Chisoxfn

My last one we got rid of was 11 and 14 years old. Of my current ones - one is 11 and the other 5. I am due for a new one. I try to do 10 and essentially buy a new one around 5 year mark - that way I always got one on newer side. But my current older one - Toyota Highlander 2010 - has been awesome and is still in fantastic condition (inside and out). All of them were bought new (other than the first car I owned - so was always original owner. But I don’t put a ton of miles on the car. I think my current old 10-11 year old one only has like 125000 miles. Most miles I ever put on a car was my old Pilot - 175k and 11yrs old - would probably still own that car if it hadn’t gotten rear ended. That said - I have had a serious itch to buy a new car for the last 6 months. Either the Ascent, Highlander Hybrid or Telluride. But with Covid I don’t commute for work or anything so feels so unnecessary at the moment.

He is the exact type of move I like at $3M a year. If he is healthy - I genuinely believe he can be a really effective reliever or solid 5th starter. I recognize his falters out of the pen last year and some of the struggles in a COVID world - but his velocity was solid and the slider is still plus. I think chances that he outperforms $3M are actually pretty decent.

Yeah - I hadn't realized both 1st round picks were in future drafts (so i assume it is more of the equivalent of a 2nd and a 3rd rounder today vs. 2 1st rounders). When you consider Rams are expected to be good - it normalizes things quite a bit. I still love the move from the Lions perspective because I think these are the type of moves that you do to build up and build up assets.

I’m getting other better players around him who I think I’m building around. If Lavine keeps going and getting better awesome - worse case I move him next year. Really just want to see Bulls find one real good big and one real good point guard to go with Lavine and Williams plus a first rounder next year.

What a move by Cardinals. Stellar move and with 50 million coming over to boot - contract doesn’t look near as bad either. This is the way Sox could get a big money guy one day.

I absolutely love this move. Love love love this move!

Trade. Him and White plus Porter and Thaddeus - all or any should be gone to get better players and or picks. I can’t stand white this year - can’t stand him.

Me too - crazy how good Detroit did. Obviously part of that was taking on Goffs contract but love that move from Lions perspective. From Rams - they needed to make a play for a qb cause Goff is ok but over highly paid.

Insane - what a move by Lions.

This - echo your sentiments. I get that people want more - but that doesn’t mean you can’t be excited with where they are. They are a better team than last year and despite the doom and gloom - if some young players take further steps forward - they might actually be a lot better than last year and they were pretty damn good than.

I’m assuming they don’t have a ton of treasury stock - usually companies in spot they are in aren’t using their capital to buy back stock - although maybe they did. Haven’t looked but maybe will check their financials over the weekend.

Echo this - and I haven’t ripped the guy who initially did this as much - he is clearly bright and knew exactly what he was doing. I also highly doubt he realized it would ever go this viral. I give him legit credit for doing his research and I don’t disagree with his play when this was a 5 buck stock. And while I knock GameStop - if they are smart in a digital gaming world they could still find a place and way to do solid for a while. It isn’t like the consoles are dead (yet) and there will always be people like me who prefer the console experience. That said - once this play ends - we all know exactly where this stock is going - down down down. And honestly I wonder how game stop management feels about this etc - they are just a pawn in this whole thing at this point. Going along for a while ride. Maybe they can capitalize but as I said earlier in this thread it’s not like they can do a lot to leverage this opportunity to get capital at this insane valuation. By the time they were ready to execute the bubble will likely have popped.

I can buy into the initial smaller time item - but at this point - it is what it is. And you can say small investors aren't driving this - the thing is - everyone and their brother/sister are buying this thing - so the # of small investors purchasing individual GameStop stock is crazy at the moment. My neighbors, random coworkers - it is out of control how many people are buying it (most presumably in small scale - but all of those masses add up). Maybe it means none of the small scale people will get hurt - cause everyone is just dabbling $1500 that will eventually drop to $300 and whatever. I don't know - but I'm a fundamental investor who doesn't dabble in these type of items. Maybe I got hurt not playing this - maybe the opposite - but in the long-run I'll take my bet on long term sustained capital & income generation. Tried & True formula for sustained success.

My initial guess is nothing - its management, if it has options, etc - could probably find ways to cash out and all of that - but even than - they have to be careful because the most senior people usually just have scheduled type plays. And you can't put a bunch more stock out on the market without going through proper SEC registration filings etc - and those take time. And no way you want to do a buy-back at this point haha. Maybe they have some treasury stock (i.e., stuff they had bought back when they didn't like the valuation out there) that they could get out on the street to generate capital - but my presumption is they don't have many ways to really capitalize on this. If anything - you wonder if there are any wripple effects on them as a company after this is done (either good or bad).

I don't think you get my point - the diversified shops are going to be fine - they will. It is the smaller people/lots who will get the most burned. They will.

I just think you are being naive to think that normal retail investors aren't pouring money into this stock late in the game where prices on the stock are well aboved the $50 you throw out. Yeah - everyone who was in early is going to make out like a bandit - zero doubt about it - but I'm telling you - the collateral damage are going to be a heck of a lot of retail investors getting hurt. I'm not doubting the short squeeze will work - I'm more calling out everyone who says this is some social justice thing - when they are ignoring the massive collateral damage and pain that is going to be felt by real people / average retail investor (not the big boys & girls - the average people).

They are pumping and pumping - the dump hasn't happened and when it starts to - people are doubly hyping the pump and using this fake socially just cause to toy with people's emotions - but that will make the dump all that more historic and quite frankly sad. Because there are going to be a lot of people burned in the dust - and those who feel the hurt the most are going to be regular people who got torched.

No - at this point - the whole keep buying game stop is a ponzi scheme - everyone in that who is late to the party is getting duped and is going to get burned. Period. You are buying nothing but a gigantically inflated asset. The only way to get out of that asset is to sell and at some point - people are going to sell. I can't imagine all of these people are going to keep owning gamestop for years to keep this up. Once the shorters lose - fine - they lost - but you still have all of this retail money in the stock - at some point the bubble is going to burst and valuations are going to be what they are and when that happens.....all those retail investors are going to get burned. The big shops - with diversified portfolios - they'll have a big loss here - but they'll survive with the diversification of their portfolios - but the little guy/gal - who went heavy into this play and overplayed their hand - they won't get it back and it will set many people back years. Note: Lets not pretend there aren't some people out there who had worked hard to save up $50K or $100K and decided to put a big chunk in this. Yeah - there will be some who do great and got out when the getting was good...but all they really did was take the money of the other mom and pop investors who played the hand and didn't get out in time. Hope everyone feels good - you think you are getting the hedge fund - and you might - but the collateral damage will be all the other mom and pop investors that got robbed when the bubble bursts (and yeah - those people who lose - well that is on them too - cause they are responsible for their actions).

I'm with you on the cap stuff - its kind of why I think it will be pretty hard to have a really good team around Watson his first year here. And to be honest - even if I move Mack and Robinson - with Watson coming on - that is still a pretty decent team and the defense is still middle of the road. If Eddie Jackson were to bounce back (not betting on it) and Johnson were able to take a step forward (and before he got hurt - the advanced metrics on Johnson said he was an OUTSTANDING man corner - who struggled in zone - zone is way easier - so he should be able to improve with a regular offseason there and make a next step). A defense with Fuller and Johnson (if both play to their capabilities) will be pretty decent, especially with a Hicks/Goldman duo on the line - enabling them to not get destroyed in the rushing attack. Honestly - I think if you did the above - Bears are still potentially a playoff team - but highly unlikely they are a super bowl team.

By the way - I still think the most likely scenario is the Bears drafting a young pick and grabbing a veteran FA QB. And while I think a lot of people assume Lions won't move Stafford to the Bears - I have a feeling the Lions are going to do Stafford a solid and move him wherever he wants to go. Mac Jones has apparently been crushing it at the senior bowl (although I think he rolled his ankle and won't play). He had massive talent around him - but made a lot of NFL type throws and seems to be a very good decision maker and accurate with the ball. Reality is in the new NFL - it is less about the elite arm strength and more about the mental game, accuracy and your ability to anticipate reads. And those last pieces can be so hard to evaluate in the college game when so many of the top qb's play on teams where they don't really have to throw the ball into a lot of tight windows and anticipate because they can wait until there guy is wide open. If I'm Pace/Nagy and want to save my job - as long as I find a young QB who shows promise - that alone probably buys you time (regardless of record - if the young QB shows hope/promise - that is all I think McCaskey will care about). For those reasons - the last thing I see Pace/Nagy doing is not drafting a young QB (or acquiring someone like Tua/D'Arnold); They might go after a Winston or something - but not alone - because if they get Winston and he stinks - they are dead. To me it is either a Watson or Stafford - where you are going all in on them. In Stafford's case - you are betting change of scenery and defense bounce back give your team hope (probably unlikely you get the ceiling you expect - but who knows). Or you are going all in on getting a young QB of some sort (whether a Tua/D'Arnold or a QB not named Wilson/Fields/Lawrence - but in the Trask/Jones/Lance bucket. Note: I don't think Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater types are going to move the needle at all. Also note - Matt Stafford is only 32 - kind of crazy when you think about it.

We are super aligned. I'm shocked at all the people who think what is happening is okay - everyone should recognize it is the regular person who is going to get crushed at the end of the day. What Gamestop - a brick and mortar gaming company (in a world of digital) - is going to maintain a $10B + market cap for the next how many years? Come on now - a ton of people are going to lose a lot of money in this. This is no different than a ponzi scheme where the early entrants will get rich and everyone else will be left holding the bag. I get the overall sentiment - and I'd agree there needs to be more evaluating on the shorters on the market and there is never any doubt to me that the big shops have an advantage (more data / more access / more scale which can drive momentum desired ways) - but I am just so anti what is happening right now - because literally - it is a bubble - and when it bursts - everyone still owning shares (which are going to be regular people) are going to end up losing big chunks of money.

So I'll bite...even though I shouldn't. Have to give a presentation to like 100 people in a few hours - and just as much of a presentation as it is an open grilling session (good grilling - hopefully - but one where you got to be agile and nimble and know your "sh*t:", but this is a nice small distraction, hopefully to help clear my head. I'll caveat that I agree with whichever posted said trading the farm for Watson is going to make building a good team around him tough - at least in the near term - which is part of why my trading only works if the Bears can accumulate some extra assets this year so that really you are making a huge investment in Watson today - recognizing the step to greatness isn't going to happen overnight (because from a cap/asset perspective - they will have issues) - but having that true franchise QB is where you have to start. If Bears unequivocally believe Watson is that guy - than I think almost any price is worth it - because it isn't just about the next 1-2 years - it is about the 5-8 year window you have with an elite QB. I will also note - I don't see the Bears getting Watson by having the absolute strongest package - so at some point - Watson is going to have to tip the scales a bit in the Bears favor for this to work. The Bears will clearly not be the best team looking to acquire Watson - so for this to work - Bears are going to have to convince Watson (from ownership to GM to coach) that he is their guy and that they are going to build this entire franchise around him and make him a legend in Chicago and around the NFL. Endorsement deals - Love of the City - etc. But realistically - they are going to have to sell them on their commitment to do that over time - cause there is almost no scenario where I see Watson arriving and the Bears just being immediate superbowl contenders - unless instead of what I do below - the Bears sell like the next 4 years worth of draft picks - which I do not condone. Step 1: Move Mack - Get maximum value and my hope is you are talking at least 2 2nd round picks (ideally you get a 1st and a 2nd - even if one of those is a future pick - I don't care). And for those that say you can't get that - I don't believe it. All advance metrics still say Mack is a well above average pass-rusher and while his production dipped with the Bears - he's still widely viewed as an elite player and pass rushers (next to QB's) still have high value. This is a move that is necessary - as Bears need to find other assets - plus I think they need to move Mack for increased flexibility in terms of future cap usage (think 2022 & beyond). Note: I do this in almost any scenario if I were the Bears front office - because I think they need to find a way to develop their offense and I think Mack gets in the way. Although I would caveat this is something they could always do in another year (presuming Mack doesn't suffer a serious injury) and potentially under a new front office (depending on how 2021 goes). Step 2: Franchise and trade Allen Robinson - Get whatever you can for him - maybe it is a 2nd round pick - maybe it is a future 2nd round pick or 3rd round pick - but you can not fit Robinson's contract on the Bears. As much as I like Robinson - with the holes this club has - you can't afford paying Allen Robinson $20M per year; Note: I do not know whether the Bears can do what I outline above and still be in a cap position to fit Watson's contract under the books - but I'll leave that to another post who can verify or not. Step 3: Trade your 1st round pick, your 2nd round pick, the picks you acquired for Mack (1st round & future 2nd round) and next years 1st round and 2nd round pick - for Deshaun Watson. That would be 3 1st round picks (2 in this years draft; 1 next year) & 3 2nd round picks (1 this year & 2 next year (1 being the Bears & 1 being a pick you got from Robinson or the other Mack pick). I personally don't think that deal alone is going to be as good as what a team like Miami could offer - and maybe it isn't enough or I'm unrealistic in what I can get for Mack/Robinson (its possible). If that is the case - an alternative would be packaging Roquan Smith in the deal - although my preference would be to keep him as a young defender. In this scenario - Bears still potentially have a 2nd round pick and than the rest of their draft after 1st round and only essentially mortgaged next years 1st / 2nd rounders as well. None of the above is probably realistic - but hey - its a starting point. The thing I don't know is how much cap space / would they have cap space to do this?

I still blame you for ruining my day 12 years ago. hahahaha.

One thing about Watson - if you are Houston - despite the Jets and Dolphins having better chips - do you want to trade Deshaun within the conference or do you feel better sending him to the NFC. Would be great if Houston's ownership group had a view of keeping Deshaun out of their conference as that a number of the best suitors off the table (Colts, Jets, Dolphins). I saw somewhere, might have been ESPN - but basically someone suggested 3 way deal with Bears getting Tua for the 20th pick plus some future picks. While I don't love Tua - I wouldn't hate it either. If you are right - you quickly have shifted the franchise and if you are wrong - you take another swing in a year. In this case - you really haven't mortgaged the future (which is what it will take to get Deshaun and while I've always felt Deshaun is a bit on the over-rated side...I'd still be open to just doing it to get a young QB in his prime...even though you know they'll be in asset/cap trouble for at least 2 years).

The good news is - Bears could go to that well in a year anyway and if you landed a new QB this year and shifted to a new coach in a year, I guess the bright side is if you think the issue was the operator (Nagy) vs. the Reid Scheme - than going back to Eric B kind of embeds a bit more consistency for a QB not having to learn an entirely new scheme when the coaches change.