Dick Allen

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 12:55 PM) The advanced stats are a wonderful tool for compiling lists for fantasy drafts and other internet nonsense that doesn't ever matter in real life. In reality, fit is everything. If you're too right-handed, you need lefties. If you're too slow, you need some speed. If you're too one-dimensional in any manner on offense, you need to make the adjustments necessary to score in as many different ways as possible. The Detroit Tigers don't need more win shares up the middle, they need defense up the middle. The Minnesota Twins don't need to figure out the average worth of their home runs, they need to get some starting pitching. The Kansas City Royals might as well can every stat happy member of their FO if their s***ty owner isn't going to spend any money. Etc. Fit is absolutely everything & right now the Sox need a 3B that they can fit into their budget. They're pretty average IMO all across the board, better on the pitching and defense side of things, but the Sox overall don't appear to have an elite starting staff, an elite bullpen, an elite defense, an elite offense, nor are they exceptionally balanced, young, or cheap. Because of this there are several possibilities to consider. If they sign Youkilis then they need to make salary disappear from another area which weakens the team in another area most likely, and also, they still need to acquire a long-term fit (prospect most likely) since Youk isn't going to be more than a 2-3 year option. Youkilis provides some offense, but he's still not going to provide a huge lift unless he has a major rebound which you can't bet on, so if you sign him you still need to add a bat. Get Reynolds and it's the same thing, money and a short term solution, but the defense takes a major hit. The offense upgrades and the cost per year is much lower, and if you plan on Reynolds as a 1B/3B, you're still right-handed heavy, but maybe you can move Paulie or even possibly Dunn in the right deal, and save more cash. Maybe you bring in a little lefty in a platoon role and play him some at 3B and some in the OF or 2B as a backup. There are endless possibilities and I'm not advocating signing either Reynolds or Youkilis, I am just pointing out that *nowhere* in the process do you go all-out all the Bill James and start posting graphs all over the place like in that movie A Beautiful Mind where that dude puts s*** all over his wall because he's trying to catch up to the Ruskies or whatever. You just look at what you have in terms of a lineup, what your defense is, what your payroll situation is, what trade chips you have, etc. and you try to engineer the best possible team in as few moves as possible, because 8 trades and 5 signings in an offseason is really unlikely, but 3 trades and 2 signings could happen. You try to be realistic and you try to keep in line with the major goal of your offseason, which (should be) to either go younger and build a longer term window or contention, or win right now. Also, the home run is the best offensive stat ever. That's the best thing you can do as a hitter and it's value can only ever be equaled, i.e. a HBP with the bases juiced in the bottom of the ninth is just as good as a HR, but it's not better. That said, the HR isn't everything and you'll get into trouble building an offense that can't do much outside of that, but if you are talking about power hitters (and SLG is supposed to measure power/driving the ball) then there is NOTHING better than a HR. Adam Dunn, worst case scenario, collects votes and remains on the HOF ballot when his career is over. Napoli would be very lucky to hang on there long enough to reach year 2. There's no comparison. Both players have exactly 2 skills and that is it. Dunn's use of those 2 skills, both in 2012 and over his career dwarfs Napoli's use of his two skills. The only thing Napoli ever had on Dunn was the ability to call himself a catcher and compare himself to other catchers. He can't do that anymore because he's not good enough to stick there. Computers and cell phones are bad ideas too. I don't know what you have against advanced stats that can tell you even more about performance. Granted, no stat is unflawed, but you have written paying Napoli $13 million a year is stupid, and paying Adam Dunn $15 million a year is wise. Then you mention home runs. Over the past 3 years, Napoli homers more per plate appearance than Adam Dunn. Gets more hits, reaches base more often. I would think that is more significant than what happened 7 or 8 years ago.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 12:21 PM) I would be shocked if AJ is brought back at this point. He and his team want to capitalize on this last season and we simply arent ponying up the cash. The Sox are banking on his fear of going to a new clubhouse that doesnt know him as well as ours, not sure thats going to work. Only chance he's back here is on the cheap (market relative) They know they are playing on borrowed time with AJ. History suggests catchers fall fast, many at a younger age than AJ is right now. It is possible he will still be doing what he did in 2012 in 2013 and 2014. It is probably probable he won't at least one of those years. I just wonder what their ceiling is on a contract for him. I don't expect him back. Someone will pay up.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 12:13 PM) Hahn has indicated that 3B is the White Sox biggest concern. I imagine there's some leveraging going on there, but it doesn't make sense that you had two players at two positions who are free agents at your two biggest question marks with two questionable replacements waiting in the wings, yet you indicate you are happy with one position while the other is still a main concern. Except saying Flowers is ready to handle the load goes over a lot better than saying Morel is ready to handle it, or saying they are going to put Sanchez there. The White Sox have no clear best options internally to play 3B, while Flowers is clearly the internal choice at C. Hahn also indicated he was very comfortable with Gimenez as a back up. I'm pretty sure he will be getting another C, whether it is AJP or not.

QUOTE (YASNY @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 12:07 PM) He did mention that the Yankees carry insurance that would pay 70% of ARod's salary, so maybe ARod doesn't 'officially' retireso he keeps getting paid, but in fact is effectively finished. Sort of like Albert Belle.

I heard it was the other hip, not a re-tear. I wonder if his "one year" of steroid use has anything to do with it.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 12:01 PM) I noticed you substituted semantics for actually answering my question. No I answered it. If he performs and he stays healthy, his time would not be cut.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 11:54 AM) Hahn saying the team is not concerned with catcher tells me that Pierzynski is being shown the door. Possible, but he's certainly not going to say the opposite publicly. It would take any negotiating leverage he had away. If AJ still signed with another team, it would leave him with a catcher who knows the GM has zero confidence. It is strange we hear absolutely nothing about AJP negotiations with any team.

One thing we really don't know is what the White Sox payroll is going to be. They always say they are right against it. Sometimes they don't spend another dime, sometimes they add $25 million to the payroll.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 11:15 AM) But if he wants to get paid, AND play 140 games, which all indications are he does, why would he come back here. AJ has played 140 games or more exactly once in his career, and a several of those appearances were because he had to pinch hit or enter as a defensive replacement after a pinch hitter or runner for his back up. Don't make things up thinking you know exactly what AJ wants. And if he performs like he did last year, if he re-signed, why would his time be cut? It is all about how they think he will play the next couple of years and what it will cost, and what they really think about Flowers or someone else they could bring in. AJ has signed 3 or 4 White Sox contracts. If he was as hated or the distraction many make him out to be, he would have been gone long ago. His time may be up, and it might even be the correct move, but the 8 years he was here, the Sox got their money's worth.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 10:32 AM) Why would AJ come back here to take a diminished role? He would get paid, and would be somewhere he is comfortable. His role would only be diminished if his performance warranted it diminished. I just don't get where anyone gets the idea AJ tells management he's not taking a day off. I guess it is all part of the campaign to prove he is a tool. Throw out as much garbage as you can and see if it sticks. AJ has saved the White Sox at least 25 starts by back up catchers every year. If you look at some of his back ups over the years, that was pretty huge.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 09:15 AM) One of the many reasons that I do not believe that AJP will be brought back is the need to diminish his workload. AJP would almost surely balk at this notion, but for the betterment of the club it would almost have to be somewhere around a 100 - 60 game split over the 140 - 20 game split we've seen in the past. Even if AJP still feels he can catch every game I want someone else out there who is better defensively and at throwing. JMHO. I don't buy that. AJ doesn't make out the line up card. If they wanted him to rest more, he would rest more, especially at his advancing age. I think it is a budget thing as well as trying to project AJ's performance moving forward, and they feel, although I disagree, they have a capable replacement in house. IMO, Tyler is a good back up who is probably capable of playing 60-75 games a year. I think he will really get exposed if he ever gets anywhere near AJ's workload. Catchers take a beating, and it hurts them offensively, especially later in the season. Flowers hasn't experienced that at the MLB level.

If AJ came back and went 0-60 in spring training and Flowers hit .800 with 10 homers, AJP would be starting. The quote was probably phrased a little awkwardly, but it really was harmless. I like that Flowers thinks he should be a regular catcher. If he gets the opportunity, he will have to show it on the field.

Napoli got more for 3 years than the Sox paid AJ for 8.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 06:30 PM) "Looks like AJ will leave" Sox are perfect trade partners...makes too much sense...gavin floyd will be White Sox trade chip...blah blah blah Yeah, that was lame.

MLB Network is talking White Sox/Red Sox after the break.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 02:12 PM) And while I don't have anywhere near the time to prove it statistically, I would think that a high OBP would do more to create more consistency than a high AVG or low strikeout totals. I really think a lot of the Sox' offensive shortcomings that you are attributing to high strikeout totals and low batting average are really due to low OBP. In the past, yes, they really had not had the really high k guys except for Thome, before Dunn. I'm just saying if the Sox signed Reynolds and had Flowers playing every day with Dunn, that it would be even worse. They would leave a very high percentage of guys on base. I do agree, the OBP has to get higher, but if 3 guys combined for 600 ks, I'd venture to guess, the OBP could improve, but the amount of times scoring 4 or more may not.

QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:43 PM) So you think run consistency would be more important than total runs? How would you define that? KC the last five years, or so, is always near the top in batting average and has been top three least amount of strikeouts, and they are in the lower third in runs. It certainly isn't translating to wins. Minnesota has been very similar the last few years, with poor results. The Sox had the least amount of K's in 2010, with the 7th best batting average, and they were 21st overall in runs. OBP has a much higher correlation with runs scored than batting average or strikeouts. SLG% is a better indicator than both, as well. The argument isn't total runs, it's the game to game consistency of runs scored. If the Sox had a 3 game series and were going to score 12 runs, I'd much rather it be 4,4,4 than 10,1,1. Obviously, the more you score, the better chance you win. It seems though that the magic number, at least where the Sox are concerned, is 4. That is where they start winning more than losing.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:19 PM) 2012 team was shut out five more times, but essentially the same number of 0-2 run games. The problem with the 2012 offense was not having enough consistent OBP. Whether you do it with average or with a lot of walks, the Sox need more consistent OBP. Even Dunn's OBP, which was good compared to the rest of the Sox, was terrible by his standards. I do know the 2005 team won at least 2 regular season games 1-0, and won the clinching WS game 1-0. They had top of the line pitching. OBP obviously needs to improve, but if you had 3 guys combining for 600 strikeouts, there would be a heck of a lot of LOB.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:12 PM) Yeah right, nice catch there Rajai Davis. Dunn and Napoli both played in the Major Leagues during the following seasons: 2006 - Dunn was better 2007 - Dunn was better 2008 - Dunn was better 2009 - Dunn was better 2010 - Dunn was better 2011 - Napoli was better 2012 - Dunn was better Again, the past 3 years, Napoli has overall been significantly better. He even homers more often per plate appearance. I personally wouldn't want to give Napoli $13 million for 3 years, but IMO, it's better than paying Adam Dunn $15 million.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 01:04 PM) No, the problem is the way that people try to boil everything down to one or two special stats to try to evaluate an offensive player or a pitcher's overall performance level. Baseball is a beautifully complex game and the constant overuse of certain statistics just dumbs it down. And "adapt" why? Maybe I'll just starting listening to horses*** music and watching American Idol all day since that's adapting too. OPS is the simplest of the combination type stats where people take several different stats and try to make them all into one thing. This isn't special. It's not that difficult to look at the OBP number and the SLG number individually while taking into account the overall skillset of the player. Both Dunn and Napoli walk. Great. Both are also slow DP candidates whose walks can turn into double plays and force plays. Their walks only mean something when/if someone drives them in or if they drive in a run with a walk. To a lesser extent, working a count and taxing the pitcher counts too. Dunn has a career .370 OBP while Napoli's is .356. Dunn is better there but I'd much rather have both guys get on a .330 clip if it meant that good speed and baserunning skills came with it. The power is the only area where both players are special, since neither can defend well enough anywhere. Dunn has a career .499 SLG while Napoli has a career .507 SLG. If you look at SLG then Napoli is a better player, but he's actually not, since Dunn however hits the ball over the fence a lot while Napoliu doubles. This isn't rocket surgery. Hitting the ball over the wall is the greatest outcome any hitter can ever have in any at bat. Dunn's power makes more runs & he's a more dangerous hitter overall. There's no comparison between the two if you look at the players individually, but OPS says they're pretty close. This is why I hate these stats. They dumb down the game and really aren't worth the arguments. The worst is when people try to make comparisons between low power speedsters who get on a decent clip but steal bags with mashing K machines and in doing so completely ignore an entire element of an offense. So yeah, f*** OPS. You're apparently for paying players in 2013,2014 and 2015 based on what they did in 2005 or 2006. Why don't you look at their numbers the past couple of years, cover up the Adam Dunn poster on your wall, and tell me who is the more valuable player. If home runs are the end all, the past 3 years, Napoli has homered once every 17 plate appearances, Dunn, once every 19.9.

The other problem with signing Reynolds and putting him at 3B is he misses as many balls over there as he does at the plate.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:11 PM) The biggest problem with trying to talk baseball these days is the way people use OPS they way you do. WTF is OPS? f*** OPS, give me HRs. Naopli is a low batting average right hander who takes a walks and doesn't have Dunn's power. He's a poor man's Dunn and he doesn't defend well enough anywhere to justify his contract. He doesn't hit as many home runs, but he does get on base more often. I would think for a guy like Dunn who is the ultimate 3 outcome hitter, and Napoli who is very similar, OPS is probably exactly what you want to be looking at.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:02 PM) 3 years, $39M is a good deal for Dunn if he was a FA right now. Hamilton is a better lefty power bat, but who else is out there? There's not much, and the deal would be warranted given Dunn's track record. Napoli OTOH has what kind of track record? The Angels dumped him, the Jays dumped him, he had one great year in Texas hitting in a terrific lineup in a major hitters park, and that's it. He's mediocre and the contract is s***. The Red Sox suck and they are stupid too. Stupid Red Sox. It's almost like they never lost Theo. Mike Napoli has a lifetime .863 OPS over a 7 year career, but don't let the facts get in your way.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:56 AM) Salty sucks balls. Anything involving a backup catcher for Floyd is giving him away and that's stupid, especially since he's one of our best possible trade chips. Floyd can at least bring back a high ceiling A+ arm and a longshot position prospect with some potential. Salty and Flowers are pretty similar offensively except maybe Flowers walks and strikes out a little more. Interesting that they were originally brought up by the same organization. I really don't know why Floyd is considered a huge trade chip. He makes $9.5 million, can be a free agent in a year, and hasn't been all that good recently, including health issues almost annually. In fact when there were rumors of Floyd going to Boston last year, I think when the Youkilis rumors first started to appear, Jim Bowden basically said Floyd would wilt in Boston.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 11:53 AM) Really? Come on. Dunn is 2 years older and has 260 more career HR. Napoli had one excellent year his whole career, with everything else being far less than anyone should ever demand from a power position. As a catcher that's one thing, but obviously the Red Sox don't think he can catch much, and the Rangers probably aren't too fond of him there either, and obviously the Angels thought he sucked back there. The Napoli contract is a horrible deal. Dunn OTOH, for 2 years and as a lefty, is a much better contract by far. Dunn doesn't have a lot of value, but if the Sox eat a couple million per/take back a contract, and if they ask for nothing significant in return in prospects, that's a good deal for a team looking for big short-term power without having to give up real assets or forfeit a pick. If Adam Dunn were a free agent right now, I doubt he would get the contract Napoli is getting.