Lillian

Admittedly, I'm not very knowledgeable about WAR, so let me put this in "old school" baseball stats. If Harper cannot realistically be expected to hit .275 with an OBP of .400 + and a Slugging % of 500+, with 35 to 40 doubles and homers, while driving in 100+ runs, he is not worth the kind of money that we are anticipating. Oh, and he needs to play at least close to an average corner outfield. Isn't that reasonable? If he can do that for the first 5 years of the contract, and they give him an opt out, after 5 years, that might make him worth it.

That's even worse than the stats indicated, which I provided in that post showing his ranking last year, in various offensive categories. The fact that Fangraphs' ranking is for the last 3 years is troubling. The question is; How much better than that can we realistically expect from him?

What would Harper's WAR have been, in the last few seasons, if he had been playing either first, or DH'ing?

Here's a problem with one team trying to sign both of them: How do you satisfy both of these enormous egos? Each will want the biggest contract. If it's two different teams, it's a little easier because you aren't responsible for the contract of the player, whom you are not signing. However, with the same team, you could see these guys wanting the "top billing". It's an old dilemma in show business.

Is there any evidence to suggest that Boras possesses such a sense of loyalty, or indebtedness?

This would be the wrong place to allocate the remaining financial resources and, or prospects, after spending a fortune on Harper. Pitching, pitching and more pitching!!!!

Why wouldn't the Sox urge Harper to let them know, as soon as possible, in order to give them a chance to seek additional players, and thus improve their prospects for a competitive 2019? That would certainly be in Harper's interest, if he is seriously considering coming to the Sox. A team that is already prepared for a post season run, and only needs to acquire one more piece, would not be able to legitimately make that plea, but the Sox have other needs. If the front office simply told him that they want to win now, and are willing to commit the financial resources to pursue additional players, it could be to everyone's advantage to wrap up their deal, as quickly as possible. I like that approach better than a "hard ball" tactic, such as; "Hey, here's our offer. If you don't take it now, we're moving on. We can't sit around and wait on you, at the risk of losing out on other potential acquisitions." In other words, there is indeed a legitimate reason to inject some urgency here, and urgency helps close the deal.

If they sign Harper, they will need to allocate a substantial amount of capital to acquire the needed pitching, both starters and at least one more reliever. Spending all of the money on two offensive players, without adequate pitching, is not advisable.

He'll be a free agent in 2020, so this is his "contract year". I always like that motivation. He had a down year, caused by his poor post trade numbers. His first half numbers with Baltimore were fine. Sign him to a one year deal, until Madrigal is ready in 2020. That would give him a chance to rebuild his value, for a big free agent contract. Let him play 2ND and give Moncada a year to get comfortable and competent at the hot corner. Sign Brantley to play one corner outfield slot, with Eloy at the other, if they can't sign Harper. Brantley and Schoop added to a line up of Moncada, Abreu, Eloy and Palka and you have a decent top 2/3 of the lineup. The bottom 1/3 would be Castillo, Anderson and Engel or Leury.

I agree that Yolmer "would be a very valuable piece," if used properly. He had a decent year, hitting from the left side, but he was useless against LH pitching. He is fine defensively, especially at 2ND, but the Sox have Moncada and soon Madrigal. Yolmer's value is probably best as a utility infielder.

Now that Avi is gone, the outfield is the place where the biggest hole should be filled. None of the youngsters are ready except Eloy. So, Eloy in one of the corners and, depending upon the defense of the anticipated acquisition, maybe Engel, or Leury in CF. For me, Harper checks the most boxes. He would fill the other corner OF slot, and provide the much needed LH bat. Without a big bat taking Avi's place, the outfield would be pretty weak, offensively, with only Eloy as a potentially big producer. To have cleared Avi from the roster, only to replace him with Delmonico or Palka, makes little sense. Palka deserves more opportunities, but not in the outfield. He should be destined for either DH or first base. I still think that Moncada should be given 2019 to adjust to his anticipated future position of third base, to open second for Madrigal, which seems to be the only really good spot for him, hopefully in 2020. Yolmer would be an acceptable "place holder" at the keystone spot, until Madrigal is ready. Add to those factors, the better star power and "character" of Harper, and for me, it's not even close. I still don't want Machado to be the "face of the franchise," for reasons I've expressed before and which many of you share.

Isn't McCann supposed to be a really good defensive catcher? I know that he doesn't hit, but could he be a serviceable back up, for Castillo?

Oh that's right, I almost forgot. Baines spent so many years as a DH, that I inadvertently left him off the list. Sorry Harold.

Magglio Ordonez and Jermaine Dye beg to differ, or should that have been typed in teal?

1) Narvaez was only going to be the backup catcher, this season, with Castillo getting most of the games. 2) I disagree that Omar will come back down to earth, with the bat. He made some adjustments, last season, and began to drive the ball, which complimented his already established good batting eye. 3) Our young staff can benefit tremendously from having a good defensive catcher, which Omar is not. 4) Both Zavala and Collins have a shot at taking over in 2020, but probably not this year. I had understood the Seby is really not very good defensively: "Zavala projects more as an offensive-minded backup than a regular. He shows strong leadership skills, but his receiving and blocking are still works in progress". 5) It would seem that the Sox should be able to find a reasonably priced FA back up catcher to share Wellington's load. I just hope that he's a very good defensive catcher and it wouldn't hurt if he hit left handed. 6) There is a chance that the Sox will select one of the two highly rated Collegiate catchers, with this year's #3 pick in the Draft. 7) I would guess that there will be another bullpen acquisition.

I like Avi, as a player and I'd love to figure out a way to keep him. However, he really was not last year's best Sox hitter. Both Abreu and Palka actually had better stats, AVG, OBP and SLUGGING. I expect him to be better, if he's healthy. However, he was not the Sox best hitter, last year.

Again, if they think that they are going to sign Harper, or even Brantley, neither of those two are viable options for CF. That means that the corners would be taken by the new acquisition and Eloy. Therefore, where would Avi play?

I think it's probably more like .280 - .290 with 25 homers, or .250 with 30 + homers.

A couple of points, which should be considered: When healthy, Avi is not a terrible right fielder. He has good speed and a decent arm. His exit velocity has been among the highest in the League. His 19 homers, in just 356 at bats, was on pace for a 30 home run season. Nevertheless, If they sign Harper, to play right field, and Eloy is going to be in Left, there really is no spot for Avi. If he were not going to be a free agent, at the end of the year, I would absolutely not favor simply letting him go. If they don't sign Harper, or someone else to play one of the corner outfield spots, and if he can be retained for $8 million, why not? Unfortunately, there isn't much time left to make an informed decision, regarding the unknown outcome of their quest for Harper, with the deadline to tender being tomorrow night. Seems like a bit of a dilemma. I wonder if Avi could be extended, at a reasonable price. Then he might be worth a gamble, as he could always be used as a valuable trade chip, or allow the front office to use some of their several corner outfield prospects, in trades. Of course, the problem with that scenario is, what if they extend him and then sign Harper? Where would Avi play, while building up his trade value? I suppose that Harper could try to go back to CF, but that has not proven to be a good spot for him. If they don't sign Harper, a future outfield of Eloy, Robert and Avi wouldn't look so bad.

Can anyone confirm that the pending TV contract will indeed be enhanced by better ratings and better performance, regarding this coming season, and if so, to what degree? Is there a way to quantify any correlation between such factors? How do such factors vary, from one team, to another?

My question is would you take Cano and that contract, even if you didn't have to trade anyone to get him?

I assume that you meant Robertson, not Davidson.

Here is a pretty good article on Happ: https://thatballsouttahere.com/2018/11/16/phillies-free-agency-profile-happ/

The debate over whether, or not, Harper could realistically be able to generate enough WAR to justify the kind of money, which we are discussing, is interesting. However, I'm more curious about the intangible factor of things like national exposure, product sales and competing for the Chicago fan base. How quantifiable are some of these considerations? Is it realistic to think that Harper could actually make a significant difference in the battle for Chicago's baseball market share?

I suppose that it all depends upon what he considers "stupid". Who knows, he might think that our suggestion of $400 Million is not just stupid, but rather Insane. Of course, Sox management hasn't suggested that they would go that far.