BlackBetsy

QUOTE(farmteam @ Jan 23, 2005 -> 01:15 PM) You beat me to it, TLAK! Kubel's out the entire year, and Ford and Restovich are corners, not CFers. I think Ford has played CF when Hunter has been injured/resting, and is passable enough to hold it down for a while. Heck, nobody thought Rowand was a CF, but he's turned out to be more than a passable (if not very good) defensive CF. This guy the Twinks have coming up at shortstop worries me - supposedly he can really hit. That's exactly what the Sox need - a Twinkie shortstop that can hit and is cheap. I wish the Sox had this kind of farm system depth. There's not a single guy who is major league ready at an infield position in the minors. And Josh Fields, who's been with the Sox organization for all of seven months, is probably closest to being ML ready. Scary. (That said, Brandon McCarthy might be one of the top 5 pitching prospects in baseball, and starting pitching is FAR more valuable than anything else. Ugh. I just remembered Jon Rauch).

QUOTE(Jabroni @ Jan 23, 2005 -> 12:34 PM) And if you think the Twins will never trade Torii Hunter, consider this: Hunter will earn $8 million in 2005 which is approximately 15% of the Twins' payroll and $10.75 million in 2006 which will be approximately 25% of the Twins' payroll. They just can't afford to keep Hunter, especially when they have Ford, Restovich, and Kubel earning nothing. Lew Ford can play CF. The Twins aren't going to pay Hunter $10.75 million in 2006. Not a chance in hell. An extremely astute observation. An outfield of Ford/Jones/Restovich contains all of the three elements that the Twins desire in an outfield - cheap, cheap and cheap. I think that Kubel is pretty much a no-go next year because of his injury. Because of Kubel's injury, I have doubts that the Twins would move Hunter this year (his $8 million is manageable this year while Santana is still relatively cheap). However, I would be surprised if the Twinkies don't move hime before opening day 2006 to avoid his $10.75 million in salary. With Kubel healed, I'd expect a Kubel/Ford/Restovich outfield. Jones will undoubtedly be gone after 2005, if not by the trading deadline.

I voted for El Duque - not because he'll be lights out - but because having El Duque means the Sox will finally have a 5th starter that can win half or more of his games. My guess is that the 5th starter spot easily cost the Sox 4-5 games last year.

QUOTE(Jabroni @ Jan 21, 2005 -> 11:48 AM) I think Kenny should split the difference between Iguchi's agent's proposal (2 years, $6 million) and his own (2 years, $4 million). Offer Iguchi a 2-year, $5 million contract with a team option for 2007... 2005 - $2.5 million 2006 - $2.5 million 2007 - $4.0 million team option That's a nice structure - I might even give Iguchi a $500k buyout for the 2007 option to guarantee Iguchi $5.75 million over 2 years. If he works out, great. If not, the $500k two years from now is pretty cheap. Even if Iguchi puts up Matsui-type production at 2B, you probably can trade him for a prospect if you agree to eat $1 million of his salary. Matsui-type production (.331 OBP/ .370 SLG) at $1.5 million is cheap, cheap, cheap in MLB these days. Mind you, you can convert Kaz Matsui's stats at Shea - a pitcher's park - to something more like .345/.400 at US Cellular, which makes him a more valuable player anyway. Let's get this deal DONE.

I think where the poster said "two older kids, maybe 16" did it says pretty much everything you need to know about it.

I have sigs turned OFF because, while they may be signs of individuality, from your sigs, I'd rather not know quite a few of you as individuals Actually, two of the reasons I turned off sigs and avatars is that (1) a couple of people had politically-charged avatars or sigs that I didn't like (this is a SOX board), and I didn't want their political beliefs getting in the way of how I responded to posts (and to tell you the truth, I can't even remember who was what now, which was the point); and (2) DonkeyKongerko's sig mesmerized me a little too much. For some reason I just watch that chick doing her dance over and over...it's a little weird.

24 years old is awfully old for High-A. Then again, he was pretty effectively blocked by Prince Fielder at 1B. Here's BA's stats page for the Brewers farm system. He doesn't walk too much (48 BB vs. 536 AB) but then again doesn't walk too little. .302/.367/.502 was his line, which is good for a 21 yr old first baseman in the California league, but not so great for a 24 year old. 19 errors at 1B - !!! He never hit above .277 before in the minors...maybe he is blossoming. Here's his prior performance.

Out of the Burke/Davis duo...I would have kept Burke. You know, I've always thought Burke was a journeyman, but he really did hit well in 2 seasons with the Sox over 128 at bats. Not the biggest sample size ever, but the guy showed a decent stick. But Davis is owed $1 million and was a 2nd round draft pick... so he'll stay. I'd like to see the Nationals pick up Burke to back up Schneider.

My thought is about 1 win over the Davis/Burke/Olivo production from last year. If you are talking about over Davis/Burke's likely 2005 production, my guess is more like 2 wins.

I voted offensive line. After watching football for 25 years, I have really come to the conclusions that all the truly great teams have great offensive lines. The '85 Bears, with Covert (one of the best 10 T of all time), Hilgenberg (one of the best 10 C of all time), Bortz (All Pro in later years), Thayer, and Van Horne (weakest of 5, but a #11 overall draft pick) were one of the best offensive lines ever. Offensive lines make your QB better by giving him more time to throw (example - Manning this year, Erik Kramer in 1995 - sacked only 12 times and had the best season for a Bear QB ever). Offensive lines make decent RB great. Example - any running back out of Denver the last 8-10 years. Reuben Draughns...are you kidding me? Olandis Gary? Clinton Portis ! Portis average 5.5 yards per carry last year with Denver. Portis never averaged 5.5. yards per carry in a SINGLE GAME this year. Offensive lines make defenses better. A great running game keeps defenses off the field and fresher...makes a huge difference in the second half. If I were running a team, not only would I draft O-Line with my top picks all the time, I would let the world know that my team values O-Line, make the O-Line heroes in the city, and basically make all the FA O-Line guys want to come to play in that town. I'd have the best 5 out there starting, and at least 3 guys who would start on any other team shuttling in and out to keep the starting 5 fresh. Running backs are a dime a dozen - get a great O-line and you're getting holes big enough for any good college back to run through. Quarterbacks have to be only intelligent enough to make smart passes...and receivers have to catch the balls thrown to them. I might spend a high draft pick on a really tall receiver (tower over DB's) with great speed and hands a la Randy Moss if he came along...but everything else, O-line. If you can't tell, I feel strongly about this.

I'd be happy with just Pierzynski in addition to what the Sox already have. Just getting Timo Perez/Joe Borchard out of the black hole in RF will do wonders for the Sox in 2005. Contreras as a #5 starter (although I think El Duque would do MUCH better if he only had to get 25 starts next year) will also do wonders. Those two improvements alone are worth 5 wins. Having Frank healthy all year and getting a better year from Joe Crede are probably worth another 3-4 wins. The improved bullpen is probably worth another win. I think even with a dropoff from Konerko and Rowand, the Sox are primed for 90 wins next year. This is a good squad and should be neck and neck with Minnesota. In fact, if Pierzinski and Iguchi sign, this may be the most well-balanced team the White Sox have had since the 1994 squad (and even that team had holes in the bullpen).

Whitesox.com says that the Sox have made their "top offer" to Iguchi at $2 million per year, which plainly isn't going to get it done. If KW has some flexibility, I could definitely see an incentive-laden deal that has a $2 million base with the ability for Iguchi to rise to $4 million or more through performance and vest a $5 million option for '06 if he hits certain milestones (.350 OBP, .450 SLG, etc).

I think 2 years of El Duque as a 5th starter at $4 million per year is a very good to excellent deal for the Sox. The 5th starter slot has been an unmitigated disaster for the White Sox over the past few years, easily costing the team 4-5 wins per year (which is a ton of wins). Just having a league-average pitcher like Jon Garland in the 5 spot would probably have gotten the Sox up to 88 wins last year - not enough to win the division, but really close (what did the fifth starters go? 3-12 or so?). El Duque is an above average starter. He's only had one year with an ERA+ of below 100 - and even then it wasn't a disaster. Every other year he's been 10% or better above the league average - which is better than Jon Garland. El Duque has been injured often over the last few years. But the fifth starter spot - which opens up only 20 times or so each year - is ideal for his health. I think he'd be much more effective pitching with a lot of rest and much more likely to stay healthy throughout. If he can give the Sox 25 starts from the 5th starter spot and an ERA of 4.5, I believe that, all other things being equal, the Sox will win 5-6 more games next year. Take Koskie away from Minnesota, and give Santana and Silva less luck (Santana had a very lucky .250 BABIP), and the Sox and Twins are dead even. The BIGGEST problem for the Sox next year will be that Rowand and Konerko will regress to their past performances. Expect 30 HR from Konerko and a .280 BA from Rowand. The drop off from those two will cost the Sox a few games. Hopefull, Dye's performance - he's replacing essentially Borchard and Timo in RF - will be more than enough to offset the declines from Rowand and Konerko. The season may just turn on whether Crede comes around.

Cora is a bizarro offensive player: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=6023 The guy has a .371 OBP one season, then a .280 OBP the next, and then .364 in 2004! He takes walks, then he doesn't take walks, then he takes walks again. If the Sox could sign the 2002 or 2004 versions of Cora, great. But the 2001 and 2003 versions are horrid. I'm not sure I've seen a stat line like that (it could be due to moving him to 8th in the lineup to get a lot of free passes). It's just flat out weird.

Post of the year. I hadn't thought of it that way. Awesome. See folks, this is the power of persuasion. I don't think the Sox should sign Clement any more.

People like Jackson with "great" arms but arm troubles coming up tend to be injury plagued their whole careers...look at Jaret Wright - six years of goshawful performance after coming up with Jackson hype. I don't make that trade if I'm Beane. Jackson is a huge risk, even if he's closer to the majors.

No question, but I currently calculate that: Probability of 2005 pile of celebrating Sox players (with Hudson) Hudson going to the top of the rotation would put the Sox as favorites for the AL Central. But we'd still be a longshot to go to the World Series given the relative strength of other team's lineups in the AL. (Actually, the more I think about it, the Hudson-Buehrle-Garcia-Contreras-Garland rotation looks amazingly strong).

I'd really hate to trade Brandon McCarthy right now. I think, based on his high K rate and his high K/BB rate, that he has the potential to be a #1 starter of the Mike Mussina with the Orioles mold. Clearly not worth a year of Hudson. There's no question, however, that B-Mac's HR rate scares the bejeezus out of me. Home runs kill the value of a pitcher, and US Cellular ain't the place to pitch if people are centering the ball. Next year at AA Birmingham will be a HUGE test for McCarthy. If he can continue his K/9 and K/BB performance and keep his home run totals down, I think that we've got ourselves a #1 starter. Not worth a year of Hudson at all.

Only because you weren't as thoughtful and eloquent in your posting. Quality takes time.

Whitesox.com does not usually put fanciful stories on the web. Tonight's story suggests that it is still possible that the Big Unit might come to the South Side - if a contract extension is on the table. I'd be shocked if it happens, but it's curious that Whitesox.com would put it out there. Note that Randy was scheduled to meet with his agents at 830 p.m. PST - which is RIGHT NOW.

An extremely well written and persuasive article. Too bad the White Sox threw $14 million down the hole on this guy this year. Maggs will regret turning down the Sox's offer last offseason - no way in hell that he's going to get anything over $5-$6 million, heavy incentive contract if he can run but can't jump at the Winter Meetings. Prediction - Maggs signs with some team like the Braves in February for 1 year, $5 million with incentives to bring it up to $8-$10 million and to vest a player option for $10 million the next year.

No question. And his 4.95 ERA as a starter causes me worries, too. But as a spot/5th starter, I think he would perform well.

Well, here's how I figure he's the third best starter on the market.... You have to judge him based on his defense-independent performance (i.e., K's, BB's, HR's) - everything else is (predominantly) up to the defense. Basically, the formula I have for judging a pitcher's worth is (.294 * K - .327 BB - 1.393 HR) / IP * 9. This is a kind of pitcher runs-saved-per 9 innings metric. I explain it here (third or fourth posting down - see OneStat, Take Two) in the Washington Nationals blog I write with two buddies. For Alvarez, I get a value of 0.24 runs saved per 9 innings, meaning that his pitcher-controlled performances actually save his team .24 runs off of what would happen if he didn't walk anyone, didn't strikeout anyone, and didn't allow any homers. In other words, he's .24 runs better than just letting the defense field the ball in play. (My research shows that most pitcher, because they give up too many home runs, make their teams worse off than if they had just kept the ball in the park and not walked or struck out anyone). The only pitchers better in 2004 that are free agents are Pedro - 0.44 runs saved per 9 IP, and Jaret Wright - .41 runs saved per 9 IP. Alvarez is third ahead of Glendon Rusch (low HR rate is key) and Carl Pavano (again, low HR rate). Believe it or not, Clement and Benson are just about equal. Benson had a way low HR rate last year.

Sorry - somebody had a thread on this before, I couldn't find it and now I want to raise the point again. I don't think you could overuse him - you'd want to get him only 25 starts for the year and maybe 150-160 innings, but I think he'd do a great job as a 5th starter. He's still only 34, and look at this line for the last two years: 2004 4.03 ERA, 120 2/3 IP, 12 HR, 31 BB 102 K 2003 2.37 ERA, 95 IP, 5 HR (!), 23 BB, 82 K Combined: 215 IP, 17 HR, 54 BB, 184 K I'm going to lay it on the line. Putting aside Roger Clemens - who says he's retired - I think that Wilson Alvarez is the THIRD best starting pitcher on the market after Pedro Martinez and Jaret Wright (who is now off the market). His 4.03 ERA this year was somewhat inflated for reasons I can't understand (bad timing on his homers and walks, I guess). If he can be had for $3 million a year or less, he would be PERFECT for the White Sox. You can use him as an irregular starter to give him rest (as well as the other 4 in the rotation) and he should stay fresh. With two years of relative success behind him, I think he'd be able to do pretty well; strikeout pitchers like Alvarez age better than other pitchers. I'd see if he would take a 2-year, $5 million deal, and would be willing to go up to 2 years, $6 million. To free up salary room, I would jettison Timo Perez (save 700k) for a waiver wire 4th outfielder and I'd trade Carl Everett and $2 million to whoever would give me a prospect for him (save $2 million).

Yup, I've got $69.8 million with ONE 25-man roster spot to fill (probably league minimum or cheaper), which will push it over $70 million. 2005 1 Freddy Garcia $8,000 2 Mark Buerhle $5,750 3 Carlos Lee $8,000 4 Paul Konerko $8,750 5 Frank Thomas $8,000 6 Jose Contreras $6,000 7 Damaso Marte $1,250 8 Juan Uribe $1,500* 9 Willie Harris $350* 10 Aaron Rowand $1,500* 12 Joe Crede $400* 13 Ben Davis $1,000* 14 Ross Gload $350* 15 Shingo Takatsu $2,500 16 Jon Garland $3,400 17 Jon Adkins $350* 18 Timo Perez $1,000* 19 Jamie Burke $350* 20 Neil Cotts $350* 21 Jermaine Dye $4,000 22 Dustin Hermanson $2,000 23 Cliff Politte $1,000 24 Carl Everett $4,000 TOTAL $69,800 *= estimated arbitration award/Sox controlled salary. Man does $70 million go fast without the Sox adding significant upgrades. The Everett contract is a real killer - that $4 million plus the $4 million to Dye is $8 million that could have bought a top-of-the-line starter like Wright or Clement. I hope they non-tender Timo Perez and let him take his sub-.300 OBP elsewhere. They could save $700k by plucking a 4th OF from some other team's organization. Here's the other bad news - $34 million is committed for next year already, too, on just 6 players (Freddy, Buerhle, Contreras, Marte, Dye, Hermanson). Pile in the options on Big Frank ($10) and Carlos ($8), and you've got $52 million on 8 players.