JUGGERNAUT

I had to service a call & heard them yelling "Crede" in the background. How many R did his fielding muff cost & what would the score have been if he had fielded it properly?

Please. You're drinking WAY TOO MUCH Santana kool-aid. There's a helluva a LOT more than 4 starts over his career pointing out his fragility. Not just in a game but in a season. 04 Pre-AS 3.78ERA, 7W-6L 123IP, Pos-AS 1.21ERA, 13W-0L 104IP 03 Pre AS 3.00ERA, 4W-2L 72IP, Pos-AS 3.13ERA, 8W-1L 86.1IP 02 Pre AS 2.46ERA, 4W-1L 40.1IP, Pos-AS 3.31ERA, 4W-5L 68.0IP 01 Pre AS 4.64ERA 1W-0L 42.2IP, Pos-AS 9.00ERA, 0W-1L 1.0IP What do you find in those numbers that strongly suggests both greatness & durability?

Nice ending. Especially when the dietary expert made that unambiguous statement. Hawk was right to interview him that day. It also serves as a reminder to all of us not to believe 100% everything we read. They misquoted the expert but if Bo doesn't call it out we'd have never know that.

It's much better than that. He's 14-7 lifetime & 7-4 in 04. I think the key w/out a doubt to beating Santana is drive up his pc. Be like Jeremy Reed & foul the pitches off as long as you can. Just try to prolong your AB. That's not a bad strategy to take against power pitches like Santana. If we do that I'm confident will win. Buehrle doesn't give you that option because his stuff his filthy. When he's making his pitches it's not easy to foul them off. That's why he works so fast. His success or failure resides on his making the pitches & getting the calls & there's not a heck of a whole lot a batter can do against that.

This might explain Santana's early exit in his 1st start: He fell behind Ford but got him to GO in the bot 4th. He fell behind Ichiro but got him to GO. J Reed consumed 11 pitches before racking up a K. He fell behind Beltre before getting him to FO. It looks to me like he was running out of gas. I looked at the other 4 starts & though the game logs aren't available there is the PC-ST totals. In all of them he had about a 30+ margin between balls & strikes. That might suggest a similar scenario. It would certainly explain why he left a do or die game vs the NYY after 5IP, leading 4-1 w an 87pc. The NYY went on to win that game & close out the Twins 3-1 in the first round. In the game they won you have to wonder again if he ran out of gas. If your SP was sitting on a pc of 93 after 7IP nursing a 2-0 lead would you take him out for Rincon? The other day El Duque was sitting at a 90 pc & Ozzie had him go out & pitch another inning. I think if you feel your starter has anything left you're going with him in the 8th. Ozzie would surely do that with Buehrle if he was at 93 after 7IN. I'm not saying Santana's anything less than a Cy Young pitcher. But I think his last 4 starts & his lifetime numbers suggest he's a fragile one. Not unlike Pedro Martinez. That's all I'm saying. That's why my top 10 list features the most durable & best pitchers at the top.

No it tells me he ran out of gas because he was taken out after a 93 pc w a 7-4 lead. If he does that tonight I'm confident the WSox will win. And considering he's hovered around a 90 pc his last 4 starts I'm not really surprised.

Santana's pc's/mo 04: Apr 450, May 554, Jun 556, Jul 648, Aug 647, Sep 563. Mark's pc's/mo 04: Apr 491, May 664, Jun 625, Jul 606, Aug 634, Sep 677 Mark has proven to be both a work horse & a good pitcher. Santana has not & his last 4 starts don't exactly suggest he will.

I don't believe any body said that. I know I didn't. I said his start in SEA coupled with his weak pc's his last 4 starts going back to 04 suggest he's not as dominating as he was in the Jun-Sep of 04. If he had pitched 5IP, 1ER in SEA I would still feel this way because it's not the same thing as his 7-8IP per start he was doing last yr.

You're likewise dreaming about his 02 & 03 #'s. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp02.htm http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp03.htm There were over a dozen guys that had the same range of innings as him who pitched better than him both years. That's when he wasn't a front line starter. No one doubts he had arguably the best 4 months (Jun-Sep) that any one's ever seen. He even continued it in the post season. But he's yet to prove he's anything close to an elite pitcher. FYI: Have you looked at his pc's the past 4 starts? Going back to 04. Apr 05 @SEA 5ip, 4ER, 94pc Oct 09 vNYY 5ip, 1ER, 87pc MIN losses Oct 05 @NYY 7ip, 0ER, 93pc Sep 29 @NYY 5ip, 1ER, 71pc MIN losses In his phenomenal months of Jun, Jul, & Aug he routinely ran a pc of 100+. Is it just possible that like Halladay his arm had a greater load than he had ever experienced in his career to date & like Halladay he might fall down a few notches in greatness this year?

Let's settle this the easiest way. It's game 7 of the WS at Yankee stadium. You can pick any arm you want to start the game. List your top 10 choices: 1-Johnson 2-Schilling 3-Clemens 4-Beckett 5-Schmidt 6-Hudson 7-Buehrle 8-Sheets 9-Pedro 10-Santana

It amazes me how some people are treating Santana. Halladay accomplished just as much & where is he now? He's still a good pitcher but he's never recaptured his Cy Young form. Santana's had one good year as a starting pitcher. He's had only 4 great months as a Cy Young pitcher. Before that he didn't even have enough innings to qualify as a front-line starter. To consider him in the same venue as Johnson is ridiculous. As far as I'm concerned he's a 4 month wonder who won the Cy Young. He'll have to prove it this year to convince me he's anything close to Johnson. As for Pedro being the best pitcher in the last decade? Please. I'll tell you what. Let's compare the best innings pitched from the other leaders to the innings Pedro pitched. He probably falls out of the top 10. He's been on the shelf so much he barely even qualified as a front-line starter in some years. The best pitcher in the last decade is probably Clemens. The post-season counts. Next to him is probably Johnson & then Schilling. These guys all have the rings, the wins, the innings, & the awards.

Why is it ridiculous? A Cy Young form implies the best in the league. Where is Santana's history that he's been able to keep that form more than 1/2 a season? He's got more than enough starts under his belt now to determine if he's going to be consistently great or occasionally great. Pedro is another pitcher that comes to mind that has yet to prove to any one he can be consistently great. I see Santana & I think of Pedro. BTW did you look at his pc (93)? Kind of odd for a guy who gives up 4ER in the 1st & then shutsout a team for the next 4 innings. Why not let him pitch another inning? Could it be he ran out of gas? The score was 7-4 at the time. Not a typical situation were you would yank your starter after the 5th. He's not invulnerable & he may not be long lasting either.

05 Uribe 47IP 20TC 5PO 14A 1E 2DP .950F% .882ZR 05 JVal 38IP 10TC 3PO 4A 3E 0DP .700F% .500ZR 05 Clayton 40IP 22TC 6PO 15A 1E 4DP .955F% .833ZR I'm pretty sure SS has a bigger zone to cover than 3B. His 882 ZR means he 's covered all but 12% of the maximum zone defined for a SS. Let's look at how it compares to the marquee names: Cabrera .864ZR Renteria .733ZR Jeter .857ZR Nomar .909ZR Tejada .667ZR Uribe .882ZR Only Nomar is getting to more balls than Uribe in that list.

05 Uribe 47IP 20TC 5PO 14A 1E 2DP .950F% .882ZR 05 JVal 38IP 10TC 3PO 4A 3E 0DP .700F% .500ZR 05 Clayton 40IP 22TC 6PO 15A 1E 4DP .955F% .833ZR His ZR is head & shoulders above Val's & better than Clayton's. Glove wise he's doing just as good a job as Clayton. He's a big part of the wins. FYI: For those who don't know ZR represents the % of balls fielded by the player in the zone for that position. If you were to define a maximum zone for SS Uribe has covered all but 12% of that zone. Clayton has covered all but 17% of that zone & Val is only covering 50% of that zone. It makes a big difference to a pitcher.

Without question it's C Lee. I witnessed his talent as a CubKilla in person both at the Cell & at Wrigley. I will always think of Carlos when they play the chi-town series.

Well that's only because I approximated his FC's for 03 & 04. If I had real numbers they would likely be different. But I think a 54 pt jump for player like Pods is significant because he represents scoring opportunities when he gets on. He can score with a DB or with a single when he steals a base. Both are likely to happen. That's something that can't be said for most of the players in the league.

This season more so than others has caused me to look even deeper into the numbers. (As if you thought that wasn't possible ). For the pitchers I'm looking at how they perform as they run up their pitch counts. Some interesting numbers there they told me a lot about our pen. For the hitters I'm looking at numbers that related to men getting on base but don't show up in the stats. Like FC's. I noticed as well that Pod's has had 14 SH (bunts & squeeze plays) over the past 2 yrs & Lee's had 0. These are the little stats that don't show up on the big board unless they result in a R or an RBI but certainly can decide the difference between a win & loss. Take last night's game. The WSox won 8-5 but 2R were scored on a Pods FC & Pods scoring w/out a hit or a runner reaching. The Score was 5-3 at the time. There was 1 out at the time. If Pods generates an out that doesn't advance the runners it's a completely different ball game. Maybe Koney doesn't hit the HR later. Maybe the game goes into extra innings tied 5-5 & maybe the WSox lose it. This is the element of small ball that Ozzie talked about & witnessed with Pierre in FL. Last night it counted. It may have been the difference between winning & losing.

But that's like saying Radke is as good as he was in the 2nd half of 04 & he's clearly not. Both these guys have a history of having weaker 1st 1/2s. In Santana's case is an mid-3 ERA in the 1st half & a mid-2 ERA in the 2nd. In Radke's case it's a mid-4 ERA in the 1st half & a mid-3 ERA in the 2nd. After there first start Mark looks better. It's important because during Santana's 14-2 run last yr he didn't have any starts as bad as he did in SEA this year. That tells me he's lost some of his Cy Young form & it might take him 1/2 a season to figure it out again.

I hear ya. It was a work in progress. I'll try to simplify it. OBP (On Base %) & Sagarin's RPG stats do NOT include AB's when a player reaches on a fielder's choice. Such AB's are simply recorded as an OUT. I feel that doesn't give an accurate measure of a player like Pods whose presence on the base pads has the highest value of any WSox player. I came up with a new stat OBPfc which includes these FC AB's. I then calculated Pods OBPfc's for 03, 04, & now 05. Approximating his FC's for 03, & 04. Pods 03 OBPfc 433 vs Pods 03 OBP (379) Pods 04 OBPfc 367 vs Pods 04 OBP (313) Pods 04 OBPfc 363 vs Pods 05 OBP (318) Now it's a question of which stat you feel better reflects his worth. I feel it's the OBPfc.

From last night's game: - S. Podsednik grounded into fielder's choice, J. Crede scored, J. Uribe out at second - S. Podsednik scored on passed ball The AB will be recorded as an OUT yet it went on to generate 2R. In Sag's RPG it's simply an OUT. RPG considers FP(W, IW, HBP), SB, CS, SH, SF, H, DB, TP, HR, OUTS, & K's. He get's no credit for the FC, no credit for advancing to 3B on the WP, & no credit for the PB because RPG doesn't factor in R's. Likewise he gets no credit for the RBI. Likewise Sag's ONBASE doesn't include times when a player reaches on a FC. In my opinion that's a mistake but I realize it's derived from the fact that FC is recorded as an both an AB & an OUT in OBP. Whether a person reaches on a FC is a factor of how difficult it is to field the ball & how fast the runners are. Typically a play in which there is no possibility for a DP is recorded as a FC. It seems to me that in terms of both OBP & ONBASE as a function of Sag's RPG a player should get credit for reaching on a FC. OBP = H+FP+RONFC. A RONFC carries more weight than a K, GO, or FO. A player should get some credit for that. Pods 03 558AB (628PA) had 175 hits, & 91K. 204GB, 148FB. BIPO = 292 Pods 04 640AB (713PA) had 156 hits, & 105K. 243GB, 167FB. BIPO = 381 BIPO (ball in-play out) = AB - H - K's. GBO (Ground ball out) Pods had GB rates of 58% (03), & 59% (04). GBO 03 = 169, GBO 04 = 225 How many of those 169 & 225 ground ball outs led to Pods reaching on a FC? How many of those RONFC's resulted in a team R? All the stats neglect this. RON splits don't help because they don't split along GB vs FB. At best you can whittle it down by applying the GB rates to RON. Pods RON 03 181AB - 60H - 20K = 101 * .58 = 59 GBO Pods RON 04 195AB - 43H - 33K = 119 * .59 = 70 GBO How many of those led to an FC or a team R? In his first 20AB Pods has 1 FC. That's a rate of 26 over 560AB. With his talent as a base stealer & runner that's 26 more scoring opportunities requiring no more than a hard hit double (if he doens't steal 2nd) or a hard hit single (if he does steal 2nd). Let's just say for sake of argument that 1/2 of his GBO's in a RON situation are RONFC's. Probably not-uncommon for the base stealing leaders. Applying that to his OBP (1- (BIPO- GBOfc + K)/PA) you get Pods 03 OBPfc = 1-356/628 = 433 vs Pods 03 OBP (379) Pods 04 OBPfc = 1-451/713 = 367 vs Pods 04 OBP (313) I'm reaching a lot here because I'm trying to approx how many FC's Pods has each year. I'm certainly not going to advertise this as a real stat or even a close assessment of his play but I want you to think about what you've seen of his play so far & ask this question: Has he looked like a player with a 318 OBP or a player w a 363 OBPfc? I feel the OBPfc is a better measure for him.

Let's not forget Mr Williams had the presence of mind to get Everett again once Thomas was put on the DL. He might have over-paid for him initially but I doubt very much if we are 4-1 with Gload in place of Thomas at DH.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/scott_podsednik.shtml Includes his ml #'s as well.

KW may be looking deeper at the numbers than most of us thought. S Pods: 03 Mil 628PA, 4.01 #p/pa, 247 TB, 2SF, 8SH, 4HBP, 2IBB, 11GIDP, 1.38 G/F 04 Mil 713PA, 3.98 #p/pa, 233 TB, 1SF, 6SH, 7HBP, 2IBB, 7GIDP, 1.46 G/F Right away TB jumps at you. He avg'd 2.45 pa / base in 03, & dropped to only a 3.06 pa / base in 04. That is not a big deal when you consider he went from being a 313 hitter to a 244 hitter in that time. What's mostly overlooked is that he increased his GB/FB ratio. The more he puts it on the ground the greater his chances of beating out a throw for a hit. FC is not the same as a SH so I still don't know how many FC he had in 04, but I do think it's worth pointing out that Lee had 0 SH over those 2 yrs.

He reached on a FC & not an error. Then he went to 3rd on a WP & scored on a PB. I wanted to stress the difference there because it's much more likely to reach on a FC than an error. Reaching on a FC I don't believe shows up in OBP so I'm going to see if I can find some stats to see how often he did this in 04. It could help explain how a 244 hitter w a 313 OBP can steal 70 bases in a year. The points you all are making are very valid though. When Pods gets on the game is elevated to another level of excitement. Both the pitchers & catchers feel that pressure & have to be thinking in thier minds that there is ZERO room for error. When you become that tight on the mound or behind the plate you are more prone to mess up.

We have to keep in mind that Dye, Everett, El Duque, & Thomas have more DL time over the past 4 yrs w the WSox than any other players. When Thomas returns Ozuna is gone. I think Ozzie has been impressed w Harris play for the most part & Harris will get more ab's & innings to solidify his bench role. But I can see how they can use Everett to spell all 3 OFers. They've mentioned more than once the idea of shifting Pods to CF on Rowand's days off. It's conceivable when Thomas returns Everett could still start 3-4 out of every 10 games. That's a good scenario to have given that Dye is more likely than not to wind up on the DL.