StrangeSox

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:58 PM) Reality is that it isn't rationale. But that doesn't really matter. I guess I'm just pretty skeptical that the tiny subset of people who are both living on less than $3k/year and who would actually consider having a child for welfare money are also following policy close enough that they'd be incentivized into having a child for an extra $1k for three years.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:56 PM) Big reason why McCain himself was uncomfortable with going too negative against Obama (his loose-cannon running mate notwithstanding). He knew what it was like to be on the receiving end of those smears and he wouldn't be responsible for it. Yep. While he ran on a pretty conservative platform and he propelled Sarah Palin onto the national stage, I don't remember those campaigns really getting "dirty." I don't know how much of it is driven by outside PAC money running negative ads, but I have to imagine that the pendulum is going to swing back a bit for the next election. Nothing will seem all that outrageous and insane compared to Trump, and maybe it can go back to being a little more policy-focused. At least I hope.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:54 PM) Yes, and smoking my not cause cancer. Hey, stop channeling Mike Pence! Smoking doesn't kill! Only 33% percent of smokers die from smoking!

QUOTE (brett05 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:53 PM) However it could be accurate. Ok, you've got one national experimental poll on one hand, every other normal national poll plus all of the state polls on the other hand. I really kinda doubt that the LA Times managed to invent a new style of polling that just happens to be accurate while every other polling firm in the country is off massively.

QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:49 PM) It's a good argument if you're just talking about the past few elections though. There was definitely dirt in them (eg Swiftboating), but nothing like 2016. McCain's illegitimate black baby smear in 2000 primary

QUOTE (brett05 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:48 PM) Unfortunately I have family members that have done this. I believe this as much as HH's claims to personally know two people who were lied to by planned parenthood into getting abortions they didn't even need because they weren't even pregnant. Regardless of the truth of that claim, if someone is doing that they're not exactly making rational economic choices and I *really* doubt they're up to date on the latest policy details regarding the child tax credit.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:49 PM) Except the LA Times which has him as a 2 point favorite The LA Times is a tracker poll which isn't really comparable to 'standard' polls. They've been polling a sample of 800 people or so every day from a larger sample of 3000 people for the entire race. Other polls poll 800-2000 random new people every time. The issue with the LA Time's method is that any potential bias in that original 3000 person sample is baked in from day 1 and unfixable.

QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) Why wouldn't we think he was serious? Who falsely brags about sexual assault? Trump already admitted on Howard Stern that he would barge into the dressing rooms of Miss USA contestants to see them naked. This isn't a guy who gives a s*** about what women want. They're sexual objects. He does whatever he wants and knows he has enough power/money to get away with it. He's also been alleged to do exactly what he was describing by at least a couple of women.

Carthago delenda est! Pithy political phrases have been with us as long as we've had politics.

This is at the end of the latest extremely Breitbart Trump ad attacking Clinton's health I have a feeling things are going to get much, much worse over the next 27 days.

no war but class war, comrade

Related, new polling for the DCCC finds that GOP lawmakers are really in a damned if you do, damned if you don't spot regarding Trump. Generic congressional ballot is D+7 right now. If the specific candidate in questions supports trump, it's D+12. If they denounce Trump, it's....D+12. Independent/swing voters/soft support won't like it if you support Trump, Republican base won't like it if you dump him. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-l...m=.a15ba0b691b2

How successful, if at all, does anyone think Trump/Breitbart/Alt-right will be at splitting the GOP and doing lasting damage? Unrelated funny letter about VOTE FRAUD I do wonder how much intimidation we'll see at the polls on election day, though. Trump's already given lots of "wink wink nudge nudge" not-so-subtle speeches about it.

They were hamstrung by a bunch of penalties, right?

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 11:20 AM) Adding to my other post: People (Republicans too) keep saying Reince Priebus is a weak leader, and maybe he is, but what's he supposed to do? Trump won the primaries fair and square, and convincingly so. He can't just disavow his party's nominee as the party chairman, the voters will go into open revolt and it would destroy the party. He could have told him he wasn't running from day 1, but that carried its own risks.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 09:12 AM) This is what I was talking about a few posts up. People think this about the fact that Trump said something dirty, and used the word "p****" when he wasn't supposed to. That's not the point at all. The whole Lewinsky affair for example was 100% inappropriate but it was completely consensual, in fact SHE was aggressively pursuing HIM. "50 Shades of Grey" was an official GOP talking point all of them were using in unison the past few days. The problem with that is the whole relationship with the main characters involves a contract and there was never any non-consensual sex. The most recent defense I heard was "Clinton is hypocritical to criticize Trump because she admires Beyonce and Beyonce had lyrics saying her husband f***ed her good so she takes his ass to Red Lobster." Ummmmm no. Not. The. Same. Thing. The one thing I think you can say about Clinton/Lewinski is that there's a huge power imbalance there and it best it's very questionable when someone in a position of authority engages in sexual activity with a subordinate. I liken it to the college professor who's sleeping with undergrads--definitely not legal, but still pretty skeezy and can raise some questions regarding power, influence and consent.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 09:07 AM) For the record it is a relief and kind of exciting to have arguments over whether social programs increase or decrease likelihood of moving people out of poverty cycle. I'd much rather have that discussion than worrying about an insane man will get elected president. I think we should talk about how Ken Bone is apparently having a lot of fun with this, and good for him! This is his twitter profile pic now.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 10:01 AM) Black people, and non-black people who don't have their heads up their asses, don't need to see a video of Trump saying the n-word. That's for all the clueless people who are hung up on what they think is just a bunch of PC language violations, for everyone else, they have a whole ass mountain of evidence to conclude what should be obvious. Those people think evidence of racism is one of the following: -Using the n-word -Direct, open involvement with the KKK -Literally nothing else If this video gets released, expect another round of people pretending to be shocked that they didn't know Trump has been this person his entire life. There's still something about the human psyche that makes it more visceral about having video or audio of the person saying it or doing it. I do think you're on to something there with the "evidence of racism" thing, and that an "n-word tape" could be used as an excuse for "oh yes, this is obviously racist!" while sweeping the last 16 months of Trump's racism (and sexism) that the GOP's apparently been a-okay with under the rug. QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 10:04 AM) Actually discriminating black families from opportunities to live in your development because they are black is to me more pernicious anyways. This will just be Donald sterling part two. "Sure, he discriminated against people of color for decades, but how would we have known he was racist unless we heard him say the n-word?!?!" Hours before the p**** grabber tape dropped, he reiterated his stance that the Central Park Five were guilty and should have been executed.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 09:58 AM) Also it is already available to those makin 3k or more and no stats have shown that happening. For instance, teen ptrnanvy continues to decline and is at lowest point ever. The "welfare queen popping out babies" is a gross myth that needs to die. There's no reason, as you say, that we can't both help children in extreme poverty while also continuing to lower unwanted pregnancies.

I haven't but I've been meaning to, thanks for reminding me!

QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 09:32 AM) That's difficult for me to understand without my morning coffee. Is that system "phasing out" people making over 70k/110k? edit: and if you're lowering the credit to people who pay no income tax, aren't you effectively just paying people $1,000 per kid that they have? It helps offset the costs of raising a child, but in no way does $1k make it 'profitable' to have a kid.

Uh https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/...842546878578688 pretty sure this means his campaign is going Full Breitbart now

Trump is firmly in his own delusional rally, claiming once again that all of the polls show he won the second debate. https://mobile.twitter.com/mattmfm/status/785803273982906368

He's to be hanged at dawn