Balta1701

And bad luck is why there are 0 teams that have won 300+ games over the past 3 seasons, it's just flat out impossible to have that kind of sustained success through bad luck.

First of all it's some element of frustration and being sick of this guy. Second, our resident physical trainer has suggested that his shoulder injury could lend to him not being able to stay healthy while pitching out of the bullpen. Whether that remains the case after another injury I don't know, but the person here with more expertise than me has said "no" to putting him in the bullpen before for physical reasons. Third, it's not just $4.5 million, it's also $6 million he'll make in 2021 because if you're bringing him back this year when he's not going to be 100% you're going to be committing even more money to him the next year. I know I'd probably bring him back given the choice also, but if you're thinking of him as a reliever, you're paying him $10m+ for 1 1/3 seasons, he better be a darn good relief pitcher and we have no way to know that he is yet. $10 million will buy a good, established reliever who will be available for more of the time next season.

Carlos Rodon is not a #2/#3 starter. He has been a #3 starter-ish quality pitcher for 1 season in his career and that was 4 seasons and 2 severe injuries ago. Aside from that he has been a part-season, fill-in starter who has some periods of dominance and other periods where he struggles mightily.

He praised a guy who might spend money on his players. It's a perfect reply from a professional. A "no comment" would have come off as a negative, so he says positive things no m atter what he feels. He might believe them. He might feel the exact opposite. But he's a professional and an expert at doing his job, he acts like it.

Of course Scott Boras is going to say that, he's a professional. Scott Boras's job is to get money for his clients. The White Sox are a business with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue who might spend some portion of that revenue on his clients. He could hate Jerry Reinsdorf with the passion of a thousand suns but because he's a professional, he doesn't go out in public ripping people who might spend money on his business.

I believe it was @Dick Allen but I could be wrong on this - one of our posters was a season ticket holder back in 2014 when they drafted Rodon and after finally getting him to sign, over-slot, Hahn held a meeting with season ticket holders, that subject came up, and Hahn sarcastically described the Rodon drafting as having a long and productive discussion with "My good friend Scott Boras". So it's clear they're still not fans of working with him, but they will if they have to. They still were the only team to meet with Harper last year at the winter meetings regardless, and the reason they weren't in the discussion at the end was that they low-balled him badly when they put an offer on the table. So I do think Boras likely has an equal beef with the White Sox's FO too.

I put you on the spot to test whether you really believed they'd be the overwhelming favorites and you wouldn't stand behind your own words. Which is 100% correct! Even if they did all that, there would be people who would pick them for the division, but there'd be plenty of reason to pick the other 2 teams. That's why the "all in 2020 or bust" style of buying everything...really isn't the right move. There needs to be a plan for how we get better this year and how we get better in 2021 if this year doesn't go well.

So you're not as confident as you wanted to sound. My point exactly.

I certainly wouldn't. The teams at the top of this division are good. And injuries can happen. And guys sometimes underperform, especially when bought on the free agent market. But maybe you're certain on that. Are you so certain that you would say you're ok with rebuilding again in 2021 if you're wrong?

Well first of all it's $30 million more than this franchise has ever done, so I do doubt we're going that high. But, I've been surprised before, so I'm not going to say we won't. We could get to that, but if that's our limit - hitting our limit next year is a huge mistake. If we did all those contracts next year and win the Central, which is possible, then maybe playoff revenue supports slight payroll growth in 2021. But let's say that adding those guys takes this 70 win team up to 88 wins, and we miss the Wild Card by 5 or 6 wins since the top of the league is so good. What contracts end after 2021? Let's assume the $10 million pitcher contract ends, Colome's contract ends, Herrera's contract ends, Leury's contract ends. That's $32 million-ish that comes off the books. But, in 2021...Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all hit arbitration for the first time. If they continue performing at all, that's more than $20 million in new money to pay those guys. Plus, salaries for Anderson, Rodon, Eloy all go up. Assume the team keeps Mr. Lifetime Contract Abreu in 2021 for similar money. In that case, the White Sox's payroll commitments into the 2021 offseason are >$150 million. And that's with no bench and no closer. So, how does your team get any better in 2021 than they were in 2020? You have less than $10 million to spend, and little in the way of new prospects arriving. If your team wins 88 games next year, you lose your closer and bench and rotation depth so your roster is worse on paper, you have little to no youth coming up...how do you get better? You better have someone break out, because now your expensive guys are now a year older. And in 2022, it gets worse, because each of those salaries keeps going up. So, if you go to $160 million this year, and that's your payroll limit without new revenue growth, you better win the Central with ease and soon. If you don't, then in 2022, you're set up to start the next rebuild, because you've got to clear some payroll.

He's not under contract for next year so no insurance company is going to put a policy on that to return $2 million if you already know he's hurt. Your insurance cost would be $2 million.

Honestly it's more an emotional reaction at this point than anything else, but I'm tired of Carlos Rodon. He has not become a better pitcher on our watch at all, he's gone backwards, his stuff has gone backwards, and he's not going to give us anything of real value this year even if he comes back. I get why bringing him back this year is the right move, but I'm just tired of him. Maybe he's a solid pitcher out of the bullpen. I no longer believe in him as a starter with this organization. He's my 7th starter this year.

Rodon has 2 more years of cost control left total. He's a free agent after 2021. If he comes back healthy enough next season, you have him for 1 more year.

I am ok with a stopgap in RF as well, I would have no issues doing both Moustakas and Calhoun or Moustakas and Puig and seeing what develops at those positions over the next season (Hell, maybe we're even in a position to make a run at Betts or Springer in 2020 if we have a good year), and letting the young guys fill out the rest of the offense. But we aren't going to have a 5 man rotation out of this organization in the next 2 years, and the guys we do have will likely need some development work. 2 true top of the rotation starters are likely available this offseason, that's where we should do the big signing this year. Oh, and count me in on Will Smith also.

That'd be my preference, particularly the pitching. Give me the starting pitching and I'd rather save the money on the lineup while at the same time getting more positional flexibility.

I don't disagree that it makes some sense, but it's not my preferred use of resources. Feels like a backup plan to me.

I think my biggest gut issue with it is that Heyward is signed for soo long. If he was signed for 2 years that's one thing, but be honest, do we really want to commit $10 million per year to Heyward as our starting RF for the next 4 years?

He's clearly not as good as JD Martinez, but Moustakas fills that role fairly well as a power hitting lefty. Not only would he come substantially cheaper...but he also would give us far more ability to use him in the field than you get with Martinez.

Well first of all you said you'd sign Rendon for DH and then turned around and said why you wouldn't, but anyway there's a bigger flaw in this one. For quick round numbers, $20 million for Abreu (Qualifying offer), $30 million for Stras, $30 million for Rendon, $20 million for Grandal, $10 million for your "another quality pitcher", $15 million to cover Anderson, Jiminez, and Herrera (under contract), another $20 million in arbitration to keep Rodon, Leury, and Colome, and another $10 million in salaries to fill out the roster, and you're nearly at $160 million counting McCann.

The Nationals just put $210 million on the table for him and it's a fair offer. Are you up for a 7 year, $210 million contract for a DH? I'm not a fan of signing Martinez, but given the choice between that offer and Martinez, JD Martinez is an easy choice.

Unless they do something like move Calhoun or non-tender multiple arbitration guys, that pushes them into Tax territory, FWIW.

I don't think there's anything resembling a favorite for Cole. I think there will be 4-5 teams legitmately in it, I think what happens to the Yankees and Dodgers this postseason affects whether they're in it (both have the money), teams like the Cubs may try to move payroll to get into that discussion, and I think the White Sox have the money available to be a player if they want to be. I also don't think this drags out to February because the demand for him should be strong.

Given the Cubs' salary constraints, regardless of what they want to do next season - either staying under the tax level or cutting payroll or trying to expand payroll and get back into the playoffs - he shouldn't cost so much in a trade for acquiring him to be prohibitively expensive.

Aside from Cole and Stras do you consider any of the other guys "#1 or #2 starters"? Keuchel, Wheeler, Odo, Bum, all are good solid rotation pieces, but all would need to take a step upwards to be a #1/#2 by that standard.