Sports Guy

An example of something recent from Keith Law (who has always loved Ortiz) https://x.com/oriolesreview/status/1739058503203930604?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

Definitely agree…but I think hanging onto him is the only we he has a chance at getting what it sounds like he is hoping for. There was the report that Elias doesn’t want to trade Cowser. Now, maybe he has no interest in doing that. Its also possible he believes he doesn’t have to because the offers out there are underwhelming compared to expectations.

I think that point is here now. The rumored Reds trade is a good example of that. I actually think Cease can raise his value during the year. It’s less service time but if you can get him in June or July and he is pitching at a high level, he will fetch more than he can now imo. But that’s a risk and on I am not sure is worth taking. Cease just isn’t fetching 3 prospects in the 35-75 range. It’s just not happening.

IKF and Keirmeier…are they trying a run prevention thing up there? Maybe they feel there is more value in preventing runs in this market? Thats the only thing I can think of.

We have talked about that. I think that article is largely bs. He’s a gifted fielder. It doesn’t give me any pause at all. If it weren’t for Gunnar and eventually Holliday, I would gladly hand him SS and like I said, I’ll take him at second and be very happy about it.

Norby isn’t an IFer. He has a good bat but I think he’s an OFer/DH/spot start at second if needs be type guy. Hes a good piece to acquire. Some have had him as a top 100 guy. He is younger than Ortiz but while everyone loves Norby’s bat, Ortiz has outhit him.

Ortiz has some of the best EV numbers in the minors. I would be just as happy to have him as our starting second baseman long term as i would Westburg. In fact, I would much rather trade Westburg (compared to one of the OFers) for that reason. Ortiz may be able to win a GG at three If positions. He is a 720-770 type bat imo. You get that combined with his defense and he is a 3.5-5 WAR type guy. I mean, the Os got 3.3 fWaR out of Jorge Mateo in 2022 because of his defense and his offense isn’t close to Ortiz. But again, I get it. I get why you wouldn’t want him as the top guy in the package, especially because of his age. All I’m saying is that the level he is generally rated at is about the area I see the Sox getting their headliner from. Maybe some have him as a top 50 guy and maybe some top 80..the reality is that there is very little difference there and Ortiz is far more likely to be a ML contributor than most prospects ahead of him because of the defense he can provide.

I’m not sure how to describe Elias so far when it comes to trades. He has made some good trades as a seller but his trades as a buyer have been mediocre at best. Now, he also hasn’t exactly been in the market for top guys yet either, so I feel some of that is tbd. I know some think Elias is a prospect hugger and have definitely been frustrated at certain things in recent years but Elias is as good as it gets and deserves the benefit of the doubt. That said, any GM is going to be tight fisted with prospects when you have so many elite young players. Every team wishes they had the young talent the Os do and as Frobby pointed out, the Os losing OFers soon, so they may not want to deal these guys. OTOH, they also have guys like Stowers(he is being written off too much by fans), Beavers and a slew of recently drafted college OFers that could turn into something, so maybe trading Cowser or Kjerstad and getting that potential TOR starter is worth the risk. As for the trade you hope for…that’s what I mean. I don’t think you are getting that much. It’s possible but the Os love Povich and Kiley McDaniel had him as a top 60ish prospect going into last year. The issue with Povich is very inconsistent command and control but some of the advanced metrics love him.

Joining Frobby over here.. Personally, Cease is #1 on my wish list of pitchers that are likely available. I like him over other guys because of his upside and the idea that I love having power arms in the playoffs. That said, a prevailing thought I see amongst WS fans (not necessarily talking about here but more social media in general) is that teams are getting the 2022 version of Cease and that we (we meaning fans outside of WS fans) shouldnt question how good he is outside of that 2022 season. The bottom line is that there is both a lot to like and a lot to not like about Cease. He’s not a slam dunk to be a significant upgrade enough to trade what it will take to get him but, at least for me, he’s worth that risk. The question is, what is the return? I have zero interest trading our top 3 guys (Holliday, Basallo and Mayo) for ANYONE that is rumored to realistically be available and even if we want to talk about unrealistic players, there are very few guys I’m dealing them for. Im willing to move Cowser and Ortiz for Cease but I could see the hesitance to do so. Too many Os fans got down on Cowser for a SSS where he also had some bad luck. The thing is though, most people have Cowser as a top 30ish prospect. Are the WS getting that level of player for Cease? I have my doubts. I have had this discussion with with Chicago White Sox over on OH and you guys may not get a prospect rated higher than Ortiz (who btw some of you guys are really underrating) but I also understand the idea of wanting someone younger as the headliner. I tend to wonder if the WS would want Westburg…I also wonder if they would be happy with a quantity type package over getting one stud prospect. I know that’s not the type of deal fans want (at least not all fans) but the WS aren’t one good player away and the Os could trade 3 guys in the 10-20 range that would be in most teams top 7. I have consistently felt that if/when Cease is dealt that fans will be unhappy with the return. Cease, while the upside is there, has too many red flags and too many good but not great years for teams to be dealing top 25 prospects and other stuff for him. The only way I see the Sox getting that top guy is if Boston gets desperate and unloads Meyer for him. I don’t think they will do that but they may be dumb enough to do it because of the pressure of being in Boston, the payroll, fan base, etc… Other than that, I’m just not seeing it or else I think the deal would have already gotten done. Plus, there are several other options out there to trade for, so that doesn’t help either. Hopefully we get a deal done. I feel we match up well although if the Sox want pitching to lead the package, that’s where we likely bow out.