Chisoxfn

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 01:16 PM) Probably until he dies. But he wouldn't run the team into the red every year. Assuming they haven't paid out any of the partners, they should have quite the war chest sitting somewhere. But the problem with overspending is it leads to more overspending, and then you get into big trouble. I agree. You have to pick and choose your battles and be prepared to deal with the consequences. Having our expensive guys coming off the books (and most of them being largely unproductive) is a nice win in the near future. Additionally, no one we added this off-season to date really impacts payroll much (I'd like to do something with Frazier to be honest...although I'd wait half a season to do it...figure out for sure that he's the right fit). Than the asset of having Q / Sale, etc. It provides you the luxury to overspend a bit on FA, elsewhere. I'll miss Montas the most because I think its relatively slam dunk (in terms of prospects...which means still obvious risk) he at a minimum, becomes a high impact, cost controlled reliever.

QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 01:08 PM) Actually, he's just chairman. I don't believe that he's the majority owner. I don't know that their is any true majority owner in the sense that you have one owner who truly has control (and can push any decision he wants). I think he is the majority stakeholder though.

QUOTE (beautox @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 01:06 PM) I'm sad to see Trayce go. Having said that this is a good move. Sox need to sign a 3WAR OFer, If they do that they're sitting at about 36WAR as projected from steamer. That puts us in the thick of it for the wild card and the central, with a fair amount of upside in projections regarding Sale, Quintana and Eaton, with some additional upside in Lawrie, Johnson, Danks & Saladino. What were our projections entering 2014 & 2015 (out of pure curiosity) vs. reality.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) Adam Eaton ‏@AdamSpankyEaton 3h3 hours ago Hmm @FlavaFraz21 ... I've heard great things... #WelcomeToTheSouthSide Todd FrazierVerified account ‏@FlavaFraz21 @AdamSpankyEaton hahaha can't wait big dog. It's time Avila is also supposed to be a good clubhouse guy, and Lawrie has an edge that can go either way. I think there is going to be a different attitude on this team if they come out strong. Agree on some edge. That said, Robertson and LaRoche were supposed to be rock solid clubhouse guys as well. I want wins baby, wins.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 12:18 PM) I dunno...baseball is a strange game. I enjoy the different methods of projecting/evaluating a team, whether it be WAR or other advanced statistical metrics. But in the end, there is a lot of psychology that comes into place over a 162 game season that simply cannot be quantified or measured. The 2015 team is not as bad as the record would suggest. If you use the record as your baseline from which to project, yeah, there is virtually nothing they can do to become "contenders" in 2016 or 2017. It's just too big of a leap to turnover over the course of 1 or 2 offseasons. And yet, these kind of leaps in actual performance are made fairly frequently in reality. I'm not saying I think they are "there" yet, but if they were to acquire another OF bat such as Cespedes or Upton, I really do think they might have something there. A lot of things could come together with Eaton/Abreu/Frazier/Cespedes or Upton/Cabrera/LaRoche in a bounce back year with a rotation of Sale/Quintana/Rodon/Danks/Johnson and the pen we have. Get that team on a bit of a roll with a bit of confidence and I guarantee you they could outperform any projections fairly easily. I actually agree with a lot of what you have been posting recently. I think we have similar thoughts on our coaching staff, the general state of the organization, thoughts on how to improve, etc. That being said, what the FO has done thus far this offseason is not only admirable, but pretty unbelievable, to be honest. I think what we are seeing is a combination of Kenny's acquisition strategy and Hahn's negotiating skills. I will admit this deal will be a bit less exciting without another fairly significant acquisition, given the window we are looking at, but I will wait and see what else these two can pull of. Good post.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:59 AM) The "defense" point isn't a "wouldn't want him", argument, it's just "is he going to be as good as the language people are using would suggest". Some of that is also me wondering whether I understand the defensive stats enough, because Bryant being right next to Frazier seems to make no sense to me if Bryant is a guy who should be moved away from 3b and Frazier is "Well above average". The "wouldn't want him" part comes from me continuing to think this team is no where near as good as they want to believe they are. Bryan ranked very positively defensively. So again, Frazier being in his group is not a bad thing at all. No one is talking about moving Bryant to the outfield anymore and either way that was more a move of maximizing talents with Baez in the equation, etc. Alex Rodriguez was an excellent defensive shortstop, should we point to the fact that he was moved (wrongly in this case) to 3B because of Jeter an indication he was a crappy shortstop? No. http://statliners.com/2015/08/14/kris-brya...e-chicago-cubs/ http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0817-story.html

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:50 AM) No, he was 7th if you switch to the total UZR which is the counting stat. IF you do UZR/150 he was 48th with Bryant as 50th. But of course, in that case you've made the opposite error - including guys like Saladino who played there a month or less. Basically, if you count his defense as "Well above average" you wind up describing Bryant with the same word based on those numbers and that confuses me. UZR/150, has Frazier 6th (over 2 year span) or 7th out of qualified 3rd baseman. UZR/150 also adjusts for scale anyway so it isn't a counting stat. Not to mention on defensive statistics, you want a longer scale sample size. Either way, anyway you slice his past few years defense and you get positive performance. Unless of course you are Balta the grouch. No one on this planet thinks Frazier is a below average defensive player (except you of course).

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:42 AM) Well yeah, of course if you filter to "last 4 years", but that's because you've now limited it to "guys who have been consistent over 4 years". You will find an issue with anything. Sox could have acquired Mike Trout for this package and you'd have complained. They are moving up in the WAR world, your go to stat for the past few years, getting a guy who has consistently been good and you still gripe. By the way, switch that UZ stat to the past 2 years and he ranks 6th. Above Mr. Longoria too (by the way).

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:39 AM) http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=24,d Last 4 years Frazier's UZR/150 is 4th among all 3B, behind Arenado, Donaldson, and Machado. By DRS he's 6th. Whether you want to call that well above average is semantics, but regardless it's a pretty big upgrade from what we had (except for Saladino's superhuman DRS numbers at 3B this year). Yeah...somehow 4th amongst all 3B would be pretty damn good to me and I don't know what to call that other than above average.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) I'm not sure if I'm just reading this wrong, but Frazier doesn't come through as "well above average" defensively in UZR. Normalized to playing 150 games, UZR/150, he put up a 7.5. Kris Bryant, who people keep wanting to move off of 3b, put up a 5.4. The "Well above average" people, like Beltre, Longoria, etc., all put up >10. He was like 5th in defensive runs saved combined over the past few years. In what world is that not above average. And anyone wanting to move Bryant off of 3B is delusional.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:26 AM) He's an all star. We have someone to root for in home run derby. Meanwhile, the team and org. got worse. The Sox had stabilized 3B. The weaknesses were OF defense and a mediocre bullpen. So what did they do? Traded a OF who plays impeccable D and hit nearly .900 OPS. Brilliant! They traded a pitcher who could have been an actual stopper, of which there is exactly one. Oh, and they crowded out yet another young IF. 2B wasn't an issue. We had great D there from a YOUNG player (which, I know, is a negative on the Sox). The irony of course is that at least 2 of those guys, if not all 3, will make the 92 win Dodgers 25 man. But they weren't good enough for the 25 man of Robbie and Cooper's 76 win Sox. 3B was a pretty big issue as well. I am Trayce's biggest fan and absolutely think he has a place on a major league team. That said, I'd bet against his initial hot start being the norm and bet more on him being a slightly average to below average bat and an above average defender. All good things but to get a 3B who is well above average at both is huge. Who knows, maybe Trayce is really a poor man Heyward in the analytic world though and his defense will be so good that pedestrian offensive numbers are just fine.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:24 AM) well, sit back and strap it down. Sounds like Rick decided to go for it. Who takes over for Ventura if this team is floundering at the end of May? F this nonsense. I don't want to deal with another flounder. Ventura is going to kick ass and take names and get an extension after he wins the series!!

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:21 AM) Here's a quickly found thread on Ivan Nova. I would expect Sox to be interested in all kinds of people. Doesn't mean they don't like Johnson. Maybe they thought Johnson was going to have to be used to upgrade the offense? Either way, I have concerns around pitching so I'd hope they'd be checking to see if they could find some value. We also have no idea whether the report is actually true. It was the only pitcher we have heard associated with the Sox (so usually if you were looking to add pitching, we'd have heard some other names and targets vs. just one pitcher in particular).

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:19 AM) Yea I agree. Fangraphs has the Sox at 14.6 project WAR from SP. That figure could end up quite a bit higher given the upside of Johnson and Rodon. Sox need Rodon and Johnson to come out with their hair on fire. Honestly..could be worse. Injury to one of our good pitchers or Rodon / Johnson blow up. Danks could fall apart. I realize Shark sucked last year, but with Shark I'd be exstatic. Their is a lot more uncertainty in our rotation than a year ago. Could work in our favor though and I tend to trust the Sox long term track record with pitching.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:17 AM) One of the big worries I'd have on that ground is that the White Sox themselves voiced a lack of confidence in EJ by shopping for a RH starter to replace him. Who did we shop for this off-season?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:17 AM) That is beyond encouraging. . Making that big of a public statement is huge. Lets us know that they fully intend to do something else. Also nice that our two potential elite chips and guys capable of being game changers are still in our system (Anderson & Fullmer). Montas was an upper class prospect, imo (I think people here are underselling him) but Anderson and Fullmer are at another level. Doesn't mean they pan out, but those are the chips I'm worried about. You need to have solid depth around for various reasons but I like using your non-top talent for major league talent.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:12 AM) http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team Projected WAR now at 33.6, Cleveland is at 38.0, so 2nd in the ALC right now according to Fangraphs, but like you said the Royals are probably undervalued here, even though I think they've been considerably weakened. So an outfield bat would put us closer to the Tribe, but the big area we get crushed is the rotation. Losing Shark puts more pressure on Rodon in what will be his first full year as well as additional pressure on Erik Johnson to come around. We do have Fulmer in the wings, but I still think it is unrealistic to project a ton around him. We have to hope we see the EJ of most of his career and that he can take a step forward and build off of his 2015 campaign. He (and say Rodon), along with health, might be the keys to the Sox season. Interesting how high a team like the Red Sox ranks, given where they performed and the fact that they made two big moves. Shows you how far below plan the 2015 team played as well (must be getting a lot of positive regression).

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:11 AM) My reaction was what is next? I am no prospect lover, but they have to keep going if they are trying to win. They cannot stop here. If they do and fall short, whether you love Trayce, Micah, and Montas, hate them or are indifferent, it makes no sense to trade them for a guy who will be around 2 years, if you are going to be a .500 or so team. You need to do whatever you can to get into the playoffs. Now it is about spending some money. Spend it JR. Get the guy that will take you over the top, and melt the doom and gloomers like the Wicked Witch of the West. Ding ding ding. Sums it up perfectly.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 11:10 AM) Wait, really? Maybe I can't read but I thought someone said it was Sox and Indians in the top 2 spots. I never fact checked it so maybe I'm crazy. I would say that this move would only cement that fact.

I need another option. Depends...if we add another impact bat, yes. That is my answer.

Balta - I think someone mentioned right now, the Sox are 1st in the division in projected WAR (or maybe it was 2015 WAR). That is a stat you had always thrown about (and I believe they were 1st in the division in projected WAR prior to acquiring Frazier so I presume this will increase their margin). We all know teams are still rebuilding but you have touted on that stat a lot in the past about where the Sox fell short, but isn't that a pretty good indicator of where they are headed (vs. even last year where those projections didn't add up). They have significantly upgraded 3 positions thus far. If they are done, I'd argue it isn't enough (as the Royals seem to be undervalued through WAR and I presume they still have moves to make to fill out their roster). But this division is totally up for the taking. If the Royals resign Gordon that would restore them (as everything stands) as the favorites in my eyes, but they have some players who might be due for some regression. Twins & Tribe? Sure they could take steps forward but this division, with the Royals losing Cueto, Gordon (possibly), and Zobrist (along with all the assets that went with acquiring Cueto & Zobrist), they are much different than the team that won the series a year ago.

QUOTE (staxx @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 10:58 AM) The negativity about this trade is unbelievable. What Trayce did in the last month is the type of player he is going to be. Probably a 75% chance Montas is a reliever, and I'm not even sold he'll be successful at one. Isn't it really like 5 people that are negative vs. 25+ that are positive? I think their is a segment, including myself, that views this deal as positive as long as it isn't the final piece. If we are going to contend, we need to build a team that truly can contend. That team exists if we find a significant upgrade in the OF (offensively and defensively). Anything more, at that point, is gravy. I think the package with the Reds was fair and I love the fact that Frazier can play above average D. Only thing I don't like about Frazier's game is the lack of OBP.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 10:48 AM) If you replace Avi Garcia with Justin Upton, I don't think any team in the division has a better line-up, and our starting pitching is top tier as well. Eaton Melky Abreu Upton Frazier LaRoche Lawrie Avila/Navarro Saladino That's a strong line-up with some decent speed and power. Not to mention you have one of the best defensive left sides of the infield in baseball The team has clearly upgraded 2B, 3B, and catcher. If we upgrade the outfield, in theory, we also will have significantly upgraded the bench and our DH spot. So we'd be a deeper team that upgraded numerous positions.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 10:24 AM) Please stop raining on our parade. Thanks. I think point 1 is open for debate. If point 1 is true, than my opinion of this deal changes significantly. I can't argue points #2 and #3. #2 is entirely plausible and #3 is factual (although I don't know that I go as far as saying dynamic..but they all have at least one outstanding tool).

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 10:24 AM) Please stop raining on our parade. Thanks. I think point 1 is open for debate. If point 1 is true, than my opinion of this deal changes significantly. I can't argue points #2 and #3. #2 is entirely plausible and #3 is factual.