NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 04:05 PM) Except that the lowest rungs aren't going to pay in enough to cover the costs for their benefits. Im going to disagree with you here. As I understand it, SSI is paid in at a flat rate, up to an annual max (hovering somewhere around the 100k income mark, last I checked). Further, the benefit payout schedule is based on how much is paid in, so it slides on the same sort of scale. Therefore, this is really not an issue. There are all sorts of other services that WILL have problems due to this - SS is not one of them.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 03:31 PM) Actually a number of illegal immigrants pay into the system now, tot he tune of $7-$8 billion a year. However, the key point there is...2k5's argument is that if we were to legalize current illegal immigrants through any fashion, Social Security costs would go up. The reality is...yes costs go up, but so do incomes, and the benefit of cutting the retirees/workers ratio winds up winning. Thanks in part to the Reagan amnesty and in part to the fact that crossing the border as a 65 year old and then working hard labor is pretty difficult...the current crop of illegal immigrants isn't exactly an elderly bunch. And on this particular note, I agree with you - for those becoming legal, social security is not a concern to me.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 03:24 PM) We have BEEN hit 55 times (2nd MOST in baseball) We have HIT someone 24 times (2nd LEAST in baseball) About 30 of those times we have been hit are to just two of our hitters.

QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 03:22 PM) Wouldn't it be Elvii? Only if the singular was Elvus.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 03:22 PM) Is it just me, or does it seem like we have been hit at least 2-3 times MORE than we hit people? I swear, we got hit like 4 times in this series, and hit none of them. Then i noticed against the Cubs we got hit 5-6 times, and only hit like 1 of them. Before we all get overly defensive about it, keep in mind that this Sox team has the two league leaders in that category, both of which have been that way during their careers.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:56 PM) No way they're getting that high. They're at 26,400 right now. They'd have to average 31,500 to get to 28ish. There's still series at home against the Orioles and Royals coming up, along with 3 final games against the Indians. I'll bet, as long as they don't plummet in the standings, they average right about that: 30-33-ish. You've got series against MIN, BOS, NYY, DET. They just averaged right around that this past series, and the DET series this weekend has only a few sets left for Sat-Sun.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 03:18 PM) I figured he must be banged up. Love him or hate him, we desperately need his stick. He hit that big homer the other day. Am I a bad fan for not liking the 1-2 punch of Pierre/Omar despite the stats pointed out to me they both are great? lol wut? Can we stay on one topic?

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 03:16 PM) Lol, obviously there would be no illegal immigration problem if everyone became a citizen tomorrow. But that's not reality. Then we'd have other problems.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:52 PM) Really? Please provide the specific quote of where I say "if you think X, you are Y", please find anything even remotely similar to that. OK, here it is, from your very own post: Read that again. You are saying THE PURPOSE of it is to keep out "undesirables". You are also saying "THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN A PRETEXT FOR RACISM". So, as I said, you pretty much said that anyone who feels this way is a racist who wants to keep out the undesirables. As you love to say, you made my case for me. Fortunately, I am familiar with your methods in here, so I won't make a big deal of it. But you did indeed accuse me of being a racist because of my views. Its so far from the truth that I really just have to laugh.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:45 PM) For some actual numbers, I'm going to turn to the Social Security trustees report. What they calculate in terms of immigration numbers is...when you increase the number of legal immigrants, even if they are lower income folks, the fact that you're decreasing the ratio of retirees to total workers wins out substantially. The lower life expectancy (and life expectancy at age 65) of immigrants also kicks in there. Their numbers for legal immigration was 1-1.1 million for the last decade or so, with a drop over the last year or two because of the collapse. Bringing the working population into the legal fold significantly helps the ratio of workers to retirees. LEGAL immigrants. Ones that actually pay into the system. And Soc Sec isn't the big cost I'm worried about anyway - its taxed regressively, and benefited along the input curve, so that's not where they worry is. At least not for me.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:51 PM) He's been hit by 3 pitches in 2 days and has been struggling a lot with the bats lately. Seriously, he's played a bunch lately, gotten HBP a few times, had a couple plays running out hits at first where he hit the ground... this is just a day off for him.

On the attendence thing, keep in mind the Sox will probably finish the season averaging 28k-ish, give or take. In the late 90's they were averaging like 17k, near the bottom in baseball. Early 2000's, low 20's. Post-2005, our bad seasons put us at like 27k, and mid-to-upper part of MLB. Attendence for Sox games has its ups and downs like most teams, but on both a total and relative basis, things are dramatically better over the past decade. This is a non-issue.

QUOTE (Bruce_Blixton @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:38 PM) Hi everyone, first let me thank all of you for forming such a comprehensive and detailed resource to keep up to date with the minor league system, it's one of the, if not THE best, fan-operated minor league forums around. So to you guys. Wanted to get your guy's opinion, with Escobar's sustained success so far in AA, would anyone else like to see him get a September call-up to get some one-on-one mentoring from Vizquel? I mean, what couldn't a slick fielding, switch-hitting SS learn from Omar, right? Welcome to the board! The mentoring may indeed help, but even with his success in AA, I still get the feeling he's not nearly ready to hit big league pitching. So it may not be a good move just yet.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 12:52 PM) It's pretty good but not great IMO. Just look at our division or league record this year. I intentionally didn't use the word "great". I said "pretty darn good". Or I could say, "maybe enough to win the division". If we can do that, its all up for grabs, and our pitching should do well. But dammit, I would hate it if the team fell just short of the post-season, because I can't help but put most of the blame on KW/Ozzie for the DH disaster.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 12:27 PM) A lineup with Kotsay and Teahen in it? Ugh. How the hell are we a contender this year. Because other than the DH deabcle, this is a darn good baseball team.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:07 AM) frankly, if we are speaking economics, it doesn't bode well for anti-immigration. It doesn't bode well for anti-immigration, if by anti-immigration you mean seriously reducing legal immigration. And no one here is suggesting that, so, I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. Economics of course doesn't bode well for the other extreme either of course, which is what I was saying earlier. Using economics as the prime reasoning, you want your country to grow, and immigration can certainly help with that, if executed properly.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 10:10 PM) Which post are you referring to? He was talking about the 14a thread, for some reason he posted that here. He said multiple times that, basically, the only motivation for changing 14a was racism. Its the old "if you think X, you are Y" argument, its just a roundabout way of saying "you are Y".

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 04:50 PM) If you remove the rule, they cant break it anymore. So not only am I against changing the 14th amendment, Im for making it so that everyone can become an American citizen who wants to. Remove all quotas, remove all unnecessary restrictions, let freedom ring. When you open up the Immigration debate, you have to remember that there are people in the United States who strongly oppose the idea of restricting who can enter into our country. It would be amazing if the people of the United States could turn this on its head, and make it so that we allow everyone in the world a chance to have the freedom that so many of us take for granted. Freedom for all, not just for those of us who got here first. The phrase "economic catastrophe" comes to mind. The burden that illegals put on the system now is nothing compared to what you'd get if you flung open the doors like that. Your idea is nice in fantasy land, but here in reality, it would be a disaster.

By the way, you want to see a bad draft, look at 2006. Wow. One major leaguer on that list (Kanekoa Teixeira), and no one else who looks like they'll make it, ever.

The top of the last three drafts have been quite good... 2008 gave us Beckham, Hudson, Morel and D2. 2009 gave us some good results too, they just had injury issues this year that were big: Mitchell, Phegley, Thompson, Holmberg. 2010 has looked good so far, with Sale, and nice performances from Reed, Petricka and Wilkins Keep in mind too, that 2009 batch his a weird injury bug, but Mitchell and Thompson project to be back at strength later this year. I'd bet that a year from now, the system will look a lot better than you think, assuming we don't trade away a whole bunch more of the farm. There are also a couple other guys who were highly thought of that spent a year off on injury and are just now coming back: Nevin Griffith and Jose Martinez. I think the drafting and development were bad for a while, but under the new regime, things are looking up.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 02:20 PM) Definitely a hall of famer. He and Frank are two of the sure shots from the steroid era. um... Griffey?

QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 03:38 PM) I don't think 4 starts is enough to tell. I'm not saying I necessarily agree, just throwing out a reason why the odds might be what they are.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 03:05 PM) Yesterday's was at 47/53 in our favor and they had Perkins going. Figured Liriano would make it another close one. Except Liriano is bad at the Cell.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 02:26 PM) Wait a second...why do you get to conflate that both increased enforcement and lack of jobs are part of it? Increased enforcement could be doing absolutely nothing and if there are fewer jobs available due to the collapse of the construction industry. And you're suggesting "doing all those things"...can I assume this does not include "keeping the economy in the toilet for the next decade"? In response to your statement that I'm pulling numbers out of thin air...I think I can say the same thing about you. You're pulling out of thin air this notion that somehow there are cost effective things we're choosing not to do and that's why we're only getting 2%...but if we did those things in the way you want, suddenly they'd make a real difference. I think you're plain wrong, and I think that's as "out of the air" as any number I quoted, considering I can show the enforcement trends to back mine up. I'll give you the last word. That's why I didn't use numbers - I have no idea how MUCH difference it would make, and I don't know how MUCH of the decrease in illegals is purely economy versus fear of enforcement action causing business or alien behavior to shift. I guarantee they are both there, I just have no way of knowing the balance. You were the one who pulled out %'s, out of thin air.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 01:36 PM) And that extent...maybe 4-5% of them per year if we're really, really good...thereby doubling our current enforcement effectiveness...at a cost of what, say $30 billion, $40 billion a year? You say that we're somehow not doing those things in concert enough...but that's pretty much exactly what we are doing...heavy enforcement on the border, massive increases in workplace checks, increasing levels of ID checks for terrorism purposes, and still not a dent. And that still ignores the fact that the more you make immigrants suspicious of police...the worse of a crime problem you create. I don't think you're taking into account here how far we truly have to go. $20 billion a year and the only reason why we're even coming close to keeping up with the amount trying to enter is that the economy here has gone in the toilet. I'm starting to think I need to add "arresting immigrants" to "blowing things up" on my list of things where spending doesn't really count. You're just pulling numbers out of thin air now. No one, you or me, knows what % this will effect. And you completely ignore the broader point I was making - that you have to do ALL those different things, and the effect would go beyond the actual, direct enforcement. Also, remember recently, I posted an article showing that the level of illegals in the country had recently peaked, and was actually headed DOWN now? The main reasons for that are simple - lack of jobs, and the fear of increased enforcement measures. Less money, more risk, so they are headed out on their own. Your direct enforcement data won't show that.