Balta1701

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 05:54 PM) Ok, but is this any better? Maybe, but it's moved into a harder to quantify realm because "Scared of your parent" is a different response from actual physical contact. "I was spanked for x" is an on-off, yes/no answer that you can quantify in a study. "My dad punished me and I had a fear-based response" is a very different behavior.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 05:53 PM) Fair enough, but this gives us an opportunity to discuss the issue of less-extreme forms of corporal punishment (i.e., spanking or other physical contact), which is something I'm actually interested in reading/learning about. However, everyone seems to just revert back to the extreme forms of punishment, which is a waste of time, considering not one person has posted justifying such methods. Every link I posted regarded spanking as a standard form of punishment and found it was strongly correlated with more violent, criminal, antisocial behavior late in life. I started off with the correlation between more violent forms which I thought you were defending, and then backed up to the "corporal punishment in general" level. Spanking in general, physical punishment in general, produces kids who grow up to be more violent, based on decades of research. When I went to five you said "please post 100 on the results of the access of poor to smartphones". You then followed it with asking about less-extreme forms of corporal punishment, clearly noting that you completely missed every single link I gave you on that subject. The historical parenting setup on this produces kids who are more likely to commit violent crimes, have more issues later in life, be more violent. Spanking or other physical contact is not that different from full on physical abuse in the end result, in either case it really does bad things to the outcome of the child.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 06:39 PM) For sure on all that. Part of it too is that he became sooo good before he tanked out. The Professor was such an aptly chosen nickname because he was putting on an absolute clinic on how to hit what the pitcher gives a hitter...and then launching mistakes. That small window of greatness was an exciting time. Was he better than Thomas during that window? I dunno. Better than Frank's best? No. Better than end of career Thomas? Sure. But Frank's best stands against anyone in MLB history.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 05:33 PM) I don't get your point. Is Wilkins going to be a MLB contributor in your opinion? I said they should give trade Dunn/give Wilkins a chance and laughed at the people saying he should be the DH next year. I still feel the same way on both topics. If the White Sox are looking to spend $50 million this offseason, do everything they can to win a playoff spot, be "all -in" again, and be saddled with 3-4 more losing seasons afterwards if things don't work out, then Wilkins is certainly not an option at all. If the White Sox are looking to fill some gaps and see what they have in guys next year, then thinking of Andy Wilkins as a guy who can play some 1b and be a platoon DH, filling a roster spot backing up Abreu and getting 300-400 PA against RH starters per year as well as some PH spots and maybe think they have a shot at getting an ~.800 ish OPS out of him? With time I think that's plausible and that's a useful piece in the modern day MLB if he could get to that level. He's been a slow starter at least at the last 2 levels he's visited so I don't know why people are surprised he's struggling now, the question is where this franchise is going next year. I think he can contribute to a winning ball club in the post steroid MLB, but like any prospect I can't be more than 50% certain of that, and there's a "He has to be used right" qualifier. If we're going to keep a similar payroll to this year's team, DH seems like a silly spot to blow $10 million+ again, especially if the target is going to be 37 years old. Given the choice between Wilkins there part time with a platoon RH hitter found somewhere else and signing Martinez for like 3/$45, I'll take Wilkins easy and see what the heck happens. Then again, I haven't dealt with him, he could be impossible to coach or work with. For this team to win without pushing the payroll back to $120 million we need as many guys from the minors at minimal salaries to contribute a little bit as we can find, and I'm hoping in the right role, Wilkins could contribute a little. I'm not expecting Abreu out of him, I'm hoping that he could give an .800 OPS as a platoon DH and that would be a useful contributor in the modern AL.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 04:20 PM) Ok, so it's fair for you to say the fact that we spank children less results in a decrease in violence, but if I say obesity and lack of discipline in the same sentence, Balta insists I am saying one causes the other and insisting I link to 20 studies within five minutes. Fair enough. The reason I didn't challenge this claim is that the literature actually strongly supports it (plus I had a seminar to go to). Study after study finds the same thing. Press report 1 Press release summarizing multiple studies Press report 2 of different study, same result Press report 3, international study, same result Press report 4, different study, same result If I need to get to 20 I can. This effect has been shown again and again at this point, physical discipline in children leads to children who are more likely to deploy violence on their own.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 03:36 PM) I'm not stating those things are caused directly by a lack of discipline. I'm saying those things coupled with a lack of discipline are problematic. You might have noticed I mentioned what I believe might be causes after that post, and those included our food supply and rapid advances in technology. So you're saying they're contributors. That's what I'm saying the evidence for is lacking, both from your posts and from my reading of the available/testable data. If "a lack of discipline" was a key contributor, then there are testable predictions made that aren't holding up from what I've presented. If you can give a stronger correlation I'm happy to see it, but it has to be better than the level of "the kids are too distracted and things are getting worse" when the evidence argues against that.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) I'm not saying a decline in discipline results in obesity. I'm only working with what you give me. The other ones, "degree of respect" are harder to calculate, and that makes it much easier to claim that it is increasing because there is little data to support those points. IT's also interesting to note that in general, the students in US Schools have been performing better over the past decade even if we hear mostly about the opposite, which is in the opposite direction as well and might be something that can be quantified.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 02:41 PM) You're missing the point entirely. The problem with your point is that the connection you made is anecdotal, looking at a correlation between "increasing bad things" and suggesting maybe they're related to decreases in this type of behavior. However, this leaves me the ability to argue against it by demonstrating where this correlation breaks down, and it does if you go to either state level numbers or racial numbers (racial numbers appear to dominate, btw). For example, the states with the most lenient discipline policies, like for example Texas, also are the states with the highest obesity rates, so if obesity increases and the decline of physical punishment are correlated, we'd expect the opposite. Furthermore, the rate of reported (not convicted as far as I can tell) abuse is far higher amongst the african american community than other races and the rate of obesity is similarly highest amongst that group.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) I can't even tell if Wilkins has any talent or not at this point. He just looks lost, and with absolutely no confidence at this point. I don't know the kid from Adam, but every time they show his reaction to a pitch or out, he looks like a guy who doesn't think he belongs in the major leagues at this time. I'd like to see Andy playing as much as possible to see if that really is who is he as a hitter, or if he just needs a shot of confidence. Let Konerko play on his "days", and make sure Wilkins is in against as many RHP as possible. You mean guys aren't always defined for their entire careers by how they look during their first 2.5 weeks in the bigs? Not possible, I've read our game threads. Plus whoever that pitcher was last night was terrible.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) What do you do if somebody's cell phone is not on vibrate and rings? That's just rude behavior whether the student is paying for education or not. If I was a teacher I wouldn't be able to stop myself from saying how rude that student was at that moment. Or is that cause for teacher suspension by the administration? It hasn't happened yet and there's no such thing as a suspension at this level. With the first one I'd probably make a joke. If it started repeating then I'd clearly ask people to stop bringing cell phones in and try to identify the person with the problem (My syllabus says that the technology policy is be courteous and I won't have to do anything harsher).

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:22 PM) If Avi turns in a 5 WAR season a lot of problems are going to be solved. A lot hinges on him staying healthy and developing into the guy that is +5 runs on the bases, hits 290/345/480, and plays a run neutral RF. That's not quite 5 WAR, more like 3-4, but I think he can get there next season. It's really great that he got to get ~110 PA in at the end of this season. He's working through his post-injury adjustments now instead of next April. Just to note, Avi's been a -0.5 run guy on the bases this year after a + 0.2 base guy last year, and he's on pace to be a -10 guy in RF this year after a -11 guy last year. He'll have to massively improve in all 3 aspects of his game to reach that level.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:18 PM) Well, I am not the biggest fan of Adams, but it isn't like Sale has gotten us anything more this year than those guys would have, other than a worse draft pick. Added together, trading away Sale for a package, even a top flight package, does two things; it dramatically decreases our near-term performance and it dramatically increases our long-term risk. That's a hard pair to stomach, hence why I can't come up with any conceivable package that works. Every time someone has said we should trade Sale I've responded "Mike Trout's available"? I think that's a fair point. 2 years ago Bryce Harper was on that list with Trout, but he isn't there yet either and there's an injury worry.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:08 PM) I here ya, even my best OOTP teams that are predicted to win 95 games occasionally struggle to 80. In the real world a team that is projected to win 88 can easily slide down to 77 because of regression and injuries. But, it's now or never for the Sox to "go all in" with this current core. That doesn't mean they need to go trade Tim Anderson and Micah for a 2 WAR LF -- but it does mean it's time to approach the bullpen and the crater positions -- DH, 2B, LF -- as a team that plans on contending. Take note though, you named 3 lineup positions, the bullpen (at least 2 guys), and then presumably something in the starting rotation as positions that need help (in addition to possibly the bench). So we're talking about at least 5-6 key contributors away. That's not going to happen through only the FA market without a lot of "buy low" luck. We're not going to sign 5-6 free agents for full value to fill those positions, same problem as if you count fWAR. To pull that off and think that you have a team that can contend, we're going to need to have a success on the trade market or do something surprising, and we're going to need big steps forward from guys in the org already.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:03 PM) I have no idea. I don't believe there are many packages out there of "pure" prospects that I would move him for. I'd likely need at least one guy who has shown he can get it done at the mlb level. I keep coming back to that because a) that's the one I heard most, b) Oscar Tavares was key in a lot of those and he is at least looking like a guy who will need some time at the big league level before he breaks out, c) Michael Wacha might have fit your request for a guy who had already succeeded in the bigs but he's been injured this year. Matt Adams was on a number of people's lists, but we found a slightly better 1b and he's been less effective this year as a full time player than he was last year. Right now you'd look at a deal done last year where we'd fleeced the Cardinals for 4 top prospects and think we were better off in 2014-2015 with Chris Sale. That could change long term, but even in the setup you're asking for, with guys who in the high minors and have shown up in the bigs...Sale still looks like a better bet.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) I don't buy into that white flag nonsense. These fans aren't coming out anyways. Get a team on the field that wins consistently, and the fans will show up. I understand Sale's value. My argument was premised on the idea of getting something close to full value for him. If that is simply impossible, than it makes no sense to move him. What I'm saying is that I don't believe there are players in baseball that are simply immovable, and Chris should not be considered as such. What was the setup for the proposed Cardinals concept trade for all their top flight players that people thought about last year and how would that look for the white sox if it was done?

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) Looking at it that way it's not as tall an order. If you think Hahn added about 10 WAR last offseason without spending much hopefully he can repeat that this offseason (with a lot more dough to spend) and you can see the outline of a team that can reasonably expect to win around 84-90 games. It's worth noting that in the fan graphs world, we're only a couple fWAR ahead of the pace we set for all last season (with 2 weeks still to play), so the biggest difference this year has been underperforming less than last year. I agree there are paths that can get you there...but just look at your list. You're assuming everything goes right just to get close to 30 without a big FA spending spree. That alone is disconcerting and worrisome. Maybe it can happen, but then you have to seriously look at every single guy and ask what the downside risk is as well. Noesi struggles more, Abreu's foot acts up, Rodon doesn't come up until June after a slow start, Sale spends a month on the DL, and Ramirez and Flowers step back a bit, and suddenly we've spent $35 million a year and wound up with a team in the low 70s in wins again.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 01:37 PM) When I posted this, i heard on the Score that the contract was terminated, but on twitter i am reading "suspended". So, when all blows over and suspensions are served and fines levied, the contract will go back to normal i am thinking I have no idea how this one is going to end up because there's a good chance he's never convicted and I bet the local prosecution even knows it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 11:12 AM) Not for offensive players, and now ironically, the Wins stat for pitchers is meaningless. Also even the saber community isn't so confident in advanced defensive metrics. And that goes into WAR, correct? I used WAR. I post it often. But I am not naive enough to believe it is some uber accurate number. It is a nice number to put everyone on the same line, but there is a little more that goes into winning games than numbers you can put into a formula. Let's try it this way. The White Sox are currently close to 20 fWAR. This year, every single team over .500 with a shot at the playoffs has >30 fWAR. Therefore, for the White Sox to even have a shot at being competitive next year, they have to come up with 10+ fWAR next year and then have things go right. For the White Sox to nearly guarantee themselves a playoff spot, they need to be figuring out a way to come up with 20 fWAR beyond what they've produced this year. If they just tried to fill these needs paying fair market value for free agents, with nothing else happening, then we're talking about spending well over $50 million next year beyond what we currently have on payroll to make up that difference, and even then we're counting on the team to over perform rather than underperform. If you go into the numbers maybe there's a few guys who can get better. who knows what Abreu can do if he's in his 2nd year and his manager doesn't try to kill him. Getting rid of Konerko helps some. Maybe Semien and Sanchez have really good years. Garcia is back. Noesi in his 2nd season with Coop as a starter the whole time maybe can add 1-2. But then again, Alexei, Flowers, and Gillaspie might not repeat their seasons. If all we think about is adding a starter like James Shields and a couple bullpen pieces, the only way that pushes us into the playoffs is if other guys step up a whole lot to cover the rest of that gap and we actually get lucky with health/outperform a bit. I'm not using it as predictive, I'm trying to instead figure out what guys might do next year and see where that puts us relative to what we need to reach to even plausibly compete for a playoff spot, and that is a really, really big gap to fill. If you go the other way, we're in the low 20s in fWAR and we're in the low 70s in wins. If we added 10, we might expect that pulls us into the low to mid 80s, so we still need to over perform by a good amount to challenge for the wild car. If we added 20, then that pushes us into the low 90s, which is where we'd need to be to compete for the playoffs.

QUOTE (Brian @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 10:45 AM) No to Rasmus. Please. Yes to Shields and Miller. You're going to be disappointed.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 10:12 AM) Add up everyone on every teams' WAR, and look at those vs, actual standings. It will prove the number, while maybe a nice tool to determine performance, should really be named something else. That's fWAR plotted against winning percentage. It seems to me like it does a really solid job of splitting the winning teams from the losing teams, drawing a line around 30+ fWAR where you need to get to to even be competitive for a playoff spot, putting teams at the bottom in both, putting teams at the top in both, and giving you 1-2 teams where you say "something really off happened here".

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) Don't think Mayweather is a good comparison. He was convicted. McDonald was not even charged with anything. No problem whatsoever with him playing. Then again the nfl probably posseses video of him clubbing puppies. Here's the big problem with that statement...in probably a majority of domestic violence cases, something bad happened but for various reasons no charges were filed. The NFL still will have to come to a conclusion regarding a suspension in many cases where no charges were filed. For a specific example, look at the Rapelisberger case. He got suspended after a report was issued by the DA saying basically "Something bad happened or nearly happened here but I don't have enough to bring charges".

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) Colby Rasmus benched for rookies http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/569632 Sadly this actually makes me more interested in him. The worse he looks the cheaper of an option he'd be.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 10:25 PM) Great point. I was just thinking the texting might bother a teacher. I know if I was giving a presentation it would throw me off seeing all the people texting and surfing and playing video games rather than listening. Nope. Maybe if it's in the front row or they fail to put something on vibrate, but I just assume it's happening and figure to some extent its their loss, they have to endure the exam.

QUOTE (Jake @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 11:43 PM) Over-vaccinating...sheesh, that doesn't even make sense. Over-medicating? Sure. Vaccinations...nope, I can't even fathom the logic You can come up with a few testable ideas for how this could work if somehow the body's immune system actually got tired or the body got overwhelmed by having multiple things to adapt to, but these things continue to be checked. The autism hoax study, although it has killed a lot of kids already, did provoke a whole lot of double checking to see if there's any other health problems that can be correlated with vaccination rates and as of now there's literally nothing.

How well would the "swap Sale for several Cardinals since they have a lot of world beating prospects" idea people floated last year look right now?