StrangeSox

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 12:23 PM) I know there's a lot of this going on in random threads, but this article was too awesome to not get its own. Some funny little jokes snuck in there. http://deadspin.com/remember-when-the-chic...erie-1788190631 nice find QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) The Obama photo killed me. QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 01:48 PM) That's the best part lol. As if to say "nobody ever acknowledged the White Sox after that, except the President of the United States, frequently, in public" this (these?)

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 12:54 PM) See, while I am certainly not an economist, I get the impression the bolded is just not at all true. There certainly are some people who do that, but that isn't the same as saying that's the philosophy. No, it really is. One of its foundational tenets dating back to Mises is that its a purely deductive philosophy. They even invented their own philosophical school, praexology, to try to ground this better but it doesn't really work out so well. Austrians explicitly reject empirical mathematical modeling of the real economy and insist that theoretical deduction from axioms is the way to arrive at the right conclusions. Here's somewhat prominent libertarian economist Bryan Caplan of GMU explaining his criticisms of Austrian economics, and it touches on some of what I'm saying while going both broader and deeper. Human Action was one of the foundational works for Austrian economics, and the wiki page explains its premises better than I can.

it's random for me, sometimes if there's a tip line I'll throw a buck or two on there

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 11:40 AM) And good for them! When you so remove yourselves from actual policy and action you can then just claim to be right when anything goes wrong. hey I thought we were talking about economics not third parties!

...it is fringe, though. It has a comparatively small number of adherents and little to no influence on other economic schools of thought and public policy. It's hard for it to be considered a valid part of a discussion when it rejects empirical falsification of its claims and when its policy prescriptions lead to predictable and large disasters. I'm still thinking we have to be talking past each other to some degree and that you're considering some economic thought or specific people as Austrian that I'm not. Otherwise I can't really grasp why you'd consider Austrian a mainstream economic school. Like I said before, it's own adherents proudly wear the heterodox label. edit: largely beaten by bmags

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) it's not, that's Friedman. Austrians are the hard money cranks that at it's most charitable don't believe central banks work, but in its actual practice is against allowing banks to loan out money at all, that lowering of interest rates or stimulus lead to bad investment that cause recessions, and that despite all of the evidence their views are false, they can say it over and over again and because it's complicated they can get a following to believe it. QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 11:04 AM) It's Hayek who gets rolled into Austrian economics but that's just them trying to get legitimacy. Yeah that was Chicago and the monetarists who drove supply-side. Hayek was a quasi-Austrian but probably really closer to Friedman than Mises or Rothbard. I find it deeply ironic that Hayek is notable for Road to Serfdom (among other academic work including his Nobel) but then ended up going whole-hog for Pinochet.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 09:36 AM) I do not agree with your characterization of the schools of thought, at all, but that's fine. I think your dismissal of the Austrian school as fringe is not founded in reality. Regardless of whether or not you agree with it (and for the record, generally, I don't either), you've made it into some odd cartoon thing when in fact it's one of the primary schools of thought. And your statements about it being that hard-line are no more accurate than saying all Republicans are raging bigots. What do you count as falling under the Austrian school? It's not really considered mainstream even by the people who adhere to it, and it doesn't have nearly the academic foothold that the more orthodox economic schools of thought have. Either way, the mainstream split isn't between Austrian and Chicago. If anything, those two are closer than Chicago and Keynesian/saltwater and especially closer than the split between Austrian and Keynesian. Both of the bigger orthodox groups (fresh and salt water or however you might want to phrase it) have had strong criticisms for Austrian theories, and adherents to both of the former heavily outnumber those of the later.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 06:32 AM) Lots of early voting numbers rolling in in states like Texas, Florida, Georgia and Utah. Donald Trump is inspiring a lot of people to get our there and vote. To expand on that a bit by stealing a post from someone else [pro-dem poster but fairly objective look]: They are up .3% against the GOP versus 2012. Now that doesn't sound like much, but one needs to factor in the fact that NC GOP is currently engaging in pretty egregious vote suppression. Specifically, in Guilford county. It's a highly AA county that went for Obama by 18% in 2012. Demographics have just become significantly more friendly to democrats over the past 4 years They took the number of early polling stations from 16 and took it down to 1. This has lessened the early vote there by about 75%. The kicker? The number of polling stations increases dramatically on Wednesday and Friday. Assuming strong turnout [and there's reason to believe that people turnout against incumbents when they feel that their votes are trying to be silenced], Dems should make up most of that number quickly, and may even surpass 2012 numbers by the beginning of next week. To wit: The other thing about this is Cohn's estimation on who's voting: As long as I'm reading this right, Cohn is indicating that the subsection of who's voting early cleaves across the entire range of his voting likelyhood scale. There doesn't seem to be a meaningful difference between "Who's voting" and "Who's answering the poll." If this holds, all 3 Democratic candidates will win and likely comfortably. Florida - In short: RIP GOP. Registered Dems may have passed R's in early vote counts last night. It'll take another 2 hours for the final numbers to update. If they didn't last night, they will today. Assuming similar gains through the week, Dems will easily pass their 3 point advantage they held going into election day on 2012. Part of this might be the law change to absentee ballots, but we've already heard numbers that indicate that *double* the number of Latinos are voting in Florida right now. Florida is lost for Trump, but the real question is in the senate. Rubio holds a commanding 5-6 point lead thats narrowed slightly [discounting the Florida CoC poll that had him at +13] as the race has moved on. His median position in polls taken in the last week is +2. Rubio is helped by his enormous strength [in comparison to normal members of the GOP] among Latinos. If this changes, or Cuban-Am. turnout drops precipitously, Rubio is in trouble. There are a couple of vulnerable house districts in play, and I think Dems have a good shot of picking them up. The real question will be if they can knock off one the R+4/5 districts. Nevada/Colorado - In short: RIP GOP. Dems are outperforming in Colorado and Nevada. The primary point of interest in Nevada is Washoe county, where Dems are currently up 48-36, a significant boost over 2014 and 2012. NV-2 is an R+15 district, so I don't expect it to flip, but significant turnout in Washoe could make that race very very close. Dems will win the senate seat in Nevada and pick up two house districts [Nv-3 and Nv-4] Basically the only thing that could possibly save the GOP [not Trump. Trump is done.] right now is if the Dems are cannibalizing a significant part of their vote early and that the overall numbers of Dems voting won't change significantly. Based on enthusiasm metrics, I find that unlikely.

I prefer some good sashimi to sushi

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 10:17 AM) So the cost estimates were too low? Get out. Health insurers as well underestimated the health care needs of the people who would be using the exchanges. The story here is multi-fold, with the good part being millions of people getting health care they needed but didn't have access to before.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 10:14 AM) Nutty? You know, I happen to know some economists, two of whom work at the Fed in DC. I've had discussions with them about Austrian vs Chicago school. There are just as many economists in that crowd who believe one as the other, and then some who are in between. These aren't politicians, these are scientists, who know a lot more about the subject than you or I do. So, just as you'd (rightly) point out we should probably listen to the scientists on climate change, I think calling one of the two major schools of economic thought "nutty" when so many experts back it is kind of ridiculous. Austrian isn't one of the two major schools. It's a fairly fringe group. The "major" schools are Chicago/freshwater (typically more supply-side, founded by UofC scholar Milton Friedman) and Coastal/Saltwater (Harvard/Kenysian etc. types, typified by Krugman, Delong etc, probably much better non-political examples but I think that gets the point across, maybe Piketty?). Austrians are the group that generally reject fiat money and demand a hard gold standard and explicitly reject empirical tests of theoretical predictions. It's the mises.org and Lew Rockwell turbo-libertarian types. I realize now though that my wording in response to bmags was very poor and confusing so chalk that up to another communication failure on my part!

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 10:04 AM) I know that's why I posted it. I am concerned that this is a reflection of the growing distrust of "numbers" and how any bad ones are rigged or should be discarded. But we should trust Chinese GDP numbers, thou Conservative economics hasn't cared about numbers for a long time. Republicans have argued for "dynamic scoring" aka "tax cuts don't cause deficits" accounting for decades. and if you go down the truly nutty path of Austrian economics (typically tied to libertarianism), they explicitly reject empiricism. edited for clarity.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 08:47 AM) Poor Greg https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/201...ot-reporting-it Greg has expressed frustration towards Brownback and bafflement that he was reelected before. Remember, the same guys who helped run Kansas into the ground are also the senior economic advisers to Trump!

The numerous stories confirmed by multiple, independent third parties about Trump being extremely creepy at best towards underaged girls have gotten surprisingly little airtime.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 08:07 AM) You can still use office on each device like we do, but also use google for everything else. You can share word docs on google as well. O365 just kind blows. This is what we do. There was some initial talk when we switched to gmail of "google for everything!" but then both engineering and accounting threatened massive revolt if they took away years worth of excel macros.

Rates Rise Again For Obamacare Health Plans, But So Do Subsidies Steep rises for plans on the federal exchanges for next year. The underlying issue with both these premium increases and with some insurers pulling out of some markets seems to be that the population that is served by the exchanges need more healthcare than anticipated.

Lots of early voting numbers rolling in in states like Texas, Florida, Georgia and Utah. Donald Trump is inspiring a lot of people to get our there and vote.

NEW: Trump threw parties with cocaine and girls as young as 15

QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Oct 24, 2016 -> 04:02 PM) Need to get my 4k TV before that comes out. Can't wait. Hope we get the Attenborough-narrated version instead of a re-narration like the previous BBC ports.

QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Oct 24, 2016 -> 12:34 PM) Civ-to-Civ diplomacy seems jacked up right now, and they're gonna need some patching. China declared war on me 3-4 times and I was sick of it, so I countered and took their capital. The other 4 Civs immediately hated me (even the 2 China was beating up) and declared me a warmonger for the rest of the game. Gimme a break. I finished that first game with a Cultural victory. My cities had become more balanced by the end of the game. Nothing had every district, but none were limited to being The Science City or anything like that. Biggest lesson from game 1: be more aggressive with military and expansion. Barbs definitely have a ton of power. My first game was an archipelago random map, so I was insulated from their hordes early on. But about mid-game, I had a solid fleet of quadriremes when someone else advanced to the renaissance. All of a sudden, there are barb caravels floating all over the world, wrecking absolutely everyone's ships. came across this guide for placing districts and bonuses

Kelly is the greatest cartoonist of our generation

Don't know if it was mentioned in here yet, but BBC put out a trailer for .

She has former Daily Show writers on her staff IIRC, but her campaign has always loved these workshopped-to-death phrases that are just awful. Like when they were trying to make "Dangerous Donald" a thing earlier this year.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 24, 2016 -> 02:36 PM) I know grown men that broke down into tears at the game Saturday. Even if they get swept, it's still a pretty damn huge moment for the franchise. Oh, no matter what happens in the next 10 days, they will be the odds-on favorites to win the 2017 World Series. obviously you're not taking into consideration every fielder blowing out their ACL's and every pitcher blowing out both their elbows and shoulders

INFOWARS