NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Tex @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 12:52 PM) Flowers instead of AJ next season is a major enhancement for those people who care more about the Sox making money than winning games. Straw man. No one fits that description except people financially invested in the team.

As one of Donny's biggest fans on the board, this makes me sad, but its clear he doesn't have a place with the Sox. He seems like a very bright, very athletic, solid defensive catcher who handles pitchers well and works his rear off. I'd imagine he'll find a AAA slot somewhere else, and may even still become a backup major leaguer somewhere. Best of luck, D Lucy!

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 08:52 AM) You're probably right on the gradually increasing since May numbers. My brain didn't catch that visual part. I will grant you that point. There have been steep drops in weekly UE claims repeatedly over the last 8 months or so, but each time it's been balanced out by unexpected increases. That graph is too small for my old eyes, but it looks like there is a general downward trend since August, with big fluctuations along the way. But its hard to say for sure if that is truly a sign of pushover or not, its probably too early to say. The general rate in the 3 or 4 week windows unfortunately hasn't changed much in the longer view, the entire graph. I think over the next 2-4 weeks, we'll see if the recent trend (Sept-current) is really a trend at all. I see a lot of harmony here between numbers. UE numbers with a slightly downward trend since August, jobs numbers upward trend since May, small biz data positive since May and bigger positive in past two reported months, and the major market indicies on a run since summer. That's a bunch of trends pointing in a good direction, I just hope it turns into something more.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 08:51 AM) Taking it a step further, this might be the trigger for trading Danks. Either they extend him and keep him around, or they try to extend him, fail, and use that as justification to trade him. That's what I was saying (maybe in the other thread) about this being the other motivation. You want to know now, what Danks' intentions are.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 08:34 AM) Here's what the "Private sector only" job numbers look like. Upon a 3rd look, it's relatively consistent with hovering at 130-150-ish/month since March, with public sector losses imposed on top of it. It's about enough to maintain 9.6% but not enough to push that number down or to increase the overall employment/population ratio. Pretty much constant, slow private sector growth and public sector job cuts since March. That's what, 8 months at that level? Oh come on now mr. stats, you pick March because it includes the one obviously aberrant number - the one unusually high spike. Do it from April, and its a clearly positively moving trend. You could go back to Jan, or to last year, and see the trend obviously moving upward. The curve is moving in the right direction, its obvious from the graph, and that's all I was pointing at really. Also, there was a steep drop in UE claims two weeks ago, then a return to previous the next week, which may or may not be a trend starter (next week will tell for sure). Look at that graph - you picked the one month out of two years to start your analysis that would result in the appearance of flat. Pick any other starting place since the bottom, and the trend is positive. This is the definition of cherry-picking.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 07:42 AM) The point there is that if he did extend him...he wouldn't be dealing him before the deadline this year. That's just not kosher. I think he works like any savvy investor - he makes the best decision available at the time (extending Danks is probably that), but after the fact, he does not hold onto that asset out of anything other than continuing value proposition. If trading him a month later makes sense at that time, he won't hesitate. But really, if he's extended, he'd have to be blown away by an offer to trade Danks.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 07:50 AM) In reality, there are 2, maybe 3 magic bullets that will fix everything in one fell swoop. 1. Medical costs grow at the rate of inflation rather than at 10% annually. 2. Getting the economy back to normal rates of employment and growth 3. (The maybe) letting the Tax cuts expire. If you care about the long-term deficit, you kind of have to care about #3. The Affordable care act took a slice out of #1, although there's still more to go. #2 doesn't seem to interest anyone making policy. #3...well, if you let them expire, by 2013-2014, the budget is balanced. LOL @ bolded. Seriously, every politician wants job growth, because no growth means their jobs are on the line. Its a question of how to do it, and an understanding that government can't be the creator of enough jobs to power out of a recession. It has to set the table for private industry to do most of it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 07:57 AM) Wow, a non-crappy employment number. Been a few of those lately. Plus some happy small business numbers. There are signs in the past couple months that maybe the recovery is picking up speed. But obviously its too early to say for sure, and it is certainly a delicate situation.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 05:05 PM) Anyway...signing a guy to an extension and immediately trading him...that'd seem like a major d-bag move if it actually happened. That's not the way KW works, IMO. Kenny is an options guy. He doesn't sign him with the intent of trading him - he signs him because its win-win either way, and it gives him two good options if he can do it. And if he can't... QUOTE (thedoctor @ Nov 5, 2010 -> 05:35 AM) good to hear, but i see this more as pre-trade maneuvering than anything else. ...you then have your answer.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 07:17 PM) I love how so many people completely ignore AJ's actual contributions in Major League Baseball and then talk about all the things Tyler Flowers is going to do. Opening the 2011 season with Flowers as the starting catcher is a major downgrade and a major disappointment and should be viewed as such. Now I love AJ, but I'd back Kenny if he went after one of the Angels' starters for example I'd back him if he made another move that made sense, any sense at all. Tyler Flowers does not make sense on any level in any universe. Hyperbole much?

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 03:53 PM) For the record, I am one of the voters for the FutureSox Top Prospect lists, and I haev tended to vote Morel higher than even others here. I like him a lot as a prospect. What I mean is, he wasn't some first round pick that was expected to skyrocket, and yet, that's basically what he did, so I am puzzled by the strange write-up context.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 03:49 PM) MLBtraderumors is saying the Sox are trying to extend Danks now to a long-term contract. Great, so now we are going to have even less money going forward. I mean, as long as it's no more than $7-8M a year, I'll be content w/ it. Might actually make him more tradeable, if the money is affordable in relation to likely arb numbers and includes 1 or more free agent years.

Markets up big today, S&P 500 over 1220 for the first time since mid-2008.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 03:31 PM) Fox News running with the story. Shocking. The first half is dedicated to how lavish and expensive the trip is. The second, to everyone who would possibly have a clue refuting it. "Fair & Balanced" If you want your brain to hurt, read the comments. It is now a fact that Obama is spending $200M a day to go to India in the conservative world. Pentagon spokesman FTW...

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 02:54 PM) And Brent Morel's bat didn't improve either apparently Yeah, seems bizarre, he was a guy that no one really expected anything big out of, and yet he did well in AA, mid-season promoted and did even better at AAA, and then made it to the majors, all in one season.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 02:40 PM) Wasn't just the blagosphere, now it's in the cable news and conservative radio echo chamber, having accusations made by a sitting member of Congress. It is now Truth in those circles, and even when corrections come out, they are never noticed. The lie remains firmly in place. Just so absurd. I mean, the number is silly on its face to any thinking person. Hell, even if its 3000 people and 40 plances (which it may or may not be), the variable costs associated with the trip still shouldn't even be on that order of magnitude.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 02:12 PM) For those looking for a WH response: No doubt about that. I personally think it may not have been even worth responding to, but since the blogosphere has a hold of it, I suppose they had no choice. Should have been obvious it was a ridiculous number. QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 02:13 PM) A user comment in the article I linked: $4.5M sounds about right.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 01:26 PM) Wasn't that feedback from 2009 regarding his performance in the Southern League? I haven't read anything like that about his defense from this past season. Also, I was most surprised about them calling Jared Mitchell an overdraft based on his tools. That doesn't make any sense to me. Yeah that was odd as well. The list overall seems poorly researched.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 01:17 PM) Yeah, and? The two statements support each other. There is no contradiction. You wrote two sentences. One said emotion has nothing to do with playing baseball effectively. The second one said emotion effects playing baseball effectively.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 01:03 PM) Employee Free Choice Act is also off the table for a while. Not sure it was on the table the past two years even. Sounds good to me.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 12:50 PM) I will guarantee that no energy bill that isn't ridiculously friendly to coal, oil and gas and does nothing to price or otherwise curb carbon emissions and lacks any real funding for alternative energy sources* gets passed. *They may push for nuclear funding, which I'm in favor of, but not at the expense of ignoring/denying the real problems we face. Cap and Trade is definitely off the table for the next couple years. But I can easily see other things going on in an energy bill that makes allowances for oil and gas, but also puts money into alt energy.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 12:40 PM) i would argue it's in the GOP's best intrest to stonewall Obama. There is no stonewalling Obama - its Obama that would do the stonewalling, as he is the last stop along the path. The House is now Republican. And I see no win in doing that. If the GOP takes that path - spending all their time posturing and not actually passing any legislation - then they are in trouble in 2012. The GOP can make themselves look good here by making changes to health care, but keeping all or virtually all of the Bush tax cuts, and by cutting spending where they can. They need Obama to do that. Obama can look good here by holding onto at least parts of the health care bill, and getting an energy bill done, etc., and he needs the GOP to do that. If nothing gets done, the party that just swept the election will be seen as a failure.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 12:38 PM) Given how many Republicans painted Democrats, and Obama in particular, as evil commie socialists bent on destroying 'Merica! with their evil, godless liberalism, how do you think they can actually back off of that hyperbole and actually work with the Obama and Democrats (assuming the Dems won't just cave as usual to Rep demands). You and Balta still with the short memories. Do you not remember 1994? There was a lot of anger specifically directed at Clinton. And yet, things worked out for the better after the fact. I am not saying that necessarily will happen here, but I think there is a decent chance it might. It really depends on Obama and Boehner, more than anyone else, at this point. McConnell is still a minority guy in the Senate, he's going to scream and yell anyway, that's what he does.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2010 -> 12:32 PM) Frankly, I think I disagree here...and I think that Boehner/McConnell have made it quite clear that they do as well. ""The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president." See my post in the other thread. Boehner has said nothing of the sort - that was McConnell. And at this point, I am not so sur they belong that/close together. I think another dynamic will play out here. See, if the GOP, or Obama for that matter, try the fighting route here, not only will they lose every effort, but they will lose support from a frustrated public who wanted something done. No one wins if these people just yell at each other over a brick wall, including them.

Well, this is interesting. Obama speaks today and is indicating open doors (though we'll see if he means it). Boehner yesterday was a little more direct, but still talked a lot about working together. However, apparently Mitch McConnell has other ideas. Like, repealing everything and getting Obama out of office. This puts Boehner in a very tough spot. He's got a senior guy in his own party now actively antagonizing the President. Does he follow suit, or try to extend an olive branch and take up Obama's offer?