Vance Law

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 8, 2015 -> 07:07 PM) So you're basically saying you cannot quantify the effect of the manager on the team, and so thus you don't care whether you have a manager you deem to be good or bad? You will ignore any circumstantial evidence solely because you cannot directly link it to manager. Therefore the correct conclusion is just to do nothing. If a manager does have an effect on the play of the ball club, is it safe to say that we cannot identify any good effects he has on the club, based on their play? Is that not enough? With the team angling for historically bad team WAR for position players is it not a minor miracle that the team is just 7 under .500? Is the fact that Robin has the team outperforming it's pythagorean expected wins by 6 not circumstantial evidence of his excellent managing?

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 8, 2015 -> 05:34 PM) Drapes? no - margins between wins and losses are tiny. Yes, managing matters a little, or the title wouldn't exist or pay so well. Meathead? Debatable. The margin between this team's offense and league average is not tiny. Are you blaming Ventura for the baseball players' hitting? Are you blaming Ventura for rostering the following subpar (to awful) defenders: Micah Johnson Conor Gillaspie Avi Garcia Jose Abreu Melky Cabrera

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 8, 2015 -> 04:10 PM) From time to time, there are weird dips like this, but there is a reason why Coors Field is always at the top and AT&T Park is always at the bottom, and it doesn't have to do with the Giants or Rockies roster makeup. So why can't we just put Coor's at the top and AT&T at the bottom permanently and not change them unless the dimensions of the park are changed?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 8, 2015 -> 05:17 PM) I'm not defending him, I'm just frustrated that everyone has concluded that he is the issue and that firing him will solve the team's problems. I'm not saying he's good, I'm just saying I don't think he matters. or at least there's no evidence to suggest he's causing this team to play poorly. Exactly. The house is burning down and there is a mob of meatheads complaining that they don't like the color of the drapes.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jul 7, 2015 -> 10:30 PM) Even in that small sample size of 210 innings, there were 2 2B who were on pace for worse defensive seasons. Rickie Weeks (-23.5) and Javiar Baez (-28.7). The worst since 2002 (when UZR/150 started being tracked) has been 2011 Bill Hall at an ASTOUNDING -43.8 UZR/150 in nearly 400 innings!! So worst 2B defensive season of all time? Not even close. And Baez is back in AAA and Weeks was DFA's by the Mariners.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jul 7, 2015 -> 10:04 PM) I still think they gave up on Micah way too quickly. Was his defense really costing us a lot of runs? I really can't recall him be THAT horrible in order to sacrifice him for a .160 hitter He wasn't a .160 hitter when he came up. He was hitting .344 with an .833 OPS. This was also when the team had a more reasonable claim to bing in contention this year. When the team has to give up (trading Smarje) I'm sure they'll bring up Micah and maybe others.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 30, 2015 -> 01:26 PM) 9th inning HR for Kottaras. 1-0 On Davidson, I know he's not part of the future, but neither is Beckham or Gillaspie. Maybe in August and September they give him a look, and see what they have there. For a bad team, it isn't going to hurt anyone. Sox should dump Flowers, bring up Kottaras to back up Soto. Davidson will never be as valuable a hitter as Gordon Beckham and obviously not in the same league defensively. That's not good. Maybe, maybe he's useful on a big league roster as a platoon 3B/1B/DH. That would require first getting the left-handed 3B who is better than Gillaspie. If they haven't dumped Alexei, I'd rather they bring up Saladino to get at bats and man 3rd base. He might actually provide value by playing SS/2B in the future. Edit: Kottaras with 6 home runs in 22 games and an OBP close to .500. Trade LaRoche.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 08:18 AM) And that's management's response to cover for Ventura. That he overachieved and ALMOST won Manager of the Year in 2012. The problem with this particular line of defense is that it also opens up the front office to even more questioning...if the talent level from a "near playoff" team in 2012 has degraded so badly, whose fault is that, then, precisely? The 2012 team featured: A career year for Pierzynski. 27 home runs, .827 OPS The final year of vintage Konerko. .857 OPS The final year of excellent Rios, .850 OPS DeAza's best full season, 2.5 WAR an in-season trade for YOUK!, .771 OPS in 80 games w/ White Sox Tank Viciedo's best season, 1.0 WAR Most improved Adam Dunn, 41 HR .800 OPS NONE of those players ever reached those heights again. Most not even close, 4 are not playing major league baseball now. You also got standard issue, non-crater seasons from Alexei and Gordon, something Alexei might not be capable of anymore. As Hahn has stated many times, they knew they'd have to shift away from that old core and rebuild at some point soon. And the team showed them when the next year.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 02:06 PM) So help me out here, since 2006 here are the players I came up with that were drafted by the White Sox and played any appreciable amount of time with the big league team. I may be missing some...and of course it may not be fair to not include minor league players who were traded for, but the player development picture remains pretty bleak in my opinion. I left Frank off intentionally. There are a lot more pitchers drafted that the Sox have had success with, like Buehrle, Hudson, McCarthy, Richards and Sale. And like I said, when minor league trades are factored in, the likes of Garland, Jenks, Danks and Cotts. But when it comes to position players, I just don't see it, even with minor league trades. The biggest names might be Flowers and Gillaspie. Notable pitchers you left out: Hector Santiago Nate Jones Jake Petricka Addison Reed I think an important thing to note is that since 2000. Here are the position players taken in the top 15, the first half of the first round. Joe Borchard 2000, 15 Brian Anderson 2003, 15 Gordon Beckham 2008, 8 Courtney Hawkins 2012, 13 That's 4 in 16 years. They have tended to draft pitchers first, and they have not had high draft picks until the last 2 years (Rodon, Fulmer) other than Beckham. They have not been great. They have also not had the opportunity to draft the top talent. The Royals for example got Butler #14, Gordon #2, Moustakas #2, Hosmer #3. That's what can happen if your team stinks for 20 years.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 06:37 PM) Trading LaRoche would clear the DH spot and allow for Avi & Melky to rotate between LF & DH. Not ideal IMO but better over our current alignment if you can find a plus defender for RF (Thompson or trade/free agency). Yes, I said same yesterday. If we start selling, the shortest contracts are Shark, Alexei, Danks (no one's buying) and LaRoche. Half a season of a try-out for Trayce or someone else picked up in a trade would seem to be a good idea. It would seem to be a good strategy to have DH open, allowing for 10 regulars instead of 9, when you are in a rebuild/hoping to bring up young prospects.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 06:52 PM) There's only one problem with this... If he's leading the league or close to leading the league in OF assists, where do we expect his positive defensive improvement to come from? There are a ton of balls dropping in front of him because he's not comfortable going back on the ball. The White Sox are literally forcing/benching Eaton to change his defensive positioning due to not playing shallow enough. Even when he's in doubles-prevent defense, he's taking the wrong routes and not cutting off balls before they get to the wall. Any ball up in the air is an adventure, with one exception...the balls down the foul line or where he has to run a long long distance to get to them and get can up a full head of steam going in a defined direction. But initial reads and first step/false steps, he and Eaton are practically brothers out there in that regard this year. Say what you will about Dayan Viciedo, but his 2012 season at least showed he had the potential to put one full season together defensively, to the point where he wasn't hurting the team out there and came up with quite a few positive plays. In the end, they will live with his OF defense, but he's got to be more selective at the plate....fewer K's, more walks, more XB hits and not so many singles. Yeah, I hear you. I don't know where the improvement comes from other than 'get better at the stuff you're bad at.' He might not improve too much, in which case the hope is 'get better at hitting' and potentially a move to left field where he's causing less advancement from 2nd to 3rd.

QUOTE (Real @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 07:28 PM) yup, we can't groom young hitters, haven't been able to in decades this is a fundamental problem in this organization and it's actually pathetic that it hasn't been fixed yet, embarrassing really He's hit better for the Sox than he did for the Tigers.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 12:31 PM) I was somewhat surprised yesterday when I noticed that Avi's OPS has dropped to the very low 700's. I guess I shouldn't be though, as his recent free fall has been apparent to anybody paying attention. After digging a little deeper, I realized that I shouldn't be shocked at all. Across the last 3 seasons (all over 100 PA), Avisail has been the model of consistency. Not only has been a below replacement level player in all 3 seasons, but his wOBP, wRC+, K%, etc. have stay almost completely constant. He may be young and have plenty of room to grow still, but through 760 PA, it's likely we are seeing the player Avisail will always be. Coming back to Earth a little bit, I was interested in seeing how he compared to some other White Sox. I immediately regretted this decision. When comparing Avi's numbers against fan favorite Dayan Viciedo, I came to a very sobering realization: Avisail is a younger version of Dayan Viciedo. Don't believe me? Here are their career numbers: Avisail Garcia 760 PA 5.1 BB% 23.4 K% .132 ISO .272 AVG .316 OBP .403 SLG .316 wOBP 97 wRC+ -1.6 WAR Dayan Viciedo 1798 PA 5.3 BB% 21.6% .170 ISO .254 AVG .298 OBP .424 SLG .315 wOBP 95 wRC+ -0.9 WAR While he could make up ground over his next 1000 PA, Avi is largely the same player as Viciedo, maybe even slightly worse. His only positive UZR is in LF, a position in which the White Sox have never even tried him. I hope that the White Sox are smart enough to no longer be blinded by potential with Avi this offseason, there is nothing suggesting he is an ascending talent. It is either time to move him or utilize him in a different role. He has played basically one full season with the Sox (via parts of 3 seasons). In 153 games he has hit .272/.317/.414/.731 with 19 HR 79 RBI 42XBH 10 SB (in 18 tries). Those numbers at the plate look fine to me for a 22 - 24 year old during a period of time where the average MLB OPS is about .708. Garcia's usefulness as a starting outfielder will hinge on whether or not he can take his hitting up a notch and his fielding up 2 or 3 notches. As he currently stands, he is not proven to be a building block for the future but his athleticism allows for the possibility he'll improve in the OF in a way that Viciedo was never going to and his approach at the plate makes him more hitter than just whiffing slugger. Tank was given 3 full seasons to try to improve. We'll see where Garcia's at after his first full one is done in September (yes, September, I'm saying it here, this team will not make the playoffs).

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 07:41 AM) Doubt you get a catcher for Shark. I think you get a solid prospect like an OF or 2B. Q would bring a Catcher+ in offseason. We gave up Phegley (along with Semien, Bassit, Ravelo) for Shark. And Phegley has been better than every White Sox position player including Abreu (according to Fangraphs).

Some interesting thoughts in here. If most every player managed some semblance of normal to good, this team could have contended. Obviously that didn't happen with most of the position players cratering, Shark's struggles, Danks being Danks. Good news is that the pitching is pretty much set for the foreseeable years (unless there's a rash of injuries) with Erik Johnson and Fulmer likely moving into the rotation within the next year, plus guys like Nate Jones, Crain, Montas and Danish who'll filter into the bullpen or potentially rotation if things break well. If we end up with a surplus of rotation guys a couple of years from now, flip one (maybe Quintana) for a position in need. I think we can assume Abreu, Eaton, Avi, and Melky are here next year. You'd hope you could get some approximation of an average second baseman out of Micah, Sanchez, or Saladino. I'd like to see them shop LaRoche in July. Should be able to get something worthwhile with his year and a half remaining. Open up the DH spot and have Avi, Melky, Abreu cycle through there. Bring up Trayce, play him around the outfield and see if we have anything there. Obviously move Shark. Hopefully get a young starting catcher or 3B and plug him in for the rest of the season. Dump Alexei, Bonifacio to whoever you can. In the offseason there will be money to spend filling maybe a couple of black holes (3B or SS). In 2017 there's more money available with Danks gone and hopefully Tim Anderson is ready. By then we'll know whether or not Avi is our right fielder and if anyone is our second baseman.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 07:16 PM) We can simply toss out 2011 (which, as you noted, no White Sox fan can do) and simply look at 2012-2014. .214 avg, 772 OPS, 32.3 homers, 82 RBI's, 84 walks per season, 190 strikeouts. Every year from 2007-2010, he was at an 889 OPS or higher (in the NL). His average was 914.5. So you're talking about a 16% decrease in performance, once again, throwing out 2011...so the question becomes, if you looked at those numbers (for three years), the fact that it was for a DH who lowered the DRS numbers whenever he took the field, how much would you be willing to pay for that level of production? $6 million? $8 million? $10 million? Would you even want that player at all? So you have a high strikeout slugger in his 30s who never hit for average who saw a decline in his final 4 years before retiring.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 07:13 PM) Except as a cumulative or composite whole, that's not telling you anything, either. You'd have to look at each individual, their age at the time they switched leagues, their relative or weighted "expectations" (for example, isn't it reasonable to assume LaRoche, Samardzija or Dunn should produce XYZ result, compared to, say, Bonifacio or Jennings?) A good point. It would tell you something if there were some very clear trends with one league or the other or with all players faring poorly at first for example. I wouldn't expect to find that. If there were any trends for particular teams I would assume that the richest teams who pay out the most exorbitant contracts get the best results in the immediate years. And also those contracts are virtually always a complete disaster in their final years. I do not assume that White Sox free agent signings fare any worse than other teams relative to their reasonable expectations. I think in some White Sox fans minds, anything bad (Adam Dunn's horrible 2011) disproportionately contorts their perception and remains while anything that counters that (Adam Dunn's 41 home run .800 OPS 2012) is immediately discarded. And how is this accounted for in that fan's narrative? "White Sox sign a free agent and he is immediately terrible because he's on the White Sox and only bad things happen to my team. The White Sox coaches and the ballpark and bad karma and the temperature of the locker room and the GM's poor decision making conspire to make that player instantly terrible. And when in the next season he hits the 6th most home runs in the history of the ball club, that is explained by what? In the offseason he talked to his old coaches from another team who reminded him how to be good at hitting and to do the opposite of what White Sox coaches were telling him?

Rather than the question being asked, I'd be more interested to know how all players fare upon switching from one league to the other. Not interested in what it kinda sorta seems like players do, but rather actual data on the topic.

Have there been any reports on what the hell is exactly wrong with Alexei? He looks like he's gone off his meds or something. Just playing badly and that has snowballed and messed him up mentally?

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 09:57 AM) I would throw in Avi too. They haven't committed to him contractually, but they have committed with playing time, and as bad as he is, I have to think his deficiencies were evident when they traded for him. Yes, and it's clear their hope is that with his athleticism and youth, he'll improve. That will or won't happen. He'll either hit and defend enough to be worthwhile or he won't, but he has to be given some time to do that and obviously missing most of last year pushed that timeline back.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:42 AM) Whether it was the pressure of the extension (self-inflicted?), Eaton's "disappearance" has been the most troubling aspect for the future, as he was supposedly the "straw that stirs the drink." He's played some bad defense and some boneheaded plays. He appears to be an idiot. But he has hit quite well over the past 2 months- .268/.343/.393/.737 (prob closer to about .750 OPS including today's 2 for 4). I'm not too concerned about his ability to play, just to get his head out of his ass.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:39 AM) And with that said, when is the LAST TIME the Sox caught lighting in a bottle? Jose Abreu? And I don't think you can consider 100 plate appearances of Josh Phegley or any player as lightning in a bottle. QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:39 AM) Every. Single. FA. that has come here has gotten worse or at best stayed roughly the same. A few (Melky, Dunn) have been historically awful. How the f*** does that keep happening? Coaching. Scouting. Both at the same time, poor all of it. I don't know what sport you are watching, but most free agents don't suddenly get better unless prior to that they sucked. Players tend to peak in their late twenties. They become free agents in their late twenties and early thirties.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:21 AM) We knew that Phegley could hit (he went on a tear the first 2-3 weeks up with the White Sox) but that he was incredibly limited defensively. We also knew that he would strike out a lot. He had 52 K's in 241 Ab's (21.6%) with the Sox. He's cut that down to 12 in 91 AB's with the A's (13.2%). I don't think with his .221 OBP with the Sox in 250 plate appearances anyone assumed he'd hit remotely like this and that includes Billy Beane. That said, he will come back down to earth.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 24, 2015 -> 11:17 PM) And the catching situation is the most glaring. Until that problem is fixed, and we bring in a real leader with a strong personality who can control the game defensively (at least), then we're stuck in neutral if not going backwards because we're wasting AB's on players that aren't part of the future. Soto has actually been worth .5 WAR, (tied with AJP for #19) which is why he's playing a lot more now. The bad news: Josh Phegley is worth 1.2, #9 in baseball. Any person who says they saw that coming is full of 100% s***.

QUOTE (kwill @ Jun 24, 2015 -> 11:36 PM) There is definitely risk here but it he is high upside bat that we desperately need as it is illegal for a scout in our organization to scout a position player who hits. Jose Abreu