StrangeSox

Masto's had some pretty strong polls recently in Nevada, showing her with a comfortable lead. NV is notoriously hard to poll, but if the Democrats can hold that seat (it's Reid's current seat), that will go a long, long way. Bayh is also polling strongly in Indiana. I'd say that 538's chances for the Dem Senate 'feel' about right. For the House, IIRC the Democrats really need something like D+12 on a generic ballot poll in order to have a shot at taking that back, and they're not quite there. Most likely what will happen is we get millions of more votes collectively for Democrats, but Republicans manage to hold the House at a much tighter margin because of the gerrymandering you mention. The more interesting question there, potentially, is what will happen in the race for Speaker. Portions of the GOP are waging open war on Ryan right now.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 17, 2016 -> 01:23 PM) I am 100% certain you'll never see Michelle Obama continue in an actual political position. She seems to want to go back to a more normal life ASAP. She supposedly loathes Washington

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 17, 2016 -> 01:17 PM) Except they turned out in record numbers, so there was something there, despite the attempts of the left to discredit it. He drove people who typically skip the primaries but end up voting Republican in the general to show up for the primaries. He was bringing "new" voters to that stage of the race, but they aren't a new voting bloc for the general election. Polling of both the primary and the general bears this out. That's not 'discrediting' anything but explaining what happened and why it's not likely to lead to some surge of previously unlikely voters to vote Trump this November. You can add new voter registration rates by party and race to evidence against the idea that he's bringing a lot of new people into the GOP coalition.

It's also lead to a pretty substantial lead in the polls for her, so it seems to have been the right decision to make. To that point, Monmouth dropped another national poll today showing Clinton over 50% and with a double-digit lead. Plus, don't forget that most of the garbage surrounding Trump has been driven by Trump himself, not Clinton.

John McCain talking about how if Clinton wins but Republicans keep the Senate, they'll continue to obstruct any possible nominee to the Supreme Court.

Trump typically underperformed his polls if anything in the primary, it was just that the pundits didn't want to believe what the polls were saying. This is from May, but Politico did not find Trump expanding the GOP. What he drove was higher turnout in the primaries/caucuses among people who were already likely to vote Republican in November.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 17, 2016 -> 08:33 AM) The fascism and racism are sooo September. The sexism is what the cool kids are talking about now. You seem sort of upset that people don't like a Presidential candidate who bragged about sexual assault and then had a wave of accusers come out after he denied it. Is that not a newsworthy event?

Trump with the increasing "rigged!" rhetoric. Scary how a significant majority of his supporters are already calling the election illegitimate. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/...995025527410688

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 17, 2016 -> 07:41 AM) Because Trump grabs women by the p****. That's all that matters in this election. Well that and the fact that he's campaigning on fascism. Edit plus there's really not anything horrible coming out of these email leaks anyway

QUOTE (shysocks @ Oct 16, 2016 -> 07:33 PM) That is really shameful. Worth noting that Hillary has already condemned the attack. Both sides are capable of violence. Only one side has a nominee who encourages it. Local democrats started a go fund me to help rebuild https://www.gofundme.com/reopen-a-nc-republ...f3fbc764e065f4f

Gotta be some sort of injury with Rodgers, right?

My wife's whole family is catholic and also lifelong democrats.

Maybe they can hand out subsidized tinfoil

Filling out my ballot this morning- why is coroner an elected position?

There's a difference between a Medicare for all like system, which is what the progressive wing of the party pushes for, and a nhs/va style system where the government is actually the Healthcare provider. The intent of the law was to greatly expand coverage while also curbing costs. If our current private insurance system can't support that, good riddance. We also still have the majority of Americans getting their coverage through non- exchange plans, so while the struggles the exchanges are seeing in some states aren't good, it's not the total destruction of the private health insurance industry.

If this is actually their internal polling analysis https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/787094250458603520

Trump used his foundation to pay his sons $7 membership fee https://mobile.twitter.com/Fahrenthold/stat...033721534869504

Three men arrested in bomb plot against Somali community in Kansas http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Federal-o...-397095961.html

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 14, 2016 -> 01:23 PM) Rush Limbaugh is the same thing honestly. If you go back into his pre-right wing radio show, he was nothing like this. That would have been the 80'S though, right? He's been the leading voice of movement conservatism for decades.

QUOTE (brett05 @ Oct 14, 2016 -> 11:29 AM) Pence was outstanding this morning showing by far he's the best of the four folks involved in this race (Sorry Johnson and Stein, you ain't part of the four). That said, how do you have proof of a negative? That puzzled me. I wish the hosts would have told Pence that we don't care at all about policies, we only want to hear about Trump allegations and whether or not you can handle them correctly. They were quite rude. At least I can say for Trump that he doesn't seem to have the visceral hatred for gay people that pence does.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 14, 2016 -> 08:52 AM) Limbaugh was so, SO close to being right. Of course non-consensual sex is rape! What's confusing about this? So 5 people are in a consensual gang-bang? Ok, so? What business is this of yours? Not exactly shocking that the moral majority turns out to be morally bankrupt tbh

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 08:55 PM) Imagine if Romney, McCain, or Obama had had a scandal like this. Just this one single scandal about lying about their donations to a 9/11 charity. They'd have been buried. With Trump, this will barely be a blip on the radar. And he's still going to get 35%+ of the vote. https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/786916274441977856 ABC picking up the story too.

Southwest is flying to Havana soon, and now Obama has lifted the van on bringing Cuban rum and cigars back. https://mobile.twitter.com/USATODAY/status/...915021775306752

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 14, 2016 -> 06:52 AM) So, those lines from Limbaugh are more offensive to me than most of the (also awful) Trump lines being discussed. That is just really disturbing. I think they go hand in hand, but Limbaugh laying out his lack of understanding or even rejection of consent- based ethics to borrow a phrase from crimson just highlights the underlying problem so well. Mike pence has been on the morning shows defending Trump and claiming that Trump has proof that the accusations against him are lies.

Trump is going to blame Mexican billionaire Carlos slim for the allegations coming out against him. https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamSerwer/statu...893312791711744