ILMOU

QUOTE (flavum @ Mar 14, 2014 -> 09:21 AM) http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/get-yo...-today-3-pm-csn Opening Day lineup, or just maximizing Beckham's AB's? I'm so ready for Beckham to be gone. Yep. But we'll have to wait 3-4 more months, I'm pretty sure. And why are we still wasting time with Axe? Enough already. EDIT: cause it's divisional opponent and we don't want to show them EJohnson, who's pitching in a Minors camp game today.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Mar 14, 2014 -> 06:05 AM) I thought Trayce would go to Charlotte instead of B'ham. Hopefully, he'll spend the 2nd half of the season there. Don't mind that they're waiting for him to show more offensively, before "challenging" him. Could Hahn be instituting a less aggressive philosophy in this regard? OT, but who do you think will be the Rox CF on opening day? I'm thinking Stubbs, and thinking I'm not going to like his offense a whole lot. Having Cargo in CF would have allowed better flexibility, but I guess I kinda understand the reasoning.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 07:39 PM) It will be difficult finding enough power at the other positions to win at The Cell with that configuration. No. RF, 3B, 1B, DH and C can be plenty of power. Just depends on who we put there, and we may have 3 of these 5 positions covered already. LF can go either way, granted, but I think pitching and defense are our meal ticket when we're very good again (2016, maybe 2015), so I want a fast outfield, even in our park. Yes, I know we hit a lot of dingers in '05. Different era.

QUOTE (Jake @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 10:55 PM) Much, much higher bust risk with Baez. He could potentially never start in the MLB at this point with that K rate and atrocious defense. Bryant has every bit as much ceiling and is ready enough that he'll at least get a very long MLB trial run. I disagree. Time will tell. I'll give you he may have a higher floor than Baez.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 04:27 PM) Most people see Eaton as the Sox leadoff hitter for years but I see Micah Johnson with Eaton batting 2nd. Now that will be a great top 2. I'm greedier still and looking for an 8-9-1-2 of Anderson, May, Eaton and Micah (in whatever order works best) in a few years. Speed to BURN/fantastic range.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 02:38 PM) Baez needs to find a position. He is not a middle infielder His butt is already bigger than every shortstop in MLB, possibly excepting Tulo. That won't play there.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 02:58 PM) sweet play by micah johnson. can't wait to see him up with the big club some day. He's making all the plays, getting on base a ton. What's not to like? I consider myself neither a lover or a hater, but wondering if he's changing some minds in camp.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 10:38 AM) They want him here now, however lots of stuff has to happen for that to be reality. Well, Kepp going to the DL can't hurt, what else needs to happen? You've already bummed me out about Davidson.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 10:20 AM) Very interesting ideas. Regarding #1 and #3, they usually get around this by using linear weights. So the value of the extra base is the average run value of the event in all possible situations, weighted by frequency of occurrence. I would guess that the difference in baserunning movement between a single and a double is negligible. RUnners in scoring position will score anyway, except in a few instances of a short or infield single, and scoring from first on a double is probably similarly rare. Further mitigating factors would be the amount of "stress" added to the pitcher (your factor #2) for having to worry about the runner on first before he steals. No idea how to quantify this, but I'd guess that the combination would make the gap between the single/SB and the double much smaller, maybe even negligible. I'm wondering if a simple "start" to something like this would be to add SB to a players Total Bases, and then calculate SLG as you normally would. This new Stan Bahnsen Slugging Percentage (sbSLG) wouldn't totally account for the #1 factor, but if I'm right that the difference is small, it might be a good approximation. As good, at least, as OPS as a proxy for wOBA, I'd think. Pitchers throws to 1B for "keeping runners close" vs. "real pickoff attempt" also intrigues me. Should the hard throw required for the "real pickoff attempt" be added to pitch count, or at least part of it? Also, the "real pickoff attempt" seems to be a high-error-% play, with the 1B trying to catch an errant throw while the baserunner dives back toward the base. And it's often a two-base error as the ball heads into right field. But perhaps the 2006 WS is still too fresh in my mind. The more you drill down, the more you realize how complex the game is. Which is neat for us geeks.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:55 AM) Well, Gordon Beckham really does suck. He also has a big head with a tiny, squished face. He looks kind of like I'm on acid. Good one. "admiring the shape of his skull" is my favorite line in Fear and Loathing.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 07:57 AM) Yeah, that's true, but that's primarily due to the contract. I just don't see where you get off thinking that Viciedo has a lot of value. The Sox don't need to trade him, given the investment they've made, but he has not been good. Call me crazy, but the Trumbo trade gives me hope for Tanks possible value, without requiring miraculous improvement.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) It sort of makes sense if you think that the record of the team significantly affects the voting. If so, Buccholz would get a ton of bonus points simply by being the best pitcher on the reigning champs. Despite Scherzer's win last year, this effect is lessening. But it will be continue to be a factor when things are really close among a group of candidates.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:49 AM) Adam Dunn would be a good fat waitress at Applebees. Then he could add a little TexMex to spice up some of that "veteran wisdom" he's so great for. I don't think I want Dunn giving advice to anyone on this team. He'll be playing one in his next movie. That's the "Image of the Day" TUC, kudos. QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:26 AM) Someone needs to put that on greg775's profile. I like it as a sig.

I would like to start a discussion about working baserunning statistics into other more commonly used stats, rather than a conversion to Runs and ultimately WAR. Specifically, I'd like to see baserunning applied to slugging percentage, a stat that resonates across generations. The idea is this: A single plus a stolen base is a certain % of a Double, a double plus a stolen base is a certain % of a triple, etc. Neglecting the effects of pitchers' pick-off throws, distraction to pitchers/distraction to hitters that a basestealing threat causes, the factors I've thought of so far that would determine the percentages are as follows: 1. The value of a stolen base after a single is less valuable than a double because a single moves baserunners less than a double, therefore yielding fewer RBI. How much value does this remove? 2. The value of a stolen base after a single is less valuable than a double also because the stolen base always happens later in the inning than the single did. This brings in a different type of base stealing efficiency in that not only does the success % matter, but also how many pitches to home plate were required before the SB took place. Just as a leadoff double is more likely to cross home plate than a two out double, the lesser the portion of the inning that transpires during the SB process the more valuable the SB is. This factor can easily be determined by looking at a single pitch as a typical portion of an inning. A single pitch is probably something like 1/18th or 1/20th, 5 or 5.5% 3. Similarly, how many outs are left in the inning when the SB or CS takes place, affects the value of each. 4. How to account for SB's added to a walk, within this framework. And there's countless other factors, that I undoubtedly haven't considered. Like many of you, I'll ballpark ratios in my head, such as K/BB for pitchers just by eyeballing the raw core numbers. Hypothetically, let's say Eaton steals 40 bases this year and gets caught 10 times for a clean 80%. 20 successful steals while being caught 10 times would have put him at the 66% threshold (roughly 2/3rds), leaving 20 SB's to the positive. Multiplying that 20 by the percentage determined from the factors described above yields a number that can be added to total bases, and an easy modification of slugging. No solutions here, just spitballin'. And if all this exists already, well, I'm a goof , but I want the saber movement to evolve toward the most accessible stats whenever possible.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 09:12 PM) I'm feeling really good about Micah Johnson. Just something about him. I'm on this train also. But I'll be a lot more confident in this projection, depending on how he starts the MiLB season, likely in B'Ham. With the decline of slugging/steroid usage (won't say the end of steroid-era, because, imo, it never will truly die), according to the numbers, a current stolen base success rate of ~66-67% or higher is a net benefit to the team. This is down from a peak of ~78-80% at the height of the Steroid Era, and, imo, will lead to a sea change of far greater valuation of the speed tool, dovetailing as well with the idea that Speed~=Defense/low BABIP against. A volume base stealer like Micah, if he can succeed at 80%, will accrue numerous extra bases beyond that 66% threshold. I would like to see a speed-modified slugging % become common sabr-lingo, for a number of reasons, including the general knowledge of Slugging % that exists among a broader base of fans. Apologies if such stats are available, but regardless, it seems that other, and more confusing, baserunning stats are currently in vogue. I'll be taking this to the Sabr thread soon, as I have a bit more to say about it. The good news is the system has several potential high-volume base stealers who could be legit prospects, perhaps more than most other teams, and I'm wondering/hoping that we're getting ahead of trend that is not quite fully upon us yet.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 07:21 AM) Since arriving to the White Sox with much fanfare on a four-year, $56 million free-agent deal before the 2011 season, Dunn has been one of the most polarizing figures in franchise history. Polarizing among the fan base, that is, as the always upbeat 6-foot-6, 285-pounder has been the consummate teammate. He also has handled adversity better than one person could be expected in taking on such a fairly constant burden. Uh, Scott, polarizing implies that their are strong opinions on both the like and dislike sides of the equation. I'm pretty sure only relative shades of dislike exist for Donkey among the fanbase. The sad state of pseudo-journalism.

Has him at 12/1, sounds reasonable. http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/oddsma...young-candidate But Buccholz at 10/1 is patently ridiculous - those are the odds that he'll make 20 starts in any season for the rest of his career.

QUOTE (glangon @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 05:02 AM) If Keppinger isn't right, he needs to start on the DL. When he is right and has rehabbed and proven his arm is ok, then we bring him up and play him. Not before. This does simplify the issue short-term, I see Davidson starting in AAA, Gillaspie as starting 3rd baseman and Semien as utility back up (barring a Beckham trade) Semien showed more than Leury Garcia last season and can play 3rd base, Short Stop and 2nd Base. Unless we do manage to trade De Aza or Tank, they will platoon at left field and JoDa will start in AAA. Which leaves the catcher, it looks like the job is Flowers with Nieto as back up (rule 5 rules (unless a trade is made)) and Phegley starting in AAA I keep reading this, and it really needs clarification, imo. If we don't deal one of DV/ADA before the season, I'd like to avoid the word platoon, as it implies, to many, AB's based on opposite handedness. I sincerely hope that this is NOT the plan, because the guy who we hope still has a lot of upside did not have any more issues with RHP than LHP in 2013. His relative suckage was non-discriminatory. If they're both still here 3/31, DV needs to be getting MOST of the AB's in LF, even though most pitchers are obviously righty. ADA will get plenty of AB's backing up all three positions, and playing LF a little more often, plus D replacement, while trying DV at DH on occasion, perhaps.

I think Baez will be an absolute superstar. I think he'll make enough adjustments to keep a reasonable K rate. Though the pitch he hit last night was about as meaty as meatballs get. Bryant, OTOH, while having only a slightly higher K rate in MiLB, looks like he could be a K machine in MLB. Not completely sold on that one.

I don't think this will affect Davidson either way.

QUOTE (Jake @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 05:44 PM) He's just been hurt and they intentionally put pitchers they don't care about in late innings in ST because they don't mind if a guy like Molina's pysche gets hurt from blowing a save True, and it's another reason he has no business on the 40 man.

Well, Molina getting too many chances to show he's not the bust we know he is. And we all know why. I look forward to the next fluff piece talking about the great strides he's making as a reliever.

QUOTE (GallonsOfSemien @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 04:22 PM) Where was Semien this game? He has been milky and smooth this Spring! That was the A material, I'll assume. Welcome!

Not too horrible for FP. 3 IP, 5H/1XBH 5K/0BB, 2ER

Paulino struggling early again