QUOTE(knightni @ Jan 26, 2005 -> 11:14 AM)
Kittle vs SPod - Kittle
R.Law vs Rowand - hard one to choose I'd say Law
Baines vs Dye - Baines
Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas
V. Law vs Crede - Crede barely
Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe
Cruz vs Iguchi - Cruz
Walker vs Konerko - Konerko
Fisk vs AJ - Fisk
Hoyt vs Buehrle - Hoyt
Bannister vs Garcia - Bannister
Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson
Burns vs Garland - Burns
Koosman vs Contreras - Koosman
Just my opinion, but the whole starting pitching of 1983 is superior to 2005.
I completely disagree with the Hoyt v Buehrle comparison, so I thought I'd take a look at it more objectively ----
I'm going to take each players '83 season, and compare it to the established/expected level of play from our team (three year averages) using OPS+ and ERA+(which are expressions of production vs. league average corrected for park factor and year) These figures are the easiest things to use when comparing across generatons. (WARP3 would be another good choice, but as I'm writing this, I'm already halfway through the comparison)
Kittle vs SPod - Kittle -- No argument there -- Kittle wins 118 to an average of 94 for SPod
R.Law vs Rowand - Rowand -- 109 to 94 -- I used rowand's career line here(but I expect him to perform better than his career line this year)
Law added 70+ SBs in 83, so it would probably be better to compare Law v. Spod and Rowand v. Kittle, at which point it's very even. Law and Spod are a draw. Kittle v. Rowand -- Kittle posted a 118 OPS+ in 83 to Rowand's 126 in '04. Assuming Rowand slips a little from last years performace, I'd expect his OPS+ to be right about 115 or so -- It's a draw on these two spots.
Baines vs Dye - Baines -- Baines is clearly a better player than Dye, but he didn't exactly have a great year in '83, OPS+ of 109. Dye has put up seasons of 109, 105, and 103 his last three healthy seasons. If Dye has a good year he could easily eclipse Baines 83 season, but he hasn't had a season like that since 2000.
Luzinski vs Thomas - Thomas -- Duh, Franks headed to the HOF. HIs three year OPS+ is about 140. Luzinski's '83 was 129(which incedently is about what I expect from frank when he gets back.) Frank gets the nod based on career performance.
V. Law vs Crede - Crede -- Law's '83 OPS+ was 83, better than Crede's '04 mark of 79, but Crede's career mark is 89 and 3-year is just above 90. I expect joe to rebound to at least '03 levels and near league average production.
Fletcher vs Uribe - Uribe -- Seems like the Sox are always searching for a SS Fletcher/Dybzinski occupied the SS spot in 83, and niether did anything offensively. Uribe has a career OPS+ of 81. Fletcher/Dybzinski slit time with marks of 86/56. Uribe was a career best 107 in '04, and though I expect a small slide, I don't see him regressing back to his career average.
Cruz vs Iguchi - Iggy -- Using the best/most conservative projection for Iggy(.281/.348/.427) I project him to have about a league average OPS+ (high 90's, good for a 2B) The Cruz/Bernazard platoon was 70/84, a clear advantage to Iguchi.
Wimpy vs Konerko - I changed this comparison to Wimpy because he had more AB's (about half at 1B) -- Wimpy had an OPS+ of 118. Konerko was 123 last season, and has a career mark of 111. Taking out his '03, Kong has been a very consistant 120 or so. I'm gonna call this one a draw, as an OPS+ of 118 from kongs would be great next year.
Fisk vs AJ - Fisk -- One's in the hall, the other is not -- this one is easy. Fisk was an amazing 134 in 83 (that would be like getting Frank's production from the catchers spot) Pierz is a good offensive catcher, but he's not HOF caliber, career mark of 100. I expect him to put up something very close (but just below, because I don't see him benefiting too much from USCF) to league average
Walker v. Jurassic -- Walker/Wimpy had a simillar role to that of what Carl's will be this season. IN 83, Walk had an OPS+ of 108. Carl was a terrible 85 last season, after being 124 the season before... I expect him to rebound to at least something very similar to the 108 mark Walker had in 83. Call it a draw, but I'm expecting more.
Hoyt vs Buehrle - Buehrle -- and it's not even close. Buehrle has a career ERA+ of 125 with his career low being 108. Hoyt's three best years 81-83 he posted ERA+s of 100, 114, and 115
Bannister vs Garcia - Draw -- Bannister is very Garcia-like. He has a couple very good years, followed by a couple average to below average years. A career 102 ERA+, but we're only comparing the '83 season, during which he was a 125. Freddy Garcia was 121 last season, and has a career mark of 114. I expect him to be right at his career mark. Amending from a draw to a win for Bannister since we're only comparing one year, and I'd be very surprised to se FG top 125. -- Bannister
Dotson vs El Duke - Dotson -- Dotson was amazin in 83 with an ERA+ of 130. El Duque can match that for small stretches (evidenced by his 136 in '04) but He's not going to chew up the innings that Dotson did in '83
Burns vs Garland - Burns -- Garland is a league average pitcher, Burns was above league average in every year but one. Burns posted an ERA+ of 117 in 83, Garland would need an ERA about 4.35-4.45 to match that mark, a little out of his range.
Koosman vs Contreras - Contreras -- Contreras has a career ERA+ of 95 in the states. In Koosman's 83 season he posted an 88 ERA+. Contreras was 85 almost exclusively from the rotation. I expect a maddening just below league average performace this season around his career average of 95. Screw it, I don't know what to expect DRAW
05 staff as a whole -- I view our staff as this -- 3 stud pitchers, a league average pitcher, and a replacement level starter.
The three Studs are Buehrle, Garcia, and a two headed monster of the good Contreras starts and the starts that hernandez can make. That third starer of Contreras/Hernandez should give you about 35 start of near all-star caliber starting pitching. Garland is Garland, an average starter at 4th. And the combination of Bizzaro-Contreras and the Diaz/Grilli/Cotts gives us the maddening 7+ ERA from the 5 spot. It's still an improvement over previos seasons, but the key will be 1) how many starts can Hernandez make and 2) how many starts do we get the Bizzaro-Contreras.
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Overall the '05 team has a better offense(even park corrected), but the rotation would need career years from a lot of people to match the '83 staff.
It should be noted that the 83 team outperformed thier Pythagorean record by 3 games, a not insignificant margin(though they were probably aided by a terrible AL west that year) Even though it looks like the the 05 team has more guys than you'd think comparing well to the 83 team, I can assure you that the level of competition they face in the "worst division in baseball" is better than what the 83 team had to face.
This was really fun to look back at the 83 team, I have almost no memories of that season. (I was 4)