Balta1701

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 04:40 PM) If I'm the Sox, I sign every pitcher like Gavin Floyd that I can find. They're low risk, high reward, and cheap. Hell, I'd sign 6 or 7 veteran pitchers to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training and maybe one of them finds their way onto the big league team if they have a solid spring training. If they bust, fine. Just release them before the season starts. There's no risk from the Sox perspective. At least that's what I'd do. I think they'll have to pick up a couple. It's not like Charlotte's Rotation is anywhere close to full. That alone will force them to spend some money on a guy or two.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:39 PM) Adam Gase is reportedly expected to leave the Bears to become a head coach, as he figures to have several offers This really isn't surprising, but he has been passed over before.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:44 PM) Shockingly, the East has been much better than the West. As of like 2 days ago the conferences had a head to head record that was even at ~85-85. While thats a huge change from last year, it wasn't "the East Much Better".

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:01 PM) Gavin Floyd to me is the starter version of Jesse Crain. The setback is coming, but spring training fluff would make it seem like he could win 15. It wouldn't cost anything, so I wouldn't be surprised it happened, but would be very surprised anything really came of it. Isnt that the role we had Brad Penny in last year?

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Dec 30, 2015 -> 03:51 PM) Watch all this happen. Colts win with Josh Freeman at qb. Andrew Luck returns for playoffs. Colts win Super Bowl. Which one is the last one to happen chronologically?

QUOTE (BigEdWalsh @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 12:55 AM) I've talked quite a bit with my son about the Warriors' chance of breaking the Bulls 72 wins record. All it takes is an injury here an injury there and poof! There goes the chance. There's still the chance of course. But, as the season wears on that likelihood is bound to get slimmer and slimmer. Well they're at 2 losses by the end of December. Other way to look at this? They have to lose less than 2 games per month. For rest of the season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 12:37 AM) Arbitration is based on comps to other players. What 4th year players have deals in the $15 to $17 million range, or even $11 million, that Abreu could use to get that sort of a number in a hearing? The highest ever first year arb number was $10 million, for Ryan Howard I believe, so blowing past that number like 8 years later seems entirely reasonable. Furthermore, the contract for the previous year isn't "forgotten" in arbitration - they do take into account the guy's previous year salary based on everything we've seen.

Does anyone want a translation for what an IRMS measurement means in English?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 27, 2015 -> 05:38 PM) I didn't think that they started the blood baseline testing. I thought they just added blood testing for HGH. If they did add the blood baseline testing, then that's all they can do at this point with the current technology. If they just added the blood testing for HGH, they are still testing for specific PEDs and can get fooled by new designer PEDs they do know to look for. This is what I got with a quick googling and this is all I know about that you're able to do; baseline testing plus isotopic measurements. If you know of another technique or you know how a setup could fool the IRMS measurement I'd be interested to hear it.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 27, 2015 -> 04:44 PM) Until they change the testing requirements, it really won't matter. I'm sure there are many players taking untestable PEDs. Unless someone rats them out, no one will know. What additional things does MLB need to test for? Did they not start the blood testing/tracking a couple years ago that was the olympic standard?

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Dec 27, 2015 -> 03:46 PM) Which means if he has another good season in 2016 the Sox better be prepared to give him a MAJOR raise because he'll certainly opt out and force the Sox to renegotiate. Something to keep in mind regarding the payroll for 2017 even though Danks and LaRoche will be off the books. Mark Although there's no real precedent for a guy like Abreu hitting arbitration 3 times after starting with a $10 million contract, I think we can make some reasonable educated guesses. Typically we see guys in their first arb year jump by $5 million, maybe slightly more but not hugely more. The largest 1st year arb settlement ever was $10 million, but Abreu will already be making that in 2016. Contracts don't go down in arbitration, so we can guarantee Abreu's team will submit a number much above $10 million. Given that there's zero precedent for a "first year arb player" making $20 million, if I had to guess where Abreu's team would submit a number, it would be in the range of $15-17 million - giving him a raise of $5-7 million over his 2016 salary. That's a number they could conceivably win at. If they submitted in the $20 million range for a first year arb player, matching the biggest arb raise ever and also breaking every record in the book, you've got to think they'd lose that case. The White Sox would probably counter with something lower than that. Since there's no precedent for a guy making $15 million as a first year arb player, basically any number the White Sox submit could be something they could win with as long as they don't submit $11 million. The White Sox, of course, never go to actual arbitration with players, so before it gets to the actual hearing they will settle for something in-between, most likely a 1 year deal but possibly they could just guarantee Abreu another $50 million through 2019 to be done with it. Hence, I think a reasonable number they might come down to is somewhere in the $14 million range. Probably not much lower than that, probably not much higher than $15 million. I'd think that given the lack of precedent for his contract, a "$4 million per year jump" wouldn't be an unreasonable mid point. I could of course be underestimating this, but IIRC the league has the option to fire the arbitrator if they feel they've done something totally unreasonable and the league's franchises won't want to totally rewrite the first year arb precedents. My guess at a rough estimate is that Abreu's salary goes something in the range of 2017-$14 million, 2018-$18 million, 2019-$22 million. Maybe there's a million dollars wrong on either side, but if you want to estimate the full team payroll, that's not going to be so wrong that you'll have a bad estimate.

Jose Abreu originally signed a 6 year contract with the White Sox. That 6 years would cover enough service time for him to become a free agent normally. As it stands right now, Abreu is under contract with the White Sox for 4 more years. His salary for 2016 of $10 million is fully guaranteed. HOWEVER: Abreu has the right to opt out of that contract each year starting next year. If he opts out of that contract, he Does Not become a free agent; the White Sox retain his rights and would be able to offer him arbitration. Thus, if he opts out next offseason, the White Sox would still retain his rights for the next 3 seasons if they chose to offer arbitration each of those years. He would only become a free agent if the White Sox chose to non-tender him after one of those seasons. The reason Abreu would do that opt-out starting next year is that there's a good chance he will make more in arbitration next offseason than he would based on his current contract. It would sacrifice "job security" but someone would still offer him something close to what he's under contract for in whatever crazy scenario involving injury you can come up with. The White Sox have Abreu's rights for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. His salary in 2016 will be $10 million. Assuming he doesn't completely fail next year or get massively hurt, he will opt out of his deal and you can expect his salary to go up somewhat from that amount, probably closer to $14 million ish give or take in 2017, followed by moving upwards to >$20 million by 2019. He will then be a free agent after 2019, assuming no additional contracts are signed.

Anyway, number of players who have a qualifying number of at bats in center field in both years 2014-2015: 2. Eaton is therefore also #2 in terms of qualifying CF in the AL in 2014 in basically every single stat, because there's only 1 other guy.He's #2 in 2b, runs, hits, HR, RBI, SO, BB, Average, OBP, and Slug. The other guy is just pretty good, but we've also excluded "all other baseball players".

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 09:24 PM) The thread is about OPS+. The bizarre thing is you say the thread is bizarre and list WAR the first post after the original. When I originally posted that the headline said WAR. It has since been edited, thus making me look bad. D'Oh.

This is a bizarre thread. Are the white sox particularly unusual in having only 1 player playing CF while most teams switch their CFs out? Because I simply sorted teams in the AL by WAR in CF, the stat listed in the thread title, and found the White Sox overall CF is in the bottom 1/3 of the American league over 2014-2015 and looking particularly mediocre with Eaton Team WAR Angels 16.6 Royals 15.1 Rays 14.6 Red Sox 9.8 Astros 8.7 Yankees 8.1 Orioles 7.9 Indians 7.9 Blue Jays 7.4 White Sox 6.6 Athletics 5.5 Rangers 5.4 Tigers 5.1 Twins 5 Mariners 0.4

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 08:24 PM) balta mention mencoln .... but that is 51 saves. i don't see them having a replacement for him... i think he can't be traded. They have Tony Watson, one of the best setup men in baseball, who could take over that spot if Melancon was traded.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 08:06 PM) i know, neither am i, esp when they are wanting contract into the 35+ yrs of age , area.... Then it also made no sense for them to acquire several guys who pencil in as a FA in 2 seasons. Because if they're going to acquire that guy, they need to win the division this year, and the FA market next year doesn't set them up to fill in any holes that develop. If they can't field a competitive team this year (and they can't), then that move again sets them up for continued long-term failure.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 08:02 PM) oh don't get me wrong, i am in agreement there. but we are talking about pitt and their need to make the playoff and make money. in mlb trade rumor, and i went back to thanksgiving and i can't find that stupid article where, the writer wrote, that if they were to move marte, it would solve their holes. they were talking about a young sp, and other pieces. they will need. but it was all up to pitt and their FO. however since other teams got stronger, i just don't know. i still seeing them getting a fa'sp ..... they have toooooo , in order to keep up with the other 2 teams in the division. btw, they got a great group of players ready to start knocking on the door. I could still absolutely see them moving Melancon to look to the future given that the division has 2 other extremely strong teams in it, they pencil in as much better in 2017 than in 2016 already, and Melancon is a free agent after 2016. However, Marte is under team control through 2021 with an incredibly team friendly contract. He may very well be more valuable than Chris Sale. At the very worst he is comparable in value to Quintana. They'd be silly to move him and in Pittsburgh there has been literally zero talk of moving him. It's the exact opposite of the way the Pirates have behaved.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 07:54 PM) nice catch.... i was wrong. with all the crap going on, i screwed up. so that mean pitt is or should be in the market for a sp.... the domino chips are still falling..... and for those who came late, i said, since the northside team really improved themselves, it is forcing other teams in that division to do the same.... esp those who are already committed. Pitt seems unlikely to be in the market for a SP at a high price given that they're going to want to leave 2 rotation spots for the 2 pitchers they will hope will start the season at AAA. They've acted exactly that way this offseason; they have Cole for several seasons and Liriano for 2 more years as their 1-2, they have then tried to fill in the middle part of their rotation with Neise and Vogelsong. They've done the thing that they've done every single year; try to build a team with someone appropriate at every spot and then hope that some of their guys overplay what they're paying for, which works for them because they have built a very strong roster around those guys. It's the same strategy that has gotten them in the playoffs the last several years.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 07:48 PM) i agree and that was what i was still trying to point out. they will be in play for a sp, but that was taken care of today..... but not earlier when i posted my comments. now... that nl central is one tough division. i really don't know if leake will give the pirates what they are hoping for. Leake signed with the Cardinals?

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 07:25 PM) Indiana robbed Pretty much sums up our season. One stop, somewhere, anywhere, and we could have beaten 5 teams.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 07:37 PM) What is a late first round pick worth? If these guys were free agents, they'd be getting $10MM? $20MM? A late 1st round pick, on average, is worth 1-2 fWAR over their full careers. On average, teams are paying $6-7 million per fWAR. So, if you could simply sell a first round pick right now, with no context about the player or the strength of the draft or development or anything else, a pick in the range of 25-35 right now would be worth about $8-10 million.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 07:19 PM) in a way, i implied it in my post, but that is beside the point, pitt has said as much, they wanted someone to bridge the position for their prospect who may be a yr away. that was why i kept mention laroche to pitt in my mock trades. but if pitt is having some so called problems with marte and what he might make next yr, i didn't think they, pitt will accept laroche. again like you said, unless they sweeten the pkg. which they didn't . anything else on this front was included.... later ..... lets not loose the point of my post.... i was congratulating blacksox13 for a nice post and mention there still may be another team in play, and that is pitt and well look at the post. btw after the fact, leake was signed by pitt...... which i said they needed another sp...... and it is my fault for reacting to some posters who is always doing this kind of s***. i should have know better. They "ALREADY SIGNED SOMEONE THIS WEEK AND DECLARED HIM THEIR 1B." That's what you're ignoring. Here is the statement of their GM: That happened several days ago yet you're still talking about them as though they have need of a 1b to bridge to their prospect. They already signed that bridge. The conversation should be over yet on Dec. 26 you still brought them up, while simultaneously either ignoring that signing or not knowing about it.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 07:06 PM) i know, but some how someone posted about bell. if you look at my org #69 i said just that. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...97784&st=60 Pitt did exactly what you might expect a smart team to do with a 1b prospect who is 1-2 years away. They spent a small amount to cover a platoon this year at 1b on a guy who hasn't got a lot of 1b experience but put up a .380 OBP last year. 2 years, $8 million. Less than what the White Sox wanted the Pirates to take on for LaRoche this year, and the Pirates got a guy who performed a lot better. Jaso and Morse give them a 1b platoon with some tolerable performace at the back side of their lineup this year, then Bell steps in either in the 2nd half of this year or to start 2017 along with Jaso. White Sox wanted them to take on salary with LaRoche but wouldn't give them anything to make it worth it, so they signed someone cheaper who performed better and was a better fit for their roster. No one here pointed out that Pitt no longer is in the 1b market, so I did. If you DFAd LaRoche and he cleared waivers, they might still offer him a minor league deal with an option to ST, but they're not in the market for LaRoche any more and should no longer be mentioned with his name. If you included Tim Anderson and asked them to pick up $10 million, they might do that.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 26, 2015 -> 01:43 PM) Because you get all b****y when I post marvel related things in the film thread. It's still a marvel comic, they just can't use him in the movies Technically it's called the Marvel Universe thread, isn't it?