Texsox

I would support a rules change that would rrequire all postseason and the final regular season games needing to be regulation minimum 9 inning games.

Yes, but indirectly, it is a scholarship fund that is very specific in the recipient. I also support my United way because I am very close to them and the organizations they support. I also give a nice contribution to the Boy Scouts each year. I basically continued the same amount I gave before working for them. It sounds and feels strange, but it makes sense in my heart.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 09:55 PM) Then after they get drunk, you can chain them to tables and have them make shoes for 5 cents an hour. /going to hell, laughing all the way . . .

After watching 30 years of elections, there are always surprises. Last minute changes of heart. It looks pretty good for Obama, no doubt about it, but I would not stop campaigning and advertising if I was Obama and stay home preparing victory speeches based on the last polls. I say McCain betters the polls and it may be enough to win. I see a late surge towards McCain. Those that believe the current polls are 100% correct, stay home. Your work is done. But just as we've seen changes in polling numbers from week to week, the biggest poll of all, with 100% of the likely voters, has started and will be running until November 4th. I believe that poll is important.

Actually a better answer is the "likely voters polled" have to actually vote. And of course there are factors here that help each candidate. Normally, the gray hairs are much more likely to vote and, I'm guessing here, that they favor McCain. What I am not certain of is which group is most likely to vote, those who favor the candidate who is leading in the polls and has already won, or the candidate that has already lost. Again, a guess, I think this may favor Obama as some voters will want to cast a ballot for the first black President. And I actually like polls. I'm just thinking there is more Obama bias than McCain.

Dewey was up in all the polls. I ask y'all that are convinced, why even go to the polls if we know the winner?

I am glad I am on the right track. Besides an occasional margarita I had fallen into the beer and wine rut.

/going shopping thanks. I'm also picking up the book you see as my avatar. Sounds really interesting and I enjoy eating, and drinking, history.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 08:42 AM) I think they are probably a bit biased towards Obama, but it will vary by state. Lots of factors involved. But I think the polls are probably pretty close, just a few points off. There are so many unpolled factors that offset each other. Which is what I've been trying to say. And it seems close enough in a few instances that it could tilt the election to McCain. I'm also expecting a late rally towards McCain as the undecided play it safe with an establishment candidate who has been around for decades.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 08:23 AM) Margin of error is a statistically derived value about the ratio of sample size to total pool. Its got nothing to do with perceived dishonesty or anything subjective at all. But we know that people are not always 100% in their responses. You mentioned they could be lying to piss off the pollsters. Are you thinking the polls are accurate or biased towards one candidate?..And instead of margin of error, I will say that throughout history the polls have never been 100% accurate. Why should they be now? Use a different term to describe when results are di9fferent than predicted and we'll use that.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 09:18 AM) There could easily be a number of people in lifelong Republican families lying to pollsters saying that they're voting McCain because their spouse is in the room during the call. They can just as easily vote Obama when in the privacy of the voting booth without their die-hard Republican spouse ever knowing. Exactly. And that is a bedrock principle of polling, that those errors are equal on both sides, therefor having accurate results.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 08:21 AM) Who on earth wants the approval of a random phone pollster? If anything, people are liable to lie to piss them off, more than the other way around. OK. So are they lying and saying McCain or Obama to piss them off? Bottom line, there are margins of error in all polls. I believe these margins are actually in Obama's favor and we'll see McCain on election day with better than poll numbers for the reasons I mentioned. Do you believe the polls will be 100% accurate? Or favor one candidate or the other?

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 08:36 AM) So after hundreds, if not thousands, of polls over the past few months you're saying that time and time again people keep lying. And enough of them keep doing so that it's actually McCain who's leading in most of these polls? I find that a little hard to believe. No, I am saying that there are reasons why legitimate polls post margins of error, it is factored in that people are not always truthful in their responses. Further, there is some error based on sample populations. My hunch is we will find that more McCain supporters lied and said Obama than Obama supporters lying and saying McCain. Pollsters are hoping that people will lie both ways and it will balance, and it does in most polls. Looking at the sample sizes on many of those polls, it would take dozens of people to sway those polls, not tens of thousands. I also believe there will be a late push towards McCain. I do think Obama would have won if the election was a couple weeks ago.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:51 AM) That's the fear factor I've been talking about. But at this point, Obama's leads where it matters are so dominant, I don't think the fear factor can overcome them. Obama wins in a tighter than polled race. Not fear at all. It's the same phenomenon that had people telling surveys they are watching Masterpiece Theater when they are watching Dukes of Hazard. Imagine polling people on their masturbation habits. In the words of House, "people lie". In this case, perhaps not out of fear but out of wanting the pollster's approval.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:50 AM) Oh jeez, I hope no one is actually using internet blogs/board comments, etc., to show who is winning. That would be a little ridiculous. I think it goes to explaining the "buzz" that is clearly Obama around electronic communications. We are all informal pollsters. We hear from friends and coworkers who they are voting for. We read comments on message boards. We read some of the professional polls, then make predictions.And that is what this thread is really all about. If not, just average all the polls and we all should have the exact same prediction.

What is your technique for frozen at home? I just can not get the right consistency. I'm holding off on the $300 margarita machine. And besides the obvious alcohol kick, what flavoring role does the overproofed rum play in recipes? I am always tempted to substitute the 151.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 06:43 AM) non-internet using? Most polls are conducted by phone. I think he was referring to what seems like a landslide because the people we hear from on forums, emails, etc.

McCain. Pollsters will say later that respondents were afraid to appear as racist by not picking Obama but once they were in the privacy of the voters booth, they pulled hard for McCain.

I went to an Abnormal Psy class after a pitcher of beer. It happened to be a night with a presentation on the Rorschach (Ink Blot Test),

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 09:16 AM) After 15 minutes I was rooting for the Ocean.

Titanic About fifteen minutes in I started thinking, I have three more hours of this s***?!

.88 difference. Someone tell me again why having states lower their taxes during higher prices is a bad thing for consumers?

Woo Woo $1.99 in South Texas yesterday 10-22-08

My Scout list took this seriously, 12-Year-Old Boy Scouts Volunteer To Give Women Breast Exams