Balta1701

Delmonico had a full season last year where he could have earned playing time if he stayed healthy, he didn't stay healthy and he didn't hit well when he was present. Last year we needed to give guys like him a chance. This year, I really don't want to block Palka, I want him as the main DH, and I want Narvaez getting most of the reps behind the plate, because those guys performed last year. If Delmonico happens to hit well enough off the bench or at AAA to earn another shot, great, but he had his chance last year.

It's also possible that the floor could drop out from beneath some of the outfielders before the end of the offseason as happened to Moustakas last year. If someone like Brantley or McCutchen was available for the same money Garcia would get in arbitration, wouldn't we all go for that?

I could still be talked into something centering around Andujar for Rodon.

You're right, it was a measly 50 in 2018, my bad. It was >60 for them in 2017.

I'm totally ok with a superstar, please go get one, and I think Eloy will be one by then also. I'm hoping Moncada, by year 4, is at least a strong player. Anderson will at least be an adequate SS. It's the "Add Lowrie or Donaldson at 3b and we've got this right now" that I keep harping on. That's the weak link here. Even if you add in Harper or Machado, this team still stands a good chance of being below .500 next year unless a lot of people have breakout years, and they're not likely to be ready to stand with the big boys in 2020 although they should be above .500. Adding Donaldson or Lowrie and Corbin doesn't change that in my eyes, so it starts looking to me like money we're locking up for no good reason, and I might need some of that money in 2020 or 2021 to replace Abreu or deal with an injury in order to put the team that should be really good over the top.

Don't cross up 2020 with 2021. Mentally I threw in the towel on my 2020 dream when Kopech got hurt because any version of a great white sox team out of this org requires him to be a true #1 starter, and I expect him to need a lot of time in 2020 to get back the control he developed in the 2nd half of 2018. By 2021, that should be a dominant rotation - even if no one is signed. Kopech, Cease in their 2nd years, Rodon or Lopez in the middle, Dunning and Giolito also available, and maybe even contributions by someone else like Hansen if they turn things around - that's a rotation that has the ability to be the best in baseball.

You literally asked "What significant holes do you see on this roster" and you interpreted a person answering "here are the holes, the worst ones are the pitching staff which is completely and utterly outgunned by Cleveland's starting rotation, CF is a substantial hole and 3b is also at least a worry" as "every position has to field a better than average productive player"?

By that point, we should be talking about much more experienced pitchers, Cease in year 2, Kopech back and a full year removed from rehab, and Lopez and Gio, if they're still here, in year 4 - where we're no longer talking about them needing to make huge 1 year jumps. There would be 0 rookies in that rotation, unless Rodon has been moved. The bullpen would be guys in year 2 or 3. The Catchers would be in year 2 and hopefully performing better. Moncada - hopefully by year 3 and 4 we're talking about serious, Javy Baez like progress. And by 2021...we're going to have so many outfielders hitting the big leagues that we're likely going to have to trade one or two of them for something else to fill a hole. We should be a superteam that year. We should be talking about winning 100+ games that year. If we're not, then that means too many guys got hurt or imploded, and the rebuild flopped.

A 90 win team, the Rays, was 7 games out of the Wild Card this year. Did anyone really consider the Rays competitive this year? Cleveland's bullpen imploded and their win total was down, but that's solvable - their run differential this year was that of a 98 win team. This is the era we're in, it's the super team era. If you are not assembling a super-team, then you are not assembling a roster that really has a shot. Talking about being above .500 and how that's a competitive team - that's not the era we are in any more. So rather than talking to me about how Jed Lowrie is going to be a good player at age 35, talk to me about how signing him makes us win 100 games in 2021. If it doesn't, then it's not a move in the right direction, it's poorly spent resources.

Even though they're losing Brantley, that Cleveland team is still very strong. In the Fangraphs world, we're talking about a team that has put up >55 WAR at least each of the last 2 seasons. A little bit of maneuvering in their bullpen would have a good chance to leave them with a better record than they had in 2018, and we saw what it takes to make a run at the wild card this year - you have to hang with the Yankees and Red Sox. If you want to tell me your team is competitive you have to tell me how you are going to win 95 games on paper. If that pitching staff wins 95 games then I never want to hear a bad word uttered about Cooper again because that would be the greatest successful development of a group of pitchers we'll ever see. It not out of the realm of possibility, but that shouldn't leave us with confidence.

Yes, there are no rules about signing him if he's non-tendered.

Delmonico and Palka. At the very least, it's no more gross than a gimpy Avi Garcia out there.

Unfortunately, the same thing that makes him likely a non-tender is what made him untradeable in June, his health. He probably still can hit decently when he's healthy, but he wasn't healthy enough for the Astros to take a chance on him in June, and there's no reason to risk $8 million on a gamble that he'll be healthy next year.

He will make far less as a free agent than he would if the White Sox offered him arbitration. They may still sign an OF, but they have plenty of options on the roster to fill that position, and you can't strongly argue that they won't produce equal to Garcia even if they're bad, because he was bad last year and missed half the year. Hell, in the end they could non-tender him and then decide to bring him back later as a free agent. This would be comparable to what happened with Gordon Beckham.

Those estimates run into the same problem of people overestimating things, the numbers that you give are similar to the fraction of Americans who say they were abducted by aliens. The Rand corp did a summary of the available data on this a few years ago, but because the government is blocked from collecting this data by the gun industry, there is never good data on it, and a reasonable person would probably note that my side would be happy to collect more data and the other side is not.

There's a joke here about Dipito responding to these allegations with "I Like Beer!" that I'm not sure I can make.

That rotation and that bullpen are very weak and are both very significant holes. Your CF position is also a substantial hole. Your 3b position is at least a worry, if Lowrie does anything like what he did in 2011-2016, rather than the late career renaissance he's had the last couple years. It's going to be tough for that team to compete with Cleveland unless everything goes right and a whole lot of guys break out, on paper Cleveland is way better than that.

It's a whole new story but also there's not one established above average big leaguer in the list of names you just mentioned and there's only 1 that I have good confidence in next year. If someone genuinely believed that we were in good shape next year you'd be figuring out backup plans for the bullpen and both of the starting pitchers you mentioned.

Just a guess about how many might last through the winter meetings. Teams will drop out from their offers if he pushes too long.

If the White Sox lock up $40 million in Bryce Harper, then they are going to be either signing scrubs to fill those positions if they keep the payroll low, or they're going to be overpaying for the guys we've seen mentioned here over the past week and showing that they learned no lessons from 15-16. We've seen that story before and we know how it goes.

If this drags all the way into the new year, then yes I think that's a sign of a weak market for him. Boras likes to drag things out, sometimes past the winter meetings, but he's also not dumb. If he pushes 3 teams to give better offers for Harper, and there's no sign of any movement, those teams are going to change course and fill the roles elsewhere. He can't wait that long without expecting teams to blink.

Heyward had 2 opt-outs, one after year 3 and another after year 4. And honestly, I still think this is the one way the White Sox could lose out on both of them. We aren't going to be a competitive team in 2019 and even if we sign one of them, I'm skeptical about 2020 (Abreu needs replaced, Kopech coming back from the DL might very well need time to re-find the control he built over 4 months of this season, the catchers will be up but young). If the White Sox pay Harper $40 million per year, and they're a 75 win team next year and an 82 win team in 2020 before the glut of outfielders hits in 2021 and we finally have a loaded roster...then we'll basically be paying Harper $120 million in order to have him for 1 competitive season. That's the one thing we can't do. Opt out after year 4, maybe...year 5 ok if we have to, but if I had any choice I'd be doing it after like year 6 because I want him there for a title run. The Phillies or Braves...a team that is competitive right now...they might be able to justify a buyout after year 2 or year 3 by saying they will win a division next year with the guy. We cannot say that.

If the White Sox aren't a contender in 2021 then we're not going to be a contender in the next decade.

Personally I don't want the White Sox going after pitching on the free agent market, they acquired so much pitching in those trades that if they can't piece together a rotation out of what they acquired then this rebuild isn't going to work anyway. But...fine, if you force me to say that I'd acquire a pitcher, Verlander on a couple year deal - a true veteran, world series champ, who can still front a rotation but who won't be on a 10 year deal and who should have someone who can come up from the minors to replace him within a few years - that could be acceptable to me, if we had to.

If he isn't re-signed by the Rockies first, Arenado is a nice consolation prize for whoever doesn't get Machado this year. That starting pitching market also looks better than you've let on, with both Verlander, Cole, and Bumgarner on it.