Lillian

Ouch! That would really hurt.

Actually, that was one of his more cogent posts. It may not be what he intended, but it was good English. He clearly stated: "WE have outbid the cubs and dodgers by alot"

If Boras wants to get the Sox to bid against themselves, what is the one team that would prompt them to do that? Great negotiating tactic, by the agent. He knows how much it would sting, to have him sign with the crosstown rivals.

Putting aside the issue of whether, or not, it makes good business sense and would be a prudent course of action, I think that the following plan may be what the front office is striving to accomplish: 1) I still think that they are targeting 2020 as the beginning of their window of contention. They are trying to sign Harper and, or Machado, because this is their opportunity to get them. However, they will likely not fill out the roster, in order to compete in 2019. They will need a backup catcher and another reliever, but they are not likely to try to fill all of the holes, but rather wait for Kopech, Cease, Dunning and Robert, in 2020. 2) They won't be able to find out what they have in Lopez and Giolito, unless they let them continue to be part of the rotation. Therefore, it will likely be Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Nova and perhaps Covey, to start the season, with Cease coming on late. 3) They may be thinking that a big front loaded contract for the "marquee" star players will get it done, while still working for their long term plan. Perhaps something like $45 Million per year, per player, for the first 5 years, with much less in the later half of the contract. That could net them both players. 4) It would enhance their upcoming TV deal, and still not put them in an untenable financial situation. 5) It would satisfy the objective of keeping them both motivated, as they play for their opt out, in 5 years. 6) It would satisfy the fans, as well as garner terrific national exposure. 7) This year's lineup: Moncada, Machado, Harper, Abreu, Eloy, Palka, Anderson, Castillo/?, Engel ? 2020 Lineup: Moncada, Machado, Harper, Eloy, Palka, Robert, Anderson, catcher?, first base/DH?

I'm going to sign off, for the night and conclude by saying; If the Sox sign Harper, or even Harper and Machado, I'll be as excited, as the next Sox fan. Nevertheless, I question whether it's really a good idea. How's that for being conflicted? Sweet dreams fellow Sox fans. Maybe Santa will come early.

This team is going to have a lot of young players, many of whom we have reasonable expectations of becoming stars, in their own right. If in 2020, Moncada, Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, Cease and 1, or 2 more guys really blossom, they could just as easily fill a few holes with established veterans, on short term reasonable contracts. I'd be willing to wait, as a fan, but that's just me. I understand that many would prefer to just spend money and chase the "glitter" of a couple of marquee players. To each his own. It is an interesting debate.

Thank you for the clarification on the "Marquee Star Power" value. I'm persuaded that it would be a bad idea to pay too much for such an intangible and fleeting quality. In my mind, he either performs well enough to justify the money, or it's a mistake to award a record breaking contract, for off the field "BS," as one of you put it. By "well enough" I mean the kinds of numbers I stated. He shouldn't merely be the 34TH best player, or even the 15TH best position player, and "earn" the most lucrative contract in the history of the game. If ownership wants to spend the money, that's their business. However, that doesn't make it a wise decision.

I'm afraid that I don't quite understand what his "off the field" appeal is. I haven't watched him play much, but why is he the default "marquee" MLB player? Personally, Trout seems more like that player. Could Harper's status quickly change if he continues to have less than stellar years, while other emerging stars overtake him? Vlad Guerrero Jr. and a few other youngsters, look like they could become the new faces of the game. How ironic would it be if Eloy or Moncada became bigger "stars" than Harper?

Well, my question was whether, or not, you gentlemen think that those numbers are a reasonable expectation.

Admittedly, I'm not very knowledgeable about WAR, so let me put this in "old school" baseball stats. If Harper cannot realistically be expected to hit .275 with an OBP of .400 + and a Slugging % of 500+, with 35 to 40 doubles and homers, while driving in 100+ runs, he is not worth the kind of money that we are anticipating. Oh, and he needs to play at least close to an average corner outfield. Isn't that reasonable? If he can do that for the first 5 years of the contract, and they give him an opt out, after 5 years, that might make him worth it.

That's even worse than the stats indicated, which I provided in that post showing his ranking last year, in various offensive categories. The fact that Fangraphs' ranking is for the last 3 years is troubling. The question is; How much better than that can we realistically expect from him?

What would Harper's WAR have been, in the last few seasons, if he had been playing either first, or DH'ing?

Here's a problem with one team trying to sign both of them: How do you satisfy both of these enormous egos? Each will want the biggest contract. If it's two different teams, it's a little easier because you aren't responsible for the contract of the player, whom you are not signing. However, with the same team, you could see these guys wanting the "top billing". It's an old dilemma in show business.

Is there any evidence to suggest that Boras possesses such a sense of loyalty, or indebtedness?

This would be the wrong place to allocate the remaining financial resources and, or prospects, after spending a fortune on Harper. Pitching, pitching and more pitching!!!!

Why wouldn't the Sox urge Harper to let them know, as soon as possible, in order to give them a chance to seek additional players, and thus improve their prospects for a competitive 2019? That would certainly be in Harper's interest, if he is seriously considering coming to the Sox. A team that is already prepared for a post season run, and only needs to acquire one more piece, would not be able to legitimately make that plea, but the Sox have other needs. If the front office simply told him that they want to win now, and are willing to commit the financial resources to pursue additional players, it could be to everyone's advantage to wrap up their deal, as quickly as possible. I like that approach better than a "hard ball" tactic, such as; "Hey, here's our offer. If you don't take it now, we're moving on. We can't sit around and wait on you, at the risk of losing out on other potential acquisitions." In other words, there is indeed a legitimate reason to inject some urgency here, and urgency helps close the deal.

If they sign Harper, they will need to allocate a substantial amount of capital to acquire the needed pitching, both starters and at least one more reliever. Spending all of the money on two offensive players, without adequate pitching, is not advisable.

He'll be a free agent in 2020, so this is his "contract year". I always like that motivation. He had a down year, caused by his poor post trade numbers. His first half numbers with Baltimore were fine. Sign him to a one year deal, until Madrigal is ready in 2020. That would give him a chance to rebuild his value, for a big free agent contract. Let him play 2ND and give Moncada a year to get comfortable and competent at the hot corner. Sign Brantley to play one corner outfield slot, with Eloy at the other, if they can't sign Harper. Brantley and Schoop added to a line up of Moncada, Abreu, Eloy and Palka and you have a decent top 2/3 of the lineup. The bottom 1/3 would be Castillo, Anderson and Engel or Leury.

I agree that Yolmer "would be a very valuable piece," if used properly. He had a decent year, hitting from the left side, but he was useless against LH pitching. He is fine defensively, especially at 2ND, but the Sox have Moncada and soon Madrigal. Yolmer's value is probably best as a utility infielder.

Now that Avi is gone, the outfield is the place where the biggest hole should be filled. None of the youngsters are ready except Eloy. So, Eloy in one of the corners and, depending upon the defense of the anticipated acquisition, maybe Engel, or Leury in CF. For me, Harper checks the most boxes. He would fill the other corner OF slot, and provide the much needed LH bat. Without a big bat taking Avi's place, the outfield would be pretty weak, offensively, with only Eloy as a potentially big producer. To have cleared Avi from the roster, only to replace him with Delmonico or Palka, makes little sense. Palka deserves more opportunities, but not in the outfield. He should be destined for either DH or first base. I still think that Moncada should be given 2019 to adjust to his anticipated future position of third base, to open second for Madrigal, which seems to be the only really good spot for him, hopefully in 2020. Yolmer would be an acceptable "place holder" at the keystone spot, until Madrigal is ready. Add to those factors, the better star power and "character" of Harper, and for me, it's not even close. I still don't want Machado to be the "face of the franchise," for reasons I've expressed before and which many of you share.

Isn't McCann supposed to be a really good defensive catcher? I know that he doesn't hit, but could he be a serviceable back up, for Castillo?

Oh that's right, I almost forgot. Baines spent so many years as a DH, that I inadvertently left him off the list. Sorry Harold.

Magglio Ordonez and Jermaine Dye beg to differ, or should that have been typed in teal?

1) Narvaez was only going to be the backup catcher, this season, with Castillo getting most of the games. 2) I disagree that Omar will come back down to earth, with the bat. He made some adjustments, last season, and began to drive the ball, which complimented his already established good batting eye. 3) Our young staff can benefit tremendously from having a good defensive catcher, which Omar is not. 4) Both Zavala and Collins have a shot at taking over in 2020, but probably not this year. I had understood the Seby is really not very good defensively: "Zavala projects more as an offensive-minded backup than a regular. He shows strong leadership skills, but his receiving and blocking are still works in progress". 5) It would seem that the Sox should be able to find a reasonably priced FA back up catcher to share Wellington's load. I just hope that he's a very good defensive catcher and it wouldn't hurt if he hit left handed. 6) There is a chance that the Sox will select one of the two highly rated Collegiate catchers, with this year's #3 pick in the Draft. 7) I would guess that there will be another bullpen acquisition.

I like Avi, as a player and I'd love to figure out a way to keep him. However, he really was not last year's best Sox hitter. Both Abreu and Palka actually had better stats, AVG, OBP and SLUGGING. I expect him to be better, if he's healthy. However, he was not the Sox best hitter, last year.