caulfield12

Well, by the law of statistical averages, only 1-2 teams per season (plus a "fluke" also-ran or .500 team) will have a winning record against the 3-4 best teams in the league each year. Actually, this is better than losing against sub-par or inferior teams, because there are a lot more of those. If you play well over .500 against the bad teams, you can afford a below .500 record in this category. One of the reasons the White Sox struggled recently to get to the playoffs was they couldn't beat the bad or average teams/pitchers. The other factor is we have a lot of free swingers with big swings. Against great or very good pitching, only Ramirez, Quentin and a healthy Konerko match-up well at all.

Ramirez needs to be running as soon as he gets on. Dice-K is slow to the plate due to his motion and Varitek can throw about as well as Toby Hall last season. That would have given them 3 chances to drive in the runner from 2nd, not that it helped Boston last inning. This game would have been much different had Cabrera's first liner ended up as a triple. Now the next problem will be Vazquez elevating his pitch count and sitting at over 50 pitches here early in the 4th. Looks like we will have to go to Carrasco first in this game. We don't have time to mess around in this game with anything but our best relievers (if there are any!)

Ramirez needs to be running as soon as he gets on. Dice-K is slow to the plate due to his motion and Varitek can throw about as well as Toby Hall last season. That would have given them 3 chances to drive in the runner from 2nd, not that it helped Boston last inning. This game would have been much different had Cabrera's first liner ended up as a triple. Now the next problem will be Vazquez elevating his pitch count and sitting at over 50 pitches here early in the 4th. Looks like we will have to go to Carrasco first in this game. We don't have time to mess around in this game with anything but our best relievers (if there are any!)

Vazquez has been missing on his locations. The first two sequences all featured either curves or change-ups that were hanging on the inside of the plate when they were called outside. Fortunately, the hitters were looking outside and/or for fastballs. Should have used a slider low and away on Bay but got away with it because his bat was slowed down by the offspeed stuff.

Especially against Dice-K at home in Boston. You can't just assume we're going to put up 3-5 runs against him. The Red Sox are injured, with Lugo, Beckett, Lowell and Drew out. That helps. Of course the "no name" pitcher tomorrow will probably cruise against the Sox and Wakefield, coming off an injury, will throw a shutout with 9 K's. I'm just hoping 1-2 in Boston and the Twins only go 2-1 in Oakland. Cooper said Linebrink could be back as soon as Wednesday if the simulated game goes well Monday.

Slowey, Liriano and Baker, arguably their three best pitchers, are all lined up for the rest of the series, so I wouldn't be shocked if they were able to win all three. Still, we were hoping they would go under .500 on the road trip, and they're currently at 3-5. Does anyone know whether Burnett or Halladay will get them next week? I think for them to finish 4-2 and end up at 7-7 wouldn't surprise anyone...perhaps the best we could expect. But they're going to have to work now to get it done, and things certainly look better for the Sox than they did after the first two Angels games. Crain is about to officially enter the Twins' doghouse for the rest of the season. That leaves Guardado, Guerrier, Reyes and Breslow to get outs...it's nice to have three lefties in the pen, but they don't have a reliable RH reliever, just like the Sox right now.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:51 PM) What does that have to do with the law of averages? Its pure statistical fact that the twins are above the mean with RISP. Simple, there have been plenty of analyses done over the last 10-15 years showing how many times team from the bottom and 3rd quartile have made the playoffs in MLB. The odds aren't very high. Beyond the Marlins, A's and Twins, it hasn't happened at all. That also is a statistical fact. Payroll doesn't guarantee the Yankees a championship, or the Dodgers, or the Mets, but it doesn't give them an exponentially BETTER opportunity to make it.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:47 PM) Really Danks, Juan Castro? Here we go again...thanks, Danks. Where is everyone around here, watching the DNC, lol?

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:42 PM) The Twins are good, but c'mon. Baseball logic tells you they won't hit above .300 with RISP. Baseball logic also tells you that teams with middle or lower-tier payrolls in small markets shouldn't win 5 of 7 division championships against big-market teams like Chicago and Detroit. Heck, CLE was a "big market" team in the way they operated until Dolan took over. Four consecutive fastballs to a .181 hitter at 90-91 mph. The announcers for BALT claimed they could hit one at the batting cage if they just kept seeing fastball after fastball at the same speed, lol.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:40 PM) How well did Uribe hit that ball? Routine. Where are the Uribe haters, lol? I have a hard time imagining they would walk Swisher to face Crede, lol. Maybe, anything's possible. It is also possible the Red Sox could overtake the Rays and they could fall back to the Sox and Twins.

QUOTE (SoxFanForever @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:16 PM) Athleticism is great. However, so is production. Our left fielder has more home runs than all 4 of those outfielders combined and almost has more RBI than 3 of them combined. Let's not take a dump on our guys. I didn't say anything about our outfield, Quentin's obviously a good athlete and Dye one was. It's simply that the Twins have a knack for making the huge plays when they really need them to stay within hailing distance of the Sox. Just when you think the White Sox might have turned the corner and could put the Twins in the rearview mirror, they reverse the momentum on us. Who knows, maybe Cleveland will go on a 40-1 run, lol. We can cite the numbers of Ordonez, Thomas, Lee, Valentin, etc., and production from 2001-2004 and what did that get the Sox? The Twins are always better than the sum of all their individual parts, the White Sox seem to be better on paper/statistically/talent-wise and yet the Twins play better as a team.

The baseball gods I think are against the Sox today. The rule that says don't assume you get an automatic win with your best pitcher when the guy has a 7+ ERA. Konerko's bat-speed and confidence are coming back, 94 MPH fastball turned around quickly. At any rate, the M's starter had an ERA close to 8 and held the Twins to only 3 runs in 7 IP. So, for some reason, I'm not EXPECTING the White Sox to destroy Liz like they should.

If the Twins get into the playoffs and we don't, I'm going to blame Denard Span. Of course, the guy's a rookie, so we have to deal with him for five more years at least. Why is it that the Twins always seem to have a boatload of athletic outfielders? First, there was Shannon Stewart, Hunter and J. Jones. Now, they have D. Young, Span, Carlos Gomez, Kubel and Cuddyer.

QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:05 PM) game over, 6-5. That was a bad 3-0 pitch for Ibanez to be swinging at, low and away. I was really hoping Beltre would get another chance to hit a walk-off homer, for the second consecutive day. Ibanez is now 0 for 6 lifetime against Nathan, but I suppose it was a good chance that he might hit another homer...but he should have laid off of the pitch if it wasn't in his wheelhouse.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 04:51 PM) Pinch runner thrown out at home by Span to end the inning....still 6-5 twins going into the 9th Span is doing everything for them! Ironic, the PR was former White Sox infielder Tim Hulett's son Tug who was thrown out at the plate. Unfortunately, it wasn't Rodney McCray or Usain Bolt's son that was running for the M's.

He won the game out there last time by taking a home run away with a leaping catch of a Beltre blast to RF that would have been a go-ahead homer. Now he's shifted the momentum again (both times after two losses by the Twins) and I think the Twins will go on to win this game now. That guy is so much better that Cuddyer defensively, it's incredible. Well, at least the line-up is turned over and Ichiro will leadoff against Nathan to start the bottom of the 9th. Wish the Mariners wouldn't have used Green in the 8th. He has been HORRIBLE/TERRIBLE/Boone Logan-esque the 2nd half this season.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...sp&c_id=mlb Boras strikes again. I can't say that I am surprised, but all this drama over $200,000 out of a $6 million contract. The time lost this season will hurt him a lot with the Pirates' FO, and the fans will take a while to warm up to such tactics, as they've been bad for so long in PITT, they can get used to almost anything happening now to their team.

I suppose stranger things have happened. You're right, there's not much of a difference between 11.5 and 9 games back. However, the composition (especially rotation-wise) and the depth of the offensive production are very different compared to 2005. I will say this, if I was an Indians' fan, it would drive me nuts to keep coming up short when arguably they had the teams to make the playoffs in 2005, 2006 and now this season. How nervous do you think Shapiro is that the Indians will get even closer and it will start getting argued that they would have made the playoffs based on CC Sabathia's Milwaukee results, along with having Byrd and Blake on the team?

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 11:07 AM) Cleveland also has a very easy schedule until September 15th. They have 7 against KC, 4 against BAL, and 3 against SEA during that span. The only team with a winning record that they play is us for 3. They may be a lot closer in the division around the 15th. Well, at least the Twins have 3 games AT Cleveland and not at home, if that's any small comfort? With Sabathia, they're not quite as scary. Of course, you don't ever want to face Lee or Carmona when they're dealing. I just don't see any realistic way they can get back in it from where they're at without CC and Byrd in the rotation...not to mention they dealt Blake, too.

Saw where Roberts, Mora and Huff all cleared waivers. I guess it would have been hard to take on Roberts this year (we would have had to give up Poreda for sure, and more), because then you have to move Ramirez to SS or DH Roberts and take Thome out of the line-up. However, he would be nice to have NEXT year. But it would be a tremendously expensive (like the Swisher deal) trade for the White Sox in terms of future talent.

It is funny. The Twins' fans are always mentioning Quentin, Dye, Thome, etc., hitting so many home runs...how they really lack that true power hitter in the middle of the line-up, with Mauer being a great "pure" doubles hitter and Morneau a great "rbi" guy but perhaps not a consistent 30-40 homer player. I did see an interesting statistic, I think out of their last 2-3 weeks of games, they had only had one that was decided by more than 2 runs either way. This bodes well for the White Sox, because their hot hitting with RISP and their bullpen are two big factors in winning the close games. Both have been failing them (or at least inconsistent) for the better part of 3 weeks now. White Sox fans say similar things.... 1) We can't hit lefties, rookies or no-name junk/garbage pitchers 2) Ozzie plays the bench too much (haven't heard that much this year!) 3) Ozzie, like Gardenhire according to Twins' fans, plays favorites too much (or turns on players that don't seem to fit the Twins' mold, like Lamb, who was just released)...the Twins have actually wasted quite a bit of money on Lamb, Craig Monroe, Juan Rincon, Livan Hernandez, etc. It's not like the Twins' GM to waste $15 million dollars of a fairly low payroll 4) White Sox play dumb baseball 5) Our fifth starter sucks 6) Griffey/Konerko/Cabrera/Swisher suck to varying degrees 7) Why doesn't KW get more help for the bullpen 8) We're too slow, too old, can't bunt, can't advance runners, can't create or manufacture runs, hit too many homers, etc.

Heard an interesting rumor that Minnesota blocked a trade that we wanted to make for LHP Alan Embree (former Sox pitcher, most connected to the Indians)...interesting. Not sure if we had a chance at blocking them in return when the issue of Guardado came up, probably the Twins were behind us at the time and so would have had the chance to make the claim before the Sox. The Twins' problem isn't "loogys" Reyes/Breslow (both have been quite solid), as apparently the plan is for Guardado to become their primary 8th inning set-up man for Nathan in light of Crain's and Guerrier's recent struggles.

I saw in the Tribune that Poreda and Beckham were going. Any word on the four others (2 pitchers/2 position players)? Maybe this was mentioned at SoxTalk, although it seems like it is more of a minor league topic to me.

I don't have a strong feeling either way. For the last couple of months, the division has been up for grabs and neither the Twins or the Sox have been able to get any breathing room. Whatever happens, I think both teams would be well-prepared (like in 2005) for hitting the playoffs running. Teams like Anaheim or the 2001 Mariners have typically had more difficult times "turning it on" when they've had comfortable division leads for months and nothing really to play for but home field advantage. The White Sox obviously have the best chance to go far in the playoffs if the timing is right, but it's hard to argue against the Twins from a logic standpoint, because they always seem to defy it. Even when the Twins have been losing recently, their pitching has almost always kept them in games or given the bullpen the lead. Thankfully, our starting pitching has picked it up a notch or two the last couple of weeks. Things were looking bleak...like 2nd half 2006 all over again. It has been a fun ride so far this season, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. The skeptic in me says Twins, but I'll try to remain optimistic. However, listening to Coop talk about Linebrink on the pre-game show yesterday, I just don't get the feeling there is a tremendous amount of confidence he can make it back and be an effective/reliable contributor. Which means we're left relying on Carrasco and hoping Dotel can get the ship righted and that Thornton and Jenks don't break down from overuse the final month. You know Ozzie will be tempted to start going to Jenks earlier and earlier. Fortunately, the Twins have the same exact problems with Cain, Guerrier, Reyes and Guardado.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 02:07 AM) Liriano better find some better stuff; he'll walk through these lineups with absolutely no power, but teams that actually hit power pitchers - ala the Sox - could destroy him. Since coming back, he's faced the M's twice, the A's, the Royals, and the Indians. The M's, A's, and Royals are the 3 worst offenses in the AL and the Indians are a middle of the pack offensive squad. He just doesn't look as good as he did in 2006 and I didn't see anything in his stuff that screamed "ace." If anything, it looks like he's being helped by his reputation, his delivery, and gutsiness or guile or craftiness...he's not the same pitcher he was, and even though he has a 1.21 ERA since coming up, I see that going way, way up. He's still a good pitcher but I just don't see his spot in the rotation being the automatic victory that it has been since forever. In their lineup tonight, the M's had Betancourt, Balentien, Johjima, Burke, and Cairo; all 5 players have OPS's under .650. In all honesty, there might be guys on this board who could get some of those guys out, so Liriano should be able to do that as well. It was interesting to see Steady Eddie come back and pitch a perfect 8th. Amazing, the M's have handed two blown saves to Nathan at Safeco in the span of 3 weeks. How many times have we come back to beat Joe since he's been the closer? Once? Twice? I remember one game I think we tied it off him but lost it again somehow? Would have been amusing if they had been successful in getting Hawkins, too. As far as Liriano goes, the Indians' offense right now would be a good test for him again. Unfortunately, the Twins schedule from here on out is as bereft of home games as it is quality opponents. I do have hope for this reason, sometimes youngsters coming up in September for doormats can make huge impacts on the race, because they have a lot of motivation to play as well as possible against the best teams in the league...to prove something to their managers for 2009. We've managed to get 3 wins in a row from the fifth starter's spot. I don't think anyone would have predicted that when Jose went down against BOS. The Mariners really made me nervous...Lopez messed up two bunt attempts (he was the one that broke through against Nathan to give MIN the lead previously) and then fouled off about 5 pitches and hit a ball where it should have been a disaster (pulled to left side instead of pushing to 2nd) but Beltre did the ole Bartlett trick and screened Punto from the ball in the hole. Then Clement hit into a DP, but scored the tying run. Worst of all, then HOF announcer Dave Niehaus said "RA Dickey will come in for Putz next inning and I about lost my breakfast (it was morning in Thailand time)!!!" But he got out of the subsequent inning 1-2-3. Two things, Crain's definitely not going to pitch for at least one game (of course, we might have to use Thornton or Dotel as closer tomorrow...or even Carrasco)...and any day when Clayton Richard and Liriano both start and we don't lose ground, that's a net positive, although a QUentin HR to end the first game would have been sweet. Probably would have gone out in Comiskey. Oh, well. Now the only thing we have to worry about is who is going to close tomorrow, if we get into that position. And the Twins have now lost 3 in a row and maybe a few doubts (after losing 3 of their last 4 in Seattle) are starting to creep into their heads. (Of course, I said that after the M's won the first two out there 3 weeks ago and MIN responded with a fury).