 275/355/510 Dye - 270/340/475 Pierz - 295/325/445 Uribe - 265/305/455 Crede - 275/320/470 Gload - 295/345/445 Everett - 295/340/455 Buehrle - 3.95, 220IP Garcia - 4.15, 195IP El Duque - 4.75, 110IP Garland - 4.75, 200IP Contreras - 4.45, 175IP

Qwerty and I were just discussing projections, and I said that I could probably do better than any projection system because I had a better feel for the players, so here's you chance(and mine) to prove yourself... On offense just list avg/obp/slg for pitching just list ERA and IP Podsednik - Iguchi - Rowand - Frank - Pauly - Dye - Pierz - Uribe - Crede - Gload - Everett - Buehrle - Garcia - El Duque - Garland - Contreras - Abusing my mod powers, and pinning this in the in PHT. I'll move it back to the contest board later... Just looking to get some more traffic. I'll post my projectinos in a few minutes.

This site is great for that -- http://www.nationalchamps.net/Helmet_Project/

QUOTE(JimH @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 11:36 AM) The quote function is still baffling quickman ... his input is listed below: Just click the [Reply "] button. Then it should be just like the old board.

QUOTE(3E8 @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 05:25 PM) same IP? I don't have that powa -- I was just jokin around... I prolly shoulda added the green.

QUOTE(Palehosefan @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 02:28 PM) He apparently didn't hurt himself at all in the Senior Bowl and is projected by ESPN to be in the 3rd-4th round. Can't say I had heard of him before the mention on the board here. Just another Iowa walk-on who will be cashing checks from playing on Sundays.

LOL Jeckle create two accounts to feel special.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 28, 2005 -> 12:50 AM) I love it. Burns vs. Garland. He didn't agree with the results, so he just tossed those aside. :rolly Yas, I just did it for fun. I like Garland as much as the next guy. But the fact remains that over the the last three years he is exactly a league average pitcher(not that there's anything wrong with that) -- Burns was solidly above League average in '83, and for most of his career. Part of Garland's superiority in WARP3 was that he pitched 30 more innings than Burns and WARP is a counting stat. He also batted a few times, and probably fielded an abnormal amout of balls in play, which all factor in WARP. I didn't just slough of those nubers that I found on Burns and Garland. I went into this with only one preconcieved notion. -- Mark Buehrle was better than Lamar Hoyt -- I would have been fine if I had proved myself wrong there. I would have still posted everything for everyone else's benefit. I decided to do the WARP comparison because as I thought about it, OPS isn't the best measure to compare the team as a whole, because it only accounts for Offensive output, and not defense or SB's, or playing time. So I took guys with alike PT and positions, as WARP is position specific, and compared them. Just to add them to the OPS+ and ERA+ comparisons from the day before, just to get another perspective for myself. Nobody should see 3.4 and 3.0 and automatically assume that the 3.4 guy must be .4 better than 3.0 guy. These metrics are tools. Soft guidlines that help us better understand. Here's a couple of examples. Rowand's 04 -- .310/.361/.544 Kittle's 83 -- .254/.314/.504 Now Rowand is alot better in all categories there, but that doesn't account for him playing in a hitters park, in the most productive offensive era of all time. OPS+ and WARP3 helped us see that while rowand's numbers were substantially better than Kittle, he's expected to contribute about as much as Kittle did in 83 to the team in the upcoming season. Buehrle's 04 -- 3.89 ERA, 245.3IP Hoyts 83 -- 3.66ERA, 260.7IP obviosly Hoyt had the better ERA and more IP, but when you take into acount park factors and eras(the word not the abbr.), Buehrle had the much more impressive season, despite Hoyt's 24 wins. There are no hard and fast rules for comparing players across eras, but I can assure you that the wrong way is to just look at there stats at face value.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jan 27, 2005 -> 10:25 PM) Someone else besides me should read this. IF you read it you would have quoted some of it with a

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Jan 27, 2005 -> 09:23 PM) Farnsworth was mentioned in a potential trade w the O's centered around Sosa. If they are willing to toss him in a trade to get rid of a cancer then they might be open to trading him for something they need like Harris. They have a Left handed hitting 2B who was better than willie last year. Walker(Willie) -- .274(.262)/.352(.343)/.468(.323) Can we end the cubbie love?

dont get too excited -- http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/carusmi01.shtml

Yesterday I had a good time comparing these two team using OPS+ and ERA+. It may not be interesting to anyone but me and maybe knight(who initially brought this up, I think), but I was gonna to it for myself anyway, so. Today I thought I'd try to compare them using WARP3. WARP3, unlike ERA and OPS, is a counting stat, so I'm going to match some guys up a little differently to try an match playing time more accurately.(I know I can't predict future PT, but I can make soe pretty good educated guess as to who will be playing where, and how much) WARP3 is an all inclusive stat, that factors in defense, and such things as SB. It's corrected for park and time. R.Law vs SPod - Law '83 WARP = 5.6, Spod avg WARP = 5.15. If Spod approaches his 2003 production it's adv '05, but if he's anything like he was in the minors it's adv '83. Kittle vs Rowand - Kittle '83 WARP = 4.5, Rowand '04 WARP = 6.7. I expect a small slide from Rowand here, but I would still expect this to be "win" for Rowand. As with yesterday, if you look at these two spots(CF/LF) as a whole, it's very even. Baines vs Dye - Baines '83 WARP = 5.5, Dye avg WARP = 3.5 -- Clear win for Baines. Dye would need to approach his 1999/2000 production(8.4 and 7.5, respectively) to top Baines using this metric Luzinski vs Thomas - Luzinski '83 WARP = 4.9, Frank avg WARP = 5.1. I used frank's last three years, he missed much of last year, so I figure that averages to about 3/4 of his expected production for a full season, which seems like a reasonable projection for next year. Very even, but if GLoad/Everett is playing at all above replacement level in his absense, the DH spot becomes a win for the '05 team. V. Law vs Crede - Law '83 WARP = 2.9, Crede avg WARP = 3.1. I expect a modest improvement from Crede. adv. '05. Fletcher/DYBZINSKI vs Uribe - '83 platoon WARP = (3.0 + .8) 3.8, Uribe '04 WARP = 6.4. I expect a small slide for Juan, but he's still a clear upgrade over the '83 squad. His three year average(4.3), which I expect his to beat easily, is still higher than the '83 tandem. Cruz/Bernazard vs Iguchi - '83 platoon WARP = (2.3 + 1.5) 3.8. There's obviously no WARP data for Iggy, so I thought I would use the rather unscientific approach of using Kaz Matsui's WARP from last year (which is also not available...Grrrr) Willie Harris was 3.0 in WARP last year. Assuming Iggy is at least as sound as WH in the defensive and running game, I wouldn't hesitate to add a couple wins for his incresed offensive prowess. Put it in the win column for the '05 squad, but it could just as easily be a win for '83 if Iggy flops. (I know nobody's actually reading this, so I'm just gonna throw some wild s*** in here.) 27% of all male college students believe that life is "a meaningless existential hell" Wimpy vs Konerko - Wimpy '83 WARP = 4.4, Konerko avg WARP = 4.76. Slight edge to Kong, as long as he doesn't have a dismal '03like performance. Fisk vs AJ - Fisk '83 WARP = 8.0(WOW), AJ avg WARP = 6.1. I'm surprised how close this one is, I would have thought it would have been a slaughter, but AJ actually posted a 8.1 mark in '03(where he was rated excelent both offensively and defensively) I don't think AJ will ever approach his career year again, but get 6 WARP out of the C spot would be great for this team. ***WARP is a position specific stat, so one of Rowand and Pod who both have played almost exclusively CF, would lose a little value shifting to the more offensive position of LF. Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt '83 WARP = 7.0, Buehrle's 04 WARP was 7.8, which is incedentaly his career average. Slight edge to Buehrle Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister '83 WARP = 6.1, Garcia's 04 was 7.6. I don't know what to expect from FG with a full season in USCF. His career avg is about 6.5(using prorated IP, 200/season). It's pretty close to a draw here. Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson '83 WARP = 7.9, El Duque is never gonna approach that. He just won't get enough innings to be that good. Burns vs Garland - Burns '83 WARP = 3.9, Garland's avg WARP = 4.9. I must say I'm confused by this ranking. Burns was a clear winner in ERA+. I'm thinking that WARP may not be a great measure for pitchers. This one's just screwy an unexpected. I don't know what to make of it. I'm gonna ad PRAA(pitching runs saved above average to all of these comps) PRAA Burns=6, Garland =0 -- you didn't read this far so here's more useless crap -- 1961 was the most recent year that could be written both upside-down and rightside-up and be read the same. The next year this happens is 6009 Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman '83 WARP = 2.3, Contreras = no data -- I would think that he could put up a warp of 2.3 rather easily with his occasionally dominant stuff, so long as he played near replacement level the rest of the time. Just another way to look at this comparison. Thought I'd share.

Rownad the barbarian

QUOTE(Punch and Judy Garland @ Jan 27, 2005 -> 08:19 PM) I'm not sure why you think Paulie is better than Sexson or Glaus. Both need to show health but I think they are much better players than Konerko. They all happened to become regulars at the same time in 99 -- These are career numbers, games/season since 99, and their last full season stats. (.278/.345/.481) -- 147 games/Season -- last full season ('04)(.277/.359/.535) (.271/.349/.528) -- 130 games/Season -- last full season ('03)(.272/.379/.548) (.253/.357/.497) -- 130 games/Season -- last full season ('02)(.250/.352/.453) Sexson might be an upgrade over Kong, but not at the increased price. Glaus doesn't really compare well, but he's at a less demanding offensive position. One that he should be moved from if Melvin knows whats good from him, and at all wants to keep him on the field for the duration of his 4 year deal.