BlackBetsy

Ummm, maybe the kid just wanted a college degree, which he figured he could get by December, even though he wanted to be eligible to sign a deal with the O's. Kudos to him, the kid's got class.

About freaking time. I say knock Hunter on his ass every game.

I voted for Birmingham. (1) Birmingham is more of a pitcher's park, and McCarthy won't be as hurt by his mistakes as much as he learns to take on and beat AA hitters. (2) McCarthy was very good but not great in his starts at Birmingham. I'd like to see him dominate like he did at W-S before moving on. (3) He'll still be young for the Southern League at the beginning of the 2005 season. (4) There's no reason that he can't be promoted directly to the Sox from Birmingham in 2005, a la Mark Buehrle in 2000 (and, with less success, Arnie Munoz in 2004). (5) I want more scouting reports from Rex. (6) Potentially awesome B'ham rotation next year - Tracey, Whisler, McCarthy, Honel and Wing.

I believe in the OBP story, too...and Pierre and Castillo are extremely valuable to Florida because they do have high OBPs. Pierre .322 AVG. .373 OBP Castillo .292 AVG .374 OBP Those OBPs are better than anyone in the Sox lineup, although Rowand is right there with them. The fundamental misconception is that "small ball" and OBP-type offensive production are mutually exclusive. In reality, there are two questions: How do you get on base? What do you do when you get there? Both questions are different, but #1 is far more important than #2. Vince Coleman was terrific - maybe the best in history - at moving once he was on the bases. But he couldn't steal first base and was thus of questionable value as a player and lead off hitter. [For example, in 1986 he stole 107 bases....but got on base only 199 times with his .301 OBP, so he wound up only scoring 94 runs. Had he a .350 OBP, he would have gotten on base 231 times, saving the Cardinals 32 outs. In 1987, he had about the same number of stolen bases (109), but had an OBP of .363, got on base 230 times and wound up scoring 121 runs - 27 more runs than the year before. He even got caught stealing 8 more times in 1987, but was far more valuable] If you get on base more often, you can play more small ball, which means you score more runs. All other things being equal, teams that get on base more are better teams.

I still have not seen anything reported that indicates that the Sox will increase payroll as a result of the TV Deal.

I'm with you, qwerty. I think Koskie would be a great addition - especially since he is coming off a down year. He adds a few things: (1) OBP from a left-handed hitter (2) 20+ HR power from a left-handed hitter (3) Production from the 3B hole. (4) He's a gamer. I think Koskie would have some good seasons in US Cellular. He's hit well there in his career (of course, that's off of Sox pitching). Let's face it, the Cell is a bandbox and Koskie would thrive here. And, I'm always in favor of subtracting from the Twins. They would replace Koskie with Cuddyer, who hasn't ever shown that he can produce like he did in AAA. Give me Radke and Koskie and we'll be 8 games better in the standings while the Twinkies fall 8 games worse. And they probably can be had for a total of $15 million. I think that's doable (especially if they can ship off Crede/Everett).

I agree. If we signed Lowe for a good price ($4-$5 million), he fits in nicely on the staff as a #3 guy. Essentially, next season the Sox would have 1 #2 guy (Garcia), 3 #3 guys (Buehrle, Lowe, Contreras) and 1 #4 guy (Garland), which puts them way ahead of most other teams in the league. However, I wouldn't spend more than $5 million on Lowe. And that might not be possible. I still think Radke should be our #1 target. And if we can't get him, we should run up the price for the Twins so they can't re-sign Koskie or have to trade off someone early. We shouldn't be out to beat the Twins. We should be out to destroy the Twins. Destroy them in such a way that they'll plead for contraction.

I don't know if they are going to pan out, but I do know that paying $6-$8 million for Soriano when you have Uribe doesn't make much sense. I don't think Uribe is great, I just don't think that Soriano is worth $4-$6 million more than him. That money could be spent elsewhere. Remember, we are talking about (in this thread) a proposed Garland/Soriano deal. Making this deal means the Sox now have two holes in their rotation - the 4 and 5 spots. Not making this deal means that if the Sox sign someone like Radke (I doubt it, but I pray), or another 1/2/3 starter, Garland is relegated to the #5 hole and Contreras goes to the #4 hole. A Contreras/Garland 4/5 combo would be one of the two or three best 4/5 combos in the AL. Moreover, taking pressure off Garland in the #5 hole probably makes him a better pitcher. Just a hunch. I think the $4-$6 million saved from Soriano could buy about 1/2 of a #2/#3 starter. The only question is whether the Sox would be willing to spend the other half to get a proven top of the rotation guy. Kenny Williams has said the Sox are interested in doing that. Heck, adding a #2/#3 guy to this team as it is currently constituted probably is enough to pull the Sox even with the Twins. But trading Garland for Soriano probably sets them back.

Living in DC, I can tell you that it's Riley going for the Birds. Bedard isn't healthy right now.

Isn't today McCarthy's turn in the rotation?

I'll believe the Sox can win the division when I'm sitting at Game 1 of the playoffs with a beer in my hand....not before. It's a pipe dream to think that this team with this talent and a determined unwillingness to get on base or play defense will catch up with the Twins, who not only have a 7.5 game lead, but put better talent on the field every day than the White Sox.

Dellucci goes yard....oh goodness, Ozzie, don't take Grilli out after 100 pitches...after all, he is your most effective pitcher

So Grilli has thrown 100 pitches through 5 innings. . . . do you have him come out for the 6th? I may let him face Barajas, but then I bring in Cotts to face Dellucci and Young.

There are very few Aces by most standards. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Johan Santana, Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, ... it could easily be argued that there are only 10 or so #1 Pitchers in the major leagues. There is no shame in saying that Buehrle is a #2 or that McCarthy projects as a #2. I'm not sure that anyone can project someone as a #1 starter. The last guy the Sox had who was projected as a #1 was Rauch...a torn labrum later, he looks like a #4 guy.

Agreed. If Garland gets $4.0 million there is something wrong with the system. l expect him to get more like $2.8-$3.0 million, which is still a raise from the $2.3 million he is making this year. But in any case, I don't see paying $6- $8 million for Soriano's .279/.320/.475 line. I know the White Sox can get that kind of production for much less.

Ugh. It's not .280-24-81. It's .279/.322/.472. Compare that to Juan Uribe at .271/.318/.491. Roughly speaking, Juan Uribe has hit as well as Alfonso Soriano has. Don't let the 81 RBI fool you - If Soriano had the same number of at-bats as Uribe (428), he'd have 62 RBI...almost exactly the same as Uribe. So why is he worth soaking up $6-8 million per year that can be spent on pitching when we already have him on our team? I'm also convinced that Uribe is going to get BETTER rather than worse over the next few years: Walk rate: 2001 8 BB 273 AB - .029 BB/AB 2002 34 BB 566 AB - .060 BB/AB 2003 17 BB 316 AB - .054 BB/AB 2004 29 BB 428 AB - .067 BB/AB He's getting a better eye as the years improve. If he can hit .275 with a .335 OBP, he'll be a relatively valuable player. I like Juan, and especially if he costs $1 million/year like he should for the next couple of years.

Also makes you think twice about McCarthy, who (1) has a higher strikeout rate; (2) lower walk rate - by about half; and (3) allows fewer hits. And remember, many people were thinking of Kris Honel as a top-of-the-rotation starter (a #2 or #1 potentially).

Ok, but there are some serious raises coming next year, too, and they took on some serious salary this season. By my calculation, the Sox already will have $62.8 million committed to 21 players next year. ($32.75MM just to Thomas, Lee, Konerko and Garcia - $49 MM if you add in Buehrle, Contreras, and Everett) So even though $20 million is coming "off the books", the Sox are starting the season only about $2 million lower than 2004, the way I figure it. And as much as people talking about the new Comcast network allowing the Sox to raise payroll by $20 million, I still haven't seen this reported publicly. If the Sox go to a $70 million payroll in the offseason, I'll be surprised.

The best pitcher's park in the Southern League...and one of the 10 toughest places to hit in AA/AAA ball (along with Edmonton, San Antonio, Bowie, Trenton, Norfolk, Trenton, Omaha, Portland, New Orleans...

I was at the game with about 400-500 NIU faithful. We made a lot of noise near the end zone on the NIU sideline...was hoping that it maybe got picked up on the broadcasts. The fumble recovery in the 4th quarter was about as exciting a thing as I've ever seen. Maryland crowd was dead silent and we were screaming our lungs out. There was a lot of anger at the end of the game with the refs decision that Cieslak was out of bounds and to not whistle the ball into play. Still, it would have been nice had Horvath simply spiked the ball and given Northern a chance at a 53 yarder or at least a set-up play to the end zone. If the Huskies had another 30 seconds, I have no doubt that they would have won this game. I have to say, Horvath looked awful in the first half, but great in the second half. He made some great throws and really looked in command on the field. The Huskies moved the ball with ease under his direction in the second half. The Huskies are in good hands with Horvath. That said, after looking terrific in the first half, the Huskie defense, which I thought would excel this year, couldn't stop a very inexperienced Maryland offense. Granted, they spent a lot of time on the field, but played poorly. The d-backs looked pretty weak with the exception of Hickenbottom. The Huskies will really miss Randee Drew (I can't believe he didn't catch on with the 49'ers).

Except that the reason he is performing poorly this year (in a hitter's park, for crying out loud) is that he was exposed last year in the playoffs as someone you could get out consistently by throwing the ball outside. He hasn't adjusted this year and seems pretty rockheaded. I think we've already seens the best from A. Soriano. As for Crawford and his .329 OBP....ugh. The difference between a guy with a .370 OBP and a .329 OBP is pretty big, even if the guy with the .370 OBP doesn't steal any bases. Crawford has been caught stealing 15 times, wiping out the benefits of 30 of his stolen bases (every time you get caught stealing, you add an out and take away a base). So his 50 out of 65 success rate only adds 20 bases to Tampa Bay over the course of a year. A guy who gets on base at a .370 clip in the leadoff hole will get on base roughly 25-30 times more than Crawford over the course of a year...easily reversing any benefit caused by Crawford's stolen base edge. And, Crawford plays left field, a position where you can afford to have a guy like Carlos Lee who has a .300/.365/.500 line...clearly more valuable than Crawford. A lineup of 9 Crawfords scores 5.6 runs per game. A lineup of Carlos Lees scores 6.9 runs per game. That's a big difference in run production.

Ummmmm.....Baseball Prospectus begs to differ.... plays as the most hitter friendly park in the Carolina league.. . .it roughly plays the same offensively as US Cellular. The Ballpark Fan Guide says it's 325 down the line and 400 to straightaway center. It's a hitters park.

Believe it or not, Soriano's performance this year has been roughly akin to that of Uribe...about the same BA/OBP/SLG. He wouldn't make the team better. I don't see giving up pitching for him. Now, Aubrey Huff is a different story if he really still can play third base. He gets on base and hits for power. He'd be a huge upgrade over Crede. Please don't get me started on Crawford and his inability to steal first base....

I'm not sure Sweeney will get promoted next year. He'll be 20, and I could see another year in the Carolina League in W-S's bandbox to gain some confidence. I see him starting out in W-S, and if he does well, getting promoted to B'ham mid-season. Remember, Sweeney has hit with very little power this year, but it will come. There's no rush with him. I see less of a reason to hold Fields back. But I too would not be surprised to see him start in W-S and move up to B'ham mid-season. If B'ham starts with Sweeney (RF), Rogowski (LF), Fields (3B), McCarthy (SP), Tracey (SP), Honel (SP), Wing (SP), Gonzalez (SS) . . . that will be one of the better prospect-laden teams in the last few years for the White Sox. I also wouldn't be surprised if Ricks starts in W-S and moves up quickly to B'ham. Just a gut feeling.

Keep me off of it, and I'll see if I can shoot out the tires or put sugar in the gas tank. Vizquel is having a great year for a shortstop with his .310/.365/.413 line...no question. But these are his prior 4 years to 2004: 2000- .287/.377/.375 (solid) 2001- .255/.323/.334 (bad) 2002- .275/.341/.418 (solid) 2003- .244/.321/.336 (bad - and injured) Vizquel will be 38 next year- and you shouldn't rely on him being as good as this year. In fact, he's likely to hit more like 2001/2003 than he will hit like 2002/2004. I think he'll likely to be a hole in the lineup. His current contract is $6.5 million/year. He may want something like $3-$4 million per year for 2 years. He's not worth it. The Sox would be better off either spending $8-$10 million on a star shortstop in his prime, or just going with Uribe or keeping Valentin at $2-$3 million per year. More important is finding a shortstop in the Sox system - and I don't know if there is one in the system now.