Dick Allen

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 09:55 AM) Ventura Volquez Kennedy Medlen Young Duffy Jason Vargas (back at midseason from TJ) Zimmer The one thing they do have is some depth now... I know you love random pulled out of mid air made up percentages, sothat clubhouse convo guy said Vargas has about a .1 % chance of pitching for the Royals this season.

$70 million guarantee plus the #24 pick for Ian Kennedy? Wow. There were a lot of these so called experts who thought Kennedy should take the QO. The Royals must have owed Boras one. Kennedy put up a 0.8 WAR last year. Danks put up a 1.8. Dan Jennings put up a 0.5.

According to fangraphs, Davis' WAR the last 4 years is 15.5, Cespedes at 15.4.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 08:04 AM) Honestly, without the Orioles in play, I think 5/$90M may be enough. Not sure the Sox would be willing to go 5 years, but I really don't see another suitor out there that would be willing to either. Unless he's willing to take a 1 year deal (which would be crazy coming off the season he just has), I think this puts the Sox in a great spot. Got to be willing to go 4 years though. I think the validity of the Baltimore offer to Cespedes has to be questioned now, but I was watching MLBN yesterday and they were asking ip the if you were Cespedes question would you sign for one year or the 5/$90 million. A couple of the non players thought about it, but every ex player said they would take the money.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 05:29 AM) For what it's worth Alexei hit .277 with a .325 OBP and 8 homers in the second half. He had shown signs of life after a catastrophic start. Even Hawk was calling it a salary drive. He was a bargain for a long time, but if they spend some money on a big bat, it would be hard to argue the decision to let him go.

Boras is making the commissions this weekend.

$161 million 7 years

QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 15, 2016 -> 03:13 PM) Which I dont quite understand but whatever. Its nothing I am going to be mad about being he hasnt been the player we have needed the past couple years. He will probably have even more of a fall off next year as well. With a $4 million price tag, to me it means the White Sox are planning on spending that money differently. If they weren't planning on a major financial addition(s) bringing him back for $4 million would be a no brainer.

QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 15, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) Can this be true. It's on the Twitter. By law, it has to be true.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 15, 2016 -> 12:28 PM) Well after Jesse Sanchez's tweet I think we can consider this whole thing dead. So in a nutshell, Cespedes is deciding whether to take the Orioles offer, which apparently the Orioles will offer if Davis turns them down or whether to take the Mets short term offer, which they haven't offered yet. Jesse Sanchez has been on this from the start.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 10:56 PM) Because that WAS the market December 23rd. A LOT has changed since then. If the rates were $125-150 million for Upton and Cespedes, clearly those would be longer than 3 years and questionable signs. It's when the money gets in the $75-100 million range over 4 years that the equation changes dramatically...not to mention all the opt-outs/options/clauses that teams are getting creative with, like the Scott Kazmir contract with the Dodgers. You can sign Cespedes to a four year deal with an extremely high probability he opts out after year 2 or 3, so, while technically a four year deal...it's also not one in actuality. At any rate, for Upton and Cespedes, if the rates are reasonable, I would be willing to guarantee a fourth year if that was the deciding factor, knowing the contract as structured made it likely the Sox would only have to pay them for 2-3 seasons. What has changed? Opt outs aren't anything new. Once again you back step. Now, what do you do if the Sox Sign Cespedes tomorrow? Complain about how much they spent and how they will be out of the free agent market 3 years from now. Everyone knows your act. Link us to something that says they would sign a reasonable 4 year contract with an opt out after 2. How do you know the Sox haven't floated that, how do you know they would sign it?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 09:16 PM) Also it sure looks like the Cubs overpaid for Zobrist and Heyward now Just read what caulfield wrote in the thread I bumped about Moore copying kW only doing it smartly. Just read #3, and read his comments here. They are the exact opposite.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 09:00 PM) Yes, because you have that "hometown" discount (see Buehrle, Konerko, Sale, Q) and flexibility with the structuring of the contract...you can then afford to go out and sign another starting pitcher to solidify your team for the two most critical seasons when you need to compete. Desmond and Fowler would make more sense signing late if you had them for team control for at least 2 seasons, if not 3. The reason for that is well-documented...what happened to Morales and Drew. Plus, that gives Desmond time to adjust to playing outfield in 2017 if that's the biggest need of the Sox...IF IF IF Saladino can actually hold down the position for an entire season, which is a big IF. As I stated many times, the Royals are likely to lose Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Volquez and Wade Davis after 2017...the odds of keeping more than 1-2 are infinitesimal. At that time, at least still they'll have Gordon, Ventura and Sal Perez as "hometown" heroes for bumping up their next media rights deal from $20 to $100-120 million per season. $40 million for Alex Gordon (+ $4 million buyout) over those two seasons won't be the end of the world. He's worth more to the Royals than any other team for marketing purposes. Yeah because a network is going to pay double on a 10 to 20 to 30 year contract based on a player who is aging and has 1 year left to play.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 09:07 PM) Here's the thing. The Cubs just paid Zobrist for four years and he's MUCH older than Cespedes and could be Upton's father (joking). Was it an overpay, maybe...but if you approach FA negotiations with a dogged determination never to go past 3 years you might as well not even bother. Just tell all the agents...well, if your client can't find 4-6 years anywhere, ring up the White Sox. It's the kind of rigid decision Wal-Mart would make about unions or health care benefits. Last time I checked, the White Sox weren't a monopoly or even close to an oligopoly in the AL. Then why in the other thread did you say never go more than 3 years?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:40 PM) I could be wrong, but this seems like a push to get Davis to decide Could be, but that usually doesn't work with Boras.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:21 PM) Ummm...if buyouts are pushed one year ahead for accounting purposes, sure. Actually, the last two years of Gordon are more about investing against their upcoming media rights deal. He will likely be the main remaining face of the franchise then. And I never said sign Fowler before the draft pick expiration...I said I would wait and see if Fowler and Desmond were still on the board as the season started. You specifically mentioned not giving Gordon 4 years and the last 2 are more expensive, so it isn't dumb as long as you save some money the first 2 years and pay them the second? How is it smart to pay a guy to join you during the season if he is someone that will have trouble adjusting to the AL?

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:08 PM) I'm averaging. Out of curiosity how many runs did the Sox OF defense cost them in 2015?

Didn't he play in Canada or somewhere and not exactly light it up?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:03 PM) I said all along to sign Parra, Jackson or Span if the price on Cespedes or Upton was too high. It's what KC should have done until they managed a deal that pays Alex Gordon $28 million the next two years, the same the White Sox will pay Fowler, plus losing the draft pick. So they've turned Semien, Bassit, Phegley, Ravelo, AND a lost compensation pick worth $10-12 million in short and long-term impact into a below average CF who strikes out too much and who will essentially be earning the same as a four time Gold Glover who projects to have a higher OBP. In the meantime, the lack of depth in the farm system rules out 75% of the possible remaining trades on the board. Brilliant. Read #3. As far as I can tell they will be paying Gordon $20 million in year 3, and probably $24 million in year 4 with the buyout.and amazing how Fowler would be a smart play for one team, but a guy who wouldn't be able to adjust to the AL with another.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:00 PM) Nobody's asking for Elite Defense. If we wanted Elite Defense we would have signed Jason Heyward. Adding Fowler into that mix would probably equate them to being capable of combining for 4 losses worth of runs. I know you are admittedly obsessed by the runs saved stat, but doesn't that vary from year to year?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 05:53 PM) If everyone in MLB was so convinced that Dexter Fowler was so great after one year in Houston with no pressure on him, then why did he only receive a one year offer from the at the time rebuilding Cubs? Why weren't contending teams willing to offer him a guaranteed starting role and multiple years? He was traded to the Cubs. That would have been tampering.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 05:47 PM) Unless you know the exact amounts of the contracts, everything is relative. Of course Parra, Jackson or Span are better than paying Cespedes six years and $150 million. Of course overpaying Fowler and losing the draft pick at the same time is dumb. You're still arguing Jackson over Fowler, so what's the point? Circumstances don't ever change? I still stand by my December 23rd post that making a number of improvements instead of one big improvement is preferable. IN GENERAL. That said, if the choice of that last big improvement is Cespedes vs. Fowler, or Upton vs. Fowler, then I would much rather pay either of them four years and $80-90 million rather than signing Fowler and also losing the pick. Why is that so hard to understand? All along I've been mentioning Desmond and second tier starting options. Please list all of the players remaining on the market, their salaries and then we can have a debate about the merits of one over another or two being better than one, etc. You are the one who said Cespedes wouldn't sign with the White Sox, and who would, unless they paid a significant premium. It is easy to understand you. Whatever the current White Sox rumor is, you take the other side. Dexter Fowler would be terrible, wouldn't be able to adjust to the AL, but he made perfect sense for Dayton Moore, who was going to copy KW but only much smarter.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 23, 2015 -> 08:12 PM) Because the mods asked for it, haha. As expected, this post will be long...so no point in reading and/or complaining afterwards. 1) Spread out your pool of money over a group of free agents and trade targets, but concentrate as much as possible on "value"/players coming off injuries or with bad reps. More often that means tier 3 guys, instead of overpaying for Tier 2. When you DO go after a Tier 2 (Edinson Volquez or Shark), get it right. The White Sox turned Ordonez, Lee and Valentin's money into Hermanson, Vizcaino, Iguchi, Dye, Pods, AJ, Hernandez and Dye. The worst of those deals was for El Duque, and they ended up getting those three miraculous outs against BOS with the bases loaded to redeem that move. The Royals did essentially the same thing (and similar to the Red Sox model for winning the World Series more recently). They were able to bring in Chris Young, Medlen (more for this season as a starter), Volquez, Blanton, Rios, Madson and, most importantly, Kendrys Morales, for less than the White Sox spent on all their acquisitions. 2) When you make big moves to go for it, utilize the depth of your minor league system to acquire those players (Freddy Garcia in 2004 or Zobrist/Cueto). The Royals didn't pay any of the salary for both of those guys, but they sacrificed a lot of their minor league depth to do so (a big criticism of the KW/JR regime). 3) Stay away from long-term contracts (anything more than 3 years) or overspending...even on your own players (see Alex Gordon or Pujols/StL). 4) Related to #1, unearth even more "under the radar types" who can contribute (low risk/medium reward), nobody noticed the Royals signing the likes of Young, Medlen or Blanton last year, or the addition of Dillon Gee and John Lannan already this offseason for rotation depth/insurance. Likewise, the White Sox made tons of moves like that from 2003-05 that went virtually unnoticed nationally (Cliff Politte, Esteban Loaiza or Geoff Blum). Essentially, right now is where the paths depart and where KW went wrong after 2005, changing the team composition too dramatically. Here is what the Royals will do, IMO. 1) They essentially have a five year window of "good will" from the community that has been earned through two consecutive World Series appearances. That will generate additional revenue streams, but the major problem is that their media rights deal isn't up for renewal until 2019. That essentially means that they're getting paid $20 million for a product arguably worth $50-70 million and one that would probably fetch in the vicinity of $110-130 million on the open bidding market. 2) Because of that fact, they simply can't afford to sign any players with contracts beyond 2018, with 2016-17 being the ideal window (and that's where someone like a CarGo makes sense, if the numbers work). Gordon will get four if not five years, so it makes no sense to pay for a player on his decline for 2-3 seasons when you've already lost the core of your foundation (Cain/Moustakas/Hosmer after 2017). 3) On the other hand, they have the luxury of biding their time and sitting back and waiting for their division rivals to set the target or benchmark. They're waiting to see if the White Sox or Tigers end up with one of Davis, Upton, Gordon or Cespedes, whether the Indians upgrade their offense further with a trade of a young starter and what the heck the Twins are up to. With all the accrued "good will," they're not forced into making a desperate financial move...so they can wait, and wait, and wait some more. 4) The hope/underlying belief is that a slew of interesting players will become available once all the big guns have been fired off...allowing them to swoop in and sign the likes of Span, Parra or Austin Jackson for bargain or value prices. Trading second-tier prospects for Desmond Jennings is another option. Because of the depth in the FA starting pitching class, they can also possibly sign a 2nd/3rd tier pitching option to fill out the rotation and provide depth (same issue the White Sox have at the moment). 5) Which would allow them to push Duffy into the bullpen and/or make him trade material if they can market him, Herrera or Hochevar to a team desperate to overpay for bullpen help (see HOU/Boston this off-season) and ironically enough hoping to copy the KC "bullpen dominance" blueprint. This is where we get back to the old KW way of doing things. Everything that comes after patience. 6) The idea that someone like an Ian Desmond or Dexter Fowler will fall into their grasp because they go unsigned into the regular season (like Morales/S.Drew two years ago). Desmond could used at their three weakest offensive positions, 2B, LF or RF (many believe he will be converted to a Zobrist-like superutility role because of his athletic ability). Players like Desmond or Fowler are more likely to want to sign "rebuild value" one year contracts or perhaps one year with an option contracts, which fits perfectly into the KC time frame. 7) The tried and true KW plan, reload at the trade deadline, adjust on the fly...with their additional revenue flows and guaranteed attendance the next two seasons, they have a lot more flexibility than other teams in the division to either add talent by trading minor league prospects or taking on salary (like the White Sox did in 2012 with Youkilis, Myers and Liriano). The Royals have the luxury of being able to sit back and bide their time, not unlike the way DET went about things in 2012...waiting to run down the front-runners in the 2nd half of the season. Teams like DET, the White Sox and Indians will be much more desperate to get off to quick starts IMO. Bump. LMAO

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 05:00 PM) The only time I've used that projection was just a little bit ago. Everything else is from past years. He's a very bad defender. Especially in Center Field. Just how much are you willing to sacrifice is the question. I'm on record of not wanting to sacrifice defense anymore in the outfield. I dont want to see tons of out of position runs given up again. Just poor fundamentals from bad defenders. I think with Sale, Q, and Rodon, elite OF are not all that necessary. Just make the regular plays, throw to the right base....the 2005 White Sox had Pods and Dye in the corners. They really weren't good defenders, but they made the plays they had to make. Pods couldn't throw, and that is really all JD could do. And that OF was considered good defensively. RH's obsession with ground ball pitchers and the small OF at USCF make having an elite OF defensively a luxury

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:44 PM) If you take into consideration the draft pick loss...the difference per year on Cespedes at 4 years and $80 million isn't that extreme at all. We've already seen the White Sox screw up their financial flexibility with Cabrera and LaRoche already...we keep making mistakes on second tier free agents, preventing us from ever signing the best ones. Who's to say Fowler wouldn't be a complete bust? Statistically, you can argue Cabrera and Fowler's collective bust rate vs. Upton and Cespedes individually. I certainly agree you don't give Cespedes over $100 million or over four years...that's obvious. This is where you are so full of s***. When it was rumored the Sox were after Gordon or Cespedes, you said 4 year contracts were dumb. You also mentioned the Sox should sign Gerardo Parra, the guy that couldn't hit in the AL last year. When the new rumor is Fowler, that is a dumb idea , he is a guy who will have a hard time adjusting to the AL. I think you forgot Houston was in the AL. No, you said now is the time to spend money. Of course earlier you told us the Sox didn't have any money, they spent it all last year, and no way they didn't take a loss during the 2015 season. You also told us there was no chance Cespedes would sign with the Sox unless they paid an additional percentage because he liked the marketing opportunities on the east coast, and/or his 3 months in Detroit. Do you remember what you post, or do you just ignore the fact that you keep contradicting yourself based on the newest White Sox rumor?