Balta1701

The owners won't let anyone sign him.

I'm not sure I dump Pace and Nagy 1 year after a solid playoff run, but I am open to other QB options right now, with them on the clock.

Part of the problem in 2015 and 2016 was that they had a couple of strong pieces, but they had overextended themselves so much that if they held onto their strong pieces, they were going to go from 78 wins to 75 wins to 73 wins and 70 wins, getting more expensive, and then Sale would be hitting free agency. They said in 2015 "We are going to hurt ourselves for the next 2 years, but because we're going to be competitive this year it will all be ok", and then in 2016 they said "We're going to destroy ourselves for 2017-2019 and we're going to even risk ruining our last first round pick, but this team is clearly the best in the AL and we just need to show it". They spent 2015-2016 leaving themselves absolutely nothing to build with. There was no realistic hope that they were going to get better any of the following years. This organization historically has been cheap, but they also haven't sold off guys before they left unless they were completely out of a race. They were out of the race in 2017 and 2018 before the year even started, that's why they had to sell off those 3 guys. What is different right now? I can't scoff at the notion of this team competing the next 4 years. Maybe in 2 years, enough stuff will have gone bad that we'll be back in the same boat as 2016, having Gio and Moncada and nothing else, but as of now - there's no reason to believe we won't be able to at least have competitive games in some of the next few septembers. Given that status, I'd say they are extremely likely to hold onto those guys. They won't make a decision like this for at least the next few years, and frankly after a completely wasted decade, they might as well do so.

This is pretty much what I expect them to do, he's movable, they might have to put in a tiny bit of money for some teams but that's a movable option. Pick up the option, hold him through the winter meetings, make your run at Cole, and if you are in the position of needing to move payroll trade him then.

Are we sure about this? Anaheim still has an option on him.

I have no issues with doing this. However I note...it does nothing to improve my 2020 bullpen.

Well, some would say that a closer's main job is to be a good pitcher. Colome had a .491 OPS in save situations, but gave up a .773 OPS and a 3.95 ERA in non-save situations, so he really couldn't be counted on to say, pitch as a setup man or pitch the 10th inning in a tie game, or at least an elite team wouldn't be able to use him that way. Chapman put up a .529 OPS in save situations and a .555 OPS in non-save situations, so your entire statement that Colome was "slightly more effective" hangs on that stat. And as we've seen, teams these days will use closers in high-leverage situations that aren't save situations, or in the 10th inning of tie games, to try to preserve the chance to get a win, so the "Save situation" split only should get you so far. That said, I want Aroldis Chapman no where near any franchise I'm cheering for.

So what are you going to do if it's $110-$120? I don't know what it will be but I certainly can't rule out that they'll be in that range.

Well yeah, but that's a completely unrealistic number. They're not going to turn down arbitration on Colome, McCann, Leury, and they have to fill a 25 man roster. Add in Abreu and they're at $70-ish million, give or take, as a starting point. Don't make it sound like more payroll is available than there really is.

That $50 million from that sale conveniently came at the same time they spent $50 million on Robert. And every other team got that same $50 million. They have plenty of money to spend compared to their current payroll, but I'm not sure where their limit will be.

It is worth considering that our revenues have dropped substantially, in both ticket sales and probably advertising, since the White Sox were last in the top 10 in payroll. Shared revenue has gone up, but that's true for every team.

Last year JD Martinez was literally the 16th best hitter in the game by wRC+, not top 3. The 15th best was someone named Moncada.

This myth that Boras tells his clients not to sign early is silly, he tells them not to sign an undervalued bid just because that's what is there early. It's entirely possible that could happen to some of these guys, maybe JD Martinez or someone like that again, but the largest pitching free agent contract in history was signed during the Winter Meetings in 2015. But that's not because that's a Boras strategy, that's because the teams are not bidding for some of these guys until there is pressure on them, from spring training. If there are players that there are actually multiple teams bidding for them, then the deals will get done early. Machado and Harper's sides held out last year because the only team that came forward with an early bid expected unreasonably huge discounts; Boras and Machado's agent knew that eventually teams would put fair offers on the table for both and that happened. Teams saw that guys who were valuable had the potential to be underbid, and then bid them both up to reasonable deals.

The difference between $62 million and $70 million is the number of minimum salary guys that fill out the 26 person roster. 10-15 of them and they add up, so when you count those, $70 million is a reasonable starting point, $75 if Yolmer is retained.

I think you're being quite conservative with your salary estimates. We're at about $70 million with Abreu assuming Sanchez is non-tendered. $10 million for Gardner bring to $80 million. $20 million each for the others brings to $140 million, and that's without bullpen help. You can get down to $130 if Bumgarner and Grandal and Wheeler are all substantially under $20 million, but then you have no bullpen help and no bench help.

After last offseason he clearly isn't going to hold out for 4 years if a good solid 2 year deal is on the table, and while he's not the same pitcher he was in his cy young year, he's been quite consistent over the last 3.

Rendon or Martinez? If they try to sign both, they're going to have major tax issues.

It's also worth considering that revenues may not be the thing that supports team valuations, but also the fact that we have a lot of billionaires who have no idea what to do with the vast amounts of money they have and owning a sports team is a serious vanity project.

And like last year, the leaks are totally always correct.

I get the connection here but I'd reword it...if the White Sox are willing to let Jose Abreu go after 2020, JDM makes sense.

In his 2016 big breakout year he hit 34 HRs. I'm totally ok with Freeman being a good comp for Vaughn; young freeman was a solidly productive player, age 26-on Freeman has been an offensive force and an MVP candidate.

How much of that is the line and how much of that is not having a straight ahead runner like Howard any more who can take the first little bit of contact without going down?

Depends on the asset. Right now I'm hoping the White Sox have 3 big leaguers left in their minors - Robert, Vaughn, and Madrigal, and I don't have a lot of confidence elsewhere. Everyone else is very far away or busted. I'll at least listen on anyone else if the return is right.

He's a guy I'm willing to trade but not sure whether I like him for Joc. I guess maybe I can talk myself into it?