Balta1701

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 08:14 PM) I just dont see the Pirates going away from Cutch.. Then they have to cash in Meadows either this offseason or next, with this offseason making far more sense if they could get a player with several years of control, and they're not going to find a better budgetary match than Quintana.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 06:45 PM) I said if Russia is guilty of switching votes, etc., this is UNPRECEDENTED. Why would the VP of Trump be allowed to be president when the Russians got him in office as well? They didn't switch any votes. They just committed crimes to convince people willing to listen that his opponent couldn't be voted for. It'd be like if someone hacked into your personal files, got something you didn't want people to see, then sent it to a potential employer on a job interview. The employer would still have made the decision, but a crime would have been committed to support that decision. That doesn't mean that the person who didn't have their files broken into wasn't far worse, but the person committing the crime only chose to reveal one of them based on what was best for that person.

Q that has been a really interesting question to see people's reactions to.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 05:04 PM) Did he also catch that Angels game where Rodon ate like 7 ER while only getting 2 outs? Carlos has had some hard luck games where his catcher hasn't done him any favors, but he's had some games where he has been a straight up batting tee. I dont blame the catcher when the ball is intercepted on its way from the mound to the catcher's mitt by the swinging bat of some hulking slugger and deposited 430 feet away into someone's nachos. Rodon's likely already a different pitcher than he was as a rookie so even though that was a trend in 2015 it doesn't mean it will hold in 2017...but at the very least once I remembered that it was there I figure it's something we should watch for. If it came down to it, Narvaez being a personal catcher for Rodon doesn't seem like the worst thing.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 05:47 PM) I'm pumped. It's been weeks since any real new rumors came out. I'm still wondering if the reality is "nothing new is happening but Rosenthal is back from vacation".

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 04:50 PM) Holy hell Brantly: 2 starts, 1.23 ERA, 2 BB, 12 SO, .208/.246/.264/.510, 0 HR Flowers: 17 starts, 2.73 ERA, 49 BB, 98 SO, .234/.331/.341/.672, 7 HR Soto: 7 starts, 9.12 ERA, 20 BB, 29 SO, .330/.444/.550/.994, 4 HR Yeah, I vaguely remembered one of those guys being terrible with him.

What were Rodons catcher ERA splits with Soto like in 2015?

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 12:23 PM) Again - you seem so certain Jose will not improve on his 2016 season. We'll use your preferred stat wRC+ - let's make a wager on next season. I say he improves - you say he doesn't. You have a very odd definition of certainty. The 2nd quote is in the portion you replied to.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 11:31 AM) Sure, but as a GM, I'd feel more comfortable paying less money to a 33 year old Abreu than a 37 year old Encarnacion in 2020. And from my GM chair, I look at a guy who put up a .964 OPS at age 27, a .850 OPS at 28, and a .820 OPS at 29, and say that at the current rate he'll be a .700 OPS hitter by age 33. Right now he's a league average 1b trending rapidly downwards. Every part of his game got weaker last year and every part of his game is trending downwards. You can say all you want about how he's younger, but his numbers make it look like he's aging worse than the much older guy. Turn that trend around and you become correct - his value can shoot back up because he is younger if he were to start performing again. That doesn't change what he has done the last 2 years.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 11:27 AM) In your analysis of a potential Abreu FA contract vs. that of Encarnacion, I believe you're severely undervaluing the difference in their ages. Abreu is 30, Encarnacion turns 34 tomorrow. That alone is a huge factor. And I believe you're severely undervaluing the fact that Encarnacion at age 33 outperformed Age 29 Abreu.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 11:12 AM) According to OPS+, he was a considerably better hitter than Napoli in 2016. Not to mention, Jose still has incredible upside in his bat, whereas a guy like Napoli may give you another season like 2016 if you're lucky, but more than likely will regress back to a .750 OPS type player because he is 5 whole years older than Jose, and his only year that has approached Abreu's average season over the past three was way back in 2011. Jose Abreu >>>>> Mike Napoli, and I like Mike Napoli. wRC+ is 118 for Abreu, 113 for Napoli. Otherwise their numbers last year were comparable. Hell, their slugging %ages differ by 0.03. Mike Napoli will not get anywhere near the contract I just stated I think Abreu would get. Jose Abreu would not get anywhere near the contract Encarnacion got right now. You can't go and tell me that Jose is going to get better next year when in 3 years of baseball he's gotten worse every year. If I sign him, I'm understanding there's a substantial risk that he's a sub-.800 OPS guy next year based on his trendline. To change that story he needs to reverse that trendline. It's that simple. If he puts up a 2015-like season, then his value goes back into Encarnacion territory - Encarnacion was still a better hitter in 2016 than Abreu in 2015, but Abreu being younger would get a slight premium. If he puts up a 2016 like season, then he's a $10-$12 million a year player who you probably want to shift to DH. If he follows his own trendline then by 2018 he is a "Sunk cost".

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 11:50 AM) I don't understand why people are here are so down on Jose. The current market is not ripe for trading him, I will agree with that. But the guy is 30, has raked in his three seasons in the big leagues, has a year to year contract with no buy-out, and is set to make a measly $10.825M next year. There is a ton of value in that. Due to the current FA market being saturated with RH hitting sluggers, his trade value today isn't enormous, but if he hits anything like he did in the 2nd half last year in the 1st half of 2017, his value will be enormous. If he were a FA today, I think we would get a pretty nice deal (assuming no QO attached). Let's say 4 years and $70M. Look, the Sox aren't going to give Jose away. He is going to be on the roster next year, and he should be. People are down on Jose because Jose Abreu was a strong disappointment last year following a slight disappointment in 2015. He had a strong second half yes but a first half where he was barely a big league player. If that was just weird statistics, then Jose Abreu is a 1b at age 30 who seems to be declining rapidly and was basically an average 1b across the entire league. If that was Abreu having physical issues in the first half of last year, then he seems to be a guy whose body is behaving like it is older than you'd expect at age 30, where physical issues are costing him production for 1/2 a season. Encarnacion's 2016 season was better than Abreu's 2015 season. If he carries forward how he hit in the 2nd half, yes that will boost his value significantly, but as of right now he's a 30 year old who has gotten worse every year and who performed a hair above Mike Napoli last year. If he were a FA today I believe he'd get more than 1 year if there was no QO attached, but I think he's looking at something in the 3/$35-$40 range based on his performance the last 2 seasons. Conveniently, that's about what he'll get paid if he's tendered a contract all 3 years. This is why he'll be on the roster next year for the White Sox - he's one of several guys who we are hoping will rebuild some value with better seasons next year.

QUOTE (Boogua @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 08:25 AM) As the teams are currently constructed the cavs should definitely beat the Warriors in the finals. The Warriors need some sort of rim protection. the rise of taj?

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 10:29 AM) We need you to bug the GMs offices for th Pirates and Astros. The Astros have had about 2 words spoken about them for the last month. There's more coverage for what is going to happen to the Astrodome than what they're doing right now. Football and the Rockets, plus new coaches and bowl games. The Pirates...there's always talk about them during the winter even when the Steelers are doing well, but their fans are so used to the way that organization is run that it's an elaborate dance. Talk Radio will complain about them being cheap, they won't reply but they'll continue to make cheap moves, the ballpark will still have a good attendance even if the team is below .500 because it's a spectacular park, and lately the end result anyway has been a good but not great team that everyone sorta gels behind once the season starts.

So if hypothetically he's platooned with Narvaez, we actually have one left handed hitting catcher and one right handed hitting catcher on the roster this time, not two righties, right?

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 10:22 AM) Maybe someone could visit Pittsburgh, Houston or Denver? for what purpose? Lived in/near 2 of those cities the past year.

‏@ArdenZwelling 8h8 hours ago Gavin Floyd's back with the Blue Jays — He's been signed to a minor league contract with an invite to big league camp.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 08:17 PM) Abreu put up a .900 OPS the second half last year, and Fangraphs had him better defensively than Eric Hosmer. If no one wants to give up anything for him keeping him isn't a bad deal. That's because Eric Hosmer graded out as the worst 1b in baseball last year. Come on man, that's a terrible way to bury the lede. "Jose Abreu's defense was worse than Hanley Ramirez's" is equally accurate. I am a bit stunned to see Votto that low - he came out worse than Abreu.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 07:46 PM) I pretty much disagree with this entire post. His value is surely low, but to suggest a team wouldn't give up a low end top 100 prospect for him implies that no one will ever sign Trumbo or Bautista since they will require a 1st round pick. And to suggest 2014-like Abreu would generate a return described as not a "salary dump" is beyond ridiculous. That is not what I said. I said that if he were traded right now, it would basically be a salary dump - the return would be so small as to make trading him pointless. For him to not be that kind of trade, he would have to have a 2014-like first half. Someone will sign Trumbo, but I think there's a good chance Bautista stays in Toronto because no one will give up the draft pick for him given his age. For teams to sign these guys, they're going to get a discount, perhaps substantially below what Abreu is being paid or for a much shorter deal.

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 08:35 PM) Npt thinking we get Bregman but I could see the Sox still demanding him. Either way you have to think the Sox arent accepting a prospect package heavy offer from Houston either. Maybe Pittsburgh had made a much better offer. Either way showing the price of TB is great for Qs value. Based on what we've heard whispered, I think in every case Hahn is holding out for the top line guy in each system - Yankees, Astros, Pirates - and just waiting for one of them to blink.

If Jose Abreu had hit the free agent market this year he would not have signed yet. My guess is he'd get something comparable to the money he's likely to get in arbitration these 3 years as a contract - basically I think he'd get paid what he's going to be paid, except with a couple years guaranteed. I do not believe any team will give up any top 100 prospect for Jose Abreu. If he hits the daylights out of the ball in the first half and looks like 2014 Abreu he might become moveable again for a return that isn't "salary dump", but right now given the choice of signing Trumbo or Bautista or any of the other 1b/DH types, Abreu looks like he is at best fairly paid and not worth giving up any additional talent.

Today Paul Ryan stated that along with ending the Affordable Care Act he plans to de-fund Planned Parenthood nationwide. There's interesting data on this because in 2011 the state of Texas did something very similar to what Paul Ryan wants to do, and at the time including on this board we heard that other organizations would just make up the difference. It might have been missed last fall but during the Presidential Campaign a study came out showing that literally at the exact same time as the Texas Republicans did this, the mortality rate for women during birth doubled in a 1 year period. The researchers found no similar change in any other state at that time, noted that the deaths were concentrated amongst minority groups, and although they hesitated to state that the clinic closures were the only cause they noted that they had no other examples of a similar spike in women's mortality during birth due to anything other than "war, natural disaster, or severe economic upheaval". This is only deaths during birth, not due to any other type of screening offered by those facilities that were shuttered. Based on the 400,000 live births in 2014 in this state, this is roughly 360 deaths of women during birth due to that spike in deaths. Texas's rate of deaths of women during birth is comparable to, and in 2012 worse than Mexico.

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 07:48 PM) I think the white sox are adamant that Bregman is included. And it is Bregman who is the "MLB" piece that Luhnow balked at not Musgrove. Outside of getting a longer shot in the bigs last year, Bregman is no different than a Moncada level player that we got for Sale. And everything we heard is that Hahn wants a Sale type return for Q (albeit w likely more position players than pitchers). So I think Bregman/tucker is the ask similar to Moncada/Kopech and the last couple pieces will be negotiated fairly quickly if Luhnow comes around to the first two. If he wouldn't for Sale, I don't think he will here either.

QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 12:34 PM) There was a bad guy with little swarmy ships and he didn't like the Federation for some reason. Also he took some artifact that was gonna disintegrate the mega space station. FWIW, the general plot was unremarkable at best, but if you enjoyed the series the one thing they totally nailed were the interactions between the crew and that was redeeming from a fan's perspective. Not a great film, but not the worst of the series.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 05:50 PM) I never said the roster constructed was good and I don't recall saying we should go after Wade, I believe I touted that since we got Wade, I hope it is a sign that we can recruit and he can help us recruit. My view for things to work is we do need to get one, if not two, good size free agent signings over the course of the next two years (ideally, another one next season). But I also said we couldn't be a total dumpster fire this year, as that could really hurt the odds of signing a free agent. I do think it will be interesting to see what the Bulls do with some of the guys who probably aren't back next year (most notably Niko and potentially Taj) as they'll need to ensure they have cap space. By the way, another way to think about things is this, with Butler here, my view is you are an option for big name Free agents. Without him here, you aren't an option until you develop a new star who free agents would want to play with. Exhibit A is the Lakers. They are probably one of the most desirable locations for any FA, yet the past couple off-seasons, when they had zero proven talent (outside of a retiring Kobe), yet tons of money, and all they have done is whiff. Instead they had to spend their money on Deng & Mosgov for pete sake. So remember, if you trade Butler and blow it up, you are going to be forced to build through the draft, because the free agent route (to find additional stars) isn't going to be available. Now if people don't want to play with Butler...I'll take it all back (and we should dump him), but Wade seems to be helping Butler and it certainly seems like Butler has grown tight with quite a few guys he played with on team USA. His personality is the anti-rose too...so I very much could see Jimmy's personality and dynamic being a very valuable asset when it comes to recruiting. Did anyone notice how many times he and Kryie were joking with each other during yesterday's game? So like you said, we've done everything we could on the "make this a destination landing spot". We're now going to be judged on whether or not we hit. If we don't...well then we'll have held and blown Jimmy's best years. It's really that simple. We're all in on this being a FA landing site.