Bridgeport_Joe

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Team USA starts competing in the AFL in a few days, right?

Anyone know why he hasn't played so far?

Southsider, attendance only makes up a fraction of the team's revenue. Assuming it's around 40% or so, a 20% increase is only 8%. And $70M means no Colon, no Alomar, no Everett. Which means this is a 82 win team. And only looking to be worse in 2005, when Maggs and Lee leave. Blow it up.

And what I was saying is that I think the long term attendance outlook is better if they blow the team up, take the hit in 2004, and have a chance at success in 2005 and beyond, than if they try to cobble the same team together and gradually get worse each and every year until 2006 or so, when they are an old, expensive 70-75 win team with a bad farm system (i.e., the Orioles). If they try to keep this team together, there is a 25% or so chance at making the playoffs in 2004, and then you'll see the same departures--but getting back draft picks, rather than ready-for-the-majors players.

Marte started in the minors--I think given the proper conditioning, he could easily move back to that role. And you know what? I think that he not only COULD start, he would probably be one of the top starters in the AL after a year. Even if his numbers decline significantly, he's still a very good 3.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP pitcher.

They're going to have to take the bullet some time, given that the farm system isn't strong enough to reload and Reinsdorf is too cheap to acquire the veteran talent needed to make the transition seamless--and quite frankly, I don't trust Williams to make the right additions. The team is at a crossroads right now. They can either hold on to what they have and watch Thomas, Val and Konerko (and probably Buehrle) steadily decline, and Ordonez and Loaiza leave, and see the feasible win total drop from 92 to 89 to 85 to 80 games, or they can bite the bullet and get developed talent back for their players right now. They can't wait. After 2004, Maggs, Lee, and probably Loaiza are gone. Buehrle and Garland are two years from leaving--and they're expensive at that. There's no one in the system to replace the hitters, and we all know the success of pitching prospects. In other words, the Sox are the Baltimore Orioles--but without the nice stadium, and with stiff intracity competition. You think a developing year in 2004 will be worse for attendance than a 2006 and beyond team that is hopelessly bad with no foreseeable likelihood to get better? I take my lumps next year. The team's not in a bad position, except for the lack of any middle infield help in the organization. They could build around pitching, outfielders, and then augment with free agent middle infielders (which they could afford to do if they clear out the salaries). Blow. It. Up.

Problem is that if we re-sign Alomar and Colon, this is a $75M payroll team. And that just ain't going to fly. On the other hand, if we DON'T bring back the team as is, this is an 80 win team at best. And that's not going to be good enough to compete with the Twins and probably Royals. Blow it up. Trade Maggs for Nick Johnson (or some other equivalent young and cheap stud who is going to be here for 4 years). See if someone will give you two ready-for-the-majors pitching prospects for Buehrle (who has seen his numbers drop every year, and who is approaching the Jamesian 4.5 K/9 cliff) and Konerko. St. Louis comes to mind--I wouldn't mind Jimmy Journell and Rhett Parrot. Float Loaiza and see if you can get pitching prospects or middle infield prospects. There's no reason to pay him $3M if this is a 70 win team. Given that Lee is an UFA in 2005, offer him a $20M/3 yr extension. If he turns that down, call the Cubs and see if they'll exchange left fielders and give you Cruz in the exchange. I want to see Reed and Rowand in the outfield next year. I want to commit to a minimum of 15 starts each for Cotts, Marte, Pacheco, Rauch, the pitching prospects you get for Buehrle/Maggs/Lee/Loaiza, and even Honel if he's strong in B'ham. Most of all, I want this to be a $30M payroll team in 2005 so that if the pitchers and Reed/Rowand/Borchard DO work out, Williams can go out and get that bat that makes this a very, very good team.

Hey, Baj, nice year by the way. Real good numbers.

It's not just fielding percentage. If you look at every stat (Defensive Efficiency, Zone Rating, etc.), the Sox are above-average-to-good. This team is a solid defensive team. Period.

Right, Rodriguez was on the postseason roster because a guy that was on the 25 man as of 8/30 was on the DL. It's a serious loophole--if any guy on the 25 man at the end of August is on the DL, you can replace him with anyone on the 40 man.

Why no September call-up? Birmingham's season will be over. Why not give the kid a reward for a fabulous season, and have a good lefty bat on the bench to boot?

I understand they want Reed playing every day, but it would just cost him a few days of sitting. They could call him up on August 28, and then send him back down on September 1, and then call him back up when B'hams season was over. The only real downside is that they start his option clock (I think), but that just means his options will expire in 2006 rather than 2007. Does anyone suspect that he will still be in the minors in 2006? If I'm the Sox, I definitely want him on the postseason roster, rather than Harris.

Sorry, I was confusing. Reed is going to compete for a roster spot next spring, especially if Everett goes. At the very least, the Sox will want him on the 40 man in case of injury.

Why wouldn't we consider sending Harris down and calling up Reed towards the end of the month? Does the difference between Harris's good speed and Reed's above-average-to-good speed negate the fact that Reed can hit and Harris can't? I suspect Reed will get a call-up in September anyway--he's got to open next season on the 40 man, so no worry about that, so why not get him here a week early and have the opportunity to have him on the postseason? Seems like he'd be a very valuable pinch hitting option (as his adjusted .285 EqA attests to), and his defense and baserunning would only be a negligible drop off over Harris.

Oops, hadn't seen those posts. Jim, never mind. Moderator-types, please feel free to delete this thread. Thanks...

Be interested to hear your thoughts on Reed. Specifically, (1) what sort of time frame do you see for him reaching Chicago, (2) his power numbers seem to have jumped a little in a pitcher-friendly park, (3) can he play CF?, and (4) how would you pitch him. As a light poster, I just wanted to thank you as the regulars have done for coming on here on occasion. Those of us die hard Sox fans appreciate hearing from (hopefully) future Sox players.

I should clarify that he's my boss's friend.

I see Reinsdorf at social occasions once a year or so. He's a friend and former colleague of one of my bosses.

Caple was the Twins beat writer for a dozen years. He absolutely hates the White Sox. I have a hunch that his rating was solely out of spite. Prepare to read how Comiskey is the worst park in the major leagues, with Olympic Stadium being its only competition.

Not true. Baseball Prospectus tore him a new one when he kept on harping on his 30 GS/190 IP theory at the beginning of the year. They absolutely suggested that he was searching for ways to pick the White Sox to win it all.

Quite honestly? This is moment of truth #2 this year. They passed the first real test--the twelve games against the Cubs and Twins. If they had gone 4-8, then I think you would have seen an immediate fire sale and Manuel would be gone. With respect to the current stretch, they need to trim the lead to five games going into KC, or they need to go at least 8-3 in the next 11. A failure to do either would probably result in trades and Manuel's dismissal.

Rotoworld reported he was called up to B'ham. Anyone confirm? If so, he's WAY ahead of schedule.

I would hold out for Nomar, Manny, and Pedro. It's nearly as likely as getting the Red Sox's top two upper level prospects and a decent CFer for two rent-a-players. MAYBE the Red Sox do Fossum and a lower tier prospect. Maybe.

With college guys, the fastest reasonable timetable is: Remainder of draft season in full season low A. Start the next year in high A. If they succeed by late June, promoted to AA. September big league call-up if they succeed there. Start the next year at AAA. Permanent call-up when a roster spot opens . This assumes success at every level, which is rare. But draft-to-Chicago in a touch less than two full years is doable.

I always thought that they should go back to two divisions, and have one wildcard. Best team in each league gets a first round bye.