Balta1701

So "the election has been stolen because _____ no evidence but black people in cities" is officially the position of one party, and that's an important perspective to give time on air to?

Does Cease still qualify for any prospect lists or are we still basing that on the preseason rankings? Anyway, I'll back off a little bit and offer a more detailed comparison. Looking back at the thread for the Q/Cease/Eloy deal thread, generally everyone considered Cease to fall in the 50-65 range, so yeah not top 50, knocking on the door of that but yes, not top 50. But, Eloy was considered consensus #5 at the time. So...I will stand with "Vaughn + Kopech" as the comp for "Eloy + Cease". Top 15 guy + Kopech (doesn't qualify, lost a year+ of control, but valued above where Cease was at the time). Vaughn < Eloy in value, but Kopech > Cease, and they come to a balance.

One thing worth noting on Springer is that he did have a DL stint in each year 2017-2019, including missing 40 games with a hamstring injury in 2019.

I mean, the press is willing to go along with it so...

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/ That website is fake news? I guess under the “I don’t agree with it therefore it is fake news” standard. Who ever heard of...MLB.com?

I have 3 different posts above where I give ranking numbers and that somehow wasn’t good enough for you. But at least it’s clear why this won’t happen, because you folks demand a massive discount from Tampa Bay but aren’t prepared to admit that’s what you’re asking for.

quite literally your argument here is “Marquez’s 2020 numbers don’t count so we should get a discount on him”. Again, maybe that works for Colorado, but come on.

Lol at Madrigal and Cease being top 50 prospects. People are trying to dump them because they’ve lost or never had confidence in them.

So Kopech and Vaughn is a pretty fair price for them to ask for Marquez (particularly since Kopech has lost a year of control). Comparable to the Quintana deal. Maybe a little higher price, but you get 4 years of Marquez right now and the Cubs got 3.4 of Quintana, and Quintana was not performing that great in the few months prior while Marquez just had a great season, led the league in IP and did so quite effectively. Maybe, maybe, you could talk me into Vaughn + Madrigal + Dunning or something like that instead of Kopech, but the 3rd piece has to be pretty good to offset the 2nd piece being worse. But you don't get him without Vaughn as the centerpiece, that's not even up for discussion, he's not available without that piece.

I mean, the Rockies might, but that's because I'm not sure they're run that well. I'd scoff at that if I was the Rockies GM.

MLB.com had Cease 57.

Cease was top 50 or better at the time of that deal, and Eloy was top 5. This is just illustrating the problem - we don't want to give up fair value in these proposed deals, we're assuming the Rockies or Rays will give their players up for less than they're worth.

I mean, the problem with Marquez is that his comp is Quintana, and that comp is Vaughn + Kopech also. 2 really good prospects, top 30 quality. We're talking about guys I won't give up in order to make either of these guys work. If they get a Cease, Madrigal, and Dunning offer, they're at least going to call around to other teams knowing the White Sox won't rescind that offer, and they'll get better talent for him.

As I said, that's a rotten return for Snell even if they really like those guys. And that doesn't even note the fact that Tampa Bay has Lowe firmly ensconced at 2b, and Madrigal seems pretty position limited.

Yoan Moncada was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball at the time and Kopech was consensus top 30. Compare the value of the top 2 - Kopech and Vaughn are what, 1 top 15, one top 30 right now if they counted? Kopech might even be top 50? If Vaughn is the centerpiece, he's way below the value of Moncada at the time, generally he's somewhere around #10-15 so something else has to make up the difference between a #1 prospect included and a #10-15 prospect, and that has to be pieces 3-4. That's how I got to Vaughn, Kopech, Cease, and Madrigal - top 2 don't match the Sale deal, but back 2 make up the difference. Madrigal (top 100), Dunning might be borderline top 100 based on what he did this year, Cease and Stiever are outside the top 100 but moderately close? Even if Tampa Bay really, really liked those guys, they can easily find better talent.

If I were Tampa Bay, I would not give up Snell for that deal as if I were moving Snell I would expect I could get better than that from someone else. You are adding Kopech to the list or I'll find better elsewhere. Kopech, Vaughn, Madrigal, and Cease - you've probably got a deal. That contract is expensive for Tampa Bay, but under control for 3 years for that money, with a Cy Young award, money that works for 28/30 teams, you're talking a Sale level deal for him.

With Tampa Bay anything is possible, but you're going to pay through the teeth. I mean, Vaughn + Kopech + a strong 3rd piece.

1. The risk of catching it if someone who is positive is in the room with you is not 100%. It depends on how long you're in there, whether people are masked, ventilation, air flow paths, unknowns like how much virus you personally would need to inhale to catch it. 2. What we can say is...assume the virus is distributed randomly amongst the population in your county, based on number of known cases (likely underestimated because there are so many cases). Select a random group of x number of people. What are the odds someone in that group has it? Note that this is guaranteed to be an underestimate. You can play that statistical game here. In Orange County, if you have 25 people in a room, there is an 8.7% chance that someone in the room has/will be soon diagnosed with the virus right now. https://sites.google.com/compassfortcollins.org/coronavirusrisk/home

I would be 100,000th in line. I have some reasons why I shouldn’t be first/in a test group, but those same reasons say I really won’t do well if I get the actual virus.

I've been surprised at the 2 contracts signed so far, even though they've only been 1 year deals. I wonder if the owners aren't thinking that next season could be somewhat shortened, so that they're not going to pay out the full dollar amount they're signing.

Well that's pretty darn frustrating.

I just had to drive across the country in October. It can be done about as safely as going into any other business, I think. I was more worried in rest stops since I was inside and near people for a while. In a hotel room, if the air conditioning/heat has been on before you come in, the air has circulated through enough that there shouldn't be anything left. Don't stand in the hallway talking to people, if you go in and out of your room, go outside quickly, don't linger. Tell them fast food or takeout for every meal. No standing indoors with people for more than a few minutes, and if someone is indoors without a mask, leave the room as quickly as you can.

I mean, if after taking something for 12 months, 0.1% of people begin to experience severe complications with a drug, that's a bad thing and a major concern with the drug, dependning on what it is for. If we wait that long for this one, the body count will be what, another 500k? 100k if we got our act together? And then we'll have tens of millions with heart damage, brain damage, lung damage that might kill them a few years down the road? In an emergency, you do the best you can and fix problems you created later. That's where we are now with this thing. Out of the initial group, no one showed severe complications in the first few months - that's enough to get it to health workers and the elderly, because this thing is killing them right now. This thing is killing 10-20% of the elderly people who get it.

I think we're presuming that when the applications are submitted to the FDA and approved, we'll see far more data like the 130 page document dump Moderna did in ~August, rather than the 1 page press releases we're seeing now. If all you see is 1 page press releases from the FDA and Pfizer saying its fine...people will start asking for the data behind it. If they refuse to share that...well...That would be a serious concern.