BlackBetsy

It's not that I wouldn't want Renteria if the Chairman broke out the checkbook, it's that I think that the Sox have a limited budget and the money spent on Edgar would be better spent on a more desparate need. Here's my equation: Renteria VORP - Uribe VORP Assuming that Renteria will cost the same or more than Wright/Clement, I would prefer the Sox get Wright or Clement. Of course, with an unlimited budget, we aren't talking about Renteria...I would be asking for Garciaparra, Pedro, Radke, Jeff Kent, Carlos Beltran, Jason Varitek, Corek Koskie, Matt Clement etc. How's this unlimited budget lineup? SS Garciaparra 2B Kent CF Beltran LF Lee DH Thomas 1B Konerko C Varitek 3B Koskie RF Rowand (shoot, would we even keep Rowand around?) P Pedro P Radke P Garcia P Buehrle P Clement All this can be yours for the low, low payroll of... $17 Beltran $14 Pedro $9 Radke $9 Garciaparra $9 Wright $9 Garcia $9 Kent $8 Lee $8 Konerko $8 Thomas $8 Varitek $6 Buehrle $6 Koskie $6 Clement $2 Rowand Total - $128 million. Then you need a bullpen. Here's a shocker - THE YANKEES ALREADY HAVE A PAYROLL FOR NEXT YEAR IN EXCESS OF THAT "DREAM" FREE AGENT CLASS.

Renteria isn't worth $7 million a year to the Sox when they have Juan Uribe entering his prime years and on the cheap. I'd rather save the $6 million salary differential and put it to picking up Luis Castillo's $5 million salary and his .370 career OBP from the Marlins, or putting it toward Matt Clement. There's more value to be had elsewhere. Or, in the alternative, paying Garciaparra an extra $2 million for the production he brings. Disappointingly, there are very few free agents in the positions the Sox need the most, like catcher and second base and third base. As to third base, I do have a feeling that Joe Crede will turn around next year. He knows he has a problem with his swing and is dedicated to correcting it. In addition, people don't hit like Joe hit in the second half of 2003 without having talent. He'll turn it around in 2004 and I foresee a .280/.330/.480 season from him - with a 25-30 Cell-aided home run total. He still won't walk nearly enough, but he'll hit for a higher average and have more consistent power. With a .810 OPS, he'll be in the top half of AL third basemen, and no longer a 20-30 run drag on the offense. The other issues is how much Konerko and Rowand come down to Earth. My thought is that Paulie loses 8-10 homers, but keeps around the same average and OBP. Rowand I think hits .280/.330/.440 himself, meaning that he'll be a solid CF contributor, but not much of a corner outfielder offensively. Look for Carlos to go nuts in his walk year. Think .310/.380/.550 with 35+ homers. I'm dead serious. He's in his prime, has figured out how to hit, and is going to come in loaded for bear in 2005.

3 years $15 million is a steal if Benson is getting 4 years $29.5 million. Stupid freaking Mets. Benson was only a league average pitcher last year for Pete's sake. Here's a hint - Garland's ERA+ was 100. Benson's was 97! New York baseball spending will be the end of us all. I gauge Wright as the 2nd or 3rd best free agent pitcher out there (see the Washington Nationals blog I share with a couple of buddies. The Sox would do very well to sign him for only $1.6 million per year more than Garland. Heck, Wright's a good deal at $6 million. I'd probably still prefer Clement to some extent - fewer questions about durability - but I think that Wright would be a solid signing. A rotation of Garcia-Buerhle-Wright-Contreras-Garland is, hands down, the best in the division. Now if we could only get some NL team to poach Radke (hint, hint Nationals), the Sox will be living the high life (again).

No thanks on Matheny - his career .293 will cost the Sox more runs than they will save with him behind the plate. I'd rather have Todd Pratt, who has a career .355 OBP, take 200 AB behind the plate and let Jamie Burke and Ben Davis split the rest of the time. Gregg Zaun - as weird as it may be - would not be a bad option, either. If the Rockies pick up $5 million per year on Charles Johnson's deal (or if they want to trade Johnson and a pitcher for Contreras), CJ may not be a bad deal. He doesn't hit like he used to, but he still has a decent batting eye and can get on base. Defensively, we all know he's solid. Let's face it, the catching solution is not going to come for the 2005 season. And the Sox have no catching prospects on the horizon who will start above low-A ball next year.

Absolutely. If I were the owners, I would use the Ordonez case as Exhibit A as to why players should still be considered "signed" by their teams and subject to medical examinations until the time for the arbitration decision is made. But here's the rub - if Maggs were really healthy, then Boras would have had Maggs examined by the Sox's doctors. I'd be very suspicious about Maggs if I were another GM about - why would Boras try to induce the Sox to offer Maggs arbitration to get a draft pick if they didn't know whether he was healthy or not?

Let me say as more of a reader than a poster, ALL of the posts that criticize other posters make me think less about the poster. One reason I post here rather than WSI is that there is far better coverage of the Sox minor leagues here - through the futuresox people and some of the posters - and because there are all sorts of artificial rules at WSI. And because people are catty over there and like to post "this thread sucks" etc. and are fascist in insistence on what color font you use. Like I f***ing care. (Oh, the swearing, too.) But if this place is going to be an insult fest, then it's outlived its usefulness in my mind. Here's a tip - if someone insults you, remember one thing - it's an Internet message board. Someone who needs to insult other people on Internet message boards to get their jolleys is a pretty sad person. There's no reason to respond. Ignore it.

Yup, using VORP is a sloppy shorthand method. But RP and VORP are measured so that you can compare pitchers vs. hitters relatively well.

Holy bejeebus those moves would be freaking fantastic: DYE VORP 23.3 CASTILLO VORP 33.5 WRIGHT VORP 40.8 total added VORP = 96.6 LEE VORP = 46.8 total subtracted VORP = 46.8 added VORP = 39.8 Salaries added - Wright $5 M, Castillo $4.7 M, Dye $4.25 M = $14M Salaries subtracted - Lee $8.5 M Net salary added = $5.5 million This would be a fantastic set of deals.

He really needs more time to post...still at work at 10 p.m. Eastern....but things could better soon.

Just figured out that with (1) a full season of Garcia and Contreras at 2004 levels; (2) 2004 performances from Buehrle and Garland; and (3) 2004 performance from Jaret Wright, the Sox would have a starting rotation with a 165.1 VORP, which is 73.8 runs better than in 2004. Subtract 74 runs from the 2004 White Sox, and they add 8 wins - up to a 91 win season. Now subtract out Radke's 60 VORP from the Twins (roughly 6 wins) , and I think you get the Sox by something like 5 games

Just a gruesome signing by any stretch of the imagination. Structure is $3.6 in 2005, $3.75 in 2006 and a $800,000 buyout if the Reds don't exercise 2007 option. I just don't get the last $800k. I really could see $3.5 million, but the buyout nudges it up to $4.1 per...doesn't make sense. Add that to the fact that Wilson pitched in a pitcher's park (GAB actually had a 93 batter's park factor, believe it or not) and had a slightly lucky .283 BABIP...could get ugly for Cincinnati next year and in '06. I'd be surprised after the Wilson deal that we'd get Wright for anything less than $5.5, or Clement for anything less than $5.5, either.

It's the best rotation in the division by 3 or 4 lengths, even if the Twinkies re-sign Radke. If the Twinkies lose Radke (and his 60 VORP from last year), that rotation is the best by 10 or 15 lengths...If Radke signs elsewhere and the Sox sign Wright, all other things equal, the Sox win the division by 5-7 games. Here are a couple of things. Johan Santana was great last year. But he also had his share of luck, too. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .250, as opposed to the league average of .296. That means fewer balls dropped in on him than other pitchers. (Don't say the Twinkies' defense was good, either - the overall BABIP for Twins pitchers was .303 - behind the league average). It's been proven that BABIPs like that don't stay the same from year to year - the pitcher has essentially no control once the ball is in play. Look for Santana to regress to the mean next year. He'll still be very, very good, but his ERA will be more like 3.30 rather than 2.90 - probably causing him to lose 2-3 more games. (Carlos Silva was marginally, lucky, too - his BABIP was .277.) Wright actually had a league-average BABIP of .291 against him. He wasn't particularly lucky and he had a 3.28 ERA. That's pretty solid. His low homer total (11) was amazing given that Turner Field gives up 13% more homers than average. I think Wright would be an excellent signing. Perez, on the other hand, has had 2 sub-4 ERA's in the past three years in Dodger Stadium, which is perhaps THE pitcher's park of this ERA (with apologizes to Petco and Comerica before they brought in the fences). But he needed absurdly low BABIPs to do it - a microscopic .247 in 2002 and .262 in 2004. When he's been good, he's gotten lucky. His home run rate would be poor in US Cellular (he gave up 26 last year playing half his games in Dodger Stadium), and I'd expect an ERA in the mid-to-high 4's with the White Sox. Not worth the $6 million or so the Sox would spend on him - he'd be another Jon Garland, essentially.

Blanco - career .288 OBP. Matheny - career .293 OBP. They'd have to throw out a hell of a lot of baserunners to make it worth carrying their sorry bats. And Blanco threw out 30 of 61? That compares to 20 of 51 for Burke/Davis. Assuming the same 50% caught stealing rate, that means 5 extra CS per year with Blanco...hardly worthy paying $1.25 million per year. Blanco's anemic stick vastly outweighs any defensive benefit he brings. Want veteran leadership? Sign Todd Pratt, of the career .350 OBP and "pitcher handling" ability. 3.95 Catcher's ERA for a team with an overall 4.45 ERA. (Of course, he only threw out 4 of 32 base stealers....) Over 300 AB, Pratt would get on base 20 times more than Blanco...

What I find totally bizarro is that I accurately predicted Garland's salary to the freaking dollar here a few months ago. I mean, it was just a stupid wild ass guess, but I was on the money.

I think if Minnesota is only offering 2 years, $7 million, they are nuts. If I were the Sox, I'd offer him 3 years, $12 million easily. He gets on base a lot (.377 career OBP) and his power would go way up playing at US Cellular. Moreover, signing Koskie makes the Twins immediately worse. I'm all for this - and it really allows the Sox more flexibility in trading Lee or Konerko away.

I like Jose a lot, but I'm growing increasingly concerned that the Sox are only ever good when they are out to pad their stats. Notice that they are 8-4 since they were eliminated.

The A-J call of the 9-10 is not really bad. I would think that the guy thinks you have top pair or something (maybe holding J-10) and it's a coin flip situation where a big bet might take you off. If he raised pre-flop (like he should have), he might think he could make you put him on QQ or JJ and throw away your 10's. He was probably pretty bummed to get a call and then have the call for two pair. As to the J-5 limp in.....unless you were on the big blind, I think you learned a lesson about limping in with something like that. Better off throwing it away.

There are few (if any) baseball players who hit more than .400 for half a season in the Southern League and did not become successful regulars in the Major Leagues. Not true. Jon Garland pitched well, and had a good record and a good ERA, but gave up a fair amount of hits, walked too many, and didn't strike out enough. His peripheral statistics were not dominant by any measure. That said, I have no problem trading Reed for Garcia at that point in the season if you think you have a good shot at resigning Garcia. Here's the problem with Reed. His value drops dramatically when you move him to LF where he belongs. His production is probably similar to Carlos's, with more OBP but much less SLG. It doesn't bother me that the Sox traded a corner OF prospect for a top of the rotation starter. Not one bit.

So we can b**** and moan next year about the 5th starter hole being a black hole? Felix Diaz is not a major league starter. I'd rather pay Garland $3 million to go 11-11 from the 5th hole with a 4.8 ERA than to watch the parade of horribles the Sox trotted out this year - 100 earned runs in 100 innings (about that). Those extra 11 wins are worth a lot of $$, in my book. Here's to hoping that the Sox make a ground-ball, top-of-the-rotation starter like Clement, Odalis Perez or Carl Pavano their #1 free agent signing. Here's to hoping that Garland is a #5 starter for the White Sox next year and puts up the same numbers as this year.... And here's to hoping that Jose Contreras gets a brain transplant in the offseason.

I like Clement for the GB/FB ratio as well. He's likely to be relatively cheap - think $5-$6 million per. And the Sox cannot get a guy that is a flyball pitcher. You can tell that it's already affecting Freddy Garcia, whose ERA has been not so good with the White Sox despite his 8-4 ERA. Too many home runs on fly balls at US Cellular. By the way, here are the top GB/FB starters who might be available: Derek Lowe (high ERA, but GB/FB of 2.88) Clement - 1.6 ratio Odalis Perez - 1.59 ratio Pavano - 1.42 ratio I'd take any one of them if I were the Sox.

I don't think this trade, but mostly for money reasons. Eric Byrnes' salary is only $328,000 this year. He'll be eligible for his first year of arbitration so you can figure he'd get about $1.5-$2.0 million - about the same as Aaron Rowand will get. Zito is a free agent after next year and stands to make about $5 million next year. There is a club option for 2006. So the A's would be trading about $6.5-$7 million for: Carlos Lee will make $8 million next year. There is a club option for $8.5 million for 2006. I don't think Konerko works because the A's already have Durazo and Hatteberg, who Billy Beane loves. Jon Garland is in his second year of arbitration and is likely to make $3 million (I know it's a raise and he doesn't deserve it, but that's the facts, jack) So the A's would be ADDING $4-$4.5 million for Carlos Lee - whose season was only a little bit better than Byrnes' and Jon Garland, who's season was quite a bit worse than Zito's. And the A's don't add payroll like that. And why do you do that trade? It doesn't improve your team. Add that to the fact that Zito is an EXTREME flyball pitcher, and Zito doesn't make much sense in US Cellular. He'd get shelled, and shelled bad in that bandbox.

I'm surprised it's that many, the way they've pitched. Don't let Ozzie's ranting about small ball fool you - pitching is why the Sox collapsed.

(1) I agree that it doesn't have any bearing at all if a team is really interested...but may keep 1 or 2 teams that might be interested away. (2) Magglio Ordonez will not get more than $12-$13 million in an arbitration (what the Sox were willing to pay him anyway). Book that - they look at comparable players, and the Vlad Guerrero (better player at $14 mil) and Garrett Anderson deal (comparable player at $12 mil) really box Maggs in. Now the question is whether the Sox would even risk an arbitration offer at $11.2 million. I think they probably will. If they get a healthy Maggs at $12 million, then they are doing pretty well. If he signs somewhere else, they get a #1 pick. Plus, they can ALWAYS trade him - arbitration deals do not include no trade clauses - midway through the year in a pennant race and save 1/2 his salary. If he isn't healthy (which I think is a low probability), then, sure they suffer. But the alternatives are A LOT better. Hey, I think I just talked myself into believing that the Sox would be smart to offer him arbitration.

I agree that Kenny probably shouldn't have been talking about Magglio's health at all once he was done for the season and could have become a free agent. The only thing it could possibly do is piss off Magglio. If you believe that statement (Magglio has a potentially career threatening injury) to be true, keep it quiet so you can offer him a $11.2 million deal, let him reject it, and you get a draft pick when someone else takes a flyer on him. If you don't believe it, don't say it. I also agree that you don't take Magglio's money and split it up among 3-4 different players. Spend it on 1 great player or 2 very good ones. The one real monkey in the ointment (What? Forget it, the metaphor's over, just let it go) is the Expos/Senators - will the new ownership buy players like Pavano, Cabrera, etc. to make the team competitive right away? That could have a dramatic effect on the market. [Actually, with Tomo Okha coming back next year, and Hernandez, Armas Jr. already inthe rotation... if the Expos add a Pavano or Radke to the rotation, that's a pretty good rotation. Now trade for a Carlos Lee, and sign someone like JD Drew - hey, not too shabby].

Agreed. He's got a good attitude, and maybe isn't the best leader, but is extremely knowledgeable. The 1990 White Sox were perhaps my favorite team. They had very little talent (until Frank came up in August), but were very scrappy and a great team to watch.