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Everything posted by joeynach
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These statistics explain a lot...reality or not?
joeynach replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE(caulfield12 @ May 7, 2007 -> 05:40 AM) Jones in CF? No thanks. Why would you want someone with a guaranteed, long-term contract that was not part of our future any more than Erstad. And Jones has never been a "plus" defender at any position besides LF. He has a below average arm for RF and doesn't have the instincts for CF. I dont want Jones either he is a lousy fielder with a lousy arm. The only plus is he's familiar with AL Central pitching, but I remember him for the longest time in a twins uniform not being able to hit above .260. No thank you. BTW i think hes only signed for 1 more year with the cubs through 08 for something like 3-4 Mil. -
QUOTE(SoxAce @ May 6, 2007 -> 11:39 PM) The first thing I think of is a particular fight. Maybe one of Gullien's kids got into it with someone(s) and BA didn't eigher back him up, or didn't do anything to prevent it/break it up/whatever. At any case we don't know what's behind closed doors but there has to be a reason that we do not know about. That's evident. You'll know this to be the case when BA gets traded for one Player to be named later and a pepperoni pizza.
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Couch rips the White Sox for "staying put"
joeynach replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ May 4, 2007 -> 11:40 AM) This team actually has very good pitching, the problem is Kenny's offensive philosophy going into this year: 1. Expected to catch lightning in a bottle with Pods, who is both bad and fragile. 2. Expected to catch lightning in a bottle with Erstad, who is both bad and fragile (that's worked out ok though). 3. Was, like many, under the false premise that last year was a breakout year at the plate for Crede, when it was actually just a career year. 4. Took the caculated risk that Thome would stay healthy again, which could work out still if he does after this DL stint is over, but who knows. 5. Relied on the contract year status to mean Dye would have a year again like 2006, when in reality that was another case of a career year, in this case from an aging player. There are your problems. Our pitching is fine, but our offense is wrong in almost every way possible. Yep this team, meaning KW needs to recognize when a player or players have downright ridiculously awesome years that aren't in flux with their career numbers, its an aberration not an upward trend. We see it over and over again. Very rare does a guy bust out with a great year thats not on par at all with his year to year to year numbers and then maintain that forever. Doesn't happen. Dye and Crede are examples last year; Hermanson, Cotts, Politte, Garland (ERA) in 2005. And its not just our team it happens all the time, look at Morgan Ensberg he had that monster year in 2005 then what. Adrian Beltre, Brady Anderson, even Justin Morneau (we will see), Johnny Peralta, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, etc. Its called regression towards the mean in logical terms. A good GM and organization would plan that following a guys one and only monster year that regression towards the mean is more likely than the player just putting up those career years #'s for the rest of his playing time. -
These statistics explain a lot...reality or not?
joeynach replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE(santo=dorf @ May 5, 2007 -> 05:30 PM) So how come it's ok to spread the blame away from Erstad onto our other slumping players simply because Erstad had his own horrible slump? In refering to the pic of the sox girl, Im now spent.....MERCY!!! -
Me and friends used to see some of the Gullien kids out with Freddy at the bars and playing pool last year. Plus I have seen Bmac and Anderson hanging out in Lincoln Park last summer as well. I know young guys go out and do what young guys do, Im one of them. As for BA to look out for the gullien boys I dont buy it. They are probably more popular and more social in this town than BA or anyone sox player so why would BA, a young party guy, be assigned to babysit them. You would think if they went together it would cuz they wanna party together not one watching out for the other, and isn't Ozzie's oldest like the same age as BA anyway?
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The good news is this terrible Kansas City Royal like play where you just hand games away will force KW hand. Eventually this garbage play will force KW to get rid of soem of our aging less enthused players. Im sorry but a Dye, Contreras, Uribe, etc need to go and we could use some younger more enthused players, ala the twins. This garabge we have been putting on the field will force KW to do something and something drasctic if it keeps up for 2 more weeks, guranteed. And that cant be all that bad cuz anything is better than this.
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2 More weeks of this garbage and the seaons is 100% lost. No one in this division is going to leap frog 3 teams and make up 10 to 12 games deficit. This division is way too tough for the garbage we are throwing out there daily. Maybe in a weaker division you can float around 5 games under or so and still make a run but not with three very good team ahead of us.
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Can someone just tell me the last time we had back to back hits (or walks). No seriously can someone really tell me I cant remember.
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QUOTE(Kalapse @ May 4, 2007 -> 02:03 PM) You have no grasp on the value of consistent starting pitching in this current state of major league baseball. So u are in favor of giving MB before any other pitcher potentially available a 5 Year 75 Mil deal? Well then we are lucky you are not the GM. Whats wrong with MB on a 3 year deal at 11-12 per year with an option.
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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ May 3, 2007 -> 11:27 PM) Santana is going to get $22-25 mill a year, and I wouldn't rule out more. Zambrano is going to get $16-18. And I don't know why you'd rather have Oswalt considering his peripherals continue to get worse every single year, though that could be because he's turned into more a control and pitching to contact guy than a strikeout guy. And I'm sick and tired of this ace bulls***, you don't need a f'ing ace to win a World Series, you can have 4 #2's or for #1's who aren't aces, like the Sox had in 2005 or the Angels had in 2002. If he's good, and you have faith in his health, you try your damnedest to resign him. Secondly, though it will be topped in the next 2 years, Barry Zito signed the biggest contract for a pitcher in the history of baseball. He tops out at 90. Third, Buehrle's been throwing 87-90 all year. I don't get where you are saying he's having trouble hitting 88. His velocity has looked better, and his pitches still have movement. And he's always given up a ton of hits, but that has never stopped him from being a great #2-3 pitcher his entire career. His problems have been control and homers; if he can walk around 50 a year, and allow 25 homers a year, he's going to be good even when his H/9 is right around 9. However, if he's allowing more in either of those aforementioned categories, he's going to get hit around. It's that simple. Fourth, I've never made him the end all, be all. I'm just suggesting he's a good candiate to build the rotation around. As much as I love Vazquez, he's too damn streaky, and Garland will never be much more than a mediocre pitcher. Gio is a guy that has that potential, but he's in AA. If Buehrle gets let go, the rotation is probably Contreras, Garland, Vazquez, Danks, and Floyd/Haeger/Phillips/Russell/Gio next year, and that's just s***ty; if that's the rotation, the Sox may as well go into a 3 year rebuilding plan. Finally, yeah, I'll take Felix over Buehrle, but I'll leave it up to you to find me a way to get him without giving up the White Sox top 10 prospects. That's a completely assinine statement, you can't have Felix and you'll likely never get him. Beyond that, the kid may be destined for a career on the DL simply because his slider takes too much of a toll on his elbow. Basically, if you resign Buehrle this offseason, I think you have a shot in hell at competing in the next few years. If you don't, s*** hits the fan and the Sox are mediocre or bad for the rest of the decade. First of all those names I mentioned aren't my suggestions for who we should get next year, thats unrealistic, they are their for comparison purposes only. As if Buehrle is your big $$ pitcher and our anchor I would rather have any of the other guys listed above. In our ballpark our big pitcher needs to be a non-contact hitter, our ballpark is tiny and our corner outfielders are slow or not good. You dont think Jake Peavy would be great in a sox uniform. My point is all about the value of MB, you make him sound like if he is resigned we are just blindly going to be OK for the next 3 years. Hell no, espeically if its gonna cost 15 Mil per year for that. Im telling you I like Mark, I really do, but he is worth the same contract Vazquez got, Contreras got, Garland got, and not much more. Im not saying we should swap him for somebody else im just saying in terms of his value and contract what would be beneficial to our team vs detrimental to our team. I have never been in love with Mark's style of being that finese pitcher who needs to be perfect and needs to be getting a good strike zone from the ump. Thats the problem and I think KW noticed it too. He went out and made a whole new bullpen on the premise that we need to make more pitches that are just flat out unhittable, more pitches that result in less contact, more pitches that dont rely on getting favorable nips on the corners of the strike zone. And im sorry but MB is the opposite of that. He even said it himself he needs to be getting the calls in and around the corners to be effective or hes going to get hammered. So you wanna give this guy big $$ so that if 10 factors dont go right any given day he could get shelled. No thank you. Thats why I preach on getting more guys like KW did for our bullpen. More guys who you cant hit (or more difficult to hit) regardless of the size of the strike zone, favorable calls, questec, blah blah. Guys whose stuff is outstanding thats where we should spend our 4 Years 60 Mil at for a pitcher. Im not saying who it should be I dont have the answer, but im saying MB doesn't fit that profile for that type of deal. And BTW that Zito contract was the worst contract in the history of baseball.
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Has anyone else realized Santana is like night day road to home. Hes like a 21-6 lifetime pitcher at home and 7-19 on the road. Thats pretty ridiculous.
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Im not sure if u want him, well i would for the same deal we gave Vazquez. Ill take Mark for 3 years 33-36 Mil but no more. Hes not a real #1, not a real Ace that just moe people down when you need them. Who make people look silly, who throws pitches that are unhittable. Id rather have an Oswalt, Halladay, Zambrano, Webb, Sabathia, Santana, etc as my big pitcher making big money. Buehrle gives up a ton of hits and IMO any guy throwing 88 mph tops, which he apparently now has trouble doing, is going to have trouble in the AL & will always need to be way too perfect. I love mark, but I love him making no more than 11 mil and being a #2 or lower. Please stop looking to him as the be all end all of pitching, give me Felix Hernandez over MB and any of the above mentioned legit aces. MB for 5 years/70 Mil no thanks not even 4 years 52 Mil. Go get someone that dominates for that price and keeps the ball from being hit in our hitter friendly park.
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QUOTE(dwalteroo @ May 2, 2007 -> 07:55 PM) Book it. The team needs a fundamental shake up - I say we either do this or get busy with a trade NOW. We can't sit around in our division and wait for things to get better, and we have the opportunity NOW. By the trading dealine, if we aren't in the thick of it, you know they will be looking to sell. Shake this boat, and do it right now. Agreed. Exactly the point is you cant afford to sit around and wait for things to get better. You cant sit here and wait for Thome and Pods to come back and give them a couple weeks to get back in a rhythm and just hope everything will be ok. Heck by the time that happens, if it happens, this team might be 12 games out. If you want survive at least for this year you need to do something now. The Mack/Ozuna/Cintron/Terrero circus isn't an answer its not going to prevent us from dipping below .500. The only thing you can do is add some life to the lineup, new talented excited life. Bring up Fields and Owens, and along with Sweeney get these guys moving. Then get Pods and Thome back and hit the ground running in a lineup that is already kicking. If you just try and survive and wait until Pods and Thome get back most likely it will just be too late, it always works out that way.
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Im getting really sick of seeing us either swing at the first pitch, or on 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, and 2-1 counts based on the situation not being that important. Meaning i see us swing at those counts oer on the 1st pitch either when we already have the lead or are down by a lot, as if it doesnt matter. But when the game is close, tied, etc I see us execute as the team we are; more patient, more fundamentals not swinging at the first pitch. We are never going to build or maintain a lead long enough to win against any team like this. Its really sickening.
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Its official Terrero is up. Mercy the lineup and depth keeping getting better and better every day.
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QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ May 1, 2007 -> 10:38 AM) Washburn used low and away against us last year, and threw his change in the dirt. It was a frustrating game to watch. We should do well this trip, as our lift and pull offense will be forced to hit line drives due to the geometry of the ballparks. Its hard even for Rob Deer to attack the large area of Safeco. We may see a better plan over the next few games, only to be undone when they get home. Yeah I remember now even Pablo was swinging at the junk in the dirt low and away and striking out, Iguchi too. SO much for stacking those righties when they all have the same lousy approach.
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Didn't washburn pitch a great game against us this time last year. If I remember correctly I think he went like 7 strong against us only giving up a few hits and 1 run. It was real frustrating to get dominated by Jerrod "Average" Washburn. I actually think it was the best outing of his year last year. I remember his ERA never being as low at any point last year as it was when he faced the sox last april. I am going to no friggin nuts if we get dominated by the most middle of the road pitching in the AL again.
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QUOTE(fathom @ Apr 29, 2007 -> 09:25 PM) If the Twins and Indians continue to get quality outings from the likes of Ortiz, Silva, and Carmona, we have no chance this year. The Indians are playing good baseball right now. Let them do that over 30+ starts this year and then I will agree. The first 6 starts mean almost nothing.
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Alex Rios, I think Tor was trying to move him at some point in the past.
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Just saw something on Post Game Live on CSN about it. Ozzie saying hes going to AAA. Did this happen earlier in the day or just now. And if he gets send down does that free a spot on the 25 man roster. Sweeney is already in for Thome and Logan for Pods so who else is coming up, Terrero? If so does this mean we roll out the clown car again for fill ins in the lineup with a different character playing Left or DH everyday.
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Mercy that was ridicolous. They had like 12 hits id say half were these little 4 hopper ground balls or jam shot bloopers with broken bats that just reaching the outfield. This is getting a little too aberration-like for me to consider quality baseball play. We had 8 hits yesterday drew 4 walks and stranded all 12 with 0 runs and then today. Man I dont remember ever before seeing this much un traditional like stuff. Just weird.
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There are two common theories in projecting team wins a losses. THe most common is probably the pythagorean principle in which a teams win total win percantage can be determined from this equation. RS^2 WPct = ------------ RS^2 + RA^2 The second theory is actually one that MLB.com lists on its standings called expected Wins and Losses. It is similar to the above formula with the aception that MLB has inserted a fixed value of 1.82 as a multiply to help eliminate uncertainty. WPct = RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82)) In the first equation the sox are represented to have a winning percantage of .522 and with second equation a winning percentage of .520. That would put us about 11-10 in the season so far based on those numbers. The interesting thing in my opinion is that if you believe in the equations representing real world scenarios then you can look at some teams now off to good starts and say with confidence that they dont belong or wont be there in the end. Cleveland for example is in first place with a 13-7 record. With their expected record given their RS and RA should be about 11-9, a mere 1 game better than the sox. The twins should be 12-11, the Tigers 12-10. So basically the numbers are showing no one should run away with this division and in the end there should be a bunch of teams right around the same records all fighting it out.
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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Apr 28, 2007 -> 12:30 AM) That's probably why most all of the posts you see contain the phrase or implied ideal of "extended period of time." I don't think anyone believes 2 weeks without Thome would kill the Sox but 1-2 months on the DL followed by lingering soreness and muscle tweaks could very well cause this team to tank. Definatly agree with that statement. This team is getting kind of old. Especially considering its 3 best offesive players are all 30+ years old. This is what happens when a slugger gets old, small nagging injuries like tweaks, pulls, and soreness. We either need a viable back up or KW was right in the offseason when he said he wont let this team get too old and slow to compete, ala the giants. The last thing we need is to become the Miami Heat of baseball. I see KW getting younger and younger over the next two offseasons. Probably meaning goodbye Dye and Thome when their contracts are up. Same with Contreras, he already got Freddy out. Man I wish we had a Vernon Wells or Carl Crawford.
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According to rotoworld.com According to the Chicago Tribune, Jim Thome (rib) may be held out of this weekend's games. Manager Ozzie Guillen said Thursday that he doesn't expect Thome to be placed on the disabled list. Damn our lineup gets kinda of weak with the big guy in there to change the dynamic of things. Oh well rather he sit a few now and get healthy cuz we are defiantly gonna need him all summer long.
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I was implying getting Terrero up here cuz we need OF's who can field their position. I wasn't necissarily saying we need at add a big bat. If we only have 3 OF's right now we are in trouble. Erstad, Pablo, and Anderson is all we got right now. We need another at least 1 more OF to come off the bench then. We have no depth there right now.
