Balta1701

You just got a geologist high 5 for one of those words. Enjoy!

I think right now, globally, there just aren't the resources to do this. You can't do it in places that got the virus under control because there aren't enough cases coming into schools to be able to assess "how likely is a super-spreading event". You can't do it in the US because we don't have nearly enough testing capacity for the adults, so a lot of kids may be getting it and even passing it along without it being noticed if their symptoms are weak enough. The only things we have are statistics saying "closing schools was not strongly correlated with decreasing viral spread", but we don't have any of the details to evaluate that. I think the teachers unions were probably pretty smart in holding off on responding to plans until there was something to respond to out in the public, this isn't a case where you want all your teachers fighting publicly against kids going to school until they have specific details to fight against. They were probably working behind the scenes as much as possible - Texas, for example, had no desire to put out a mask mandate in schools and the unions basically said that was a non-starter, so the "re-opening plan" requires all students to wear masks. You're also starting to see some come out this week now that states are putting out their "School reopening plans". I would happily offer my teaching skills for such an online program if one existed. I'm available.

You're right that doesn't work everywhere (Texas in August wouldn't be pleasant either) but that's about the only workable idea I've heard for any schools anywhere. The Texas agency is saying "We'll close down and sanitize a wing if a student tests positive" and every time I hear that I think "so, they got infected 4 days before they were tested in order to show symptoms, they had a test done, they waited 6 days for the result, they've had 10 days to spread it around and you still don't know where they got it, and so your solution is to sanitize a wing of the school" and I just think "Good luck".

What's the plan "When" one/multiple people come down with it? This is an airborne virus. "Sanitation" does a little bit, but if you have a bunch of people in a room for hours at a time, then sanitizing the surfaces the next day doesn't matter.

The simple version is "we don't know everything but it looks like pregnancies are at high risk of some damage". In other words, Mike Trout has a kid due in a couple months, and he'd be very much justified in sitting out this season given the risks. There's a bunch of things that have come out over the last month about placental damage and infections being transmitted that you really don't want to risk.

Without adding too many details, how much have you followed the recent results on the virus and pregnancies?

https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/advice/skills/how-to-see-comet-c-2020-f3-neowise/ So there's a naked eye visible comet this month if you're away from too much light pollution. Currently up at Dawn, will be up at Dusk later this month.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351 This is just on hospitalized patients from Italy. Sample size is 143, so not terrible, some biases through it being people hospitalized but given that exception, the real number is probably within 10% of this. Patients studied 60 days after the onset of the illness, a large majority still experiencing symptoms 2 full months later. More than half had mulitple symptoms.

I'm waiting to see one that has learned.

Texas has had 10% of its recorded COVID-19 deaths in the past 3 days.

Is this the wrong link?

BIg 10 officially states that if they are able to do sports in fall (they leave it open in the press release) they will eliminate all non-conference games, including in Football. https://bigten.org/news/2020/7/9/big-ten-statement-on-2020-21-fall-season.aspx

This is the kind of thing I mean when I say that there is no functioning economy/society with this thing out of control. It affects everything.

2 key points. "What New York needs to do isn't what everywhere else needs to do" was literally a column by one of the Republicans in the New York Times in April/May about why it was ok to be re-opening Florida and Texas. The problem turned out to be - that was wrong. Everywhere needed to kill it, everywhere needed to get it under control, and when some places listened to that advice, they created another nationwide spike. Second, on point 2, - That's exactly what Texas, Florida, Arizona did. Their death rates haven't hit New York levels yet, but these states are a disaster. Texas has had to shut down non-essential surgeries for the 2nd time already, which means hospitals are going bankrupt fighting this thing and people can't get needed medical care. Businesses are back to closing because people are coming into their offices sick and infecting other people even when they take precautions like masks. Restaurants and bars cannot be open, it spreads too easily and you can't wear a mask while eating or drinking. People can't work with this thing around. People get too sick and it spreads too easily, and yes it may not kill that many people below 50, but something like 5% still wind up hospitalized and there are an unknown number with large, long-term complications, including people who are never hospitalized. This thing is an absolute beast. You cannot send people out to get infected by this thing, the people who this didn't kill are still potentially going to be having major issues years down the road. There will not be a US Economy until either: 1. We get case loads nationwide down so low that it is possible to test, trace, and isolate virtually every case, or: 2. We have a vaccine. You can pretend things are open, but eventually your business community will revolt once their workers are all getting it, and half the population is going to check out anyways because we know our risk factors.

In 2019 at 2nd base it was worth 11.8 runs over the course of the season per UZR. Eyeballing it, it looks like Vaughn would have to put up a wRC+ more than 30 points higher than Madrigal at 2b to make up that difference, and that's not counting baserunning. He could do that, but what a waste of a bat.

Madrigal is also supposed to be a true gold glove 2b though, so you’re talking a really substantial defensive dropoff. And if Vaughn at 2b means Abreu at 1b, my word what have we done to the defense over there, we may as well put Anderson in the overshift against everyone. Plus, both he and Vaughn would be really cheap. Don’t discount that, if Madrigal is a good but not great player, but you pay each of them under $10 million for their first 4 years combined, that’s money that can go to a big upgrade elsewhere.

I think the exact opposite. For whatever legal reason they're maneuvering to give excuses when asked.

Literally no teams are going to believe that Vaughn is a 3b, especially after this season, in any sort of trade talks. They'd have to see him play there in a full minor league season first such that they could both scout him and see him in a large variety of game situations, which he won't be doing any time soon.

That is correct.

1. It is absolutely normal to work guys at other positions during spring training. It's good for their instincts to see the ball coming from other angles, and it provides you an emergency backup option when guys get hurt or thrown out of a game. In 2005 we once saw Jermaine Dye playing shortstop. 2. The situation this season means that there's probably all sorts of weird scenarios I could come up with where a bit of extra positional flexibility could be even more useful. 3. Vaughn will not be called up to play 3b, or almost certainly also won't be called up to play RF. If he were called up, it would be because we had a major issue at 1b with both Abreu and Encarnacion out and missing significant time all at once which remains possible given the situation this season. 4. They might try other options before calling Vaughn up, such as Yermin etc., but if he were performing well in practice, and we lost our regular 1bs (again, entirely plausible this year), and this team was even close to in contention, calling up Vaughn to play some 1b would be a reasonable move even if it burned some extra service time. 5. In that case, it would be useful if Vaughn also had the ability to be an emergency backup 3b. He would not be called up to play that position, but if something happened to the person playing 3b, and we didn't have anyone else on the bench, you could move someone to 1b easily and move Vaughn to 3b and cover that position in an emergency.

We literally have what, 30 states that are now examples of how every little step makes a difference? The governor of Texas explained it perfectly in a call with business leaders that was leaked in early May, when he outlined his plan for having the Coronavirus overrun the state. So, if you want more contact between people, you have to somehow increase what you're doing from here to keep cases from increasing. If you want more businesses open or more people in the office, and you're at a "level number of cases" for the past 2 weeks, then you need to increase what you're doing to fight the thing. So from here, you need to increase mask usage from what is happening right now, or you need to increase your ability to trace and isolate. If you don't do that, then it's almost ipso facto.

A handful of games does not burn a year of service time.

I believe it's the same as being called up - you have to be on an active roster (or disabled list) for 92% of the games during the season. So if you opt out half way through, you remain arb-eligible next season.