Wedge

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Dec 4, 2005 -> 04:28 PM) Still funny ass s*** that ND gets in over Oregon when they are lower in the BCS rankings. I mean it is a BCS bowl they are going to afterall. What about the funny ass s*** that WVU and FSU made it? If you're going to b**** about Oregon not getting in, you have to mention those teams. When OSU got the #4 automatic berth, ND got an automatic berth. There were no "at-large" bids this year.

Brad Johnson would make this a SuperBowl worthy team.

QUOTE(Punch and Judy Garland @ Dec 4, 2005 -> 02:30 PM) As a Penn State fan, I'm pissed about drawing FSU. You go with just one loss and nearly make the Natl Championship game and you get saddled with an 8-4 team. Great And this is the true problem with the BCS. PSU should be playing Oregon not FSU.

QUOTE(Rex Hudler @ Dec 4, 2005 -> 11:56 AM) Now how would that work in a scenario where the #3 an #4 teams were say, Ohio State and Oregon, but Notre Dame finishes #6? Let's say for example purposes that the #1 and #2 teams are USC and Penn State in this scenario. You can't have three at-large teams! How can the twop 4 be automatic and Notre Dame have their deal? What if Texas were still #2 and Penn St. was #5, but still won the Big Ten over Ohio St (let's say a non-conference loss has them ranked behind Ohio St. or that Penn St. won the Big Ten berth via tiebreaker in a year they did not play OSU). See how "automatic" cold present problems? I don't hate the BCS like so many other people do, but there is no way the BCS can be designed to handle every possible scenario. If there is an at-large team #3 and #4, then #4 does not receive an automatic berth. If there is a #3 or #4 at-large team, then the Notre Dame automatic rule applies.

Gotta go with USC: best player in the country and they crushed an outstanding Big 12 team to win it last year.

QUOTE(THEWOOD @ Dec 3, 2005 -> 10:08 PM) IF FSU wins you can put OSU as a lock for the BCS. Top 4 teams are guranteed a BCS game!!! ND is also guarunteed if OSU gets an automatic berth.

Is it just me or are the new Nike uniforms for everything simply hideous? VTech and Miami's football jerseys and now Illinois's basketball jerseys? Awful!

QUOTE(Mplssoxfan @ Nov 29, 2005 -> 05:17 PM) I find it intriguing that through this BCS discussion, many of you are discounting PSU. I don't get that at all. They have an excellent defense, a decent offense, they are one play away from a 11-0 season, yet they get no love here. I don't get it. What's to discuss? They have a locked BCS berth, end of story. My guess is they play the ACC winner in the Orange Bowl. There isn't too much more to talk about, really.

QUOTE(Fotop @ Nov 29, 2005 -> 01:32 PM) Hell, Travis Thomas, at times has looked better than Walker. But really, Aldridge (the RB recruit you speak of) is going to be a stud. Personally I'm much more excited for Darrin Walls, 5star cornerback prospect. ND hasn't landed a top DB recruit since Bobby Taylor, and we sorely need help there. And the rest of the class ain't too shabby either, probably anywhere from #1-#3 when recruiting is all said and done. It truly is a new era Yeah, I get some goosebumps thinking about this incoming class. Can you imagine it when it's in its 3rd, 4th, and 5th year (with actualy player development!)? Aside from Aldridge (who I was referring to) we also have Prince who could be an outstanding runningback in his own right, featuring great breakaway speed. There's the two top-10 QB prospects coming in that should be lights out and I've also heard rumors that Clausen (the top QB for 2007's class) is a silent commit. We've got something like 5 top defensive backs coming in? Sure as hell beats the days of trying to convert "leftover" receivers. You're right about Walls, I think he's going to have an immense impact right away. He should at least be the nickleback starting out. ND just needs to get some more defensive linemen (I think they have quite a few strong prospects on the o-line finally). If you think ND has star power/marquee players now, just wait until 2007 when these guys are getting into the line-up regularly. Damn, ND is going to be really, really good. After the USC game this year, I predicted we wouldn't lose again until 2008 at the earliest, except to a potential BCS opponent this year. I think my prediction is going to stand-up. The team with the best shot to beat ND next year might be Georgia Tech, but after that I really don't think any team has a very good shot except for perhaps USC if Bush returns.

QUOTE(THEWOOD @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 09:04 PM) Samardzija...damn I forgot all about him...yes he is a great player. Hopefully he sticks with football. To answer your question about the Navy game, yes I did watch the game. I think I have seen just about every ND game besides the Pitt game this year. As long as it didnt conflict with OSU. If you could pick one why do you think ND should get the nod over OSU? I dont think Oregon deserves to be in a BCS game. OSU vs ND...why ND for the bowl bid? I didn't mean ND deserved a bid at the exclusion of OSU, sorry that wasn't very clear. Out of OSU, ND, and Oregon, I think the choices are clearly ND and OSU. Picking ND over OSU isn't really an issue in my mind. Scary thing about ND: their offense could be even better next year. They've got a 5-star RB coming in via early enrollment that might be even better than Walker.

QUOTE(THEWOOD @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 05:56 PM) What is your definition of "kill them"? I have been out of town and not able to check soxtalk so I quickly skimed over this thread. So forgive me if I mention something that has already been brought up and/or discussed. It seems there is a lot of talk about ND being a great team and individuals having a false sense of what ND is as a team. They simply have a good offense and best an average defense. When you let Navy put up 21 points on you AT HOME that is not impressive. I also saw something about marque players for ND on offense. I will give you Brady Quinn, but who else sticks out at a national level? Also I support ND, I am not "anti-ND". I just dont think they are as good as everyone wants to believe. I agree that the defense is suspect, but it has been effective at times as well. Out of curiousity, did you watch the Navy game or just see that Navy scored 21 points on ND? Maybe kill is too strong a term, but I really think that ND would soundly beat any team it would play in the Cotton Bowl or another non-BCS game. The argument is mostly over whether ND should get a BCS berth or not. Out of a pool of ND, OSU, and Oregon, I think ND definitely deserves the berth.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 04:54 PM) Again, what type of schedule they tried to put together doesn't matter. So Tennessee was supposed to be a top 10 team. They aren't. That means that ND doesn't get credit for beating a top 10 team, because Tennessee isn't one. How does that rip them for scheduling? Also as I said, even if you ignore the teams that were supposed to be good that weren't, they still had several cupcakes on the schedule that rarely have good teams, like BYU, Stanford, Syracuse, Navy, and Washington. In the past they've played the big guys when they were good, but this year simply wasn't one of them. That's more the way it is than anything. My main argument is that ND hasn't really been tested this year outside of their loses to MSU and USC, the Michigan game that they just barely won that involved a lot of luck (how often is Michigan going to go 0-4 in the red zone? I can give ND credit for two, but not all four. Plus one of ND's touchdowns was tipped up, turning a possible pick into a touchdown, and the refs chose to review the play where Henne fumbled instead of the one before it when it looked like he was clearly in the end zone), and a Stanford team that they should have smoked. In their BCS bowl, they're going to play a team that is far better than anyone they've faced but USC. We don't really know exactly how they'll perform because they haven't played anyone like OSU, PSU or LSU that can actually stop people. If they play someone with a top level defense, which they probably will, they could be in trouble. Their defense isn't exactly the greatest and they rely on their offense a lot. Even the most of their weaker opponents were able to score 20. So far the only game I've really been impressed with how they played was that USC game, which also happened to be USC's worst game of the year in my opinion. Could that be attributed to ND? Partially. However, parts of that game were self inflicted. ND played about as well as they could and still lost. They almost certainly won't get blown out because they have a solid offense and a good coach, but I wouldn't be too confident about getting a win just yet. Don't give me that everyone targets ND crap either. Maybe some of the teams do, but several of them have bigger rivals. USC actually has the target on their back. Michigan would like it a lot more if they beat OSU than ND. Tennessee's biggest rival is clearly Florida. Most of the other ones have no real rivalry with ND. Plus, it's an out of conference game for everyone else, dropping its significance. The only team I can see that clearly targets ND is the Purdue team you already mentioned. Maybe next year this will be the case after ND's season, but they snuck up on a lot of people this year. It's your beliefs and the fact that they are somewhat pervasive throughout the college football fanbase that will make ND's BCS game so intriguing. If they go to a lesser game, like the Cotton Bowl, they'll face a much lesser opponent and probably kill them like they've done to many teams on the schedule. A BCS game for ND is really the only way to satisfy both the "ND isn't back yet" crowd and the 'ND is back" crowd since it's the only way they'll play a high enough quality opponent to answer everybody's questions.

QUOTE(J-MAN @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 04:14 PM) Too bad there aren't any more service academies for them to play ! Maybe the Coast Guard - kind of hard not to be five hundred when you line up a bunch of cupcakes - three service academies and Stanford who they almost lost to last weekend! You're hilarious. I guess I didn't realize that Mark May posts here.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 02:00 PM) Unless you're playing a directional school, most teams aren't going to beat anyone 9 out of 10 times on a nuetral field. That's irrelevant, because few teams are going to dominate other major schools that significantly, with the possible exception of Texas and USC this year. However, there are a lot of other teams that I think might go 5-5 if you played 10 times. That's probably what would happen if you're going up against quality opponents. Also, since you only play a team once and there is no way to prove whether or not a team could do it, the whole idea is pure conjecture and adds nothing to an argument. I use the 10 game measure because funny things can happen, especially in football. When I say 5-5, that means there's an even match-up. I said what I said because you called ND "decent, but not spectacular" which I don't think is true at all. They're in the elite of college football this season. They've qualified under the terms of the BCS for a BCS bowl and deserve inclusion.

I disagree. The offense is pretty talented and Mooch hasn't done much with it. He isn't a terribly good coach and there are a number of problems on this team that can be directed back at Mooch. I know a lot of people blame Millen, but there is definitely enough talent on their offense to compete for playoff spot this year.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 11:34 AM) Going from 5-6 to 6-6 doesn't make you a winning team. It doesn't make you an above .500 team either. It makes you a slightly better mediocre team. What does make a difficult schedule then, playing a bunch of usually good teams that are off this year? That makes no sense. Unless 3 or 4 of the winning teams you play are 9-2 or better, I don't see how you can argue that playing 4 winning teams out of 11 makes a tough schedule. I said that about the 500 teams because somebody else was using that as a point to show ND's schedule is weak. It's a weak line of reasoning that the number of 500 or better teams you play is a good metric, that's why I went into the computer rankings, which show that ND has played a schedule that ranks in the top 20. Not the toughest in the country, but one that is pretty credible. If you replaced Tennessee on ND's schedule with OSU or PSU, would it really look that much different from a typical Big 10 Schedule, aside from the spacing issues you mentioned? I agree that ND's schedule isn't as tough as it has been in the recent past, but this year's schedule was not easy by any stretch of the imagination and bringing it back full circle, I think that ND's schedule makes them a much more legitimate BCS team than Oregon. I think you're right on about the comparisons to a poor man's USC. They're USC without Reggie Bush, so their bowl game fate will probably be indicative of what USC will do next season without Bush. I think you're wrong when you call them a "decent, but not spectacular team". I can't think of a team outside of the top 10 that would beat them 9 times out of 10 on a neutral field. I think that's a bit better than decent. I think they're also even with all the teams in the top 10 except for USC and Texas. I'm not sure who's overrating their defense. It's been solid and has improved since last year, but I think many Irish fans think it needs to improve to have a real chance to compete for a National Title. ND vs OSU is a very intriguing game. It's a historical rivalry and there's a lot of bad blood between the schools, particularly the older alumni. OSU has more marquee players on defense, but I think ND has more marquee players on offense. Weis vs. Tressel is an interesting match-up, since Tressel is known to do well in the big game. I think on a neutral field that they split 10 games played and I definitely don't see ND getting blown out by 4 or 5 TDs as I've seen posted.

QUOTE(J-MAN @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 08:38 AM) NU!!!! How many teams with records over .500 did the Irish beat ? You're right, playing teams over .500 is the only indicator of a difficult schedule. EDIT: Counter-point: Pittsburgh, Purdue, Tennessee and Stanford all finished at one game below 500. Had ND lost to them, they would have played 8 teams above .500. Removing the ND game, ND played 8 games against teams at 500 or better (Michigan, Navy, USC, and BYU are the others). In the end, ND played five 5-6 teams (Michigan State included), but not all 5-6 teams are equal. There's got to be a difference between a 5-6 Purdue or Tennesse and 5-6 Louisiana-Monroe or San Diego State. When you account for opponents' opponents (i.e. opponents' SOS), the Sagarin rankings find ND to have the 20th hardest schedule this season. While you are correct that the Big 10 was typically a tougher schedule this year, I don't think that's a historic norm and ND had a pretty comparable schedule. As a comparison, USC had the 21st ranked schedule, Texas had 34, VTech was 32, LSU was 62, WVU was 68, and Oregon was 31.

QUOTE(Felix @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 09:55 PM) If they went to Happy Valley, PSU would shut them down, as they did to Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State, or any other team that came there this year. If they played PSU at Notre Dame, PSU would still likely win. They would lose to Ohio State and Northwestern (amazing offense, and with ND not having that great a defense, it would likely spell trouble), while Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota would give them trouble, and possibly take a game or two. Just my thoughts though. ND's schedule was really funky this year. It featured 3 preseason Top-4 teams and a host of other preseason ranked teams (such as Pitt and Purdue) and an MSU team that really peaked for the ND game. Other than USC, almost every team on ND's schedule fell well short of expectations. In a few cases, such as when ND shelacked Purdue and Pitt, it really sent some teams into a tailspin they never recovered from. In Purdue's case, I think the ND loss really lost the team for Tiller (one of his underclassmen indicated he was leaving for the NFL Draft via fax) and the Pitt loss really deflated the program (there was a lot of hype coming into the season over the new favorite-son alumni coach in Wanny, but the game really showed how clueless he was). In Pitt's case, losing to ND probably caused a hangover that led to the loss to Ohio. In Purdue's case, it was a full-out tail-spin that took a month to recover from. Even though MSU won, they suffered a similar effect. If you saw them play at ND stadium that day, they played at such a level that they seriously looked like they could contend for a national title. After beating ND, they almost completely lost their intensity and focus and never again came close to looking like that team that beat ND. Part of that had to do with the OSU loss when Smith lost part of his team by throwing them under the bus. Hell, even Michigan had a meltdown (certainly in the fanbase) when they lost to ND. ND's schedule didn't end up nearly as tough as it started out, but I think it's still as ambitious a national schedule as you can play. Next year's schedule is pretty ambitious with games against UM, PSU, USC, GTech, and UCLA. These are all teams that have done very well this year and should all finish in the top 15. There are some other good teams on that schedule like Purdue, Pitt, and Stanford that should be on the rise after disappointing (but somewhat promising) 2005 seasons. ND's 2005 schedule was probably a wash with a typical Big 10 schedule. Let's compare ND and UM's 2006 schedules: ND: @ Georgia Tech PENN STATE MICHIGAN @ Michigan St. PURDUE STANFORD UCLA @ Navy (Baltimore) NORTH CAROLINA @ Air Force ARMY @ Southern Cal Michigan: BALL STATE CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ Notre Dame WISCONSIN @ Minnesota MICHIGAN STATE @ Penn State IOWA NORTHWESTERN @ Indiana @ Ohio State Common opponents: Michigan State Penn State Michigan might have a very slight edge here, but that's debatable. If PSU is a tough team, then it is a slight edge for ND to play PSU at ND. If PSU is crappy like the last few years again, I think it's a wash. I'm also obviously throwing out ND vs. Michigan. I'll break down the list further: ND Non-BCS opponents @ Navy ARMY @ Air Force UM Non-BCS opponents BALL STATE CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ Indiana (explanation, I know they're Big 10) all right, so I took out the Non-BCS opponents and both play some patsies. I think @ Navy and @ Indiana is roughly equal, despite Indiana being a BCS team. ND BCS opponents @ Georgia Tech PURDUE STANFORD UCLA NORTH CAROLINA @ Southern Cal UM BCS opponents WISCONSIN @ Minnesota IOWA NORTHWESTERN @ Ohio State The big season ending road games are both toughies against big rivals. These will be both teams' most difficult opponents. USC has been a dynasty lately, so if it's not a push, it has to be an edge to ND. The next best team for ND is either @ GTech or UCLA, where UM next best are WISC or IOWA. Both are home games for UM and I think GTech and UCLA are both better teams than WISC and IOWA. I think that's a pretty clear edge to ND. Purdue and @ Minnesota are a pretty equal, so either a push or a slight edge to UM. I think Stanford and Northwestern are pretty similar teams, although NU graduates its QB and Stanford will have a pretty good one coming back, push or slight edge to ND. ND plays a 12th game in UNC. A patsy, but another chance for someone to get hurt. In conclusion, I think that ND's 2006 schedule is very favorable to a typical Big 10 schedule on paper. I think that ND has some more challenges in that they play teams from a variety of conferences, thus they have to handle many different styles of play. For a counter example, examine an SEC team from this season. They all follow the same formula and would probably not handle out of conference games terribly well.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 04:48 PM) Down for it's own standards but. LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia are all top 15-20 Florida and SC are 20-30ish I'd say that's exactly right, then. There's several good teams in the conference, but no really elite team. When I've watched PSU or OSU this year, they've definitely stood out much more than anybody from the SEC. The SEC is overrated in the sense that since the four top teams are all about equal and there is no real conference elite, that overall it's the best conference. Heck, if you played the top 5 or 6 from the SEC against any other conference's top 5 or 6, the SEC probably does very well except for the Big 10. That said, I just don't see a representative from the SEC stacking up well with any of the elite teams. However, they'll probably win their BCS game since it'll be the Sugar Bowl against WVU.

Is Grossman ready to go? I heard that the only reason he was the #3 quarterback was because they wanted to cut Kittner to make a roster spot open for Berlin. All three pregame radio shows (Score, ESPN1000, and the station the game was on, 780?) all were in agreement that it was a minor gamble because Rex was at best 65-70% ready to play in a game if needed. I'll bet it's pretty similar next week, only Rex will be up to about 75-80% and will actually have some practice time with the team. He'll definitely be #2 for next game and I think Lovie has come out and said that Orton is their guy barring injury. I think it's only fair. He's shown a lot of toughness, both physically and mentally and he's just a persistent little bugger. In today's game, I didn't see a lot of help from his WRs. When he broke out of the pocket, it seemed like none of them broke their routes to help him out. I don't think Grossman is much of an upgrade at this point, considering he hasn't seen live NFL action for over a year now.

OK, I found the Pure Points rankings: Texas USC OSU VTech PSU ND Michigan Louisville Miami-FL West Virginia Oregon Texas Tech Fresno St Auburn LSU It's interesting to see just how far down that list Auburn and LSU are when you consider MOV. Also consider that this ranking is considered much better than Elo-chess in terms of predicted head-to-head on a neutral field.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 03:56 PM) Alright I gotcha. The most respected computer polls is the one by Sagarin. Elo-chess is the component that uses only winning and losing and no margin of victory. Sagarin also employs a margin of victory metric in his Pure Points metric, but has had that element removed to comply with the latest BCS restrictions. Sagarin uses Bayesian weights on victories in calculating its rankings. These weights are initially based on coaches/AP rankings, but once all the teams are connected (i.e. you can trace a game from Team A to Team B) these weightings are replaced with ones calculated by the computer poll through the use of a Bayesian network. It's pretty neat stuff, trust me. I can't locate the Pure Points rankings for 2005 (likely Sagarin has not released them), but in Elo Chess of note is the following: 1 Texas 2 Southern California 3 Penn State 4 Ohio State 5 Virginia Tech 6 Notre Dame 7 Oregon 8 Michigan 9 Miami-Florida 10 West Virginia 11 LSU 12 Texas Tech 13 Auburn I wonder what Pure Points looks like. Pure Points tends to be a better predictor of head-to-head match-ups than Elo Chess.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 03:49 PM) I am not positive but I'm pretty sure the BCS eliminated the SOS The BCS itself did, but the computer polls it employs still use them. Without SOS (and opponents SOS), the computers really have nothing to go by since Margin of Victory (MOV) was banned.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 02:59 PM) I think the SEC as a whole this year is a collection of teams with above average defenses and bad offenses. For the most part, many of the SEC teams started out highly ranked. Thus, when a lower ranked SEC team beat a higher ranked one, there was basic conservation of overall rankings within the conference. When I look at the best four teams from the SEC this year: LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Alabama, I see teams that aren't much different form Tennessee, except with better quarterback play (Alabama being the clear exception, they got by with a better defense and some luck). If ND plays one of those teams in a bowl, I just don't see them having the offenses to keep up with ND and I think Weis's offense would neutralize the athleticism of their defenses, much like it did against Tennessee. Oregon, like its schedule, is a total joke. Which team is worse, Montana or Syracuse? At worst they're equal, but more likely Syracuse would beat them head-to-head. Yet under the current most BCS computer poll SOS systems, playing Montana gives Oregon a large boost over ND, because Montana was 8-4 and Syracuse was 1-10. OSU lost a tough game to PSU and Texas. Clearly, both ND and OSU have progressed significantly since both their losses, but I think that College Football is primarly offensive in that the better offense wins. Defense does not play the same role it does in the NFL since it is very difficult to build the collection of athletes to have a dominating defense. Is there a College team with a defense that you would bet everything you own on to keep the elite teams, say USC or Texas, under 28 points? Ultimately, I feel like Weis would use a lot of 4 and 5 wide sets to neutralize OSU's linebackers and ND would come out on top in that type of match-up. I think ND is a better team than the other three being debated, but I suppose that's why they play the game, right? With all that said, I don't think any fans would be unhappy if the BCS just lined up and played the top 8 teams in the 4 games. WVU does not belong in a BCS game and if VTech lays a turd against FSU, then neither team deserves a BCS game.

QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 02:16 PM) ND and Oregon's schedules are pretty damn close, the difference is Oregon has 1 loss. OSU had a tougher schedule and Auburn had a much tougher schedule, this really isn't a tough decision in my mind but ND gets the bid cause of who they are. Alternately, ND and Oregon both have 9 wins against Division I opponents. OSU and Auburn played in overrated conferences. You can say these things about each team. If you're really mad about the absense of Oregon or Auburn (the two likely to be left out), then be mad at the BCS which protects unworthy conference champs like West Virginia and FSU if it can beat VTech. ND is a top 8 team in the BCS and would probably beat both Oregon and Auburn; thus, I think they deserve a spot over those two teams. I think on a neutral field that they beat OSU. That said, I agree with Fotop. It's good to be hated again.