witesoxfan

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 04:48 PM) Probably, but the first year they have it he's at 17%, which is just a grand canyon sized gap from even league average, let alone where Viciedo is. You could regress Lee all the way to 25% and still not even be in the same league as Viciedo. Your point that Viciedo can still improve is valid and I grant it. But there's not a lot of evidence that Viciedo and Lee are all that similar in terms of zone recognition. I would be shocked if anyone ever cut their O-Swing that drastically after 1000 PAs. I don't agree with the Carlos Lee comparison either, but it gets used often. The one I use is Adrian Beltre. Here's the normal plate disciplines: Beltre- 33.1% O-Swing, 70.0% Z-Swing, 51.2% Swing; 65.5% O-Contact, 87.8% Z-Contact, 80.5% Contact Viciedo (same order)- 40.5%, 69.4%, 52.7%; 67.5%, 83.2%, 76.2% Based on this, Viciedo needs to hone in the free swinging a bit, but his contact rates are good. It's merely a matter of making more good contact. The PITCHf/x plate disciplines are eery (career rates). Beltre- 37.2%, 65.8%, 51.0%; 71.7%, 88.2%, 82.0% Viciedo- 38.1%, 67.3%, 51.8%; 65.9%, 82.7%, 76.2% They swing almost the exact same amount, but Beltre makes a little better contact. This is something where, over time, you can exhibit improvement by cutting down on the swing. The primary 2 differences between the two the GB/FB and the K%. Both hit about 19.5% line drives, but here's your GB/FB Beltre- 1.03 Viciedo- 1.43 and K% Beltre- 14.7% Viciedo- 21.5% Beltre's never really struck out, so this is the big flaw in Viciedo's game. If he can make more and better contact, well by golly gee we'll have an MVP candidate on our hands. And if Kate Upton said she wants to do me, well you get the point.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 03:10 PM) That's because you only know my mental age Usually, I think this is a pretty easy decision...but when you start talking about law or medicine, especially the latter, it becomes a very difficult one, given the residency period. You've got to be really, really sure. It's not only really sure that you want to do that, but also knowing how competitive that field is in general. You need to know for sure that you have some connections built that will allow you to get into a good post-graduate residency.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 02:59 PM) Da Coach is the only one who could possibly follow Rowand. Who can probably only be followed by Michael Jordan, or Ditka again.

QUOTE (Jake @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 02:13 PM) Yes, mainly because he objectively gave up less pressure But how much of that is because the Saints were a pass first team with 2 pass catching running backs, while the Bears did either with a very good running back?

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 01:07 PM) Take this with a grain of salt of course, but some tidbits from Keith Law's chat today. He doesn't believe Rodon is the "clear" 1-1 anymore and has been "passed by a few guys." He declined to mention specifics, citing his rankings being released next week, but said that you could make an argument for Kolek, Gatewood, Jackson, Hoffman, Beede. His rationale is that his "fastball has been average, command average or a tick below, and he's not missing bats." Said that scouts/execs are "backing away from him." As far as other top pitching prospects, he believes Hoffman is the best of the Beede, Hoffman, Kolek trio. Calls Hoffman a "plus plus athlete with easy velocity and the potential for a plus curveball." Says that Beede is the "safest" of the three and that Kolek a "monster." Very down on Trea Turner. Said he has "no power, bad swing, not physical." No sure what not physical means, this isn't football or basketball. Said that Gatewood has really improved his hit tool, using the whole field and showing a "more mature overall approach." Thinks he'll go top 5-6. I'm guessing not physical would imply that he's primarily a guy that uses his arms to swing and generate power, which works now and then, but you need hip rotation. Compare Alexei Ramirez to Miguel Cabrera. About the only two guys I can think of that have generated plus power using primarily arms and wrists are Gary Sheffield and Alfonso Soriano.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) He also rated really well in 2011 in limited reps. He's definitely an up and coming player who has the potential to be a great pass rusher. And yeah, football is always going to be a very team-dependent sport. And don't get me wrong, it's a nice, team friendly deal, just that there's always other extraneous information to consider.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 01:44 PM) Like Jake says, PFF likes Young a lot. I like that we're not going after guys with sexy sacks numbers, but advanced metrics instead. I think it's tougher to measure based on some of the metrics in football because of how much everything depends on your teammates. Julian Edelman was considered to be one of the best receivers in the league last year, but does anyone believe that, or do they chalk it up to scheme and Tom Brady? The all familiar Chris Williams was considered one of the worst guards in the league last year, but when your QB is Kellen Clemens, do you think teams are dropping 7 back on a regular basis against the Rams? No way. It's possible he's talented enough but with nothing around him, he's going to be giving up more sacks and allowing more guys by. Same thing here...Young is working along side Suh, Fairley, and Ansah. He may be a nice player, but I'm guessing those numbers are flawed a little bit because of who is playing around him.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 11:11 AM) It's like the opposite of last year's Miami streak. So you're saying Chicago's going to end it too

I've thought about this kind of thing before too. You'd have to take the time on base - whether a hit, walk, or HBP - out of the equation and remove it from OBP if the player is thrown out. It makes some sense in that you don't want to steal bases on a home run hitting team - scoring from 1st counts the same as scoring from 3rd - but you will on teams more dependent upon singles and doubles.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:39 AM) This is a fun thing to think about. "Ok, ok, greg775 likes him, so we know we'll have the fans from Lawrence behind us. Ahh s***, here's a lengthy one from witesoxfan, get ready for a dumpfest. WHo gave that asshole access to FanGraphs anyway? Oh it's free? Oh. Well whatever." "Hey guys, should we go after Ervin Santana?"

Back to the competing thing, if the Sox win 86 games, is anyone going to be too surprised? On the flip side, if they only win 72 games, is anyone going to be surprised? I won't be surprised with either. Baseball is a fickle game, and you can flip everything around simply by being luckier.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:28 AM) As far as I can tell the only member of the Sox FO who we can all definitively say does not read this board is Brooks Boyer because all his ideas are terrible and every spring this board lights up like a Christmas tree with better ideas he never uses, instead opting to go with Swisher worms and painful 15 min long infomercials featuring a gunshy Nate Jones playing hackey sack or whatever he was going to do, I don't know because I had to turn the TV off immediately before it killed me. Hahn on the other Hahnd hahaha he reads all my posts & thinks they're awesome. Kenny too. Yeah, you definitely could not possibly be any further from the truth on any of this.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) I'm always curious how people come up with their percentages. LOL, it's the "I don't think it's likely, but I think it's likelier than most people believe" type of mentality. Frankly, that number could be 10% too. I can't say 15% or 20% because that would imply that I think they are just as likely to be good as the Tigers, when that is not true.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:13 AM) Nothing, none of that, just the fact that he's still on the roster. Wite, to be honest here, and to bare my soul a bit right now, I just feel like the Sox FO reads these threads here (not so much Buddy Bell though) and especially Hahn almost certainly reads these threads. And if so then Hahn almost certainly reads every one of my posts and takes them quite seriously. Now I don't know the man or the myths, only a tiny bit of the legend, and so I don't know exactly how he would view my posts, but I do think it's likely he sees them as coming from a member of the Sox family, or a close friend or trusted advisor. And so I feel like by showing support for doing the right things like dumping Dunn I'm just playing my own little small part, for the better of the organization as a whole. I'm just trying to make this world better one day at a time here, that's all. But it's like with you, it always feels so cold, like a deli, and I don't know where the counter is or always who is working behind it and who is standing in front of it looking for something, but it's always like one of us is waiting on the other, and like one of us always has each other's number. And sometimes one of us is a turkey but actually probably not a turkey or chicken for me, just beef mostly, corned beef probably, but the fact is Adam Dunn sucks my balls and I hope he vanishes from this roster. #1) People within the Sox organization are aware of this board and do read these threads, but Rick Hahn is not one of them. He doesn't say "Hold on Kevin, I've got to check Soxtalk to see what those guys think I should do." #2) I do not believe he would take you seriously even if he did. QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:15 AM) And no he's come to accept that. Ha. Why haven't we cut this guy again? Hahn (DJ voice) you've got WORK TO DOOOOOOOO I've been over this with you 100 times and it goes right in and right out. #1) He's due $15 million. If the Sox can save some of that, it's a win. #2) The Sox are going to need him in the lineup if they are going to have a chance to compete at all.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) Uh, Scott, polarizing implies that their are strong opinions on both the like and dislike sides of the equation. I'm pretty sure only relative shades of dislike exist for Donkey among the fanbase. The sad state of pseudo-journalism. Yes, for the most part. I like Adam Dunn and he seems like a hard worker and a nice guy, but I haven't been happy with him as a player. He is what he is though.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:55 AM) If Jack Z called up Hahn and offered Ackley straight up for Dunn Hahn wouldn't have countered with Franklin he'd have countered with delirious shouts of joy and a massive coke party f*** fest MCed by Paul Konerko himself. Yeah, that's true, but that's primarily due to the contract. I just don't see where you get off thinking that Viciedo has a lot of value. The Sox don't need to trade him, given the investment they've made, but he has not been good.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:52 AM) More like don't feed the donkeys, starve them out, send them into the Arizona desert looking for water and peyote, maybe they'll come back with a new approach to hitting because obviously nothing the Sox have tried has been working. What part of Adam's Dunn game surprises you? The home runs, the walks, or the strike outs?

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:49 AM) Sox are trying to compete now? With who, the Twins? Astros? This team doesn't have a shot. So Rick Hahn is going to go to the media and say "We have no shot this year, just like we had no shot in 2008 and 2010 and 2012." You're absolutely crazy if you think they aren't going to try and compete. The Sox have been an increasingly inconsistent team over the last 8 years. The Tigers look like the favorites, but they lost some pretty substantial pieces in the offseason, have gotten a year older, and have a rookie starting at 3B for them. They are eminently beatable. I would only put the chances of the Sox winning the division at about 5%, but there's a lot of talent in both the bullpen and the rotation and the offense has upside that it didn't have last year.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 11:06 PM) I think Davidson can start up in the bigs. Which one of De Aza/Viciedo gets dealt and to whom? Davidson is going to start the year in AAA. Also, I'm not trading either Viciedo or De Aza unless the return is right, but both are rather mediocre players at this point in their careers.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:18 AM) Funny thing is, if you actually play the guy this year and he turns things around you can realistically get a very large return should you (Hahn) still believe his game/style/approach/agent/arb situation/whatever doesn't quite fit into the long-term picture. Dunn OTOH brings back nothing at any point, so if you don't get a solid deal for DeAza and if you don't get a very good deal for Viciedo then assuming you (Hahn) are not a completely incompetent fool, you dump Dunn and keep the guys who could actually bring some worthwhile players back. Pitt still needs a LH bat complement, they can have Dunn at $1M for a relief spect and an international bonus slot. Otherwise per MLBTR the Marlins according to a source might consider trading Jacob Turner for the right fit. Not sure Tank is that fit but he is a Cuban, and a deal involving pieces like that should be the type of deal you look for when considering dumping Tank. Unless of course all your best guys (Steverson more so than Bell hopefully) believe Tank is what he is and no improvements are coming. But I doubt that. So Dunn has no value, but Viciedo somehow does. As you say, the teams can see the stats.

Those splits include the worst year in the history of baseball, which is obviously an outlier. Over the past 2 years, he's at .211/.326/.455/.781 overall. In 2013, he put up a .226/.327/.459/.786 line against RHP, and in 2012 those splits were .211/.348/.469/.817. Dunn is not a physical specimen, but he does hit righties well, he does walk, and he does strike out (which is bad, but prevents a lot of DPs from happening). If the Sox can get someone to pick up even $3 mill of his salary, then it's worth it. If not, he'll ride into the sunset or onto some other team. The Sox are trying to compete, and they need Dunn to do so. You starting a new thread or talking about how much you hate Dunn every week isn't going to change that. Maybe you should just accept that and move on.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 08:46 PM) Brooklyn didn't live through Michael Jordan and a 6 title dynasty. Bulls fans should know better. They're just dumb now aka bandwagon blackhawks fans. I normally agree with even your crazy ramblings, but this is wrong. The Heat are clearly the best team in the league, even if the record doesn't indicate that, so if you can beat them in a hard fought game, it's worth getting excited about, even if it doesn't win a championship. s***, the Yankees will celebrate a walk off homer, but you're saying they shouldn't because they've won 27 world championships and it's just one of 162 games. That's ridiculous.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 04:34 PM) He's a waste of time. No

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 04:03 PM) My friend is a huge Browns fan and I seriously feel so terrible for him. Is there a team more comparable to the KC Chiefs? They have everything but good coaching and a good QB and they have done nothing to correct that. Pettine's good. The QB has yet to be resolved, but they have time to figure that out.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) What are the knocks on Gatewood? Every time I see a write-up, he sounds like a monster, yet some people are showing him falling to like 20. High bust chance and signability issues seem to be the difficulties with him.