southsider2k5

It is insane for thinking that no starter would fall below 4.47 and above 5.42 era if they pitched 200 IP.

I mean I obviously hope I am wrong and all because there would be no better way to jump start a rebuild than with two superstars, but I think people are being WAY too optimistic for something that would be contracts valued at something like half of the entire franchise value. I can see being optimistic on one of them. But both? That is too rich for my blood.

So factoring in JUST mathematics you are talking about 6.25%, and that is only if you assign equal 25% odds to each team, and not believe that NYY has higher odds with Machado, and that Harper has higher odds with LAD, Cubs, or Nats. At 6% we are talking 1 in 16 odds, meaning 15 out of 16 failures. Is the difference between 1 and 6% significant enough to really quibble over the odds not being very low? I'd say if I told you that 15 times out of 16 you would fail at something, the odds were very small of it happening. Again that doesn't factor in that the first signing will probably be big enough to make the second large contract not worth it to the team payrolls of the future, or that the teams who miss out will run up the bidding past a Sox comfort point even if we signed the first one.

I feel like this is some how of the math of Soxtalk is actually taking place right now.

Of course Sox fans first worry is ticket prices, lol.

What do you think the odds of the Sox signing each individually really is? 20%? 10%? Now realize that even if you take this as a pure mathetmatical equation and multiply the odds against each other, they are very small. Add in the payroll factor of the Sox probably not wanting to tie up half a future payroll in two players, and those odds drop even more. It really is that small.

It really is. The odds are very small.

This one I believe. But I also believe a lot of the White Sox stuff the last couple of days is also BS, such as our "contract offers" that have been going around.

There have been reports that they are negotiating with both, not anything credible that they are willing to sign both.

Think of it this way. If you are going to look at the White Sox as a future $150 million payroll team, you are talking about locking up something like half of the future payroll (somewhere between $60 and $80 million a year, or 40-53%) in two players. That means they would have to put together the rest of the 23 man roster on somewhere between $70 and $90 million. Even if you want to push the White Sox out to a $200 million future payroll, that still leaves you 30-40% of the future payroll locked up in two players, leaving somewhere between $110 to $130 million for the other 23 players. Is is possible to build a World Series team out of that? Sure. Do I see the chances as realistic? Not really? Do I look at the White Sox history and think it is realistic for them to tie up that much of the payroll between two players? No. Absolutely not.

If only we had stopped at the first row.

The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one. I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign.

Yes. There are their "tweets", and then next to that is "tweets and replies". The second one includes stuff where someone responds to a tweet directly, which is what that post looks like.

Yes it is. We are talking about 1% tops, probably a fraction of that to be honest.

The donation was on behalf of Toni Preckwinkle, so now comes the question, what did she know?

Keith Law went all in on him. Read the comments in the thread too.

You are the real MVP.

That?

The big problem is defining what credibility even is in 2019. Most of the replies are debating the value of the information and not what the information actually means.

Good. Get those picks.