bmags

Leftwich now too. Also enjoyed this. Basically no rhyme or reason to hiring, but as I said the college coaches bias is overblown. All coaches are terrible, we just remember college coaches more because they are novel and usually dominated their previous level: https://github.com/mnhardy-da/NFL-Head-Coach-Study/blob/main/2022 NFL Head Coaching Study v2.ipynb

More good stuff here re: GMs to keep in mind:

I will say re: Harbaugh I don't know if it's as much wanting absolute say in personnel like Gruden or making sure he doesn't get stabbed in the back like he was with Baalke.

The real, short answer is I liked this profile a lot, and before he was with the Browns he was coming through ops and analytics depts in San Francisco. https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/new-vp-of-football-ops-kwesi-adofo-mensah-knows-what-it-takes-to-win-ready-to-wo I also read this article, from a writer I often don't like because I think he's a front runner, but it was very persuasive https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/1/6/22869889/nfl-coaching-carousel-avoid-mistakes So I may be drawn more to non-scout hires. In Baseball, virtually every org now is pretty damn smart, and the GMs they hire vary in background from scouting to analytics, but a lot of Asst GMs have good experience running large organizations. In Basketball, they don't just hire good scouts to GMs but now people with good player relationships, or player development, cap management, etc. In football for GMs you target good scout dept leads from the teams that drafted well and hope to recreate that. For coaches you hire good offensive or defensive coordinators and hope they can recreate that in a higher role. That's it, and it seems a complete crapshoot. The article points out some of the top and longest lasting GMs now weren't scouts but came from cap management side and operations - Howie Roseman, Mickey Loomis, and Brandon Beane. The GM role means handling a large organization, needing to smartly handle the cap, and crucially unlike baseball where your talent pipelines are largely set each year (or basketball where it's basically one pick a year), in football that can change drastically based on decisions of the GM. So you can have someone who is a good scout, find great players, but not balance out what it takes to acquire those players vs the cap and depth needed. Hi Ryan Pace. And unless you are Ozzie Newsome, draft success ebbs and flows, and if the first few years miss, good luck. In short, I like his profile.

From the guy I called having a temper tantrum earlier

Happy about this

I read Bias in your post as being negative, not positive but yea I agree it helps. Would love Rick Smith. Would also really like Trace Armstrong

I don’t know man. If you aren’t a good coordinator I feel like you aren’t at bare minimum a good teacher and leader. And wow, he wasn’t really a good coordinator anywhere before Bills

Because they don’t want to appear to be leading the choices?

So I don't think Leslie Frazier is going to be the coach. He definitely had a hand in developing that talent, but I also just feel like it's a situation where buffalo was loaded, plus McDermott was a phenomenal DC himself. His Minnesota defense was bad, then his Tampa defense was bad.

Sorry for implying it was a temper tantrum, I can see from your post it is not a temper tantrum.

I am very excited about this class. I think this is going to be special.

He could have said that, but the reality of it isn't that different from what you described so I guess I don't care. Steve Cohen totally nailed his press conference, flattered all the fans who knew exactly what they wanted to hear. But then steve cohen had to hire a bunch of people and voila.

Is George McCaskey himself hiring a GM just astronomically better than including Ted Phillips? It's the same, it may be marginally improved with ted. It doesn't matter. The inclusion of Polian, etc is about as good as it can get with the ownership they have. They aren't going to fire themselves. And they would still have to hire a President, I really don't understand the difference. They can still get this right because they are going to pay tens of millions of dollars of someone with a highly sought after job opening to a whittled down group of candidates. And they can still get it wrong because this shit goes wrong every year anyway to lots of organizations. Who knew the giants would become such a shit show with a much more successful family ownership.

Yeah, not sure I'd pair a young QB with him, but there is a chance Tua was the problem. I'd be surprised though.

Everyone knows the deal though. Flores went to Miami and knew he had a long runway with their tanking. Gets them two winning seasons in first 3 years and is fired. Dan Campbell has a long runway with their rebuilding. But i'm sure by end of year 3 he'll feel heat if they aren't winning. Good process without good results will get you fired. Hard to argue with much of Rick Spielmans individual decisions, but their defense kept fading and record never matched. He's out.

I sorta agree. He seemed like a complete jerk in Miami. But I have respect for people just putting their heads down and working, and he did that in New Orleans for sure. Same reason I'm open to McDaniels. I laughed at his failure over and over, but the fact that he just sorta kept his head down for a decade and hasn't jumped at the first opportunity gets points with me. Ireland certainly has an eye for talent. I still can't get over that Kevin Clark piece though, was pretty damn persuasive.

Good example of the temper tantrum of twitter right now. Yes I'm sure they'd all be quite content if George McCaskey said they will judge the success of the next GM not based on Wins and Losses - they are so random in the NFL. Instead he will judge their process. Woulda gone over great!

I find the response to this press conference kind of obnoxious. The same people who 12 hours ago were saying how stupid the bears were because they are keeping Pace and are hopeless just seamlessly transition into how hopeless everything is because Ted Phillips is drawing up a contract and Bill Polian is consulted. It does suck that the Bears are the Bears but at some point they need someone to hire someone and even if they hire a President of Football, George McCaskey still needs to hire them.

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning.

not necessarily. Especially if they hire Jeff Ireland.

The media oogling over Ballard is annoying, but his discipline would have been far, far superior to post Emery Bears. Had we just fired Ballard, I'm sure our draft capital and salary cap would be in a different place. While hilarious they lost to the Jags, and Wentz being terrible, they've had a difficult decision with QB. He builds the team rapidly for Luck, then luck retires right before the season. While the Bears get Foles or Dalton, they were able to get Philip Rivers. They should have last year probably targeted Mac Jones, but with a fully formed team already, I get why they chose this route. Getting Yo-Yo'd by luck for years led to his lack of QB, we'll see what they do now.

Maybe not, but the case for it being possible is it being unknown what contract he's under, they are in transition, and have a good succession plan in Dennis Allen. There is enough respect they may work it out if there is desire. They cannot go through this without knowing.

While he may keep his job next few days, I think we'll see him gone with the GM search.

I do think Bears need to understand what is possible in getting Sean Payton first and foremost, including letting him choose GM.