Balta1701

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 07:22 PM) Assume Samardzija won't sign for a discount. Then it doesn't matter whether he's going to sign an extension before you trade for him. You trade Player X with no extension for him, you sign him for whatever he's worth. or... He signs for whatever he's worth, and you trade Player Y. Why would the player change? The only way you pay more (in talent) for an extension now is if you think his value is likely to increase dramatically between now and the end of next season. I don't see why it would. literally no one has said Samardzija is willing to sign for a discount. That includes even the Chicago Cubs who traded him in part because he wouldn't sign for a discount.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 07:20 PM) Question is: Does he really fit into the future plans? 3B seems like Gillespie & (hopefully) eventually Davidson and 2B seems like either Sanchez or Johnson at this point. Semien kinda seems like the odd man out. Semien seems like a really good fit for 3b and DH and some time at 2b for the next year since the guys at 3b and DH are lefties with strong platoon splits. He could easily get 400+ above-average at bats in those spots while facing lefty starters and as a pinch hitter if thats the only way he was used.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 07:12 PM) My question is: Is Semien really that valuable? Keep seeing he could be the "center piece" to a deal and I'm sitting over here wondering if I missed something or what... Also just to clarify, Montas is the guy the Sox just got for... Dunn? Isn't he projected more as a late inning guy and not a starter? Semien is the only guy who would make sense as a centerpiece of this deal and that's only because we have so much depth in the middle infield that it could make sense to get him out of the way. but overall, his profile says he could also be the best hitter out of our current middle infield prospects (Other than Anderson who is ~2 years away) which makes me really, really not want to give him up for a 1 year rental or a guy we immediately have to sign to a 5/$90 deal.

Jesus f***ing *****. Um, y'all know what that references right? Seriously? You're ok with that reference being deployed at fellow Republicans? Seriously?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 06:10 PM) Why are acquiring a pitcher, on a one year deal, in order to compete this year, and building for the future, mutually exclusive? Unless the Sox have to give up part of their core, going forward, in order to obtain their RH starter, how would they be jeopardizing their future? When Samardjiza turns down a qualifying offer, the Sox could simply take the draft pick, and use the money available then, to acquire another pitcher, if needed. I'm sorry, but I just don't see the inherent conflict between that strategy, and not jeopardizing the future. Please enlighten me, if I'm missing something. Anyone in the org who has been named, Semien or Anderson, is a guy who could help us right now and in the long term. A qualifying offer pick, a 2nd rounder, has a very poor chance of even getting to AA, or even reaching as far as Semien has gotten. On top of that, our 2nd rounder this year is probably 4-ish years away. A 2nd rounder in 2017 is someone we might think about seeing in 2020-2021. This is not a help in rebuilding. A comp pick is a tiny value compared to a AA level minor leaguer or a guy who is close to reaching the big leagues. They're years away and if they were going to be present in the near future they'd be a first rounder. None of this makes a case to me about this being anything other than a huge rebuilding setback and a very poor idea. "We can spend the money next year" is accurate but it's just silly - why give up a guy who could contribute to our roster for 6 years for a sandwich pick and 1 year of a #3 pitcher if you're not 100% ready to compete this year? If we'd spent $70 million on Victor Martinez and $100 million on Hanley Ramirez to fill our corner OF spot, fine, Samardija would fit with that. That's "all in, we're winning this year". Instead, giving up guys we have long term control over for a sandwich pick, that's backwards.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 06:03 PM) http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/28/us/benja....html?hpt=hp_t2 NFL player's response draws praise....maybe not from Keith law though Keith law is not mentioned in the article and frankly that's an unnecessary BS cheap shot.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 05:31 PM) Agreed. I am withholding judgement until I hear the return. If it's Semien, Beck, Ravelo, etc. Wonderful. If it's Montas/Anderson/Danish…not so pumped. Rangel Ravelo totally seems like a classic Billy Beane success story.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 05:28 PM) If the Sox are willimg to send Anderson for Samardzjia, they probabky could have worked something out for Donaldson. Donaldson and a free agent pitcher seems like a nicer upgrade than possibly one year of the former Cubbie. F*** yes. Anderson is a better player player than anyone in the deal for Donaldson. I'd open up Anderson for that.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 05:24 PM) I feel like you might be undervaluing Shark's value a bit. Two mid level prospects aren't going to get it done and neither will just Alexei, IMO. A starting pitcher, almost no matter how good he is, with 1 year remaining on his contract shouldn't get much more than a couple of mid level, solid but not spectacular prospects. Maybe like Kershaw a year from FA fine, but the guy needs to be on his way to the hall of fame to be worth a top 20+ guy.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 03:57 PM) Not sure if posted @pgammo: With the White Red, Red Sox, Rangers, others talking Samadzija, AL GM says "there is no way he will sign and not go to free agency." QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 04:02 PM) I wish I could take Gammons more seriously, but everyone knows he is a Red Sox schill. If that's true though, good luck to the A's on getting anything of consequence for him. QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 04:09 PM) And seriously, the White Red? f***ing laziness from Gammons. East coast indifference. You guys may not want to hear it, but that's 100% the exact thing that was said over and over and over again about Samardzija when he was with the Cubs. That's supposedly why hew as traded. You have to spend enough money on him to get him out of that mode. In other words, you're talking about a 9 figure deal to get him to give that up, because that's close to what he'll get as a free agent.

QUOTE (South Sider @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) That makes a lot of sense. The only thing I can think of is that maybe the Sox feel Shark has a better chance of "lasting" through a 4-5 year contract as opposed to Shields. There's also the value of giving the Royals a 2nd round pick should the Sox sign Shields, which I imagine they aren't too keen on doing either. A prospect who has already reached AA (Anderson) and should be in most MLB top 50 lists or a prospect who has already gotten to the big leagues (Semien) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a 2nd round pick. I could probably add more >>> and still be accurate.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 03:23 PM) I'm not sure I call that a "fair deal". That's ace type money, and let's be honest... He's not an ace. $20M a year is a bit steep, IMO. I'd guess something like 5 years/85 MAYBE 90 or so should do it. $20 mil a year is pretty close to the going rate for a #2-#3 starter on the FA market these days, which is why this makes so little sense. That's the kind of money it'll take to extend the guy and I don't know why the White Sox are better off trading a top flight player for the right to do that when they could just go out and buy a free agent or two if they were willing to blow that kind of money on a pitcher. If we're going to spend >$80 million on a pitcher, f*** it, hold onto Anderson and Semien and go sign Shields.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 03:06 PM) Yeah, we're on the same page here with the problem being there really is no precedent. I can't really think of any windows to sign in a trade from recent history. Considering how the Sox operate it is much more of a possibility than with other teams. I think teams have gotten windows to negotiate extensions with players, but I can't remember a case where the players going back have depended on the completion of an extension. If they can't get the extension done the trade doesn't happen.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 02:54 PM) No reason the two teams couldn't agree on a PTBNL based on an extention or not. Is that even allowed? I've literally never heard of a team being able to do that. I can see why the union wouldn't like that - they wouldn't want a players salary offer to be affected by what a team would get as a PTBNL in the trade.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 02:22 PM) It's what the offseason is all about. Ricky has no reputation of having things leak so far. Only one that was predictable by name beforehand that I can think of is Abreu. Other people made sense but we didn't see "White Sox talking to Boston/Detroit" even before the Peavy deal happened, we just knew it made sense. We didn't see "White Sox talking to Duke/LaRoche", we just saw it happen.

It's fun to watch threads explode from random tweets from people that will eventually wind up meaning nothing.

Keith Law can hate the White Sox's system all he wants now. Props to him for this one.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 11:10 AM) Semien is at least an adequate defender around the infield and has the best offensive chops of any of our minor league infielders. The first rule of baseball is not to freak out over small MLB samples. I also have no clue where you get the idea that he's had BABIP-fueled MiLB stats. He's generally had fairly low BABIP numbers. He's a middle infielder with solid defensive skills, a great batting eye, production at high levels, and back-to-back 20 HR seasons between MiLB and MLB. That's a big deal. Marcus was so far not really an adequate defender in the time we've seen him. He could potentially get there, particularly at 2b, but his footwork overall is poor and he doesn't have good overall skills to make up for that yet. He's still potentially a solid player but let's not oversell him. His defense needs work and he looks like a guy we'd despise if he was put at shortstop.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 10:32 AM) They aren't exactly "wild cards". The one wild card will likely be a top 100 prospect in the next rundowns. The other 2 pitchers are major league ready and both pitched in the majors last year. (one was taught a cutter recently; I guess coop doesn't have that patented). I believe they are of the low-upside type, but the As get a lot of mileage out of these pitchers with 4/5 starter arms. And the As got a major league starting 3B. and as Dick pointed out, Donaldson himself trends over the last 3 years as bad-great-good. Where does he go next? Even if you have a ton of confidence in your teams ability to scout the right guys, I've got to figure you could do better than "a top 100 prospect in the majors and a couple of low upside type arms" if you're swapping Donaldson for Lawrie. You said Donaldson's year last year was "good", but it still was a >6 fWAR season coming right after a 7 fWAR season. Josh Donaldson's "good" year would have made him the most valuable player on the White Sox. Brett Lawrie has put up The A's give up a year of control and downgrade from a >6 fWAR player to a 2-2.5 fWAR player with injury worries in exchange for 1 top 100 prospect and a couple "low-upside type" arms? That's like Beck, Bassitt, Gillaspie, and maybe someone like Webb or something like that from the White Sox. A guy who fills the 3b spot, doesn't provide a lot of wins, and a couple of decent but not great arms with big league experience. Maybe Danish has to slot into one of those pitchers spots instead since Gillaspie is a step down from Lawrie even counting the injuries, but you can't tell me you wouldn't do a deal along those lines. I'd jump at that.

Yes. It clears out those 2 guaranteed years. The Bears would 100% have to draft a first round QB this year, but clearing out the cap space and getting a wild card at the QB slot would be a solid risk.

Yes, I absolutely have zero problem having 2/$20 tied up in a contract for a "aging" shortstop who is going into his age 33-34 seasons and has constantly outproduced his contract during every year of the deal. "We could all debate who would be the SS this season" - think about how silly that is. You open up a hole you have no one to fill by trading for a RHP who fills a need this season but who is then either gone as a FA or commanding a 9 figure contract the White Sox are very unlikely to give out. That is exactly backwards. Samardzija earned $5.3 million last year in his 2nd arb year. He vastly outperformed that deal and will probably command $8-$10 million in arbitration this year. You say that the difference between Samardzija's money and Alexei's would be enough to land a solid hitting OF, what solid hitting OF would be available for $1-$2 million at most? This tells me you didn't really look at the numbers either. None of that works or makes sense. It barely saves the Sox money, it opens up a gaping hole at the most important defensive position on the diamond, and it costs us a year of control for a guy.

All of that stuff could be quite true but go into some details on the argument. They're both first year arb guys next year. Lawrie will be slightly cheaper...because he's done far less. If he starts performing like Donaldson, his salary would catch up in the 2nd year. And if Lawrie starts performing well enough that you'd want to keep him for several years...the A's have given up a year of team control. So the As give up a year of team control on a near MVP caliber guy 4 years away from FA and immediately get worse to bring in a couple "wild cards" as you guys describe them. For a team always financially strapped, giving up a year of team control seems silly. Even if Donaldson was trending down, man I have to think I'd be thrilled if the White Sox gave up a comparable package.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 07:47 AM) I think the deal was done based on the fact Donaldson is going to become arbitration eligible in 2015 and is going to get very expensive very quick. Lawrie is in the same area that he is arbitration eligible too in 2015 but will not likely cost as much since he hasn't produced as well or stayed healthy. Just think about this argument though. "We're giving up a year of team control and saving money by trading our better players for worse players". Not exactly a strong tactic there.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 29, 2014 -> 09:38 AM) How not? I think he's probably right on that...guys who don't break in immediately and tear up the league tend to see their trade value decrease somewhat. Now he's got to prove he can do it in the big leagues, until then he's a guy you'd look at as a "buy low" candidate.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 28, 2014 -> 08:12 PM) You're right - it's not going to happen and is stupid... Putting money aside thou, what would you rather have... 1.) Jose Quintana Or 2.) Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, and Jon Lester Literally, putting money aside is cheating in this one. Obviously more people would rather have the latter on players alone, but come on, it's 3 players and you're saying "putting money aside". One of those will cost $250 million over the next 7-8 years, one will cost $40 mil. Let's try making the money approximately even. Who would you rather have 1. Quintana + Scherzer or 2 Upton, Gattis, Lester.