Vance Law

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 11:55 PM) For LF improvement .. it sickens me that it looks like DeAza is good. Is it the environment on the South Side that made him such a stiff in Chicago? He's doing fine in Baltimore. Should we re-acquire him after he earns this ring in Baltimore? O's looking amazing in rout of Detroit. When De Aza was hitting .301 with a .778 OPS in his last 65 games in Chicago, you simply chose to ignore it.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 04:52 PM) But I just find it hard to believe any team would select Tyler Saladino at all, and certainly not when he's going to miss at least a month and has had TJ surgery. He's a DFA guy for me, I just don't see any significant claim risk with him. Would you be interested in a 24 year old shortstop who put up an .850 OPS in half a season at AAA if it meant playing him less than Leury Garcia played this year?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 04:45 PM) Not really. A rule 5 pick has to spend a large majority of the season on the active roster, otherwise their roster requirements carry over to the next year. It is actually only 90 days. So Saladino missing time on the DL actually makes him more attractive. A team with no plans on contending could certainly managed to have him as a utility infielder for 90 days.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 05:09 PM) Jones and Paulino need to be re-instated to the roster so the roster is effectively at 40 until Paulino's option is declined. I think we can forget about Paulino and Belisario, so they've got 38 guys.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) I know the Sox are stacked with right handed hitters but I would love to know what the FO thinks about Tomas. He's young and at the age that fits into the core they are looking for. Going by the link ss2k5 provided ( thank you again), Tomas doesn't sound like much of an outfielder so I'm not sure how much interest the Sox would have unless there was a platoon with he and Abreu switching off between 1B and DH. If evaluators are split between him being somewhere between Viciedo and Cespedes, I don't think we want that for $70 million.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 12:38 AM) Hahn has been successful with one of four free agents. He's going to have to go 4/5 to be successful in 2015....see 2013 Red Sox offseason. I'm sorry, but this distinction is beyond bizarre. There is no rationale for choosing to distinguish between trades and free agent signings among Hahn's moves other than a predetermined desire to complain about stuff. Anybody (including you) can clearly see the difference between the signings of cheap bullpen arms or scrap heapers like Paulino, Downs, and Belisario vs. Abreu- the largest free agent contract ever offered by the White Sox. There is a difference between a deal where the GM is legitimately giving up important, valuable things like $68 million or a starter in your rotation (Santiago) or your closer (Reed) or a starter in your rotation (Peavy) and ones where you are rolling the dice because the stakes are so low (the aforementioned s***ty pitchers). So complain about Abreu and Eaton and Avisail if you choose to, but lumping in Abreu with those pitchers is pretty silly.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 11:42 PM) 16th without Dunn playing in one of the top 2 home run parks in baseball. 10th in OPS 20th in OBP This was not a good offensive team. It was average. But Dunn was playing. And they'll have player(s) replacing him next year.

Tied for 7th in baseball in home runs this year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 09:36 PM) You absolutely, positively, cannot trade for Alvarez with that even on your mind. Absolutely not. No no no no no no no. He's got one of those major mental blocks right now. Those have ruined people's careers before. He's got some ability to cover things as 1b to potentially save his career, but there's no amount of practice, no tricks, no time with the trainer that's going to fix it. You can't even have him display that he's over it in practice because it's not a game. If you're trading for him its because you are wiling to put him at DH/1b. You may well never even try him at 3b once. Agreed. I would be very interested to see the intersection of people who HAAAATED Adam Dunn but would want to get Pedro Alvarez on the team because I bet there are some.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 07:19 PM) You replied before I completed some edits. The formula they use does not really do the adjustment you talk about, the way the formula is calculated it is highly dependent on the production of the players behind them and how often they actually score, which can be inherently flawed because someone with great speed and a good baserunner could have had poor hitters behind him and thus never scored many runs where another guy could have had a plus player behind him and even though he was slow as molasses he scored at a higher percentage because the guys behind him were very productive. That is an extremely limited view they are applying. No. They use the percentage of times (for example) a player takes an extra base as compared to the league average. Not merely the raw numbers.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 07:00 PM) Look into the detailed components that go into those calculations, in no way shape or form do I see anything being applied that would negate for the speed factor of a player and thus adjustments that should be made to the run coefficient based upon speed tools nor is there an adjustment / factor for strikeout to out at least not that is defined. And the first variable would be extremely difficult to actually figure out as you can't just use pure speed times as there are many aspects that go into baserunning from jumps to secondary leads to just being a good runner. This is all of that base running data http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/...g-batting.shtml I'm pretty sure this base running data goes into their WAR calculation. Nice improvements by De Aza this year over his bad 2013.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 12:07 AM) It's only Downs, Paulino, Keppinger and Abreu. So 3/4 have sucked, lol. The rest were under-the-radar, waiver wire, NDFA's, guys like Boggs/Cleto/Putnam/Noesi/Sierra/Taylor, etc. But then Downs put up a 3.14 ERA with the Royals. The only logical explanation is that Hahn was a terrible GM when he got Downs because of the possibility that Ventura would make him pitch bad but then Ned Yost would make him pitch good. The smarter move was bringing on Noesi because Ventura would make him pitch pretty well and be a very valuable innings-eater. But for the life of me, I can't figure out why they don't just tell ALL of these crapshoot, scrapheap no money low-risk players to play well.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 10:16 AM) What would the Sox give the Pirates? That's a team that values its young assets very highly. He also strikes out a fair amount and he was banged up this year. It also took a few tries for him to find success in AAA. Frankly, I'm not sure how much of a better option he is than Jordan Danks or Andy Wilkins from the left side of the plate. Are you willing to give up Chris Beck or Tyler Danish for him? Because that's what it might cost. Partly playing devil's advocate, partly playing realist. I like Lambo but I'm not sure he is a guy that should be on the Sox radar. I would probably take him for Viciedo, but why would the Pirates want Viciedo? To be honest I don't know what it would take to get him. But either he is blocked, or the Pirates pretty much need to unload Alvarez and Davis. He was moved primarily to 1B because he was blocked by their outfield. Hit 32 homers in the minors in 2013, .920 plus OPS the last 2 years, and what he has over Wilkins is he plays the outfield. I'd think he would come cheaper than Brandon Belt who some have suggested moving back to OF. Could be the Pirates plan to keep him and get rid of Alvarez and Davis to save money. Could be we don't match up with anything for them trade wise. With LF and DH available, he seems like the kind of left-handed OF power bat we could use.

Andrew Lambo. Somebody shoot me down.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 29, 2014 -> 01:53 PM) Chase Headley playing the majority of time in LF is not a solid idea. He is a GG like 3B. The one thing he is best at on the baseball field is 3B defense. If we got Headley, he should be starting at 3rd. Conor then should be traded or part of a DH platoon and backup 3B/1B. You can hope for Headley to return to form at the plate, but if you're one of the people who was unimpressed with Gillaspie's offense, you're sure not going to like Headley putting up another .700 OPS at 3B.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 09:00 PM) FYI, two players Rick and co. have big board eyes on are Ackley (LF) & Butler (DH). Can you tell them about my Andrew Lambo idea? thnx, bro.

Here's a dude who is blocked in Pittsburgh. Andrew Lambo http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...id=lambo-001and Just turned 26 but he missed a whole year with an injury. Anybody know much else about this guy? Edit: The more I look at the numbers the more I like his potential. Seems like he was pushed above his age level and was a top 100 guy early. Missed his age 23 year with a wrist injury, and put up .900 plus OPS his two years since returning. With LF and DH openings, this seems like just the sort of left handed power bat to target. He's got no future in Pittsburgh with Marte, McCutchen, Polanco, Davis, Sanchez, Alvarez there.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:24 PM) In what ? Was Jeter 22 in 96 ? Was Vizquel an every day SS at 42 in 2007 ? Can't compare range between a regular and a part timer when range won't hold up playing every day at 42. Defensive metrics don't prove squat, thats why I said prove it. I'm supposed to know you're being hyberbolic how again ? If you're making a point saying how Alexei will age you should stick to facts. Hyberbole in order to make a point just comes off as not believing in your position enough to state the truth or facts. Buddy, c'mon for chrissakes. I didn't necessarily know if Vizquel actually had better range precisely at age 42 than Jeter did at age 22. I didn't think a sentence like that would read like something I was swearing my life to, but I would stand behind the more general point that Vizquel waaaayyy late in his career still was better defensively than Jeter at his most athletic (or virtually any time in his career). Looks like Vizquel was not a full timer at 42, no. But at age 40 he was and Fangraphs has him at his career best defensive season at 30.2. Other defensive metrics agree, UZR of 23.9. etc., etc. Yes, Jeter was 22 in '96.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:14 PM) You are odd. Wow. Maybe Hahn should be looking for all guys over 32 instead of young guys. All athletes are not the majority of athletes. Yea duh that's why I said the majority instead of all. Play the odds he's a SS not a 1st baseman. The position demands just a bit more athleticism which does not increase with age. Besides like Eminor I love the guy and if we can sign my free agents there's really no need to trade him. But like I said I'm leaning in the trade direction knowing the Sox won't sign 3 free agents. I'm actually not odd. Obviously signing only players over 32 is a bad idea and not something Hahn would/should do. It's also not a coherent "argument" for why any particular 32 year old is a good or bad idea. You stated, as if it were fact, that "speculating on how Alexei will age is pointless." That's an odd thing to say. Speculating on how Alexei will age, I'd bet he's a better defensive shortstop than Semien, Sanchez, or Anderson for the next 4 years. Sanchez has quickness and hands but nowhere near the arm that allows Ramirez to make plays. Semien seems a work in progress in all defensive facets, and Anderson has played all of 10 games at AA and had 34 errors in 82 games this year. I say all of this as someone who thinks either option, keep or trading Alexei both have merit.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) Edit; Also Jeter at 22 didn't have Omar's range at 42 ? Please ,that is outlandish. Feel free to prove it. I was being hyperbolic I thought, but lo and behold: Fangraphs gives Jeter a -5.5 in 1996 Fangraphs gives Omar an 11.2 in 2007

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) That's all anyone needs to understand. No it isn't. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) Speculating on how Alexei will age is pretty pointless. No it isn't QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) The older he gets the less he is worth. He's better this year, one year older, than he was last year. The more his time under-contract decreases, the less he is worth in trade, but if there is intention to extend him, that is irrelevant. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) It's that simple. No it isn't QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) Time is not on the majority of athlete's side after 32. All athletes are not the majority of athletes.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 08:26 PM) How can you not get it ? Jeter isn't lasting til 42 . Jeter at 22 didn't have Alexei's range at 32, nor Vizquel's range at 42. Put me in the camp that says I don't think Alexei's defense is going to degrade much in the next few years. Agreed, now is prob the peak time if you're going to trade him. Signing him to an extension is also a reasonable thing to do. Their is logic on both sides of the Alexei debate. it could well be that the Sox see him as a core, must-have guy. Perhaps especially if we are breaking in a new second baseman and have average-at-very-best Gillaspie or even Davidson (yikes!) in the next few years.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 04:13 PM) They are a glut, but this isn't a bunch of top 100 prospects we are talking about. Well, technically, Semien was BA's #91 this year. Sanchez was Fangraphs #64 in 2012 and probably put himself back in the conversation with his very good season as the International League's 6th youngest player (Semien 9th youngest, Micah 10th). The importance of these lists, however, can be demonstrated by the fact that Eric Johnson and Matt Davidson were both higher than Semien on BA's list this year. We can all agree trading Alexei is a downgrade at SS. He's really good, which is why he'd bring back a lot in a trade.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 02:10 PM) The wait for Tim Anderson crowd is hopeful because otherwise we are severely downgrading our SS position for no reason except that something different is always better than what you have. I don't think anyone thinks "something different is always better than what you have." We have a glut of middle infield options. Ramirez will prob never have more trade value than he does this offseason and he would bring in some serious prospects/players. I'm not necessarily for trading Ramirez, but there is rationale.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:17 AM) Won't happen. Either we get a good starting catcher on the market somewhere (trade probably) or Flowers/Nieto/Phegley are the catchers next year. They aren't going to bring in a back up when they already have cheap back ups on the roster. I feel pretty certain Nieto will be starting full-time at Birmingham or Charlotte. I kind of think Phegley will be moved, but we'll see.