Balta1701

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 06:24 PM) Clinton's lead down to 2%. Something must be happening. Keep an eye on the raw vote counts. Even a constant margin would go from 4 to 3 to 2% as the total number of votes went up. 2300 right now.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 06:05 PM) OK so, the gap between Clinton and Obama is now 39%-36% (was 40-35) at 30% reporting, but they are saying the Clinton camp is sounding like they are going to lose. Interesting. There must be something big for Obama that hasn't reported at all if that's the case. at 30% reporting the %age lead has shrunk, but the total vote difference keeps climbing. From 2000 up to 2800.

QUOTE(maggliopipe @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 05:45 PM) Grafton County REPRESENT. This is probably the largest of the non-'urban' parts of the state. Very liberal with Dartmouth and being right on the Vermont border. Lots of Obama supporters, so hopefully it helps. FWIW, that county has not reported at all yet.

I haven't had time to read the full study yet, but this appears new and the conclusions are interesting.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 05:09 PM) So Clinton kicked Obama's ass because she cried. LOL, the more rural areas close an hour earlier than the more urban ones, so there's a guaranteed bias in reporting times.

Wade sounds like he's in even worse shape than we thought.

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 03:30 PM) ahem And...(Trumpet sound)...Jack Egbert.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 03:25 PM) Can somebody (balta?) find a good study on the amount of violent crime in England before and after the gun bans? Well, IIRC the short answer is going to be that it has gone upwards, but the longer answer is yes, the crime amounts have gone upwards, but the long-term trends were upwards before the bans were even enacted, and the long term trends have shown some sign of reversing in recent years. The longest answer is, it's complicated and I don't really know what the data show, so go read for yourself. The firearm section starts on page 71.

QUOTE(Markbilliards @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 03:19 PM) So what pitchers do the White Sox have that we could be excited about now? Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Andrew Sisco, Lance Broadway, Charlie Haeger, and down the line Aaron Poreda. Adam Russell out of the bullpen.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 02:04 PM) Well I was really trying to emphasize the last few hundred thousand years, being as that is a very long time period weather-wise, and there is solid data to work from. But as we are on the topic of millions of years ago, while I am sure you can indeed get data, I would think that because of the geological reality of the time (all that volcanism, totally different environment biologically, atmosphere so different, etc.), that data would be less meaningful. I would put less stock in it. Feel free to tell me why I am wrong - I am open to correction. I wouldn't say less "meaningful", I'd say less well constrained. For example...using various proxies, isotopic signatures and other samples, we can come up with pretty decent measurements of the CO2 levels all the way through the Phanerozoic (Last 543 million years or so). But, I can't necessarily give you the high frequency, "plus or minus 100 year" type data I can give you with the ice cores (which have these beautiful annual bands in them that you can literally count). But just because I can't say that CO2 went up by 20 ppm over this timespan when I look at the Eocene doesn't mean that if I say CO2 went down by 800 ppm over the last 50 million years I'm somehow incorrect. I can't give you a complete picture of the orbital oscillations and their climate signals over that time span (although, remarkably, you can find units that are tens to hundreds of millions of years old that preserve those signals), but the thing to pay attention to is the scale. Just picking up one graph, you can sort of see the type of resolution we can get pretty well:

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 01:58 PM) Yeah a bit sad about Gibbs, although I shouldn't be saying that as a Cowboys fan. Do they go with Gregg Williams or Al Saunders, or does Snyder give big money to Bill Cowher? I bet he at least tries the big money to Cowher.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 01:56 PM) History can be found without having been there, via numerous scientific methods. I was in agreement with you on research and caution, but I think you are wrong about not being able to draw some conclusions about our climate. WE know a LOT more than we did just a few decades ago, and the data being researched stretches back hundreds of thousands of years. How is that not big enough of a sample? Besides, the climate millions of years ago is irrelevant, given the planet was so completely different. You know what, I actually disagree with you here. The climate millions of years ago is very relevant, because it gives us data about the conditions on the earth under circumstances that we currently aren't yet at. For example, we can get data that suggest that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was much higher 50 million years ago and we can look at the geology to tell us what was going on on the earth during that time. Right now, we're already pushing atmospheric CO2 up to levels it hasn't been at in several million years, in another century at current rates we'll have CO2 concentrations above those 50 million years ago at the Eocene Thermal Maximum (1000 ppm or so). One useful bit of info is that it seems that the earth was unable to establish permanent ice caps until CO2 levels dropped to below 500 ppm CO2 or so, and in the past 100 years we've gone from 280 to nearly 400, so that bit of geology gives us some suggestion about where the tipping point in the ice cap system may lie.

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 01:47 PM) That was a quick backflip there Reddy. What's changed in 18 hours or so? The Konerko, Orioles, Angels deal fell apart.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 01:10 PM) The bottom line is that it is extremely difficult for humans to get an accurate handle on what causes climactic change on Earth. Considering the dramatic climactic changes which have occured over the Earth's history (what, 4.5 billion years according to most estimates?), decades- even centuries of data are simply drops in the bucket in terms of causes and effects of climate change. Comparing what is happening in the 90's to ANY period in the past for which we have data is like measuring the ability of a baseball player for one at-bat to his other at-bats in that game, but ignoring his performance over the rest of his career in the past. It simply isn't a big enough sample size to ascertain accurate conclusions from. I'd just like to add...No.

QUOTE(ptatc @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 11:47 AM) I'm not sure if the injection site was mentioned but he stated it was for overall body pain not for a localized problem. You wouldn't use Lidocaine for an overall body pain.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 11:16 AM) Wasn't that an Enron thing? The rolling black outs? The official energy crisis was driven by them keeping power plants deliberately off line and forcing the state to buy whatever capacity it could from whoever was selling at whatever price (Enron). But CA, especially in the LA Area, has a real nasty habit of pushing itself right up to the limit of the power grid every summer when the big heat wave hits, and it's become fairly common that there are rolling blackouts on a smaller scale because the system can't handle the load. If all you did was save 1% of the area's electricity by altering everyone's thermostat who has one by 1 degree, it'd make a huge difference.

Faux News is reporting that the Clinton Campaign, in a major staff shakeup, is going to bring Carville and Begala back into the fold. Carville swears it's not true.

QUOTE(chisoxt @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 10:56 AM) First of all, does anyone actually think that the performancesof Danks and Floyd instill confidence that they will be capable fourth and fifth starters? Yes.

QUOTE(GreenSox @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 11:06 AM) But he can't play the position. Crede's contract isn't going to be that big, Boras or not. Also, the Sox played Crede in LF last year, so they must have had other ideas for 3b I think every single point you make there is wrong.

QUOTE(Alpha Dog @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 11:05 AM) In other words, the temperature of your home will no longer be yours to control. Your desires and needs can and will be overridden by the state of California through its public and private utility organizations. All this is for the common good, of course. What's next, big view screens in your walls so that the state can check up on you and make sure you are working out? Ok, so since it's CA, I can safely say this. Which would you rather have...the government turning down your thermostat or the government turning off your lights? Because one of those 2 has happened in the last 10 years.

Rudy's response to Hillary tearing up on the campaign trail yesterday? Come on, who can guess it?

By the way, I think it might be worth noting that Obama has taken several steps to be involved in trying to find a solution to the Kenyan election violence, despite the fact that he's been a bit busy over the last week or so.

QUOTE(heirdog @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 09:38 AM) What does the line about the rules prohibit trading 4 of your top prospects mean? Can a team only trade up to 3 of their top prospects and what rank list is this based off? The specific rule is that you can't trade a player who is drafted by a team until 1 year after the draft. By that line, they're saying that Poreda is in our top 4, and therefore can't be traded yet.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 09:20 AM) I'd really appreciate if you would elaborate on that ... regarding both candidates. Not intended as a challenge, but more of what is your thinking here. A lot of the better articles have disappeared from the Google or been hidden behind subscription archive walls, but the general consensus back in 04 was that Edwards was trying to run as the electable, centrist, southern Democrat, and that's why Kerry picked him, to try to balance out his northeastern liberalness. Exit polling in the primaries did suggest that in fact was the case in the voting; as the crossover voters, the independents/Republicans who showed up to vote in the contested Dem primary in states that allowed it, went stronger for Edwards than for Kerry, suggesting to me that Edwards did pull off something of a centrist argument then. For one of the examples I was able to find: Guardian

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 09:27 AM) I disagree with you vehemently on this issue Balta, but... that was nicely played. Not sure I've actually staked out a specific position here, just went for the joke. And if you don't believe me...that's why I have all the guns.